What do Irish voters want from and think of their politicians?

This chapter assesses how the record-breakings levels of electoral flux in 2016 may have impacted on attitudes towards representative politics in Ireland. First, it examines voter attitudes to the role of TDs (MPs) in 2016. The Irish tradition of high degrees of localism in representative politics is based on the strong attachment of Irish voters to a constituency orientation from their politicians. The analysis shows that this remains as strong as ever. There are, however, some changes in how voters make contact with their elected representatives – the second theme dealt with in this chapter. The intensity (or degree) of contact is resilient, but its form is shifting to more impersonal or virtual means of contact (especially among younger voters): the days of the ‘weekly clinic’ – that classic mainstay of representative politics in Ireland – may be numbered. Finally, the chapter examines what Irish voters thinks of their politicians overall – this latter theme referencing ongoing international debates about the emergence of populist attitudes. The evidence from the Irish case is a pretty positive one, with many voters indicating a favourable disposition towards their politicians – though this is not universal.

Party or candidate?

This chapter examines the significance of candidates in Irish elections. The act of voting is often judged to be party-centred, but in Ireland it is generally seen as taking place through the prism of candidates: parties select their candidates with care to take account of that; candidate-centred behaviour is also shown by the large and growing number of independents elected in recent Irish elections – in record numbers in 2016. The importance of party vs. candidate has been examined in previous studies: this chapter brings the discussion up to date for 2016. The financial crisis had a number of political impacts, and one was to increase the importance of party vis-à-vis candidate in 2011. This was because national issues, that parties are more capable of dealing with than individual candidates, became of greater importance. With the gradual recovery of the Irish economy in the latter half of the tenure of the Fine Gael-Labour coalition, this chapter considers whether this altered the dynamics of party and candidate. The analysis shows that voters have returned to the more familiar habit of candidate-centred ballot choices, though significant party-centred behaviour persists.

Social and ideological bases of voting

This chapter examines the social and ideological bases of voting behaviour in 2016. Referring to the classic debates in the comparative literature on political cleavages and upon earlier empirical investigations of the Irish case, the core question the chapter seeks to answer is whether there may be a strong link between voters’ socio-demographic traits, their broad policy beliefs and their party choice in this election. Building upon a similar study of the 2011 election, which found evidence of the emergence of class-based politics, the analysis on this occasion reveals some interesting trends, particularly relating to Sinn Féin. Its steady rise in electoral support over time has seen it emerge as a major player in Irish party politics, with important implications for how we might view the ideological basis of voting behaviour in Ireland. The analysis in this chapter finds that Sinn Féin’s strong socio-demographic profile (working class, left-wing and in favour of Irish unity) sets it apart from the other major parties, differentiating it in terms that would be familiar in a political cleavage-based analysis.

Party identification in the wake of the crisis: A nascent realignment?

This chapter presents the first dedicated study of party attachment in Ireland in the wake of the economic crisis. Previous research shows that party identification has historically been an important factor in Irish voting behaviour, though – much like in other democracies – it began to decline from the 1980s onwards. This chapter examines how party attachment has evolved in recent elections. The core question it seeks to answer is whether the electoral turbulence in 2011 and 2016 was simply a symptom of a fundamentally dealigned electorate, or whether we are witnessing a realignment in Irish politics. In other words, has the number of floating voters increased in the wake of the crisis, or have people begun to form new party attachments that are likely to shape elections in the future? The analysis shows that while party attachments were ruptured in 2011 (most notably so in the case of Fianna Fáil), in 2016, by contrast, partisanship increased, and there were some interesting trends among young voters in particular, with many of them beginning to form new allegiances.

Ideological dimensions in the 2016 elections

This chapter evaluates the extent to which ideology may now matter more in Irish elections than before. It does so by analysing the relationship between the ideological positions of parties and vote choice, and by developing a dimensional mapping of ideological space based on rankings in the mock ballots. The principal conclusion is that while it may still be the case that ideology does not play a lead role in Irish politics, perhaps now it might be seen at least as ‘a supporting actor’. It remains the case that ideological positioning does not separate the two largest Irish parties, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil; however, ideology does determine whether someone might vote for either or neither of these parties. On average Irish voters select parties that are ideologically close to them on a left-right scale, most prominently so for voters on the left of the spectrum where left vs. right does matter in their choice between parties. Overall, from a comparative perspective the Irish case may appear more conventional in terms of left-right competition than typically assumed; it also has an undercurrent of anti-globalisation that is similar to that found in other European states.

Political fragmentation on the march: Campaign effects in 2016

This chapter concentrates on when voters make their voting decisions paying particular attention to the campaign period. It starts by arguing that knowing when decisions are made is a vital part of understanding how elections work. The evidence presented demonstrates that a growing proportion of voters report making their final vote choice during election campaigns. Modern election campaigns with their manifesto launches, party leader debates and intense scrutiny of opinion polls matter a great deal. These campaigns work by raising awareness of new parties and candidates and providing vital information on the policy positions of competing actors. The analysis reveals that they are decisive in shaping voter decisions. Young people, women and urban voters are more likely to arrive at their final vote choice during the campaign period and importantly, voters who decide during the campaign are also more likely to have changed their preference from the previous election. These findings have important implications for the political system. They provide further evidence of the challenges parties face in building long term allegiance among their voters. Furthermore, it is also clear that election results may become more unpredictable as larger proportions of voters arrive at their final decision close to election day, making early campaign opinion polls more problematic as predictors of final outcomes.

Why did the ‘recovery’ fail to return the government?

This chapter seeks to explain a significant puzzle of the 2016 election. There is now a very extensive literature linking economic performance with the electoral performance of government parties, with the relationship being a positive one. The 2016 election was an unusual illustration of a government being punished despite being able to point to a record of very significant economic growth and rapidly falling unemployment as Ireland’s recovery from the economic crash and bailout made it such a good example of the success of ‘austerity’ policies. Drawing on many studies that argue for certain contingencies in the relationship, this chapter explores a number of ways in which the good economy-government returned to office relationship went wrong. A key finding, contrary to general tendencies in the literature on economic voting, is that ‘pocketbook’ considerations were very significant in determining how voters felt about the government parties. The chapter offers some reasons why the Irish case is unusual and also questions the theoretical bases on which ‘pocketbook’ voting is downplayed in the economic voting literature.

Mining the ballot: Preferences and transfers in the 2016 election

This chapter 2 makes use of mock ballot data gathered in an exit poll of voters as they were leaving the polling station. This allows a unique analysis of voting behaviour in Ireland’s unusual single transferable vote electoral system. The chapter examines the stability in first preference voting behaviour in 2016 and how this has changed since before the financial crisis. The chapter also explores the patterns of lower preferences and what they might mean for the party system. Finally, it addresses whether preferences mattered in terms of the number of seats a party won in 2016. The analysis shows that the erosion of party allegiances that were so evident in the 2011 election have continued. Even though the worst of the financial crisis had abated, large numbers of voters continued to switch votes from one party to another in 2016. Second, there is the intriguing finding of the emergence of two parallel party systems in terms of the transfer of voter preferences, with voters on the right transferring votes between the main established parties while those on the left transferring between non-established parties.

Popularity and performance? Leader effects in the 2016 election

This chapter addresses the importance of leadership effects in 2016. It assesses the impact of the leaders of the four main parties (Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Labour and Sinn Féin) in influencing the vote for their parties. Overall, the chapter finds some evidence that party leadership mattered in this election, but not a lot. The Fianna Fáil leader, Micheál Martin, was the most popular of the leaders yet this did not translate into significant additional votes for his party. By contrast, the leaders of Fine Gael (Enda Kenny) and Sinn Féin (Gerry Adams), though less popular, were better at influencing the turnout of their base of supporters.

Ireland’s post-crisis election

This chapter sets the scene for the chapters that follow. We start by presenting a short background to the 2016 Irish general election – the most dramatic election in modern times and the first since Ireland’s emergence from the Great Recession. The chapter starts by describing the features of the 2016 Irish National Election Study (INES), a unique data set on Irish voter behaviour gathered by the Irish political science community (and the fourth such study since 2002). We then outline the key themes addressed in the book, relating to: changing partisan identities, issue mobilization, ideological dimensions, party system change, populism and generational effects. This is followed by an overview of each of the chapters.