Mining the ballot: Preferences and transfers in the 2016 election

Author(s):  
Kevin Cunningham

This chapter 2 makes use of mock ballot data gathered in an exit poll of voters as they were leaving the polling station. This allows a unique analysis of voting behaviour in Ireland’s unusual single transferable vote electoral system. The chapter examines the stability in first preference voting behaviour in 2016 and how this has changed since before the financial crisis. The chapter also explores the patterns of lower preferences and what they might mean for the party system. Finally, it addresses whether preferences mattered in terms of the number of seats a party won in 2016. The analysis shows that the erosion of party allegiances that were so evident in the 2011 election have continued. Even though the worst of the financial crisis had abated, large numbers of voters continued to switch votes from one party to another in 2016. Second, there is the intriguing finding of the emergence of two parallel party systems in terms of the transfer of voter preferences, with voters on the right transferring votes between the main established parties while those on the left transferring between non-established parties.

Author(s):  
Erik S. Herron

Scholarship on the classification, origins, incentives, and consequences of mixed-member electoral systems has matured, especially over the last two decades. While mixed-member electoral systems (also known as mixed electoral systems) have been in constant use since Germany adopted a mixed-member proportional system for assembly elections following World War II, researchers did not begin to fully probe the implications of this electoral system until its expansion across the globe beginning in the 1990s. Mixed-member electoral systems share an important characteristic: voter preferences are translated into outcomes by at least two allocation formulas applied in the same election. While voters typically receive a ballot to select a representative in a constituency (often using first-past-the-post) and a ballot to select a party list (often using a form of proportional representation (PR)), the institutional features of mixed-member systems vary substantially. A crucial distinction among mixed-member systems is whether or not seat allocation in the constituency and proportional representation tiers is linked (mixed-member proportional, or MMP) or unlinked (mixed-member majoritarian, or MMM). Across the universe of mixed-member systems, one finds additional differences in the number of ballots voters receive; the electoral formulas and thresholds used to determine winners; the proportion of seats allocated to each component; the ability of candidates to contest seats in both components during the same election; and other critical aspects of the rules. Scholarship classifying mixed-member systems has highlighted different aspects of the rules to sort them into categories. A substantial amount of scholarship on mixed-member systems has emphasized the debate about the incentives that the systems generate. The “controlled comparison” approach treats the components as if they are independent from one another and the “contamination effects” approach treats the components as if they are interdependent. These competing schools of thought generate different expectations, with the former generally anticipating compliance with Duverger’s propositions and the latter anticipating divergence. Subsequent scholarship has been split about which approach better explains observed behavior. However, many of the perceived differences between the approaches may be artificial, generated by extreme interpretations of the theoretical expectations that lack appropriate nuance. In other words, it may be inappropriate to treat this scholarship as strictly dichotomous. The extant literature on mixed-member systems evaluates data from surveys, interviews, personnel files, roll-call voting, and election returns to understand the behavior of voters, candidates, parties, and legislators. It assesses how the incentives of mixed-member systems contribute to outcomes such as the party system, descriptive representation, and policy decisions. It also explores the presence or absence of a “mandate divide”: the expectation that members of parliament (MPs) selected in the constituency component might behave differently than their counterparts in the party list component. The research is often cross-national, but studies of certain countries with mixed-member systems predominate: Germany, Japan, and New Zealand among established democracies, and central or east European countries among transitional societies. The literature presents many opportunities to generate more nuanced theory, explore different research methodologies (e.g., experimental work), and extend spatial coverage to under-studied countries.


Author(s):  
David Denver ◽  
Mark Garnett

This chapter examines the closely fought elections of 2010 and 2015, the first of which produced the first British coalition government since 1945 in a period which saw the continued fragmentation of the party system and the rise of United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) and the Scottish National Party (SNP).Gordon Brown succeeded Tony Blair as Prime Minister in 2007, and initially impressions were favourable. However, almost as soon as Brown had decided against a ‘snap’ election to exploit his popularity, events turned against him and his party. The worldwide global financial crisis, which began in 2007, hit Britain particularly hard, and like Major’s Conservatives in the previous decade New Labour lost its reputation for economic competence. The Conservatives, under David Cameron who proclaimed himself ‘the heir to Blair’, won the largest number of seats in the 2010 election, which was particularly noteworthy for the introduction of televised leader debates. However, the 2010 contest resulted in a ‘hung parliament’ and a coalition between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. The key events of the ensuing five years are examined, including the introduction of a Fixed-Term Parliaments Act which purportedly deprived Prime Ministers of the right to call elections at times of their own choosing. There were also referendums of Electoral Reform (2011) and Scottish independence (2014), in which the status quo was upheld without seeming to put an end to either question. In particular, the SNP continued to prosper despite the 2014 result, and in the 2015 general election it won almost all of the Scottish parliamentary seats. In England, UKIP had become a very serious threat both to Labour and the Conservatives, who had imposed unpopular cuts in public expenditure (‘austerity’) in response to the financial crisis. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats had lost much of their electoral appeal during their ill-fated alliance with Cameron’s Conservatives. The overall result of the 2015 election was an overall victory for the Conservatives, but by a margin which left Cameron vulnerable to Eurosceptics within his party.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kurdistan Saeed ◽  
Chawan Salah

This study deals with the electoral systems applied in Iraq after 2003 for the Iraqi Parliament elections. The issue's importance lies in the fact that elections are the legitimate means adopted by modern political systems based on the separation of powers. Therefore, after changing the political system in Iraq in 2003 from a one-party system to a democratic parliamentary system, the permanent constitution of 2005 granted the right to political participation for citizens. Including the right to participate in elections through nomination or candidacy for the Iraqi Council of Representatives, this study examines the electoral systems applied after 2003 and the reasons for the instability of the Iraqi parliament elections on a specific law. The study dealt with the types of electoral systems by focusing on the concept and emergence of elections and the most critical electoral systems adopted by political systems. Furthermore, the electoral systems applied after 2003 in the Iraqi parliament elections by focusing on the electoral laws or their amendments that preceded each electoral cycle since 2003 until now. The study concluded that the electoral system in Iraq was not legally stable; several amendments have been made to the laws regulating the elections for the House of Representatives. So the two elections did not repeat under one law because of political parties' criticism leveled at it. Moreover, the attempt by the large parliamentary blocs, through their control of the Iraqi Council of Representatives, to legislate laws that limit the victory of the blocs and small parties.


Author(s):  
Ian McAllister ◽  
Toni Makkai

Australia is often characterized as “a democratic laboratory,” where a wide variety of electoral systems have been designed and implemented. Australia gave the world “the Australian ballot” (or secret ballot), and it is one of the few countries to operate an enforced system of compulsory voting. This chapter examines the evolution of the electoral systems in the lower House of Representatives and in the upper house, the Senate. Particular attention is given to the design of the Senate electoral system, and to the changes that were implemented at the 2016 election to eliminate the proliferation of “micro parties.” The development of compulsory voting is also outlined, and its consequences for the party system evaluated. Finally, the chapter discusses the major challenges to reform of the electoral system.


Politics ◽  
1996 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter James

The German federal election in October 1994, just four years after German Unity, revealed that clear divisions between east and west Germany still exist. Whilst the PDS on the left of the political spectrum was supported by around one fifth of east German voters, the parties on the right gained negligible support in Germany as a whole. The federal German electoral system, based on a personalised sytem of PR, again played a key role; it is, however still too early in the development of the new Germany to speak of a single new party system.


2012 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy R. Poteete

ABSTRACTThe Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) has maintained a super-majority in the National Assembly for over forty years despite increasingly competitive elections. Several factors contribute to the BDP's continued legislative dominance, including features of the electoral system, fragmentation of the party system, and obstacles to strategic voting behaviour. Factional competition has played a particularly important role. Botswana's political institutions encourage factional competition, and factionalism interacts with the electoral system to hinder consolidation of the party system. Botswana's experience underlines the importance of internal party dynamics and their interaction with features of the electoral and party system in enabling the persistence of legislative dominance in competitive electoral systems.


2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexei A. Gulin

AbstractA review of the stability theory of symmetrizable time-dependent difference schemes is represented. The notion of the operator-difference scheme is introduced and general ideas about stability in the sense of the initial data and in the sense of the right hand side are formulated. Further, the so-called symmetrizable difference schemes are considered in detail for which we manage to formulate the unimprovable necessary and su±cient conditions of stability in the sense of the initial data. The schemes with variable weight multipliers are a typical representative of symmetrizable difference schemes. For such schemes a numerical algorithm is proposed and realized for constructing stability boundaries.


2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 142-156
Author(s):  
A. Yu. Timofeev

The article considers the perception of World War II in modern Serbian society. Despite the stability of Serbian-Russian shared historical memory, the attitudes of both countries towards World wars differ. There is a huge contrast in the perception of the First and Second World War in Russian and Serbian societies. For the Serbs the events of World War II are obscured by the memories of the Civil War, which broke out in the country immediately after the occupation in 1941 and continued several years after 1945. Over 70% of Yugoslavs killed during the Second World War were slaughtered by the citizens of former Kingdom of Yugoslavia. The terror unleashed by Tito in the first postwar decade in 1944-1954 was proportionally bloodier than Stalin repressions in the postwar USSR. The number of emigrants from Yugoslavia after the establishment of the Tito's dictatorship was proportionally equal to the number of refugees from Russia after the Civil War (1,5-2% of prewar population). In the post-war years, open manipulations with the obvious facts of World War II took place in Tito's Yugoslavia. In the 1990s the memories repressed during the communist years were set free and publicly debated. After the fall of the one-party system the memory of World War II was devalued. The memory of the Russian-Serbian military fraternity forged during the World War II began to revive in Serbia due to the foreign policy changes in 2008. In October 2008 the President of Russia paid a visit to Serbia which began the process of (re) construction of World War II in Serbian historical memory. According to the public opinion surveys, a positive attitude towards Russia and Russians in Serbia strengthens the memories on general resistance to Nazism with memories of fratricide during the civil conflict events of 1941-1945 still dominating in Serbian society.


2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (14) ◽  
pp. 143-155
Author(s):  
Eldha Sampepana ◽  
Suroto Hadi Saputra

In the manufacture of detergents still using surfactants (which serves as an emulsifier) of crude oil in the form of the AS. (alcohol sulfate) and LAS (linear alkylbenzene sulfonate), where this type of surfactant cannot be degraded by microorganisms when discharged into the environment, causing environmental pollution. Methyl ester sulfonate surfactant is an anionic surfactant which has a composition of C16 - C18 fatty acids are capable of acting against nature deterjensinya, while the C12 - C14 fatty acids contribute to the foaming effect. The purpose of this study was to look for the formulation of methyl ester sulfonate (MES) the right to produce a good detergent by using materials such as methyl ester sulfonate surfactant self-made, methyl ester sulfonate and sodium lauryl market Ester Sulfate (SLS) with a concentration of 15 %, 20 % and 25 %. Detergent results of the study have high detergency ( net ) compared with the detergency of detergent commercial, have a stable emulsion stability, the stability of the foam/foam detergent power made from methyl ester sulfonate surfactant produces less foam, compared with a detergent made from SLS and surfactant SNI 06-4075-1996 standards.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anat Feldman ◽  
Michael Shmueli ◽  
Dror Dotan ◽  
Joseph Tzelgov ◽  
Andrea Berger

In recent years, there has been growing interest in the development of mental number line (MNL) representation examined using a number-to-position task. In the present study, we investigated the development of number representation on a 0-10 number line using a computerized version of the number-to-position task on a touchscreen, with restricted response time; 181 children from first through sixth grade were tested. We found that the pattern of estimated number position on the physical number line was best fit by the sigmoidal curve function–which was characterized by underestimation of small numbers and overestimation of large numbers–and that the breakpoint changed with age. Moreover, we found that significant developmental leaps in MNL representation occurred between the first and second grades and again between the second and third grades, which was reflected in the establishment of the right endpoint and the number 5 as anchor points, yielding a more accurate placement of other numbers along the number line.


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