scholarly journals QUANTILE PROBABILITY PREDICTIONS: A DEMONSTRATIVE PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF FORECASTS OF US COVID-19 DEATHS

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 139-163
Author(s):  
Mary E. Thomson ◽  
◽  
Andrew C. Pollock ◽  
Jennifer Murray ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Performance Enhancement ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
Forecasting Performance ◽  
Data Points ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Probability Forecasts ◽  
Improved Performance ◽  
Different Sources

An analytical framework is presented for the evaluation of quantile probability forecasts. It is demonstrated using weekly quantile forecasts of changes in the number of US COVID-19 deaths. Empirical quantiles are derived using the assumption that daily changes in a variable follow a normal distribution with time varying means and standard deviations, which can be assumed constant over short horizons such as one week. These empirical quantiles are used to evaluate quantile forecasts using the Mean Squared Quantile Score (MSQS), which, in turn, is decomposed into sub-components involving bias, resolution and error variation to identify specific aspects of performance, which highlight the strengths and weaknesses of forecasts. The framework is then extended to test if performance enhancement can be achieved by combining diverse forecasts from different sources. The demonstration illustrates that the technique can effectively evaluate quantile forecasting performance based on a limited number of data points, which is crucial in emergency situations such as forecasting pandemic behavior. It also shows that combining the predictions with quantile probability forecasts generated from an Autoregressive Order One, AR(1) model provided substantially improved performance. The implications of these findings are discussed, suggestions are offered for future research and potential limitations are considered.

Composite Quantile Probability Predictions: Performance and Coherence Analysis of US COVID-19 Confirmed Infection Cases

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 471-489
Author(s):  
Mary E. Thomson ◽  
Andrew C. Pollock ◽  
Jennifer Murray
Keyword(s):  
Relative Error ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Error Reduction ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Coherence Analysis ◽  
Combining Forecasts ◽  
Independent Information ◽  
Probability Forecasts

An analytical framework is presented for the evaluation of composite probability forecasts using empirical quantiles. The framework is demonstrated via the examination of forecasts of the changes in the number of US COVID-19 confirmed infection cases, applying 18 two-week ahead quantile forecasts from four forecasting organisations. The forecasts are analysed individually for each organisation and in combinations of organisational forecasts to ascertain the highest level of performance. It is shown that the relative error reduction achieved by combining forecasts depends on the extent to which the component forecasts contain independent information. The implications of the study are discussed, suggestions are offered for future research and potential limitations are considered.

scholarly journals A Statistical Review of Alternative Zinc and Copper Extraction from Mineral Fertilizers and Industrial By-Products

2018 ◽  
Vol 101 (1) ◽  
pp. 190-195
Author(s):  
Camila Prado Cenciani de Souza ◽  
Cleide Aparecida de Abreu ◽  
Aline Renée Coscione ◽  
Cristiano Alberto de Andrade ◽  
Luiz Antonio Junqueira Teixeira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Standard Method ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Alternative Methods ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Mineral Fertilizers ◽  
Copper Extraction ◽  
Cu Content ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Different Sources ◽  
By Products

Abstract Rapid, accurate, and low-cost alternative analytical methods for micronutrient quantification in fertilizers are fundamental in QC. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether zinc (Zn) and copper (Cu) content in mineral fertilizers and industrial by-products determined by the alternative methods USEPA 3051a, 10% HCl, and 10% H2SO4 are statistically equivalent to the standard method, consisting of hot-plate digestion using concentrated HCl. The commercially marketed Zn and Cu sources in Brazil consisted of oxides, carbonate, and sulfate fertilizers and by-products consisting of galvanizing ash, galvanizing sludge, brass ash, and brass or scrap slag. The contents of sources ranged from 15 to 82% and 10 to 45%, respectively, for Zn and Cu. The Zn and Cu contents refer to the variation of the elements found in the different sources evaluated with the concentrated HCl method as shown in Table 1. A protocol based on the following criteria was used for the statistical analysis assessment of the methods: F-test modified by Graybill, t-test for the mean error, and linear correlation coefficient analysis. In terms of equivalents, 10% HCl extraction was equivalent to the standard method for Zn, and the results of the USEPA 3051a and 10% HCl methods indicated that these methods were equivalents for Cu. Therefore, these methods can be considered viable alternatives to the standard method of determination for Cu and Zn in mineral fertilizers and industrial by-products in future research for their complete validation.

Academic Events: An Empirically Grounded Typology and Their Academic Impact

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 481-497 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Trøst Hansen ◽  
David Budtz Pedersen ◽  
Carmel Foley
Keyword(s):  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Academic Impact ◽  
Future Research Agenda ◽  
Tourism Studies ◽  
Academic Events ◽  
Business Events ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Analytical Frameworks ◽  
Academic Sector

The meetings industry, government bodies, and scholars within tourism studies have identified the need to understand the broader impact of business events. To succeed in this endeavor, we consider it necessary to develop analytical frameworks that are sensitive to the particularities of the analyzed event, sector, and stakeholder group. In this article we focus on the academic sector and offer two connected analyses. First is an empirically grounded typology of academic events. We identify four differentiating dimensions of academic events: size, academic focus, participants, and tradition, and based on these dimensions we develop a typology of academic events that includes: congress, specialty conference, symposium, and practitioners' meeting. Secondly, we outline the academic impact of attending these four types of events. For this purpose, the concept of credibility cycles is used as an analytical framework for examining academic impact. We suggest that academic events should be conceptualized and evaluated as open marketplaces that facilitate conversion of credibility. Data were obtained from interviews with 22 researchers at three Danish universities. The study concludes that there are significant differences between the events in terms of their academic impact. Moreover, the outcome for the individual scholar depends on the investment being made. Finally, the study calls for a future research agenda on beyond tourism benefits based on interdisciplinary collaborations.

scholarly journals A Review of Monitoring Technologies for Solar PV Systems Using Data Processing Modules and Transmission Protocols: Progress, Challenges and Prospects

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 8120
Author(s):  
Shaheer Ansari ◽  
Afida Ayob ◽  
Molla S. Hossain Lipu ◽  
Mohamad Hanif Md Saad ◽  
Aini Hussain
Keyword(s):  
Data Processing ◽  
Data Transmission ◽  
Performance Enhancement ◽  
Critical Discussion ◽  
Signal Interference ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Transmission Protocol ◽  
Range Data ◽  
Solar Pv ◽  
Monitoring Technologies

Solar photovoltaic (PV) is one of the prominent sustainable energy sources which shares a greater percentage of the energy generated from renewable resources. As the need for solar energy has risen tremendously in the last few decades, monitoring technologies have received considerable attention in relation to performance enhancement. Recently, the solar PV monitoring system has been integrated with a wireless platform that comprises data acquisition from various sensors and nodes through wireless data transmission. However, several issues could affect the performance of solar PV monitoring, such as large data management, signal interference, long-range data transmission, and security. Therefore, this paper comprehensively reviews the progress of several solar PV-based monitoring technologies focusing on various data processing modules and data transmission protocols. Each module and transmission protocol-based monitoring technology is investigated with regard to type, design, implementations, specifications, and limitations. The critical discussion and analysis are carried out with respect to configurations, parameters monitored, software, platform, achievements, and suggestions. Moreover, various key issues and challenges are explored to identify the existing research gaps. Finally, this review delivers selective proposals for future research works. All the highlighted insights of this review will hopefully lead to increased efforts toward the enhancement of the monitoring technologies in future sustainable solar PV applications.

Gender budgeting in public financial management: a literature review and research agenda

2021 ◽  
pp. 002085232110317
Author(s):  
Tobias Polzer ◽  
Isabella M Nolte ◽  
Johann Seiwald
Keyword(s):  
Literature Review ◽  
Financial Management ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Political Agenda ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Need To Evaluate ◽  
Gender Budgeting

Gender budgeting calls for including a gender perspective at all levels of governmental budgetary processes. While the literature on gender budgeting is interdisciplinary and covers a wide geographical range, it remains fragmented. This study uses a literature review to examine the current discourse on gender budgeting and to elicit avenues for future research. Our review shows that studies focus either on emerging economies, such as India or South Africa, or on countries in Europe. Drawing on an analytical framework, we find that most studies scrutinize the ex ante stages of gender budgeting, whereas less is known about the concurrent and ex post stages. Moreover, because little is known about the outcome and impact of gender budgeting, governments do not know what instruments function best in different settings. Given their ex ante focus, most studies on gender budgeting often either remain descriptive or analyse secondary data. Despite scholars from different disciplines contributing to the field of gender budgeting, several ‘blank spots’ remain, particularly in public sector accounting. Points for practitioners While current gender budgeting projects tend to focus on the ex ante stage of gender budgeting, future practitioner attention needs to focus on the equally important concurrent and ex post stages, which have received less attention thus far. An increasing number of governments worldwide are implementing gender budgeting projects. Governments need to evaluate the outcome and impact of these projects in a timely fashion, aiming at reducing structural inequalities related to gender. Gender budgeting is willingly adopted in times of prosperity and stability or when the scope of projects appears manageable. To avoid negative impacts on their achievements, policy makers need to put gender budgeting on the political agenda and institutionalize it in times of instability and crisis.

Cognitive metaphor theories in translation studies: Toward a dual-model parametric approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-52
Author(s):  
Sui He
Keyword(s):  
Translation Studies ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Dual Model ◽  
Conceptual Blending ◽  
Parametric Approach ◽  
Complementary Relationship ◽  
Cognitive Metaphor ◽  
Metaphor Theory ◽  
Two Parameters

Abstract Cognitive metaphor theory provides a systematic framework to better understand the working mechanism of metaphor. Its recent development further allows translation researchers to have a clearer insight into the movement of metaphor across languages and culture. Building on an empirical study, this paper examines the complementary relationship between two prominent cognitive metaphor theories – Conceptual Metaphor Theory (CMT) and Conceptual Blending Theory (CBT), and discusses the practical contribution that this relationship could make to the existing research on metaphor translation. To construct a comparable basis for CMT and CBT, two parameters are adopted for data analysis, which is proven useful to serve the purpose. The two chosen parameters are: projection and provenance, denoting the content and the type of metaphor respectively. Metaphorical expressions analyzed in this paper are sourced from cosmology-themed articles published in Scientific American in 2017 and their Simplified Chinese translations published in Huanqiukexue. Findings show that delineated by the two parameters, CMT and CBT indeed share a complementary relationship owing to their different focuses and organizing mechanisms. Furthermore, the collaboration between CMT and CBT offers a well-rounded analytical framework for translation studies. In turn, the correlation between metaphor parameters and translation solutions provides detailed clues for studying metaphor across culture. Finally, the reflection of this dual-model parametric approach regarding its pros and cons is also shown to shed light on future research.

scholarly journals Manual Therapy in Cervical and Lumbar Radiculopathy: A Systematic Review of the Literature

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (11) ◽  
pp. 6176
Author(s):  
Tomasz Kuligowski ◽  
Anna Skrzek ◽  
Błażej Cieślik
Keyword(s):  
Manual Therapy ◽  
Functional Outcomes ◽  
Web Of Science ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Controlled Trial ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Lumbar Radiculopathy ◽  
Inclusion Criteria ◽  
Randomized Controlled ◽  
The Mean

The aim of this study was to describe and update current knowledge of manual therapy accuracy in treating cervical and lumbar radiculopathy, to identify the limitations in current studies, and to suggest areas for future research. The study was conducted according to PRISMA guidelines for systematic reviews. A comprehensive literature review was conducted using PubMed and Web of Science databases up to April 2020. The following inclusion criteria were used: (1) presence of radiculopathy; (2) treatment defined as manual therapy (i.e., traction, manipulation, mobilization); and (3) publication defined as a Randomized Controlled Trial. The electronic literature search resulted in 473 potentially relevant articles. Finally, 27 articles were accepted: 21 on cervical (CR) and 6 in lumbar radiculopathy (LR). The mean PEDro score for CR was 6.6 (SD 1.3), and for LR 6.7 (SD 1.6). Traction-oriented techniques are the most frequently chosen treatment form for CR and are efficient in reducing pain and improving functional outcomes. In LR, each of the included publications used a different form of manual therapy, which makes it challenging to summarize knowledge in this group. Of included publications, 93% were either of moderate or low quality, which indicates that quality improvement is necessary for this type of research.

scholarly journals A Study of a Sample of Facebook Users Finds They Do Not Seek Political News through Facebook But Are Exposed to Political News through This Medium

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 36-38
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Margaret Stovold
Keyword(s):  
Online Survey ◽  
Online News ◽  
Social Utility ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Political News ◽  
High School Degree ◽  
News Sources ◽  
News Source ◽  
Tv News ◽  
The Mean

A Review of: Schaferm, S., Sulflow, M., & Muller, P. (2017). The special taste of snack news: an application of niche theory to understand the appeal of Facebook as a source for political news. First Monday, 22(4-3). http://dx.doi.org/10.5210/fm.v22i4.7431 Abstract Objective – To investigate Facebook as a source of exposure to political news stories and to compare the reasons for using Facebook as a news source and the gratifications obtained, compared with other news sources. Design – Survey questionnaire. Setting – Facebook. Subjects – 422 German Facebook users. Methods – An online survey was developed to investigate the use of Facebook as a news source compared with other sources. Specific research questions were informed by the ‘theory of niche’ (Dimmick, 2003) which examines the coexistence and competition between different media outlets by examining the breadth, overlap and superiority of one platform over another. The survey was distributed using a ‘snowball’ technique between July and August 2015. The survey was shared by 52 student research assistants on their Facebook profiles. They asked their friends to complete the survey and share it with their own networks. Main results – The mean (M) age of the 422 respondents was 23.5 years (SD=8.25). The majority were female (61%) with a high school degree (89%). TV news and news websites were the most frequently used sources of political news. Facebook ranked third, ahead of newspapers, search engines, magazines, email provider websites, and Twitter. The mean score for the importance of Facebook as a news sources was 2.46 (SD=1.13) on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is low and 5 is high. This fell in the middle of the range when compared with the top ranked source assessed by importance (TV news, M 4.40, SD=0.88) and the lowest (email providers, M 1.92, SD=0.97). Users rarely visited Facebook with the purpose of finding news (M 1.59, SD=0.73). However, they estimated around 24% of the posts they see were concerned with political news, and when encountered, these stories are frequently read (M 3.53, SD=1.18). However, the level of interaction as measured by liking, commenting, sharing or status updates was low (M 1.94 SD=1.09; M 1.37, SD=0.79; M 1.51, SD=0.85 and M 1.4, SD=0.78 respectively). The ‘gratification’ categories where Facebook as a news source scored the highest were for killing time (M 2.97, SD=1.29), entertainment (M 2.92, SD=1.05), and surveillance (M 2.77, SD=1.01). When compared to newspapers and TV news, it was found that Facebook has a lower score for niche breadth, meaning that it serves a specific rather than general news function. Facebook also had a lower overlap score when compared with the other media, thereby performing a complementary function, while TV news and newspapers perform similarly. TV news scored better for providing balanced information, surveillance and social utility while Facebook scored highest for killing time. There was no difference in the category of entertainment. There was a similar picture when comparing Facebook with newspapers. Conclusion – The authors conclude that while users do not actively seek political news through Facebook, they are exposed to political news through this medium. Respondents did not consider the news to be well balanced, and that currently Facebooks’ niche is restricted to entertainment and killing time. The authors note that this may be disappointing for news organisations, but there is potential to expose large audiences to political news when they are not actively seeking it. The findings represent a specific time point in a changing landscape and future research will need to take these changes into account. Comparisons with other online news sources and the use of objective measures to validate self-reported data would be valuable areas for future research.

scholarly journals Plasma mineral (selenium, zinc or copper) concentrations in the general pregnant population, adjusted for supplement intake, in relation to thyroid function

2020 ◽  
Vol 125 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-78
Author(s):  
Victor Pop ◽  
Johannes Krabbe ◽  
Wolfgang Maret ◽  
Margaret Rayman
Keyword(s):  
Thyroid Function ◽  
Reference Range ◽  
First Trimester ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Thyroid Peroxidase ◽  
Reference Ranges ◽  
Lower Plasma ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Supplement Intake

AbstractThe present study reports on first-trimester reference ranges of plasma mineral Se/Zn/Cu concentration in relation to free thyroxine (FT4), thyrotropin (TSH) and thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPO-Ab), assessed at 12 weeks’ gestation in 2041 pregnant women, including 544 women not taking supplements containing Se/Zn/Cu. The reference range (2·5th–97·5th percentiles) in these 544 women was 0·72–1·25 µmol/l for Se, 17·15–35·98 µmol/l for Cu and 9·57–16·41 µmol/l for Zn. These women had significantly lower mean plasma Se concentration (0·94 (sd 0·12) µmol/l) than those (n 1479) taking Se/Zn/Cu supplements (1·03 (sd 0·14) µmol/l; P < 0·001), while the mean Cu (26·25 µmol/l) and Zn (12·55 µmol/l) concentrations were almost identical in these sub-groups. Women with hypothyroxinaemia (FT4 below reference range with normal TSH) had significantly lower plasma Zn concentrations than euthyroid women. After adjusting for covariates including supplement intake, plasma Se (negatively), Zn and Cu (positively) concentrations were significantly related to logFT4; Se and Cu (but not Zn) were positively and significantly related to logTSH. Women taking additional Se/Zn/Cu supplements were 1·46 (95 % CI 1·09, 2·04) times less likely to have elevated titres of TPO-Ab at 12 weeks of gestation. We conclude that first-trimester Se reference ranges are influenced by Se-supplement intake, while Cu and Zn ranges are not. Plasma mineral Se/Zn/Cu concentrations are associated with thyroid FT4 and TSH concentrations. Se/Zn/Cu supplement intake affects TPO-Ab status. Future research should focus on the impact of trace mineral status during gestation on thyroid function.

scholarly journals Coping Styles: A Better Understanding of Stress and Anxiety in Individuals With Autism Spectrum Conditions Through Sport and Exercise Models

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 134-143 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irina Roncaglia
Keyword(s):  
Teaching And Learning ◽  
Coping Styles ◽  
Autism Spectrum ◽  
Autism Spectrum Conditions ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Performance Psychology ◽  
Psychology Literature ◽  
Sport And Exercise ◽  
And Coping ◽  
Different Sources

The aim of this paper is to present an understanding of the coping mechanisms and coping styles adopted by individuals on the Autism Spectrum Conditions (ASC) by looking to draw parallels with sports performance psychology and how different sources of stress and anxiety can lead to the adoption of different coping styles. Firstly, an overview of current understanding of what constitute a stressor and how this can affect an individual is presented from sport and exercise psychology literature. Secondly, a model of coping styles is illustrated with the aim to shed light at how different perceptions of levels of stress and anxiety are managed both on an individual and group level. Thirdly, within the context of this understanding, some examples about how to support individuals on the ASC will be illustrated. Finally, implications for future research and reflection will be presented by highlighting the importance of teaching and learning coping and tolerance skills as part of a comprehensive and holistic psycho-educational program.

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