Cancer in Iran 2008 to 2025: Recent incidence trends and short‐term predictions of the future burden

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and dementia have profound impacts on the morbidity and disability burden in older people. Uncertainty remains regarding the future incidence of these conditions. We forecast future levels of morbidity and disability in England and Wales up to 2040 under two scenarios regarding CVD and dementia future trends. Methods: We developed a probabilistic Markov model (IMPACT-BAM) which follows the transitions of the England and Wales population into health states characterised by the presence or absence of CVD, dementia and disability to 2040. Data sources include national health registers (ONS) and cohort studies (HSE, Whitehall II and ELSA). Modelled CVD and Non-CVD mortality and prevalence trends for disability and morbidity were used to estimate trends in life expectancy (LE), morbidity-free life expectancy (MFLE) and disability-free life expectancy (DFLE). We assumed that CVD incidence and mortality will continue their current trends and modelled two scenarios: Scenario A assumes constant dementia incidence, a common assumption when projecting future burden of dementia; Scenario B assumes 2% annual decline in dementia incidence, as suggested in UK population-based cohorts. Results: In 2011, LE at age 65 was 18.4 years for men and 21.0 years for women. In Scenario A, LE at 65 in 2040 will increase to 26.7 and 24.8 years in men and women. DFLE at 65 will increase (by 5.5 years in men and 2.8 years in women, to 21.7 and 20.7 years respectively). MFLE at 65 will increase slightly (by 1.5 years in men and 1.4 in women, to 10.7 and 13.2 years respectively). Disability prevalence would increase by 3.1% to 14.4% ( 1,081,483 of 7,510,299) in men and decrease slightly (by 0.6% to 14% (1,214,754 of 8,676,813)) in women. In Scenario B, LE at 65 in 2040 will increase to a similar degree as in Scenario A, but DFLE and MFLE will increase faster (DFLE: by 7.5 years in men and 4.6 in women, to 23.7 and 22.5 years respectively; MFLE: by 4.5 years for both genders to 13.8 years in men and 16.3 in women). Disability prevalence will slightly increase (by 0.8% to 12.1% (908,746 of 7,510,299)) in men and decrease by 3.0% to 11.4% (989,157 of 8,676,813) in women. Conclusions: The future disability burden crucially depends on assumptions about future dementia incidence trends. If the dementia incidence continues unchanged, the duration of morbidity and disability will be prolonged. However, if dementia incidence decreases (as suggested in the UK and mirroring CVD declines) we could live more years in good health, with morbidity compressed into a shorter period before death.

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The Future of Muslim Education in the United States: An Agenda for Research

American Journal of Islam and Society ◽

10.35632/ajis.v20i3-4.524 ◽

2003 ◽

Vol 20 (3-4) ◽

pp. 46-82

Author(s):

Fathi Malkawi

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

The United States ◽

American Education ◽

Future Trends ◽

Muslim Community ◽

Short Term ◽

The Future ◽

Muslim Education ◽

Future Plans

This paper addresses some of the Muslim community’s concerns regarding its children’s education and reflects upon how education has shaped the position of other communities in American history. It argues that the future of Muslim education will be influenced directly by the present realities and future trends within American education in general, and, more importantly, by the well-calculated and informed short-term and long-term decisions and future plans taken by the Muslim community. The paper identifies some areas in which a wellestablished knowledge base is critical to making decisions, and calls for serious research to be undertaken to furnish this base.

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Specialist infantry and defence engagement

BMJ Military Health ◽

10.1136/bmjmilitary-2020-001455 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. bmjmilitary-2020-001455 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Jonathan Blair Thomas Herron ◽

K M Heil ◽

D Reid

Keyword(s):

Armed Forces ◽

Short Term ◽

The Future ◽

Uk Government ◽

The Uk ◽

Insight Into

In 2015, the UK government published the National Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR) 2015, which laid out their vision for the future roles and structure of the UK Armed Forces. SDSR 2015 envisaged making broader use of the Armed Forces to support missions other than warfighting. One element of this would be to increase the scale and scope of defence engagement (DE) activities that the UK conducts overseas. DE activities traditionally involve the use of personnel and assets to help prevent conflict, build stability and gain influence with partner nations as part of a short-term training teams. This paper aimed to give an overview of the Specialist Infantry Group and its role in UK DE. It will explore the reasons why the SDSR 2015 recommended their formation as well as an insight into future tasks.

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Comparability and Short-Term Stability of Techniques to Assess Extension of Thinking about One's Personal Future

Perceptual and Motor Skills ◽

10.2466/pms.1983.56.2.559 ◽

1983 ◽

Vol 56 (2) ◽

pp. 559-564 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

William Rakowski ◽

Clifton E. Barber ◽

Wayne C. Seelbach

Keyword(s):

Data Collection ◽

Life Events ◽

Short Term ◽

Life Event ◽

Term Stability ◽

The Future ◽

Changes Over Time ◽

Over Time

Three techniques for assessing extension of one's personal future (line-marking, open-ended report, life-events) were compared in a sample of 74 respondents. Two points of data collection were employed to examine short-term stability. At both administrations, correlations among indices suggested that techniques were only moderately comparable. Short-term stabilities were variable; correlations ranged from .42 to .79. Across subgroups of the sample, the direct, open-ended report of extension showed the greatest stability, while life-event extension showed the least. Apparently, extension of thinking about the future should be assessed by more than one technique to investigate potential relationships with other variables or changes over time in perspective about the future.

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What’s Next?

Zeitschrift für Psychologie / Journal of Psychology ◽

10.1027/0044-3409.217.2.95 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 217 (2) ◽

pp. 95-102 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Theo Herrmann

Keyword(s):

Historical Development ◽

Psychological Research ◽

History Of Psychology ◽

Complex Pattern ◽

Short Term ◽

Historical Changes ◽

The Future ◽

History Of

One cannot predict the future of the sciences or that of psychology. The question “What’s next?” gives reason to think about which principles to which psychology has developed. In analyzing the historical development of psychology, one should differentiate between basic psychological research, psychological technology, and the structure of institutions. Historical changes of psychology occur slowly and continuously. These continuous changes are obviously a foil for short-term changes that we can refer to as discontinuities. The complex pattern of continuities and discontinuities is based on very different conditions. External and internal causes of the changes in the history of psychology are discussed.

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Short term momentum profits and their source: a business indicators’ approach

Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská ekonomika) ◽

10.17221/50/2013-agricecon ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 59 (No. 12) ◽

pp. 563-577

Author(s):

A. Ejaz ◽

P. Polak

Keyword(s):

Stock Markets ◽

Primary Objective ◽

Future Research ◽

Momentum Effect ◽

Short Term ◽

Momentum Profits ◽

The Future ◽

Secondary Objective ◽

Number Of Authors ◽

Starting A Business

The main objective of the paper is to seek the source that can explain the momentum profits because the source of momentum profits has been disputed. The secondary objective of the paper is to affirm the findings of the author about the presence of the short term momentum effect and to reaffirm the notion that CAPM cannot explain the momentum profits supported by a large number of authors. For the primary objective, a set of variables has been chosen, that fall under the category of “Business Indicators”, to explain the momentum profits. It is found that a variable “Starting a Business” could explain the source of the momentum profits whereas other variables may have a negligible or no influence over the momentum profits. It is also reaffirmed that a short term momentum effect has been found in 14 stock markets and the CAPM could not explain the momentum profits. This study is not conclusive due to the limitation of data but it does give a source of the momentum profits and it sheds light on the future research about the sources that can explain momentum profits in a great detail.

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MENEJMEN RISIKO DALAM PERFEKTIF ISLAM

PROMOSI (Jurnal Pendidikan Ekonomi) ◽

10.24127/ja.v5i1.853 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 5 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Supriyo Supriyo

Keyword(s):

Risk Management ◽

Production System ◽

Human Life ◽

Short Term ◽

Islamic Perspective ◽

The Family ◽

The Future ◽

Short Run ◽

A Company

Human life with all its activities in order to meet the needs of life always will always faced the possibility of risk either directly or indirectly, can occur in the short term or long term. A possibility of the occurrence or risk had certainly will affect the activity to be done And adversely affect the economy of a family and even a company, if the risks that occur have a vital impact on the family or an organization. Many failures within a company's organization are due to unforeseen risks occurring as for example the company never thinks that a newly established company is still in the short run abruptly because a workforce lacking control in the production system creates a great fire and spends all and has a bad impact For the economy of a family and even a company, if the risks that occur have a vital impact on the family or an organization. Many failures within a company's organization are due to unforeseen risks occurring as for example the company never thinks that a newly established company is still in the short run abruptly because a workforce lacking control in the production system creates a terrible fire and consumes all the company's assets Newly established. Everyone or anyone else would not want the incident to happen and befall themselves and his business in the future. Keywords: Islamic perspective, Risk management

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Time-conjunctive representations of future events

10.31234/osf.io/kha98 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Stuart Babcock ◽

Marc Howard ◽

Joseph McGuire

Keyword(s):

Response Time ◽

The Novel ◽

Correct Item ◽

Short Term ◽

Temporal Relationships ◽

The Future ◽

Memory Representations ◽

Future Events ◽

Probe Letter ◽

Rule Out

It is widely accepted that people can predict the relative imminence of future events. However, it is unknown whether the timing of future events is represented using only a "strength-like" estimate or if future events are represented conjunctively with their position on a mental timeline. We examined how people judge temporal relationships among anticipated future events using the novel Judgment of Anticipated Co-Occurence (JACO) task. Participants were initially trained on a stream of letters sampled from a probabilistically repeating sequence. During test trials, the stream was interrupted with pairs of probe letters and the participants' task was to choose the probe letter they expected to appear in the stream during a lagged target window 4-6 items (4.3-8.5 seconds) in the future. Participants performed above chance as they gained experience with the task. Because the correct item was sometimes the more imminent probe letter and other times the less imminent probe letter, these results rule out the possibility that participants relied solely on thresholding a strength-like estimate of temporal imminence. Rather, these results suggest that participants held 1) temporally organized predictions of the future letters in the stream, 2) a temporal estimate of the lagged target window, and 3) some means to compare the two and evaluate their temporal alignment. Response time increased with the lag to the more imminent probe letter, suggesting that participants accessed the future sequentially in a manner that mirrors scanning processes previously proposed to operate on memory representations in the short-term judgment of recency task.

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Factors contributing to military casualty rates during war

Psychiatric Bulletin ◽

10.1192/pb.15.4.199 ◽

1991 ◽

Vol 15 (4) ◽

pp. 199-200

Author(s):

Jacqueline M. Atkinson

Keyword(s):

Military Personnel ◽

Chronic Conditions ◽

Short Term ◽

The Future ◽

Related Stress

Discussion of psychiatric casualty figures in military personnel tends not to distinguish between acute and chronic conditions. Combat-related stress (CRS) responds well to immediate, short-term intervention. Overall psychiatric casualties are approximately 30%. Contemplating the future in 1982, Romo & Schneider suggested casualty figures might be higher. This article considers factors contributing to the incidence of psychiatric casualties.

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Future Burden of Cancer Attributable to Current Modifiable Behaviours: A Pooled Study of Seven Australian Cohorts

Journal of Global Oncology ◽

10.1200/jgo.18.18500 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 4 (Supplement 2) ◽

pp. 5s-5s

Author(s):

M.A. Laaksonen ◽

M.E. Arriaga ◽

K. Canfell ◽

R.J. MacInnis ◽

P. Hull ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Breast Cancer ◽

Risk Factors ◽

Risk Factor ◽

Alcohol Intake ◽

Breast Cancers ◽

Premenopausal Breast Cancer ◽

Current Smoking ◽

Cancer Burden ◽

The Future ◽

Future Burden

Background: The Population Attributable Fraction (PAF) quantifies the fraction of cancer cases attributable to specific exposures. PAF estimates for the future burden of cancer preventable through modifications to current exposure distributions are lacking. Previous PAF studies have also not compared population subgroup differences. Aim: To apply a novel PAF method and i) assess the future burden of cancer in Australia preventable through modifications to current behaviors, and ii) compare the distribution of the preventable cancer burden between population subgroups. Methods: We harmonized and pooled data from seven Australian cohort studies (N=367058) and linked them to national registries to identify cancers and deaths. We estimated the strength of the associations between behaviors and cancer incidence and death using a proportional hazards model, adjusting for age, sex, study and other risk factors. Exposure prevalence was estimated from contemporary national health surveys. We then combined these estimates to calculate PAFs and their 95% confidence intervals for both individual and joint behavior modifications using a novel method accounting for competing risk of death and risk factor interdependence. We also compared PAFs between population subgroups by calculating the 95% confidence interval of the difference in PAF estimates. Results: During the first 10 years of follow-up, there were 22078 deaths and 27483 incident cancers, including 2025 lung, 3471 colorectal, 640 premenopausal and 2632 postmenopausal breast cancers. The leading preventable cause for lung cancer is current smoking (PAF = 53.7%), for colorectal and postmenopausal breast cancer body fatness or BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 (PAF = 11.1% and 10.9% respectively), and for premenopausal breast cancer regular alcohol intake (PAF = 12.3%). Three in five lung cancers, but only one in five colorectal and breast cancers, are jointly attributable to potentially modifiable exposures, which also included physical inactivity and inadequate fruit intake for lung, excessive alcohol intake and current smoking for colorectal, regular alcohol intake and current menopausal hormone therapy for 1 year or more for postmenopausal breast and current oral contraceptive use for 5 years or more for premenopausal breast cancer. The cancer burden attributable to modifiable factors is markedly higher in certain population subgroups, including men (lung, colorectal), people with risk factor clustering (lung, colorectal, breast), and individuals with low educational attainment (lung, breast). Conclusion: We provided up-to-date estimates of the future Australian cancer burden attributable to modifiable risk factors, and identified population subgroups that experience the highest preventable burden. Application of the novel PAF method can inform timely public health action to improve health and health equity, by identifying those with the most to gain from programs that support behavior change and early detection.

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