Temperature, extreme precipitation, and diurnal rainfall changes in the urbanized Jakarta city during the past 130 years

2015 ◽  
Vol 36 (9) ◽  
pp. 3207-3225 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siswanto Siswanto ◽  
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh ◽  
Gerard van der Schrier ◽  
Rudmer Jilderda ◽  
Bart van den Hurk
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Temperature Extreme ◽  
The Past ◽  
Diurnal Rainfall

scholarly journals Changes in Intense Precipitation over the Central United States

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavel Ya. Groisman ◽  
Richard W. Knight ◽  
Thomas R. Karl
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
The Past ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Intense Precipitation ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Extreme Rain ◽  
Rain Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract In examining intense precipitation over the central United States, the authors consider only days with precipitation when the daily total is above 12.7 mm and focus only on these days and multiday events constructed from such consecutive precipitation days. Analyses show that over the central United States, a statistically significant redistribution in the spectra of intense precipitation days/events during the past decades has occurred. Moderately heavy precipitation events (within a 12.7–25.4 mm day−1 range) became less frequent compared to days and events with precipitation totals above 25.4 mm. During the past 31 yr (compared to the 1948–78 period), significant increases occurred in the frequency of “very heavy” (the daily rain events above 76.2 mm) and extreme precipitation events (defined as daily and multiday rain events with totals above 154.9 mm or 6 in.), with up to 40% increases in the frequency of days and multiday extreme rain events. Tropical cyclones associated with extreme precipitation do not significantly contribute to the changes reported in this study. With time, the internal precipitation structure (e.g., mean and maximum hourly precipitation rates within each preselected range of daily or multiday event totals) did not noticeably change. Several possible causes of observed changes in intense precipitation over the central United States are discussed and/or tested.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Variability in Extreme Precipitation in China from Observations and Projections

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 1089 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yifeng Peng ◽  
Xiang Zhao ◽  
Donghai Wu ◽  
Bijian Tang ◽  
Peipei Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Ecological Processes ◽  
The Past ◽  
Spatiotemporal Characteristics ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Extreme precipitation events, which have intensified with global warming over the past several decades, will become more intense in the future according to model projections. Although many studies have been performed, the occurrence patterns for extreme precipitation events in past and future periods in China remain unresolved. Additionally, few studies have explained how extreme precipitation events developed over the past 58 years and how they will evolve in the next 90 years as global warming becomes much more serious. In this paper, we evaluated the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation events using indices for the frequency, quantity, intensity, and proportion of extreme precipitation, which were proposed by the World Meteorological Organization. We simultaneously analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation in China from 2011 to 2100 using data obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Despite the fixed threshold, 95th percentile precipitation values were also used as the extreme precipitation threshold to reduce the influence of various rainfall events caused by different geographic locations; then, eight extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) were calculated to evaluate extreme precipitation in China. We found that the spatial characteristics of the eight EPIs exhibited downward trends from south to north. In the periods 1960–2017 and 2011–2100, trends in the EPIs were positive, but there were differences between different regions. In the past 58 years, the extreme precipitation increased in the northwest, southeast, and the Tibet Plateau of China, while decreased in northern China. Almost all the trends of EPIs are positive in the next two periods (2011–2055 and 2056–2100) except for some EPIs, such as intensity of extreme precipitation, which decrease in southeastern China in the second period (2056–2100). This study suggests that the frequency of extreme precipitation events in China will progressively increase, which implies that a substantial burden will be placed on social economies and terrestrial ecological processes.

Extreme precipitation events during the South Asian summer monsoon season in the past century

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Renaud Falga ◽  
Chien Wang
Keyword(s):  
South Asian ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Past Century ◽  
South Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
The South ◽  
The Past ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

<p>The South Asian monsoon system impacts the livelihoods of over a billion people. While the overall monsoon rainfall is believed to have decreased during the 20<sup>th</sup> century, there is a good agreement that the extreme precipitation events have been rising in some parts of India. As an important part of the Indian population is dependent on rainfed agriculture, such a rise in extremes, along with resulting flood events, can be all the more problematic. Although studies tend to link this rise in extreme events with anthropogenic forcing, some uncertainties remain on the exact causes. In order to examine the correlation between anthropogenic forcings and the different trends in extreme events, we have analyzed the high-resolution daily rainfall data in the past century delivered by the Indian Meteorological Department alongside several other economic and ecological estimates. The results from this analysis will be presented in detail.</p>

scholarly journals Adaptation to Extreme Hydrological Events by Javanese Society through Local Knowledge

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (24) ◽  
pp. 10373
Author(s):  
Muhamad Khoiru Zaki ◽  
Keigo Noda ◽  
Kengo Ito ◽  
Komariah Komariah ◽  
Sumani Sumani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indigenous Knowledge ◽  
Local Knowledge ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Scientific Data ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Indigenous Knowledge System ◽  
Diurnal Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Hydrological Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Understanding the effects of local knowledge on actions and decisions taken during a crisis is important; empirical studies and scientific data can be instructive to this end. This study integrated local knowledge (Pranata Mangsa) in Jawa, Indonesia, with scientific data on diurnal rainfall, extreme precipitation events, using the Local and Indigenous Knowledge System (LINKS). The results showed that Pranata Mangsa has informed aspects of agriculture including crop calendars, crop patterns, and farming activities, for over 1000 years in Jawa. Pranata Mangsa also enhances community resilience by mitigating the effects of extreme droughts; this finding was validated using scientific data.

scholarly journals Can We Expect More Extreme Precipitation on the Monthly Time Scale?

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 630-637 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rasmus E. Benestad
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Assessment Report ◽  
The Past ◽  
Ipcc Report ◽  
Instrumental Records

Abstract The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report states that instrumental records show an increase in precipitation by +0.5%–1% decade−1 in much of the Northern Hemisphere mid- and high latitudes and a decrease of −0.3% decade−1 over subtropical land areas. It has been postulated that these trends are associated with the enhanced levels of atmospheric CO2. In this context, it is natural to ask how continuing rising levels of CO2 may affect the climate in the future. The past IPCC reports have documented numerous studies where increased greenhouse gas concentrations have been prescribed in global climate model simulations. Now, new simulations with state-of-the-art climate models are becoming available for the next IPCC report [the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)], and results from a number of these simulations are examined in order to determine whether they indicate a change in extreme precipitation on a monthly basis. The analysis involves a simple record–statistics framework and shows that the upper tails of the probability distribution functions for monthly precipitation are being stretched in the mid- and high latitudes where mean-level precipitation increases have already been reported in the past. In other words, values corresponding to extreme monthly precipitation in the past are, according to these results, becoming more frequent.

scholarly journals Changes in high-intensity precipitation on the northern Apennines (Italy) as revealed by multidisciplinary data over the last 9000 years

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 1547-1564
Author(s):  
Stefano Segadelli ◽  
Federico Grazzini ◽  
Veronica Rossi ◽  
Margherita Aguzzi ◽  
Silvia Marvelli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
High Intensity ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
Northern Apennines ◽  
Coarse Grained ◽  
Precipitation Event ◽  
Peat Bog ◽  
Field Campaign ◽  
The Past ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. Several record-breaking precipitation events have struck the mountainous area of the Emilia–Romagna region (northern Apennines, Italy) over the last 10 years. As a consequence, severe geomorphological processes such as debris avalanches and debris flows, shallow landslides, and overbank flooding have affected the territory, causing severe damage to human-made structures. The unusual intensity of these phenomena prompted an investigation into their frequency in the past, beyond instrumental time. In the quest for an understanding of whether these phenomena are unprecedented in the region, peat bog and lake deposits were analyzed to infer the frequency of extreme precipitation events that may have occurred in the past. We present the results of a dedicated field campaign performed in summer 2017 at Lake Moo in the northern Apennines, a 0.15 km2 peat bog located at an altitude of 1130 m a.s.l. During the extreme precipitation event of 13–14 September 2015, several debris flows generated by small streams affected the Lake Moo plain. In such a small drainage basin (<2 km2), high-density floods can be triggered only by high-intensity precipitation events. The sedimentary succession (ca. 13 m thick) was studied through the drilling of two cores and one trench. The sequence, characterized by clusters of coarse-grained alluvial deposits interbedded with organic-rich silty clays and peat layers, was analyzed by combining sedimentological, pollen, microanthracological and pedological data with radiocarbon dating (AMS 14C) in an innovative multidisciplinary approach for this area. Original data acquired during the field campaign were also correlated with other specific paleoclimatic proxies available in the literature for the northern Apennines area. We discover that the increase in extreme paleoflooding, associated with coarse-grained deposits similar to the ones observed recently, correlates well with the warm phases of the Holocene Thermal Maximum and with the ongoing warming trend observed that started at the beginning of the last century.

scholarly journals Extreme Precipitation Events in Chennai Metro City Using Data Mining

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. 99-108
Keyword(s):  
Data Mining ◽  
Information Extraction ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Initial Step ◽  
Recent Decade ◽  
The Past ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Precipitation Events

A information mining approach is displayed and connected to examine the climatic reasons for outrageous climatic occasions. Our methodology involves two primary strides of information extraction connected progressively, so as to decrease the trouble of the first informational index. The objective is to recognize an a lot littler subset of climatic factors that may in any case have the option to portray or even anticipate the outrageous occasions. The initial step applies a class correlation strategy. The subsequent advance comprises of a choice tree learning calculation utilized as a prescient model to outline set of measurably most huge atmosphere factors recognized in the past advance to classes of precipitation quality. The procedure is utilized to the investigation the climatic reasons for two outrageous occasions happened in India the most recent decade: the Chennai 2015 extraordinary precipitation disaster and the Tamilnadu(except Chennai) inadequacy of 2016. In the two cases, our outcomes are in great concurrence with investigations distributed in the writing

Extreme summer precipitation in Central Europe over the past millennium: role of external forcing in enseble of simulations with Earth System models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eduardo Zorita
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
External Forcing ◽  
Earth System ◽  
The Past ◽  
Summer Time ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Past Millennium

&lt;p&gt;Extreme precipitation in Europe over summer time is one type of climate extreme with strongest impact on societies, at present and over the past centuries. In contrast to mean and extreme temperatures, it is still unclear to what extant the external forcing may modulate the intensity and frequency of this type of hydrological extremes. This contribution focuses on the identification of the impact of external forcing on European extreme precipitation over the past millennium in one small ensembles of simulations with the Earth System model MPI-ESM-P and in the Large Millennium Ensemble with the model CESM.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Both models realistically simulate the meteorological conditions that give rise to sustained (over several days) strong precipitation, compared to present conditions. The analysis of both ensembles indicates that the role of the external forcing over the past millennium has been weak at most, with individual members of the ensemble providing different timings for period with high and low probability of extreme summer precipitation in this region. This conclusion is also valid for mean summer precipitation.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This result confirms the evidence obtained from analysis of proxy records, mostly palaeoclimatological records but also historical evidence. This analysis indicates that the frequency and intensity of extreme summer precipitation has been so far independent of the mean climate state.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Reply to comments on “Temperature-extreme precipitation scaling: a two-way causality?”

2018 ◽  
Vol 38 (12) ◽  
pp. 4664-4666 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geert Lenderink ◽  
Renaud Barbero ◽  
Seth Westra ◽  
Hayley J. Fowler
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Temperature Extreme
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