Projecting Future Climate Scenarios for Canada Using General Circulation Models: An Integrated Review

2013 ◽  
pp. 3-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed H. I Dore ◽  
Peter Simcisko
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Scenarios

scholarly journals Estimation of Watershed Hydrochemical Responses to Future Climate Changes Based on CMIP6 Scenarios in the Tianhe River (China)

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (18) ◽  
pp. 10102
Author(s):  
Jian Sha ◽  
Xue Li ◽  
Jingjing Yang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Research Station ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Hydrochemical Processes

The impacts of future climate changes on watershed hydrochemical processes were assessed based on the newest Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in the Tianhe River in the middle area of China. The monthly spatial downscaled outputs of General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used, and a new Python procedure was developed to batch pick up site-scale climate change information. A combined modeling approach was proposed to estimate the responses of the streamflow and Total Dissolved Nitrogen (TDN) fluxes to four climate change scenarios during four future periods. The Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was used to generate synthetic daily weather series, which were further used in the Regional Nutrient Management (ReNuMa) model for scenario analyses of watershed hydrochemical process responses. The results showed that there would be 2–3% decreases in annual streamflow by the end of this century for most scenarios except SSP 1-26. More streamflow is expected in the summer months, responding to most climate change scenarios. The annual TDN fluxes would continue to increase in the future under the uncontrolled climate scenarios, with more non-point source contributions during the high-flow periods in the summer. The intensities of the TDN flux increasing under the emission-controlled climate scenarios would be relatively moderate, with a turning point around the 2070s, indicating that positive climate policies could be effective for mitigating the impacts of future climate changes on watershed hydrochemical processes.

scholarly journals PLASIM-ENTSem: a spatio-temporal emulator of future climate change for impacts assessment

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 3349-3380 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. B. Holden ◽  
N. R. Edwards ◽  
P. H. Garthwaite ◽  
K. Fraedrich ◽  
F. Lunkeit ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Abstract. Many applications in the evaluation of climate impacts and environmental policy require detailed spatio-temporal projections of future climate. To capture feedbacks from impacted natural or socio-economic systems requires interactive two-way coupling but this is generally computationally infeasible with even moderately complex general circulation models (GCMs). Dimension reduction using emulation is one solution to this problem, demonstrated here with the GCM PLASIM-ENTS. Our approach generates temporally evolving spatial patterns of climate variables, considering multiple modes of variability in order to capture non-linear feedbacks. The emulator provides a 188-member ensemble of decadally and spatially resolved (~ 5° resolution) seasonal climate data in response to an arbitrary future CO2 concentration and radiative forcing scenario. We present the PLASIM-ENTS coupled model, the construction of its emulator from an ensemble of transient future simulations, an application of the emulator methodology to produce heating and cooling degree-day projections, and the validation of the results against empirical data and higher-complexity models. We also demonstrate the application to estimates of sea-level rise and associated uncertainty.

scholarly journals Impact of future climate change on water supply and irrigation demand in a small mediterranean catchment. Case study: Nebhana dam system, Tunisia

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1724-1747 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Allani ◽  
R. Mezzi ◽  
A. Zouabi ◽  
R. Béji ◽  
F. Joumade-Mansouri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Cycle Duration ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Time Periods

Abstract This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on water supply and demand of the Nebhana dam system. Future climate change scenarios were obtained from five general circulation models (GCMs) of CMIP5 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios for the time periods, 2021–2040, 2041–2060 and 2061–2080. Statistical downscaling was applied using LARS-WG. The GR2M hydrological model was calibrated, validated and used as input to the WEAP model to assess future water availability. Expected crop growth cycle lengths were estimated using a growing degree days model. By means of the WEAP-MABIA method, projected crop and irrigation water requirements were estimated. Results show an average increase in annual ETo of 6.1% and a decrease in annual rainfall of 11.4%, leading to a 24% decrease in inflow. Also, crops' growing cycles will decrease from 5.4% for wheat to 31% for citrus trees. The same tendency is observed for ETc. Concerning irrigation requirement, variations are more moderated depending on RCPs and time periods, and is explained by rainfall and crop cycle duration variations. As for demand and supply, results currently show that supply does not meet the system demand. Climate change could worsen the situation unless better planning of water surface use is done.

Estimation of hydrological response to future climate change in a cold watershed

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 78-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Sha ◽  
Zhong-Liang Wang ◽  
Yue Zhao ◽  
Yan-Xue Xu ◽  
Xue Li
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Water System ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Research Station ◽  
Hydrological Process

Abstract The vulnerability of the natural water system in cold areas to future climate change is of great concern. A coupled model approach was applied in the headwater watershed area of Yalu River in the northeastern part of China to estimate the response of hydrological processes to future climate change with moderate data. The stochastic Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator was used to downscale the results of general circulation models to generate synthetic daily weather series in the 2050s and 2080s under various projected scenarios, which were applied as input data of the Generalized Watershed Loading Functions hydrological model for future hydrological process estimations. The results showed that future wetter and hotter weather conditions would have positive impacts on the watershed runoff yields but negative impacts on the watershed groundwater flow yields. The freezing period in winter would be shortened with earlier snowmelt peaks in spring. These would result in less snow cover in winter and shift the monthly allocations of streamflow with more yields in March but less in April and May, which should be of great concern for future local management. The proposed approach of the coupled model application is effective and can be used in other similar areas.

Optimal white spruce breeding zones for Ontario under current and future climates

2010 ◽  
Vol 40 (8) ◽  
pp. 1576-1587 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashley M. Thomson ◽  
Kevin A. Crowe ◽  
William H. Parker
Keyword(s):  
Picea Glauca ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
White Spruce ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Decision Support Model ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Seed Transfer ◽  
Significant Difference

Optimal breeding zones were developed for white spruce ( Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) in Ontario under present and future climate conditions to examine potential shifts due to climate change. These zones were developed by (i) determining a set of candidate breeding zones based on the relationship between measured performance variables and climate and (ii) employing a decision support model to select subsets of breeding zones that maximize geographic coverage subject to a constraint on the maximum number of zones. Current optimal breeding zones were based on 1961–1990 climate normals, and future breeding zones were based on three general circulation model (CGCM2, HADCM3, and CSIRO) predictions of 2041–2070 climate. Based on a maximum adaptive distance of 2.0 least significant difference values between sites within zones, 14 zones were required to cover the Ontario range of white spruce for the 1961–1990 data. Compared with breeding zones of other boreal conifers, current optimal breeding zones for white spruce were quite large, spanning up to 3° latitude and 10°–12° longitude and indicating large distances of effective seed transfer. Of the three general circulation models used to simulate future climate, HADCM3 B2 and CGCM2 B2 predicted 2041–2070 breeding zones that largely coincide with 1961–1990 zones. In contrast, CSIRO B2 indicated much narrower 2041–2070 breeding zones.

scholarly journals Assessing the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Mountain Snowpack in the St. Mary River Watershed, Montana

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 262-273 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan J. MacDonald ◽  
James M. Byrne ◽  
Stefan W. Kienzle ◽  
Robert P. Larson
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Systems Science ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Ghg Emission ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
Water Demands ◽  
Snow Water

Abstract The St. Mary River watershed is an important international watershed that supplies irrigation water to large portions of southern Alberta, Canada, and northern Montana. The St. Mary River is fully allocated and users on both sides of the border are concerned regarding declining water supplies and increasing water demands under climate warming. Water supply in the St. Mary River is largely from snowpack in the mountainous portion of the watershed. This work assesses potential future changes in snowpack for the St. Mary River watershed under a range of general circulation model (GCM) derived future climate scenarios. The Generate Earth Systems Science (GENESYS) input spatial hydrometeorological model is used to simulate potential changes in spring snowpack, the onset of melt, and changes in snow extent for three 30-yr periods centered around 2025, 2055, and 2085. Results suggest an earlier spring and associated earlier onset of snowmelt and probable declines in maximum annual snow water equivalent (SWE) over the St. Mary River watershed are likely under most future climate scenarios used in this study. However, results are responsive to future climate scenarios, where a scenario with substantial global greenhouse gas (GHG) emission controls shows a much lower decline in total accumulated SWE over the St. Mary River watershed. Without substantial GHG emission reductions, the study does show that there could be significant changes in snowpack over the St. Mary River watershed in the future.

scholarly journals Hydrological responses to climate change conditioned by historic alterations of land-use and water-use

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 7595-7620 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Jarsjö ◽  
S. M. Asokan ◽  
C. Prieto ◽  
A. Bring ◽  
G. Destouni
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Loss ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Aral Sea ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Hydrological Responses ◽  
Irrigation Practices

Abstract. This paper quantifies and conditions expected hydrological responses in the Aral Sea Drainage Basin (ASDB; occupying 1.3 % of the earth's land surface), Central Asia, to multi-model projections of climate change in the region from 20 general circulation models (GCMs). The aim is to investigate how uncertainties of future climate change interact with the effects of historic human re-distributions of water for land irrigation to influence future water fluxes and water resources. So far, historic irrigation changes have greatly amplified water losses by evapotranspiration (ET) in the ASDB, whereas the 20th century climate change has not much affected the regional net water loss to the atmosphere. Projected future climate change (for the period 2010–2039) however is here calculated to considerably increase the net water loss to the atmosphere. Furthermore, the ET response strength to any future temperature change will be further increased by maintained (or increased) irrigation practices. With such irrigation practices, the river runoff is likely to decrease to near-total depletion, with risk for cascading ecological regime shifts in aquatic ecosystems downstream of irrigated land areas. Without irrigation, the agricultural areas of the principal Syr Darya river basin could sustain a 50 % higher temperature increase (of 2.3 °C instead of the projected 1.5 °C until 2010–2039) before yielding the same consumptive ET increase and associated R decrease as with the present irrigation practices.

scholarly journals Assessing the climate change adaptation over four European cities

2021 ◽  
Vol 2069 (1) ◽  
pp. 012069
Author(s):  
Yuchen Yang ◽  
Vahid M. Nik
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Thermal Comfort ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Energy Performance ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
European Cities ◽  
Indoor Thermal Comfort

Abstract In recent years, climate change has been widely recognized as a potential problem. The building industry is taking a variety of actions towards sustainable development and climate change mitigation, such as retrofitting buildings. More than mitigation, it is important to account for climate change adaptation and investigate the probable risks and limits for mitigation strategies. For example, one major challenge may become achieving low energy demand without compromising indoor thermal comfort during warm seasons. This work investigates the future energy performance and indoor thermal comfort of four European cities belonging to four different climate zones in Europe; Barcelona, Koln, Brussels, and Copenhagen. An ensemble of future climate scenarios is used, including thirteen climate scenarios considering five different general circulation models (GCM) and three representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Through simulating the energy performance of the representative buildings in each city and considering several climate scenarios, this paper provides a comprehensive picture about the energy performance and indoor thermal comfort of the buildings for near-term, medium-term, and long-term climate conditions.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of lake ice regimes to climate change in the Nordic region

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 1589-1605 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Gebre ◽  
T. Boissy ◽  
K. Alfredsen
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Lake Ice ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Nordic Region

Abstract. A one-dimensional process-based multi-year lake ice model, MyLake, was used to simulate lake ice phenology and annual maximum lake ice thickness for the Nordic region comprising Fennoscandia and the Baltic countries. The model was first tested and validated using observational meteorological forcing on a candidate lake (Lake Atnsjøen) and using downscaled ERA-40 reanalysis data set. To simulate ice conditions for the contemporary period of 1961–2000, the model was driven by gridded meteorological forcings from ERA-40 global reanalysis data downscaled to a 25 km resolution using the Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA). The model was then forced with two future climate scenarios from the RCA driven by two different general circulation models (GCMs) based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B. The two climate scenarios correspond to two future time periods namely the 2050s (2041–2070) and the 2080s (2071–2100). To take into account the influence of lake morphometry, simulations were carried out for four different hypothetical lake depths (5 m, 10 m, 20 m, 40 m) placed at each of the 3708 grid cells. Based on a comparison of the mean predictions in the future 30-year periods with the control (1961–1990) period, ice cover durations in the region will be shortened by 1 to 11 weeks in 2041–2070, and 3 to 14 weeks in 2071–2100. Annual maximum lake ice thickness, on the other hand, will be reduced by a margin of up to 60 cm by 2041–2070 and up to 70 cm by 2071–2100. The simulated changes in lake ice characteristics revealed that the changes are less dependent on lake depths though there are slight differences. The results of this study provide a regional perspective of anticipated changes in lake ice regimes due to climate warming across the study area by the middle and end of this century.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Water Balance Components and Droughts in the Guajoyo River Basin (El Salvador)

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 2360 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Blanco-Gómez ◽  
Patricia Jimeno-Sáez ◽  
Javier Senent-Aparicio ◽  
Julio Pérez-Sánchez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
El Salvador ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Historical Series

This study assessed how changes in terms of temperature and precipitation might translate into changes in water availability and droughts in an area in a developing country with environmental interest. The hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to analyze the impacts of climate change on water resources of the Guajoyo River Basin in El Salvador. El Salvador is in one of the most vulnerable regions in Latin America to the effects of climate change. The predicted future climate change by two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and five general circulation models (GCMs) were considered. A statistical analysis was performed to identify which GCM was better in terms of goodness of fit to variation in means and standard deviations of the historical series. A significant decreasing trend in precipitation and a significant increase in annual average temperatures were projected by the middle and the end of the twenty–first century. The results indicated a decreasing trend of the amount of water available and more severe droughts for future climate scenarios with respect to the base period (1975–2004). These findings will provide local water management authorities useful information in the face of climate change to help decision making.

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