The Evaluation of Clinical Predictions: A Method and Initial Application

Author(s):  
Alan R. Shapiro
Keyword(s):  
2013 ◽  
Vol 380-384 ◽  
pp. 186-190
Author(s):  
Ya Nan Huang ◽  
Da Lu Liu ◽  
Feng Sheng Sun ◽  
Yu Wang ◽  
Ming Xing Gao

When comparing with ship construction within newly-built docks or on tilting slipways, ship constructing on the flat earth method can be said to be a new ship-building technique by which ship is built on a platform and launched with the aid of floating-dock or barge. Some obvious advantages of this technique are such as less investment in basic facilities, low production cost, high production efficiency, wide applicability of ship types, ability to overcome the bottle-neck effect of berths and docks. In this paper, a bulk-carrier being taken as an example, the design of launching processing scheme on the horizontal shipway includes calculation of launching weight and determination of hoisting force during the whole towing period. The whole towing process of hull can be divided into three stages, the first is from the static state to the moment of beginning to move, the second is from the initial position of movement to the front of slipway onto which the hull is predicted to be pulled, and the third is from the front of slipway to the designated position on the floating dock. Subsequently, after the hull being sealed and positioned correctly, the floating dock for launching may be towed to deeper water zone and the hull can be buoyed up on the water surface, and the whole launching process can be completed. From the research, the conclusion is made that the launching technique of this paper is available and feasible. Especially, this paper is the initial application of this method on the 15000t launching ship home and has the epoch-making sense.


2012 ◽  
Vol 271-272 ◽  
pp. 1328-1345
Author(s):  
Jin Li ◽  
Jian Yang Zhao

In combination with the author's experiences in design for integrated unit for natural gas field gathering and transmission, this paper describes conventional practices and technical characteristics of integrated unit in the processes of standardization design and modularization establishment and analyzes the initial application of pneumatic control ball valve, wedge-shaped flowmeter and other new technologies for surface facilities in the gas field. As a result, a new design idea is proposed in this paper, i.e., to improve the integration level of surface facilities, to minimize power consumption and maintenance works and to realize unattended work mode.


2012 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 223-236 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeff Biddle

At the 1927 meetings of the American Economic Association, Paul Douglas presented a paper entitled “A Theory of Production,” which he had coauthored with Charles Cobb. The paper proposed the now familiar Cobb–Douglas function as a mathematical representation of the relationship between capital, labor, and output. The paper's innovation, however, was not the function itself, which had originally been proposed by Knut Wicksell, but the use of the function as the basis of a statistical procedure for estimating the relationship between inputs and output. The paper's least squares regression of the log of the output-to-capital ratio in manufacturing on the log of the labor-to-capital ratio—the first Cobb–Douglas regression—was a realization of Douglas's innovative vision that a stable relationship between empirical measures of inputs and outputs could be discovered through statistical analysis, and that this stable relationship could cast light on important questions of economic theory and policy. This essay provides an account of the introduction of the Cobb–Douglas regression: its roots in Douglas's own work and in trends in economics in the 1920s, its initial application to time series data in the 1927 paper and Douglas's 1934 book The Theory of Wages, and the early reactions of economists to this new empirical tool.


2020 ◽  
Vol 499 (4) ◽  
pp. 4905-4917
Author(s):  
S Contreras ◽  
R E Angulo ◽  
M Zennaro ◽  
G Aricò ◽  
M Pellejero-Ibañez

ABSTRACT Predicting the spatial distribution of objects as a function of cosmology is an essential ingredient for the exploitation of future galaxy surveys. In this paper, we show that a specially designed suite of gravity-only simulations together with cosmology-rescaling algorithms can provide the clustering of dark matter, haloes, and subhaloes with high precision. Specifically, with only three N-body simulations, we obtain the power spectrum of dark matter at z = 0 and 1 to better than 3 per cent precision for essentially all currently viable values of eight cosmological parameters, including massive neutrinos and dynamical dark energy, and over the whole range of scales explored, 0.03 < $k/{h}^{-1}\, {\rm Mpc}^{-1}$ < 5. This precision holds at the same level for mass-selected haloes and for subhaloes selected according to their peak maximum circular velocity. As an initial application of these predictions, we successfully constrain Ωm, σ8, and the scatter in subhalo-abundance-matching employing the projected correlation function of mock SDSS galaxies.


NeuroImage ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 188 ◽  
pp. 282-290 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claire Cury ◽  
Stanley Durrleman ◽  
David M. Cash ◽  
Marco Lorenzi ◽  
Jennifer M. Nicholas ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Anna Engels-Putzka ◽  
Jan Backhaus ◽  
Christian Frey

This paper describes the development and initial application of an adjoint harmonic balance solver. The harmonic balance method is a numerical method formulated in the frequency domain which is particularly suitable for the simulation of periodic unsteady flow phenomena in turbomachinery. Successful applications of this method include unsteady aerodynamics as well as aeroacoustics and aeroelasticity. Here we focus on forced response due to the interaction of neighboring blade rows. In the CFD-based design and optimization of turbomachinery components it is often helpful to be able to compute not only the objective values — e.g. performance data of a component — themselves, but also their sensitivities with respect to variations of the geometry. An efficient way to compute such sensitivities for a large number of geometric changes is the application of the adjoint method. While this is frequently used in the context of steady CFD, it becomes prohibitively expensive for unsteady simulations in the time domain. For unsteady methods in the frequency domain, the use of adjoint solvers is feasible, but still challenging. The present approach employs the reverse mode of algorithmic differentiation (AD) to construct a discrete adjoint of an existing harmonic balance solver in the framework of an industrially applied CFD code. The paper discusses implemen-tational issues as well as the performance of the adjoint solver, in particular regarding memory requirements. The presented method is applied to compute the sensitivities of aeroelastic objectives with respect to geometric changes in a turbine stage.


1983 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 425-444 ◽  
Author(s):  
JOHN D. ROBERTSON

As democracies enter an era of economic retrenchment, the political costs associated with economic decline have come under close scrutiny by students of comparative politics and public policy. Of particular concern is the linkage between inflation, unemployment, and the collapse of incumbent governments. The present study provides an initial application of an alternative approach to measuring this linkage across 8 European democracies, and offers significant evidence linking political costs for cabinet governments with rising prices and the growing unemployment. By utilizing the Poisson method of determining probabilities of discrete events, increasing probabilities of government collapse are significantly associated with rising inflation and unemployment in European democracies between January 1958 and December 1979. Subsequent use of the Sanders and Herman's (1977) and Warwick (1979) analyses of cabinet stability provides a useful means to disaggregate the nation sample of the study into four discrete subsets of nations. After applying the model developed in the current study to these separate subsets, it is concluded that the more significant the change in rates of inflation and unemployment, the more likely the pattern of government collapse will be interrupted by the unexpected termination of an incumbent regime.


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