Uniform and Local Corrosion Characterization and Modeling Framework for Long-Term Exposure of Different Rebars Used for RC Elements in the Presence of Chloride Conditions

2021 ◽  
pp. 794-804
Author(s):  
Deeparekha Narayanan ◽  
Yi Lu ◽  
Ayman Okeil ◽  
Homero Castaneda
Keyword(s):  
Local Corrosion ◽  
Modeling Framework

scholarly journals Extensive Evaluation of a Continental-Scale High-Resolution Hydrological Model Using Remote Sensing and Ground-Based Observations

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 1247
Author(s):  
Bowen Zhu ◽  
Xianhong Xie ◽  
Chuiyu Lu ◽  
Tianjie Lei ◽  
Yibing Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Large Domain ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Extensive Evaluation ◽  
Mean Differences ◽  
Fine Resolution

Extreme hydrologic events are getting more frequent under a changing climate, and a reliable hydrological modeling framework is important to understand their mechanism. However, existing hydrological modeling frameworks are mostly constrained to a relatively coarse resolution, unrealistic input information, and insufficient evaluations, especially for the large domain, and they are, therefore, unable to address and reconstruct many of the water-related issues (e.g., flooding and drought). In this study, a 0.0625-degree (~6 km) resolution variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model developed for China from 1970 to 2016 was extensively evaluated against remote sensing and ground-based observations. A unique feature in this modeling framework is the incorporation of new remotely sensed vegetation and soil parameter dataset. To our knowledge, this constitutes the first application of VIC with such a long-term and fine resolution over a large domain, and more importantly, with a holistic system-evaluation leveraging the best available earth data. The evaluations using in-situ observations of streamflow, evapotranspiration (ET), and soil moisture (SM) indicate a great improvement. The simulations are also consistent with satellite remote sensing products of ET and SM, because the mean differences between the VIC ET and the remote sensing ET range from −2 to 2 mm/day, and the differences for SM of the top thin layer range from −2 to 3 mm. Therefore, this continental-scale hydrological modeling framework is reliable and accurate, which can be used for various applications including extreme hydrological event detections.

scholarly journals High coverage COVID-19 mRNA vaccination rapidly controls SARS-CoV-2 transmission in long-term care facilities

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo M. De Salazar ◽  
Nicholas B. Link ◽  
Karuna Lamarca ◽  
Mauricio Santillana
Keyword(s):  
Long Term Care ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
High Coverage ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Early Effect ◽  
Care Facilities ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Background Residents of Long-Term Care Facilities (LTCFs) represent a major share of COVID-19 deaths worldwide. Measuring the vaccine effectiveness among the most vulnerable in these settings is essential to monitor and improve mitigation strategies. Methods We evaluate the early effect of the administration of BNT162b2-mRNA vaccine to individuals older than 64 years residing in LTCFs in Catalonia, Spain. We monitor all the SARS-CoV-2 documented infections and deaths among LTCFs residents once more than 70% of them were fully vaccinated (February–March 2021). We develop a modeling framework based on the relationship between community and LTCFs transmission during the pre-vaccination period (July–December 2020). We compute the total reduction in SARS-CoV-2 documented infections and deaths among residents of LTCFs over time, as well as the reduction in the detected transmission for all the LTCFs. We compare the true observations with the counterfactual predictions. Results We estimate that once more than 70% of the LTCFs population are fully vaccinated, 74% (58–81%, 90% CI) of COVID-19 deaths and 75% (36–86%, 90% CI) of all expected documented infections among LTCFs residents are prevented. Further, detectable transmission among LTCFs residents is reduced up to 90% (76–93%, 90% CI) relative to that expected given transmission in the community. Conclusions Our findings provide evidence that high-coverage vaccination is the most effective intervention to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission and death among LTCFs residents. Widespread vaccination could be a feasible avenue to control the COVID-19 pandemic conditional on key factors such as vaccine escape, roll out and coverage.

scholarly journals Influence of Customer Attrition on Diffusion of Business Education Services

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 125-134
Author(s):  
Nitin Sachdeva
Keyword(s):  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
New Product ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Diffusion Models ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Type I ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Customer Attrition ◽  
The Impact

Innovation diffusion models have been developed by many researchers during the past few decades based on the famous Bass (1969) model. Several such diffusion models have been developed in consideration of price, marketing efforts etc., however, it is hardly seen that customer attrition (disadoption) can play a significant role in long term growth process of any new product or service. This paper defines two types of disadoption process, Type I disadoption and Type II disadoption process, representing disadopters from innovators and imitators, respectively. We illustrate that there is an increase in the market size along with the adoption of new product and this increase is addressed in this paper. The explicit mean value function for the two types of disadoption processes is derived in this paper. The thrust of the research is on studying the management educational services in the Delhi/NCR region of India and the impact of disadoption on the long term growth of such services. In order to validate the proposed modeling framework, we make use of different goodness-of-fit criteria on primary data collected from an institute in Delhi/NCR.

scholarly journals What Caused Record Water Level Rise in the Great Lakes?

Eos ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Terri Cook
Keyword(s):  
Great Lakes ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Climate Trends ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Water Level Rise ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Insight Into

A new modeling framework offers insight into how specific lakes' water levels respond to short- and long-term climate trends.

scholarly journals Use of the SmeltCam as an Efficient Fish Sampling Alternative Within the San Francisco Estuary

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Brock Huntsman ◽  
◽  
Federick Feyrer ◽  
Matthew Young ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
San Francisco ◽  
Biological Data ◽  
San Francisco Estuary ◽  
Sampling Efficiency ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Retention Efficiency ◽  
Handling Stress ◽  
Delta Smelt ◽  
Northern Anchovy

Resource managers often rely on long-term monitoring surveys to detect trends in biological data. However, no survey gear is 100% efficient, and many sources of bias can be responsible for detecting or not detecting biological trends. The SmeltCam is an imaging apparatus developed as a potential sampling alternative to long-term trawling gear surveys within the San Francisco Estuary, California, to reduce handling stress on sensitive species like the Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus). Although believed to be a reliable alternative to closed cod-end trawling surveys, no formal test of sampling efficiency has been implemented using the SmeltCam. We used a paired deployment of the SmeltCam and a conventional closed cod-end trawl within the Napa River and San Pablo Bay, a Bayesian binomial N-mixture model, and data simulations to determine the sampling efficiency of both deployed gear types to capture a Delta Smelt surrogate (Northern Anchovy, Engraulis mordax) and to test potential bias in our modeling framework. We found that retention efficiency—a component of detection efficiency that estimates the probability a fish is retained by the gear, conditional on gear contact—was slightly higher using the SmeltCam (mean = 0.58) than the conventional trawl (mean = 0.47, Probability SmeltCam retention efficiency > trawl retention efficiency = 94%). We also found turbidity did not affect the SmeltCam’s retention efficiency, although total fish density during an individual tow improved the trawl’s retention efficiency. Simulations also showed the binomial model was accurate when model assumptions were met. Collectively, our results suggest the SmeltCam to be a reliable alternative to sampling with conventional trawling gear, but future tests are needed to confirm whether the SmeltCam is as reliable when applied to taxa other than Northern Anchovy over a greater range of conditions.

scholarly journals Future Socio-Political Scenarios for Aquatic Resources in Europe: A Common Framework Based on Shared-Socioeconomic-Pathways (SSPs)

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
John K. Pinnegar ◽  
Katell G. Hamon ◽  
Cornelia M. Kreiss ◽  
Andrzej Tabeau ◽  
Sandra Rybicki ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Aquatic Resources ◽  
Horizon 2020 ◽  
Common Framework ◽  
Ipcc Sres ◽  
Political Economic

It has proven extremely challenging for researchers to predict with confidence how human societies might develop in the future, yet managers and industries need to make projections in order to test adaptation and mitigation strategies designed to build resilience to long-term shocks. This paper introduces exploratory scenarios with a particular focus on European aquaculture and fisheries and describes how these scenarios were designed. Short-, medium- and long-term developments in socio-political drivers may be just as important in determining profits, revenues and prospects in the aquaculture and fisheries industries as physical drivers such as long-term climate change. Four socio-political-economic futures were developed, based partly on the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) framework and partly on the newer system of Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). ‘Off the shelf’ narrative material as well as quantitative outputs were ‘borrowed’ from earlier frameworks but supplemented with material generated through in-depth stakeholder workshops involving industry and policy makers. Workshop participants were tasked to outline how they thought their sector might look under the four future worlds and, in particular, to make use of the PESTEL conceptual framework (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal) as an aide memoire to help define the scope of each scenario. This work was carried out under the auspices of the EU Horizon 2020 project CERES (Climate change and European aquatic RESources), and for each ‘CERES scenario’ (World Markets, National Enterprise, Global Sustainability and Local Stewardship), additional quantitative outputs were generated, including projections of future fuel and fish prices, using the MAGNET (Modular Applied GeNeral Equilibrium Tool) modeling framework. In developing and applying the CERES scenarios, we have demonstrated that the basic architecture is sufficiently flexible to be used at a wide diversity of scales. We urge the climate science community to adopt a similar scenarios framework, based around SSPs, to facilitate global cross-comparison of fisheries and aquaculture model outputs more broadly and to harmonize communication regarding potential future bioeconomic impacts of climate change.

scholarly journals Low-dose ATG/GCSF in Established Type 1 Diabetes: A Five-Year Follow-up Report

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Lin ◽  
Jasmine A. Mack ◽  
Brittany Bruggeman ◽  
Laura M. Jacobsen ◽  
Amanda L. Posgai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Type 1 Diabetes ◽  
Low Dose ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Tolerance Test ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
C Peptide ◽  
Recent Onset

Previously, we demonstrated low-dose anti-thymocyte globulin (ATG) and granulocyte colony stimulating factor (GCSF) immunotherapy preserved C-peptide for two years in a pilot study of subjects with established type 1 diabetes (n=25). Herein, we evaluated the long-term outcomes of ATG/GCSF in study participants with five years of available follow-up data (n=15). The primary endpoint was area under the curve (AUC) C-peptide during a two-hour mixed-meal tolerance test (MMTT). After five years, there were no statistically significant differences in AUC C-peptide when comparing subjects who received ATG/GCSF versus placebo (p = 0.41). A modeling framework based on mean trajectories in C-peptide AUC over five years, accounting for differing trends between groups, was applied to re-categorize responders (n=9) and non-responders (n=7). ATG/GCSF reponders demonstrated nearly unchanged HbA1c over five years [mean (95% CI) adjusted change = 0.29% (-0.69%, 1.27%)], but the study was not powered for comparisons against non-responders 1.75% (-0.57%, 4.06%) and placebo 1.44% (0.21%, 2.66%). These data underscore the importance of long-term follow up in previous and ongoing phase 2 trials of low-dose ATG in recent-onset type 1 diabetes.

Managing Dependencies for Collaborative Design

2000 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai-Lu Wang ◽  
Yan Jin
Keyword(s):  
Collaborative Design ◽  
Formal Model ◽  
Design Stage ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Design Decomposition ◽  
Engineering Problems ◽  
Coordination Framework ◽  
Dependency Management ◽  
Coordination Methods

Abstract In collaborative engineering, the dependencies of engineering problems determine with whom and how designers should coordinate. Based on the directed dependency framework introduced in this research, we argue that the reciprocal and cyclic dependencies cause design iterations and inefficiencies, and should be avoided if possible. By studying the patterns of engineering dependencies and design decomposition, this paper provides an approach to manage the dependencies in order to avoid reciprocal and cyclic dependencies both in the early conceptual design stage and in design task arrangement stage, to make collaborative design more efficient. The long-term goal of this research is to develop a dependency-based coordination framework that consists of a formal model of engineering dependencies, and coordination methods, and guidelines for dependency-based engineering design and management. This paper describes our current dependency modeling framework and dependency management methods for collaborative design.

Cluster analysis for dispersion patterns near nuclear power plants in South Korea

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyunha Lee ◽  
Chunsil Jin ◽  
Chunji Kim
Keyword(s):  
Power Plant ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Flow Patterns ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Dispersion Patterns ◽  
The Impact

<p>  Clustering analysis using air parcel trajectories is actively used to investigate transport patterns of pollutants. To estimate the impact of nuclide dispersion from nuclear accident, comprehensive information based on long-term meteorological data is required to eatablish a complete and efficient public protection plan. Most of nuclear plants in South Korea are located in a complex terrain near coastal area that involves complicated meteorological phenomenon such as sea breezes and mountain-valley breezes. Robust approach based on long-term climatrological data is required to fully resolve the impacts near Korean nuclear power plants.</p><p>  In this study, we assessed the impacts of potential nuclear accident in South Korea by clustering dispersion patterns using 10-year meteorological data. Flow patterns are clustered using trajectory cluster analysis, and then combined with dispersion simulations to demonstrate the clustered dispersion patterns by each season and nuclear power plant.</p><p>  The long-term meteorological simulations from 2007 to 2016 were used to evaluate the potential impact of nuclear accidents in Korea, and the modeling framework was designed to show the impact map according to the flow patterns near each nuclear power plant. NOAA HYSPLIT modeling additional clustering analysis suggests that two or three cluster patterns for each power plant can be used. A total of 38 flow patterns are classified near the four nuclear plants in the previous season based on a 10-year wind field analysis. Korea has very complex terrain and coastal areas, and more sophisticated modeling efforts are needed to fully understand the more realistic dispersion characteristics of air masses. In terms of space-time resolution, updating land use information for simulation is very important for weather simulation near the surface of Korea.</p><p>  The results of this study can be used as a guideline for constructing a modeling framework for nuclide diffusion simulations, but given these complex simulation configurations, the results demonstrated in the current study are should be interpreted with caution.</p><p> </p>

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