scholarly journals Future Socio-Political Scenarios for Aquatic Resources in Europe: A Common Framework Based on Shared-Socioeconomic-Pathways (SSPs)

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
John K. Pinnegar ◽  
Katell G. Hamon ◽  
Cornelia M. Kreiss ◽  
Andrzej Tabeau ◽  
Sandra Rybicki ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Aquatic Resources ◽  
Horizon 2020 ◽  
Common Framework ◽  
Ipcc Sres ◽  
Political Economic

It has proven extremely challenging for researchers to predict with confidence how human societies might develop in the future, yet managers and industries need to make projections in order to test adaptation and mitigation strategies designed to build resilience to long-term shocks. This paper introduces exploratory scenarios with a particular focus on European aquaculture and fisheries and describes how these scenarios were designed. Short-, medium- and long-term developments in socio-political drivers may be just as important in determining profits, revenues and prospects in the aquaculture and fisheries industries as physical drivers such as long-term climate change. Four socio-political-economic futures were developed, based partly on the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) framework and partly on the newer system of Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). ‘Off the shelf’ narrative material as well as quantitative outputs were ‘borrowed’ from earlier frameworks but supplemented with material generated through in-depth stakeholder workshops involving industry and policy makers. Workshop participants were tasked to outline how they thought their sector might look under the four future worlds and, in particular, to make use of the PESTEL conceptual framework (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal) as an aide memoire to help define the scope of each scenario. This work was carried out under the auspices of the EU Horizon 2020 project CERES (Climate change and European aquatic RESources), and for each ‘CERES scenario’ (World Markets, National Enterprise, Global Sustainability and Local Stewardship), additional quantitative outputs were generated, including projections of future fuel and fish prices, using the MAGNET (Modular Applied GeNeral Equilibrium Tool) modeling framework. In developing and applying the CERES scenarios, we have demonstrated that the basic architecture is sufficiently flexible to be used at a wide diversity of scales. We urge the climate science community to adopt a similar scenarios framework, based around SSPs, to facilitate global cross-comparison of fisheries and aquaculture model outputs more broadly and to harmonize communication regarding potential future bioeconomic impacts of climate change.

scholarly journals High coverage COVID-19 mRNA vaccination rapidly controls SARS-CoV-2 transmission in long-term care facilities

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo M. De Salazar ◽  
Nicholas B. Link ◽  
Karuna Lamarca ◽  
Mauricio Santillana
Keyword(s):  
Long Term Care ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
High Coverage ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Early Effect ◽  
Care Facilities ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Background Residents of Long-Term Care Facilities (LTCFs) represent a major share of COVID-19 deaths worldwide. Measuring the vaccine effectiveness among the most vulnerable in these settings is essential to monitor and improve mitigation strategies. Methods We evaluate the early effect of the administration of BNT162b2-mRNA vaccine to individuals older than 64 years residing in LTCFs in Catalonia, Spain. We monitor all the SARS-CoV-2 documented infections and deaths among LTCFs residents once more than 70% of them were fully vaccinated (February–March 2021). We develop a modeling framework based on the relationship between community and LTCFs transmission during the pre-vaccination period (July–December 2020). We compute the total reduction in SARS-CoV-2 documented infections and deaths among residents of LTCFs over time, as well as the reduction in the detected transmission for all the LTCFs. We compare the true observations with the counterfactual predictions. Results We estimate that once more than 70% of the LTCFs population are fully vaccinated, 74% (58–81%, 90% CI) of COVID-19 deaths and 75% (36–86%, 90% CI) of all expected documented infections among LTCFs residents are prevented. Further, detectable transmission among LTCFs residents is reduced up to 90% (76–93%, 90% CI) relative to that expected given transmission in the community. Conclusions Our findings provide evidence that high-coverage vaccination is the most effective intervention to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission and death among LTCFs residents. Widespread vaccination could be a feasible avenue to control the COVID-19 pandemic conditional on key factors such as vaccine escape, roll out and coverage.

Contrasting Perspectives Regarding Climate Risks and Adaptation Strategies in the New York Metropolitan Area after Superstorm Sandy

2014 ◽  
Vol 01 (01) ◽  
pp. 1450005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie Miller ◽  
Griffin Kidd ◽  
Franco Montalto ◽  
Patrick Gurian ◽  
Cortney Worrall ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
New York ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Superstorm Sandy ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
York Metropolitan Area

The purpose of this study was to examine stakeholder perceptions of climate change and local adaptation strategies in the New York City area. A side-by-side comparison of expert and resident opinions provided a clear picture of the region's climate change attitude in the year following Superstorm Sandy. Semi-structured interviews with regional environmental experts provided material for a structured survey, which was then distributed to 100 experts and 250 residents in coastal NY and northern NJ counties. In the survey both stakeholder groups were asked to choose the top three climate threats to the NYC region and rate adaptation and mitigation strategies on a 1–5 Likert scale regarding their ability to protect the region and their cost-effectiveness. Results show that experts and residents agree that sea level rise, coastal flooding and storm surge, and an increased frequency and intensity of extreme events pose the greatest threats to NYC over the next 25 years. While both groups showed a preference for long-term planning over immediate action, experts and residents could not agree on which specific strategies would best serve the region. The aftermath of Superstorm Sandy had a strong impact on both the expert and resident opinions and efforts to monitor stakeholder opinions continue.

scholarly journals Perception and risk of Covid-19 and climate change: investigating analogies in a common framework

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonello Pasini ◽  
Fulvio Mazzocchi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Common Features ◽  
Risk Equation ◽  
Related Risk ◽  
Policy Level ◽  
Common Framework

This paper investigates analogies in the dynamics of Covid-19 pandemic and climate change. A comparison of their common features (such as nonlinearity and inertia) and differences helps us to achieve a correct scientific perception of both situations, increasing the chances of actions for their solutions. Besides, applying to both the risk equation provides different angles to analyse them, something that may result useful especially at the policy level. It shows that not only short-term interventions are needed, but also long-term strategies involving some structural changes. More specifically, it also shows that, even if climate change is probably more critical and long-lasting than the Covid-19 crisis, we still have, at least currently, more options for reducing its related risk.

Potential natural vegetation dynamics driven by future long-term climate change and its hydrological impacts in the Hanjiang River basin, China

2012 ◽  
Vol 43 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 73-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fei Yuan ◽  
Liliang Ren ◽  
Zhongbo Yu ◽  
Yonghua Zhu ◽  
Jing Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Natural Vegetation ◽  
Potential Natural Vegetation ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Hanjiang River ◽  
Ipcc Sres

Vegetation and land-surface hydrology are intrinsically linked under long-term climate change. This paper aims to evaluate the dynamics of potential natural vegetation arising from 21st century climate change and its possible impact on the water budget of the Hanjiang River basin in China. Based on predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC-SRES) A1 scenario from the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) regional climate model, changes in plant functional types (PFTs) and leaf area index (LAI) were simulated via the Lund-Potsdam-Jena dynamic global vegetation model. Subsequently, predicted PFTs and LAIs were employed in the Xinanjiang vegetation-hydrology model for rainfall–runoff simulations. Results reveal that future long-term changes in precipitation, air temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration would remarkably affect the spatiotemporal distribution of PFTs and LAIs. These climate-driven vegetation changes would further influence regional water balance. With the decrease in forest cover in the 21st century, plant transpiration and evaporative loss of intercepted canopy water will tend to fall while soil evaporation may rise considerably. As a result, total evapotranspiration may increase moderately with a slight increase in annual runoff depth. This indicates that, for long-term hydrological prediction, climate-induced changes in terrestrial vegetation cannot be neglected as the terrestrial biosphere plays an important role in land-surface hydrological responses.

Knowledge level and constraints in adopting the recommended mitigation strategies on climate change in Haryana

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 7-11
Author(s):  
Dilip S ◽  
, Joginder Singh Malik ◽  
R.N. Sheokand
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Knowledge Level ◽  
Advisory Services ◽  
Growing Seasons ◽  
Lack Of Information ◽  
High Knowledge ◽  
The Mean

The greatest influencer of agricultural productivity is the weather. Climate is typically defined as the normal weather, or more precisely, as the statistical explanation of important parameters in relations of the mean and variability over time scales extending from months to thousands or millions of years. Agriculture in India, as well as the respite of the world, is mostly reliant on the weather. Global warming has had an important impact on agriculture and its output. The shift in growing seasons and changes in agricultural zones have been exacerbated by rising temperatures. Changes in rainfall patterns, on the other hand, pose a severe threat to agriculture, affecting the country’s economy and food security. The sale of agricultural products such as fertilizers, agro-chemicals and tractors are also affected by the delayed or insufficient monsoons. As a result, the farmer’s income is impacted. The present study conducted during 2020-21 focuses on Knowledge level farmers on climate change and constraint experienced by the farmers in adopting recommended mitigation strategies in Hisar district. The majority of beneficiary farmers (48.89 per cent) had high knowledge level on Agro-met Advisory Services whereas majority of non-beneficiary farmers (67.76 per cent) had low knowledge level on Agro-met Advisory Services. Lack of technical skills and capacities for technology adoption, lack of awareness and sensitization about the creation and use of new technologies, non-availability of timely inputs, and lack of information about long-term mitigation strategies were the major constraints

scholarly journals Climate change and water resources management of Oran region

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 348-361
Author(s):  
Rachid Bouklia-Hassane ◽  
Djilali Yebdri ◽  
Abdellatif El-Bari Tidjani
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Two Dimensions ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Southern Mediterranean ◽  
Socioeconomic Dimension ◽  
Oran Region

Our work aims to contribute to the literature on the prospective study of the water balance in the Oran region, a major southern Mediterranean metropolis, by considering the socioeconomic dimension of this region and the dynamic of its climate change through 2011–2030. These two dimensions are important for the analysis of future changes in water stress in the region because they affect both the demand and the supply of the water resources. Unlike other studies, our methodological approach is based on an explicit modeling of the socioeconomic evolution in the region as well as of the dynamic of climate change. For this, we used a time-series modeling framework to predict the effects of change in climate. In addition to the assessment of the effects of the socioeconomic and climate changes on the water balance of the region. Our results, based on simulations using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) software, show that the current decoupling between the drinking sector from that of irrigation in the Oran region is not sustainable. Climate change will exacerbate this vulnerability. Only by integrating these two sectors, through a reuse of wastewater, can we consider the irrigation issue from a perspective of long-term sustainability in the region.

Ocean Fertilisation and Climate Change: The Need to Regulate Emerging High Seas Uses

2008 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 297-326 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosemary Rayfuse ◽  
Mark G. Lawrence ◽  
Kristina M. Gjerde
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Safety ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Marine Biodiversity ◽  
Regulatory Regime ◽  
National Jurisdiction ◽  
Global Regime ◽  
London Protocol ◽  
High Seas

Abstract Geo-engineering and environmental modification techniques are increasingly being proposed as climate change mitigation strategies. Ocean fertilisation has been promoted as a simple solution to the problem of increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. However, neither its environmental safety nor its efficacy has been adequately assessed. This article examines the legality of ocean fertilisation under the law of the sea and concludes that it is subject to regulation under the London Convention and London Protocol as its potential for harm is contrary to the aims of these agreements. Hence, the sale of carbon offsets to fund ocean fertilisation activities should be prohibited unless and until an adequate risk assessment based on independent peer-reviewed science has established that the benefits outweigh the potential for harm, and appropriate regulation is in place to ensure that real, measurable, long-term CO2 sequestration can be independently verified. The initial uncertainties surrounding the appropriate regulatory regime for ocean fertilisation highlight the need for a comprehensive global regime for the prior assessment and on-going monitoring of existing, new and emerging high seas activities and uses to ensure they do not have adverse impacts on marine biodiversity and the marine environment in areas beyond national jurisdiction.

Statistical modelling of grapevine phenology in Portuguese wine regions: observed trends and climate change projections

2015 ◽  
Vol 154 (5) ◽  
pp. 795-811 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. FRAGA ◽  
J. A. SANTOS ◽  
J. MOUTINHO-PEREIRA ◽  
C. CARLOS ◽  
J. SILVESTRE ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Statistical Modelling ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Model Errors ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Wine Making ◽  
Temperature Thresholds ◽  
Long Term Impact ◽  
High Degree

SUMMARYPhenological models are considered key tools for the short-term planning of viticultural activities and long-term impact assessment of climate change. In the present study, statistical phenological models were developed for budburst (BUD), flowering (FLO) and veraison (VER) of 16 grapevine varieties (autochthonous and international) from the Portuguese wine-making regions of Douro, Lisbon and Vinhos Verdes. For model calibration, monthly averages of daily minimum (Tmin), maximum (Tmax) and mean (Tmean) temperatures were selected as potential regressors by a stepwise methodology. Significant predictors included Tmin in January–February–March for BUD, Tmax in March–April for FLO, and Tmin, Tmax and Tmean in March–July for VER. Developed models showed a high degree of accuracy after validation, representing 0·71 of total variance for BUD, 0·83 for FLO and 0·78 for VER. Model errors were in most cases < 5 days, outperforming classic growing degree-day models, including models based on optimized temperature thresholds for each variety. Applied to the future scenarios RCP4·5/8·5, projections indicate earlier phenophase onset and shorter interphases for all varieties. These changes may bring significant challenges to the Portuguese wine-making sector, highlighting the need for suitable adaptation/mitigation strategies, to ensure its future sustainability.

scholarly journals Aligning Socio-economic Field Laboratories and Agent Based Models assessing local climate change adaptation measures of Andean farmers

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 7-17
Author(s):  
André Lindner ◽  
Francois Jost ◽  
Mariana Vidal Merino ◽  
Natalia Reategui ◽  
Jürgen Pretzsch
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Communication Tool ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The Impact

The increase in extreme weather events is a major consequence of climate change in tropical mountain rangeslike the Andes of Peru. The impact on farming households is of growing interest since adaptation and mitigation strategies are required to keep race with environmental conditions and to prevent people from increasing poverty. In this regard it becomes more and more obvious that a bottom-up approach incorporating the local socioeconomic processes and their interplay is needed. Socio-economic field laboratories are used to understand such processes on site. This integrates multi-disciplinary and participatory analyses of production and its relationship with biophysical and socio-economic determinants. Farmers react individually based on their experiences, financial situation, labor conditions, or attitude among others. In this regard socio-economic field laboratories also serve to develop and test scenarios about development paths, which involve the combination of both, local and scientific knowledge. For a comprehensive understanding of the multitude of interactions the agent-based modeling framework MPMAS (Mathematical Programming-based Multi-Agent System) is applied. In combination with continued ground-truthing, the model is used to gain insights into the functioning of the complex social system and to forecast its development in the near future. The assessment of the effect of humans’ behavior in changing environmental conditions including the comparison of different sites, transforms the model to a communication tool bridging the gap between adaptation policies and local realities.

scholarly journals Predicting future US water yield and ecosystem productivity by linking an ecohydrological model to WRF dynamically downscaled climate projections

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 12703-12746
Author(s):  
S. Sun ◽  
G. Sun ◽  
E. Cohen ◽  
S. G. McNulty ◽  
P. Caldwell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Stress Index ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Ecosystem Productivity ◽  
The Future ◽  
Ecohydrological Model ◽  
Ipcc Sres ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. Quantifying the potential impacts of climate change on water yield and ecosystem productivity (i.e., carbon balances) is essential to developing sound watershed restoration plans, and climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. This study links an ecohydrological model (Water Supply and Stress Index, WaSSI) with WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) dynamically downscaled climate projections of the HadCM3 model under the IPCC SRES A2 emission scenario. We evaluated the future (2031–2060) changes in evapotranspiration (ET), water yield (Q) and gross primary productivity (GPP) from the baseline period of 1979–2007 across the 82 773 watersheds (12 digit Hydrologic Unit Code level) in the conterminous US (CONUS), and evaluated the future annual and monthly changes of hydrology and ecosystem productivity for the 18 Water Resource Regions (WRRs) or 2-digit HUCs. Across the CONUS, the future multi-year means show increases in annual precipitation (P) of 45 mm yr−1 (6 %), 1.8 °C increase in temperature (T), 37 mm yr−1 (7 %) increase in ET, 9 mm yr−1 (3 %) increase in Q, and 106 g C m−2 yr−1 (9 %) increase in GPP. Response to climate change was highly variable across the 82, 773 watersheds, but in general, the majority would see consistent increases in all variables evaluated. Over half of the 82 773 watersheds, mostly found in the northeast and the southern part of the southwest would have an increase in annual Q (>100 mm yr−1 or 20 %). This study provides an integrated method and example for comprehensive assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on watershed water balances and ecosystem productivity at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Results will be useful for policy-makers and land managers in formulating appropriate watershed-specific strategies for sustaining water and carbon sources in the face of climate change.

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