Short- and Long-Run Determinants of Tourist Flows: The Case of South Korea

2017 ◽  
pp. 861-872
Author(s):  
George Agiomirgianakis ◽  
Dimitrios Serenis ◽  
Nicholas Tsounis
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Tourist Flows

Technological progress, non-price factors competitiveness, and changes in trade income elasticities: empirical evidence from South Korea and Hong Kong

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-26
Author(s):  
Marco Flávio Cunha Resende ◽  
Vitor Leone ◽  
Daniele Almeida Raposo Torres ◽  
Simeon Coleman
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Hong Kong ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Technological Progress ◽  
Innovation System ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Income Elasticities ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Catch Up

In the balance-of-payments-constrained growth model literature, income elasticities (IEs) are considered as the crucial element determining a country's long-run growth rate. Although the extant literature accepts that technology matters for IEs magnitude, explanations linking technology and IEs magnitude are limited. In this paper, we make use of the National Innovation System (NIS) concept from the Evolutionary School to explain the channels through which the size of a country's IEs is influenced by the level of development of its NIS, which in turn is a channel through which the non-price competitiveness factors work. Additionally, we empirically test the hypothesis that the catch-up allowed by NIS developments achieved in South Korea and Hong Kong improved their IEs over the 1980–1995 period. Our empirical results suggest a link between the level of NIS development and the size of the IEs.

scholarly journals Cross-Country Stock Market Integration and Portfolio Diversification Opportunities Evidence from Developed, Emerging and Frontier Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sultan Salahuddin ◽  
Muhammad Kashif ◽  
Mobeen Ur Rehman
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Market Integration ◽  
Portfolio Diversification ◽  
Stock Market Integration ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Low Correlation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Cross Country

This study examines the stock market integration in cross-regional countries of developed, emerging, and frontier markets based on low correlation. The objective of the study is to identify the diversification opportunities and link between correlation and integration among country-level stocks. For this purpose, we select 62 countries from all three classifications of developed, emerging, and Frontier Markets. We constructed portfolios by selecting least 5 correlated countries denoted with Pjt in which each country has a correlation of less than .10 with base country Pit. Thirty-two countries fulfill the criteria of low correlation; 7, 13 and 12 from developed, emerging and frontier markets, respectively. Panel co-integration and VECM are applied to test the stock market integration and long & short-run linkages between country-level portfolios designed based on low correlation criteria. After conditioning for oil price movements, S&P 500 and exchange rate, we found Canada, France and Germany from developed category; Chile, Colombia, Greece, South Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan and Philippine from emerging category; and Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, and Sri Lanka from frontier category have long-run diversification opportunities. Countries including; Canada and Italy from developed category; Argentina, Chile, China, Colombia, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Mexico and the Philippine from emerging category; and Bahrain, Kuwait, Morocco, Nigeria, and Tunisia from emerging category have short-run diversification opportunities.

Determining Terrorism Proxies for the Relationship with Tourism Demand: A Global View

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stathis Polyzos ◽  
Georgia Papadopoulou ◽  
Anestis Fotiadis
Keyword(s):  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Terrorist Activity ◽  
Regional Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Tourist Flows ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Tourism Arrivals

This study examines the determinants of the relationship between terrorism and tourism, by testing different proxies to assess both the frequency and the severity of terrorist activity. The methodological approach includes implementing Principal Component Analysis into four different sets of possible proxies for terrorism in order to examine their relationship with international tourism arrivals over the period 1998-2018. The dataset includes world tourist flows and terrorist incidents anywhere in the world in order to avoid regional effects. The empirical results show that all candidate proxies exhibit a long-run, negative relationship with tourism, while there is also an impact of tourism on terrorism, with conflicting directions between the short run and the long run. The findings suggest that increased terrorist activity may cause destination substitution in the short run but will have adverse effects in the long run. In addition, authorities should be prepared for a rise in terrorist incidents during periods with increased tourist flows. Finally, research on terrorism should take into account the qualitative characteristics of terrorist activities.

Emissions and trade in Southeast and East Asian countries: a panel co-integration analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 460-475 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mansor H. Ibrahim ◽  
Syed Aun R. Rizvi
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
South Korea ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Trade Policies ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyse the implication of trade on carbon emissions in a panel of eight highly trading Southeast and East Asian countries, namely, China, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, Hong Kong, The Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Design/methodology/approach – The analysis relies on the standard quadratic environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) extended to include energy consumption and international trade. A battery of panel unit root and co-integration tests is applied to establish the variables’ stochastic properties and their long-run relations. Then, the specified EKC is estimated using the panel dynamic ordinary least square (OLS) estimation technique. Findings – The panel co-integration statistics verifies the validity of the extended EKC for the countries under study. Estimation of the long-run EKC via the dynamic OLS estimation method reveals the environmentally degrading effects of trade in these countries, especially in ASEAN and plus South Korea and Hong Kong. Practical implications – These countries are heavily dependent on trade for their development processes, and as such, their impacts on CO2 emissions would be highly relevant for assessing their trade policies, along the line of the gain-from-trade hypothesis, the race-to-the-bottom hypothesis and the pollution-safe-haven hypothesis. Originality/value – The analysis adds to existing literature by focusing on the highly trading nations of Southeast and East Asian countries. The results suggest that reassessment of trade policies in these countries is much needed and it must go beyond the sole pursuit of economic development via trade.

scholarly journals COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES OF EU COUNTRIES IN THE CONTEXT OF TOURISM PROMOTION POLICY IN UKRAINE

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nataliya Pochernina
Keyword(s):  
Main Tool ◽  
The State ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Competitive Advantages ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
Travel And Tourism ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Tourist Flows

The pandemic has become a major challenge for the economies of all countries. Travel and tourism are one of the areas most affected. Restrictions on travel both within and outside the country have led to a sharp decline in tourist flows. The challenge of maintaining a business has become paramount for businesses in the hospitality industry. At the same time, the goal of reviving the sphere of tourism has become very important for the economic policy of the state both at the regional and national levels. This is due to the fact that the field of travel and tourism has a significant multiplier effect on the development of other sectors of the economy, plays an important role in achieving the goals of sustainable development and promotes interculturalism. One of the tasks of the anti-crisis policy for the tourism sector is to consolidate the efforts of business, the state and society to preserve the existing potential. In the field of international tourism, this task concerns the restoration of tourist flows and the preservation of competitive advantages that were gained before the pandemic. Therefore, quantifying the identified competitive advantages in the long run is relevant. The article provides a comparative analysis of the competitive advantages of the European Union in the export of tourist services to Ukraine. The object of research is the field of outbound organized tourism. The analysis was performed for the period 2006-2019. The theory of competitive advantages in foreign trade is the methodological basis of the study. The index of identified competitive advantages of Hillman's exports is the main tool of the methodology. The division of EU countries into groups was based on the results obtained. Priority areas of the policy of stimulating entrepreneurship in the field of tourism in Ukraine have been identified for each group of EU countries. The practical significance of the obtained results lies in the possibility of their use in the process of developing anti-crisis programs to overcome the effects of the pandemic in tourism, as well as in the strategic planning of the travel and tourism sector at the level of Ukraine and the country as a whole.

Asymmetric Tourism Demand Responses to Exchange Rate Fluctuations in South Korea

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-75
Author(s):  
Junwook Chi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Demand Functions ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuations ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Asymmetrical Pattern ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes

Since perfectly reversible demand functions are generally used in tourism demand modeling, little attention has been given to the asymmetric tourist responses to exchange rate changes. This article attempts to fill this gap by examining two types of the asymmetric demand responses associated with exchange rate fluctuations: 1) currency appreciations and depreciations and 2) rises and falls in exchange rate volatility. Using the linear and nonlinear ARDL models, this study finds evidence of the asymmetrical pattern of long-run adjustment with respect to currency value and exchange rate volatility changes. In the majority of cases, tourists are sensitive to exchange rate changes when the Korean won appreciates, but they are insensitive when the Korean won depreciates, suggesting that foreign visitors in South Korea are loss averse. Furthermore, increases and decreases in exchange rate volatility tend to affect Korea's inbound tourism demand in an asymmetric manner. These findings imply that the assumption of perfectly reversible tourism demand responses to exchange rate changes can be restrictive.

scholarly journals Naive Forecast for COVID-19 in Utah Based on the South Korea and Italy Models-the Fluctuation between Two Extremes

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (8) ◽  
pp. 2750 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fares Qeadan ◽  
Trenton Honda ◽  
Lisa H. Gren ◽  
Jennifer Dailey-Provost ◽  
L. Scott Benson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Significant Role ◽  
Empirical Data ◽  
Logistic Model ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Local Communities ◽  
The South ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Differences in jurisdictional public health actions have played a significant role in the relative success of local communities in combating and containing the COVID-19 pandemic. We forecast the possible COVID-19 outbreak in one US state (Utah) by applying empirical data from South Korea and Italy, two countries that implemented disparate public health actions. Forecasts were created by aligning the start of the pandemic in Utah with that in South Korea and Italy, getting a short-run forecast based on actual daily rates of spread, and long-run forecast by employing a log-logistic model with four parameters. Applying the South Korea model, the epidemic peak in Utah is 169 cases/day, with epidemic resolution by the end of May. Applying the Italy model, new cases are forecast to exceed 200/day by mid-April, with the potential for 250 new cases a day at the epidemic peak, with the epidemic continuing through the end of August. We identify a 3-month variation in the likely length of the pandemic, a 1.5-fold difference in the number of daily infections at outbreak peak, and a 3-fold difference in the expected cumulative cases when applying the experience of two developed countries in handling this virus to the Utah context.

Modelling Quarterly Tourist Flows to Australia Using Cointegration Analysis

1996 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 203-222 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Kulendran
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Demand Function ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Relative Price ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Econometric Modelling ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Tourist Flows ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Modelling Approach

The purpose of this paper is to use cointegration analysis to estimate the long-run relationship between quarterly tourist flows to Australia from the USA, Japan, to UK and New Zealand and the factors such as income, price and airfare that influence arrivals. To this end, the demand function approach to tourism flow modelling is employed. The new econometric modelling approach of cointegration analysis adopted in this paper has not been used in previous studies of tourism demand modelling. This method is capable of overcoming the problem of ‘spurious regression’ associated with traditional econometric modelling approach for estimating the tourism demand function. For the countries of origin, the estimated long-run income elasticity is greater than one, and considerably higher for Japan. UK tourists are more responsive to changes in airfares than to changes in income. The estimated long-run elasticity with respect to the relative price variable for the UK and Japan is close to unity, and for the USA and New Zealand it is greater than one.

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