scholarly journals Naive Forecast for COVID-19 in Utah Based on the South Korea and Italy Models-the Fluctuation between Two Extremes

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (8) ◽  
pp. 2750 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fares Qeadan ◽  
Trenton Honda ◽  
Lisa H. Gren ◽  
Jennifer Dailey-Provost ◽  
L. Scott Benson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Significant Role ◽  
Empirical Data ◽  
Logistic Model ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Local Communities ◽  
The South ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Differences in jurisdictional public health actions have played a significant role in the relative success of local communities in combating and containing the COVID-19 pandemic. We forecast the possible COVID-19 outbreak in one US state (Utah) by applying empirical data from South Korea and Italy, two countries that implemented disparate public health actions. Forecasts were created by aligning the start of the pandemic in Utah with that in South Korea and Italy, getting a short-run forecast based on actual daily rates of spread, and long-run forecast by employing a log-logistic model with four parameters. Applying the South Korea model, the epidemic peak in Utah is 169 cases/day, with epidemic resolution by the end of May. Applying the Italy model, new cases are forecast to exceed 200/day by mid-April, with the potential for 250 new cases a day at the epidemic peak, with the epidemic continuing through the end of August. We identify a 3-month variation in the likely length of the pandemic, a 1.5-fold difference in the number of daily infections at outbreak peak, and a 3-fold difference in the expected cumulative cases when applying the experience of two developed countries in handling this virus to the Utah context.

scholarly journals International trade in services and inequalities

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 1069-1075 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sylvain Petit
Keyword(s):  
Wage Inequality ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Skilled Workers ◽  
Business Services ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Unskilled Workers ◽  
Tourism Services ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the impact of the international openness in tourism services trade on wage inequality between highly skilled, semi-skilled, and unskilled workers in the tourism industry. The sample covers 10 developed countries and expands over 15 years. A cointegrated panel data model and an error correction model were used to distinguish between the short- and long-run effects. The results are compared to those of openness of business services and manufactured goods. The findings point out that tourism increases wage inequality at the expense of the least skilled workers in the long run and the short run.

scholarly journals Economic Impacts of Banning Subtherapeutic Use of Antibiotics in Swine Production

2002 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 489-500 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Wade Brorsen ◽  
Terry Lehenbauer ◽  
Dasheng Ji ◽  
Joe Connor
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Bacterial Resistance ◽  
Antimicrobial Agents ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Swine Production ◽  
Livestock Feed ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Public Health Officials ◽  
Growth Promotants

Public health officials and physicians are concerned about possible development of bacterial resistance and potential effects on human health that may be related to the use of antimicrobial agents in livestock feed. The focus of this research is aimed at determining the economic effects that subtherapeutic bans of antimicrobials would have on both swine producers and consumers. The results show that a ban on growth promotants for swine would be costly, totaling $242.5 million annually, with swine producers sharing the larger portion in the short run and consumers sharing the larger portion in the long run.

scholarly journals Analysis of the Keynesian Theory of Employment and Sectoral Job Creation: The Case of the South African Manufacturing Sector

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 123-143
Author(s):  
Thomas Habanabakize ◽  
Paul-Francois Muzindutsi
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Job Creation ◽  
The South ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Integration Approach ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Investment Spending

Abstract The manufacturing sector is one of the backbones of the South African economy, and yet is one of the economic sectors facing challenges in job creation. This study analysed the long-run and short-run effects of aggregate expenditure components on job creation in the South African manufacturing sector. A Vector Autoregressive (VAR) with Johansen co-integration approach was used to analyse quarterly data from 1994 to 2015. The findings are that there is a long-run relationship between aggregate expenditure and job creation in the South African manufacturing sector, with government and investment spending being the major components of aggregate expenditure that create jobs in the South African manufacturing sector. Conversely, consumption spending destroys jobs in the manufacturing sector, while net exports have no significant effect on job creation. The short-run relationship between variables was not significant. Recommendations are that more effort should be put into investment spending, and government should spend more on investment than on consumption spending - in order to increase job creation in the manufacturing sector.

On the link between HIV prevalence and health expenditure: an asymmetric analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 509-526
Author(s):  
Massomeh Hajilee ◽  
Mahsa Oroojeni Mohammad Javad ◽  
Linda A. Hayes
Keyword(s):  
Health Expenditure ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Hiv Prevalence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Hiv Aids

PurposeIndividuals' health is considered one of the major determinants of higher levels of productivity and economic development. Over the past century, the widespread occurrence of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) has been a serious threat to economic development around the globe and has caused a dramatic fall in the life expectancy rate in many nations. This is the first study that examines the impact of HIV prevalence on health expenditure at the national level employing two linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models and simultaneously tests the long-run and short-run relationship for five selected developed countries. The authors employ annual data from 1981 to 2016. They find that HIV prevalence has a significant impact on health expenditure in the short-run and long-run in all five countries using the linear model and four of the countries in the nonlinear model. They find that HIV/AIDS prevalence has a significant short-run and long-run asymmetric impact on health expenditure of almost all selected developed economies.Design/methodology/approachThe authors are employing two linear and nonlinear ARDL models and simultaneously test the long-run and short-run relationship for five selected developed countries.FindingsThe authors find that HIV/AIDS prevalence has a significant short-run and long-run asymmetric impact on health expenditure of almost all selected developed economies.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first research work that empirically examines the link between HIV prevalence and health expenditure for this group of countries using linear and nonlinear ARDL approach for short run and long run.

scholarly journals Cost effectiveness of health expenditures: A macro level study for developing and developed countries

2020 ◽  
pp. 26-42
Author(s):  
Syeda Anam Fatima Rizvi
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Health Spending ◽  
Health Expenditures ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Developing And Developed Countries

Resource availability matters the most in health care system-based outcomes. But health spending is highly unequal across the world and presents varying outcomes. This study aims to investigate the missing part that why some countries failed to have reasonable outcomes despite spending more than those countries that spend less. This study intends to include all those factors that are responsible for improving the cost-effectiveness of health expenditures. The study took two data sets, one from the developing countries and second of developed countries as per World Bank classification. As anticipated, there are significant differences in health per capita expenditures. Determinants were also found to behave differently both in the short run and long run as well as across the two data sets.

scholarly journals Cross-Country Stock Market Integration and Portfolio Diversification Opportunities Evidence from Developed, Emerging and Frontier Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sultan Salahuddin ◽  
Muhammad Kashif ◽  
Mobeen Ur Rehman
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Market Integration ◽  
Portfolio Diversification ◽  
Stock Market Integration ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Low Correlation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Cross Country

This study examines the stock market integration in cross-regional countries of developed, emerging, and frontier markets based on low correlation. The objective of the study is to identify the diversification opportunities and link between correlation and integration among country-level stocks. For this purpose, we select 62 countries from all three classifications of developed, emerging, and Frontier Markets. We constructed portfolios by selecting least 5 correlated countries denoted with Pjt in which each country has a correlation of less than .10 with base country Pit. Thirty-two countries fulfill the criteria of low correlation; 7, 13 and 12 from developed, emerging and frontier markets, respectively. Panel co-integration and VECM are applied to test the stock market integration and long & short-run linkages between country-level portfolios designed based on low correlation criteria. After conditioning for oil price movements, S&P 500 and exchange rate, we found Canada, France and Germany from developed category; Chile, Colombia, Greece, South Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan and Philippine from emerging category; and Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, and Sri Lanka from frontier category have long-run diversification opportunities. Countries including; Canada and Italy from developed category; Argentina, Chile, China, Colombia, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Mexico and the Philippine from emerging category; and Bahrain, Kuwait, Morocco, Nigeria, and Tunisia from emerging category have short-run diversification opportunities.

Persistence of profitability in top firms: does it vary across sectors?

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 269-287
Author(s):  
Parneet Kaur Bhangu
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze variations in the degree of persistence of profitability across diverse economic sectors and industry groups over the time period of 1990-2014 for a sample of top publically listed firms belonging to a selected set of developed and developing economies. Design/methodology/approach Degree of profit persistence has been estimated using Mueller’s (1990) autoregressive methodology. Firms were classified into different economic sectors and industry groups as per the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS). The examination of inter-sectoral variations in profit persistence has been performed by comparing mean values of estimated short-run and long-run profit persistence parameter for all firms and between firms belonging to the developed and developing countries, respectively. Findings Firms in consumer staples, consumer discretionary and health care enjoy persistent above the norm returns, unlike firms in traditional industries, utilities and energy sectors, which are characterized by low persistence and below the norm returns. A high degree of profit persistence is observed in health care and idea- and technology-intensive sector in the developed countries; however, in the developing countries, profits persist higher in consumer discretionary and capital-intensive telecommunication services sectors. Originality/value The study provides a holistic examination of inter-sectoral variations in profit persistence of top firms in developed and developing economies using a uniform methodology and data set. It can serve as an aid to the competition commissions and anti-trust regulatory authorities to formulate policies for curtailing anti-competitive activities in certain sectors.

The Relevance of the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis to Malaysia

2017 ◽  
pp. 188-202 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chor Foon Tang ◽  
Eu Chye Tan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Full Sample ◽  
Aggregated Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Disaggregated Data

This paper explored whether the tourism-led growth (TLG) hypothesis is empirically relevant to Malaysia based upon both full sample and rolling sample analyses. Data from January 1995 to December 2010 have been utilised for the purpose. Instead of relying upon aggregated data of tourist arrivals, disaggregated data of arrivals from 12 major tourism markets are relied upon for more insightful and accurate findings. The empirical results suggest that there was cointegration between Malaysia's economic growth and tourist arrivals from these tourism markets. However, the results of the full sample Granger causality test indicate that only 2 out of 12 tourism markets contributed to economic growth in the short-run. The TLG hypothesis is only supported in the long run by tourist arrivals from 10 out of the 12 tourism markets. The rolling-based Granger causality test shows that it is also these 10 markets situated mostly in developed countries that could provide a stable support for the TLG hypothesis.

Input Subsidies to Agriculture: Case of Subsidies to Fertiliser Industry across Countries

2007 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 35-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sunil Ashra ◽  
Malini Chakravarty
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Farm Production ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Food Subsidies ◽  
The Rich ◽  
Uncertain Future ◽  
The Developed Countries

The fertiliser industry in developing countries is facing challenge and uncertain future due to their commitments to the WTO. This is part of the reason that the developing countries are pushing for reducing of subsidies given by the developed countries to their agriculture which is much bigger making the subsidies to agriculture becoming a contentious issue in the WTO negotiations. Some of the subsidies are accepted in the WTO context whereas the others are not. In India the farm sector subsidies are given in the form of irrigation, electricity, fertilisers etc. By far the fertiliser and food subsidies are the most significant amounting to about US$9.3 billion in 2004 (less than 0.5 percent of GDP). Thus, while from the WTO point of view, it is not necessary to reduce fertiliser subsidy in India. However, because of the WTO commitments, quantitative restrictions in this sector had to be removed by the end of March 2001 in India. Cheaper imports have been threatening the domestic industry specially the units that do not use gas as feedstock. In the short run domestic companies may enjoy the protection of differential subsidy in some form or the other. But in the long run they will have to compete on a stand-alone basis. This paper examines the experience and impact of fertiliser subsidy across various countries and shows that it is a common tool to promote farm production. But the evidence shows that the fertiliser subsidy tends to benefit the rich farmers more than the poor farmers. The study examines the different approaches used by the policymakers to reach the targeted farmers. In this context the paper records the evidence from some countries where the fertiliser industry has come forward and complemented the policymakers' efforts to meet this objective and in the process ensured their better future.

scholarly journals HOSPITAL MORBIDITY AND COLORECTAL CANCER MORTALITY: IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH IN BRAZIL

2020 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 182-187 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramona Garcia Souza DOMINGUEZ ◽  
Ana Luiza BIERRENBACH
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
The South ◽  
The North ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
Colorectal Cancer Prevention ◽  
Hospital Morbidity

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer is a serious public health problem and one of the most common cancer worldwide. Countries around the world have shown different trends. While incidence and mortality rates for colorectal cancer are on an upward trend in developing countries, these rates have been on a downward trend in most developed countries. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the temporal trend of morbimortality by colorectal cancer in Brazil between 2002 and 2016. METHODS: Descriptive, time series research. Data were extracted from the national information systems for hospitalizations and deaths of the respective years. RESULTS: There were increasing trends in hospital morbidity and mortality from colorectal cancer in all regions of the country, with the very elderly individuals dying at a higher rate. Women (52.1%) were more affected than men, but death rates were higher for males aged 60 years or more. Regional disparities were evident, with almost 80% of deaths occurring in the South and Southeast, with the largest annual increase in the South and the lowest in the North. Regarding hospitalization, South and Southeast presented higher annual growths. CONCLUSION: These data add knowledge about the profile of public hospitalizations and deaths, reaffirming that colorectal cancer contributes to an important burden of disease and mortality in Brazil. These elements have implications for the review of colorectal cancer prevention and control strategies, as well as for public health investments.

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