Future Air Pollution in Europe from a Multi-physics Ensemble of Climate Change-Air Quality Projections

Introduction and Hypothesis: Stroke is a leading cause of death and the major cause of disability in the world. However, few studies applied multilevel regression techniques to explore the association of stroke risk with climate change and air pollution. In the study, we aimed to test the hypothesis that the disproportionately distributed stroke rates across the counties and cities within a country are significantly associated with air pollution and temperature. Methods: We used data from U.S. 1118 counties in 49 states, which had estimated measures of particulate matter (PM)2.5 for the years 2010-2013, and data from China 120 cities in 32 provinces (including 4 municipalities), which had measures of Air Pollution Index (API) for the years 2012-2013. We assessed the association between air quality and prevalence of stroke using spatial mapping, autocorrelation and multilevel regression models. Results: Findings from the U.S. show that the highest average PM2.5 level was in July (10.2 μg/m3) and the lowest in October (7.63 μg/m3) for the years 2010-2013. Annual average PM2.5 levels were significantly different across the 1118 counties, and were significantly associated with stroke rates. Multilevel regression analysis indicated that the prevalence of stroke significantly increased by 1.19% for every 10 μg/m3 increase of PM2.5 (p<0.001). Significant variability in PM2.5 by states was observed (p=0.019). More than 70% of the variation in stroke rates existed across the counties (p=0.017) and 18.7% existed across the states (p=0.047). In China, the highest API was observed in the month of December, with a result of 75.76 in 2012 and 97.51 in 2013. The lowest API was observed in July, with a result of 51.21 in 2012, and 54.23 in 2013. Prevalence of stroke was significantly higher in cities with higher API concentrations. The associations between air quality and risk of stroke were significantly mediated by temperatures. Conclusions: The study, using nationally representative data, is one of the first studies to address a positive and complex association between air quality and prevalence of stroke, and a potential interaction effect of temperatures on the air - stroke association.

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Air Pollution, Air Quality, and Climate Change

Heat Advisory ◽

10.7551/mitpress/9780262034876.003.0007 ◽

2016 ◽

Author(s):

Alan H. Lockwood

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Air Pollution ◽

Carbon Monoxide ◽

Air Quality ◽

Quality Standards ◽

Ambient Air ◽

Ozone Production ◽

Atmospheric Water ◽

Particulate Pollution ◽

Volatile Organic

The effects of climate change on air quality are difficult to model due to the large number of unpredictable variables. Hotter temperatures favor ozone production. Higher atmospheric water content may blunt this effect in some regions. Higher levels of natural volatile organic compounds (VOCs), such as terpenes from plants, are likely to act synergistically with anthropogenic VOCs to favor ozone production. Droughts increase wildfire risks that produce particulate pollution and carbon monoxide, a VOC involved in ozone production. Some models predict increased ozone concentrations in many urban settings. Future revisions of National Ambient Air Quality Standards, a process driven by politics and science, should consider these effects.

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Projections of mid-century summer air-quality for North America: effects of changes in climate and precursor emissions

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-12-5367-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 12 (12) ◽

pp. 5367-5390 ◽

Cited By ~ 49

Author(s):

J. Kelly ◽

P. A. Makar ◽

D. A. Plummer

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Air Pollution ◽

Air Quality ◽

North American ◽

General Circulation ◽

Climate Model ◽

Circulation Model ◽

Future Climate ◽

Climate Simulation ◽

Ammonia Emissions

Abstract. Ten year simulations of North American current and future air-quality were carried out using a regional air-quality model driven by a regional climate model, in turn driven by a general circulation model. Three separate summer scenarios were performed: a scenario representing the years 1997 to 2006, and two SRES A2 climate scenarios for the years 2041 to 2050. The first future climate scenario makes use of 2002 anthropogenic precursor emissions, and the second applied emissions scaling factors derived from the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathway 6 (RCP 6) scenario to estimate emissions for 2050 from existing 2020 projections. Ten-year averages of ozone and PM2.5 at North American monitoring network stations were used to evaluate the model's current chemical climatology. The model was found to have a similar performance for ozone as when driven by an operational weather forecast model. The PM2.5 predictions had larger negative biases, likely resulting from the absence of rainwater evaporation, and from sub-regional negative biases in the surface temperature fields, in the version of the climate model used here. The differences between the two future climate simulations and the current climate simulation were used to predict the changes to air-quality that might be expected in a future warmer climate, if anthropogenic precursor emissions remain constant at their current levels, versus if the RCP 6 emissions controls were adopted. Metrics of concentration, human health, and ecosystem damage were compared for the simulations. The scenario with future climate and current anthropogenic emissions resulted in worse air-quality than for current conditions – that is, the effect of climate-change alone, all other factors being similar, would be a worsening of air-quality. These effects are spatially inhomogeneous, with the magnitude and sign of the changes varying with region. The scenario with future climate and RCP 6 emissions for 2050 resulted in an improved air-quality, with decreases in key pollutant concentrations, in acute human mortality associated with air-pollution, and in sulphur and ozone deposition to the ecosystem. The positive outcomes of the RCP 6 emissions reductions were found to be of greater magnitude than the negative outcomes of climate change alone. The RCP 6 scenario however resulted in an increase in the deposition of nitrogen, as a result of increased ammonia emissions expected in that scenario, compared to current ammonia emissions levels. The results of the study raise the possibility that simultaneous reductions of greenhouse gases and air pollution precursors may further reduce air pollution levels, with the added benefits of an immediate reduction in the impacts of air pollution on human and ecosystem health. Further scenarios to investigate this possibility are therefore recommended.

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Source influence on emission pathways and ambient PM<sub>2.5</sub> pollution over India (2015–2050)

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-18-8017-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 18 (11) ◽

pp. 8017-8039 ◽

Cited By ~ 45

Author(s):

Chandra Venkataraman ◽

Michael Brauer ◽

Kushal Tibrewal ◽

Pankaj Sadavarte ◽

Qiao Ma ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Air Pollution ◽

Particulate Matter ◽

Air Quality ◽

Urban Areas ◽

Energy Demand ◽

Biomass Combustion ◽

Anthropogenic Source ◽

Population Exposure ◽

Future Economic Development ◽

Future Air Pollution

Abstract. India is currently experiencing degraded air quality, and future economic development will lead to challenges for air quality management. Scenarios of sectoral emissions of fine particulate matter and its precursors were developed and evaluated for 2015–2050, under specific pathways of diffusion of cleaner and more energy-efficient technologies. The impacts of individual source sectors on PM2.5 concentrations were assessed through systematic simulations of spatially and temporally resolved particulate matter concentrations, using the GEOS-Chem model, followed by population-weighted aggregation to national and state levels. We find that PM2.5 pollution is a pan-India problem, with a regional character, and is not limited to urban areas or megacities. Under present-day emissions, levels in most states exceeded the national PM2.5 annual standard (40 µg m−3). Sources related to human activities were responsible for the largest proportion of the present-day population exposure to PM2.5 in India. About 60 % of India's mean population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations come from anthropogenic source sectors, while the remainder are from other sources, windblown dust and extra-regional sources. Leading contributors are residential biomass combustion, power plant and industrial coal combustion and anthropogenic dust (including coal fly ash, fugitive road dust and waste burning). Transportation, brick production and distributed diesel were other contributors to PM2.5. Future evolution of emissions under regulations set at current levels and promulgated levels caused further deterioration of air quality in 2030 and 2050. Under an ambitious prospective policy scenario, promoting very large shifts away from traditional biomass technologies and coal-based electricity generation, significant reductions in PM2.5 levels are achievable in 2030 and 2050. Effective mitigation of future air pollution in India requires adoption of aggressive prospective regulation, currently not formulated, for a three-pronged switch away from (i) biomass-fuelled traditional technologies, (ii) industrial coal-burning and (iii) open burning of agricultural residue. Future air pollution is dominated by industrial process emissions, reflecting larger expansion in industrial, rather than residential energy demand. However, even under the most active reductions envisioned, the 2050 mean exposure, excluding any impact from windblown mineral dust, is estimated to be nearly 3 times higher than the WHO Air Quality Guideline.

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The role of aerosol in altering North Atlantic atmospheric circulation in winter and air-quality feedbacks

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions ◽

10.5194/acpd-14-22477-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 14 (16) ◽

pp. 22477-22506 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

F. S. R. Pausata ◽

M. Gaetani ◽

G. Messori ◽

S. Kloster ◽

F. J. Dentener

Keyword(s):

Air Pollution ◽

Air Quality ◽

Atmospheric Circulation ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Radiation Budget ◽

Atlantic Sector ◽

Pollution Mitigation ◽

Near Future ◽

Future Air Pollution

Abstract. Numerical model scenarios of future climate depict a global increase in temperatures and changing precipitation patterns, driven by increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Aerosol concentrations also play an important role in altering Earth's radiation budget and consequently surface temperature. Here, we use the general circulation aerosol model ECHAM5-HAM, coupled to a mixed layer ocean model, to investigate the impacts of future air pollution mitigation strategies in Europe on winter atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic. We analyze the extreme case of a maximum feasible end-of-pipe reduction of aerosols in the near future (2030), in combination with increasing GHG concentrations. Our results show a more positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) mean state in the near future, together with a significant eastward shift of the southern centre of action of the sea level pressure (SLP). Moreover, we show a significantly increased blocking frequency over the western Mediterranean. By separating the aerosol and GHG impacts, our study suggests that the aerosol abatement in the near future may be the primary driver of such circulation changes. All these concomitant modifications of the atmospheric circulation over the Euro-Atlantic sector lead to more stagnant weather conditions that favor air pollutant accumulation in the Mediterranean, especially in the western sector. These changes in atmospheric circulation should be included in future air pollution mitigation assessments. Our results suggest that an evaluation of NAO changes in individual climate model simulations will allow an objective assessment of the role of changes in wintertime circulation on future air quality.

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Chile's pollution problems require regulatory rethink

Emerald Expert Briefings ◽

10.1108/oxan-db200798 ◽

2015 ◽

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Economic Growth ◽

Air Pollution ◽

Air Quality ◽

Central Chile ◽

Content Type ◽

The Public ◽

Public Agenda ◽

The Government

Subject Air pollution concerns. Significance After a decade in which air quality in Chilean cities has shown little progress and has, in some cases, deteriorated, a two-week smog crisis in Santiago has highlighted the need for a reinvigorated approach to the problem. This is particularly the case because the crisis was triggered by lack of rainfall, one of the expected effects of climate change in central Chile. Impacts According to the government, air pollution-related illnesses continue to cost between 670 million and 1.9 billion dollars annually. Air pollution is primarily a winter problem and tends to slip out of the public agenda during the rest of the year. In a context of slow economic growth, tighter industry emissions standards would face important business opposition.

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The Warming Tibetan Plateau improves winter air quality in the Sichuan Basin, China

10.5194/acp-2020-196 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Shuyu Zhao ◽

Tian Feng ◽

Xuexi Tie ◽

Zebin Wang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Air Pollution ◽

Air Quality ◽

Tibetan Plateau ◽

Sichuan Basin ◽

The Tibetan Plateau ◽

Aerosol Formation ◽

Warming Rate ◽

The Sichuan Basin ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Impacts of global climate change on the occurrence and development of air pollution have attracted more attentions. This study investigates impacts of the warming Tibetan Plateau on air quality in the Sichuan Basin. Meteorological observations and ERA-interim reanalysis data reveal that the Tibetan Plateau has been rapidly warming during the last 40 years (1979–2017), particularly in winter when the warming rate is approximately twice as much as the annual warming rate. Since 2013, the winter temperature over the plateau has even risen by 2 °C. Here, we use the WRF-CHEM model to assess the impact of the 2 °C warming on air quality in the Sichuan Basin. The model results show that the 2 °C warming causes an increase in the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) height and a decrease in the relative humidity (RH) in the basin. The elevated PBL height strengthens vertical diffusion of PM2.5, while the decreased RH significantly reduces secondary aerosol formation. Overall, PM2.5 concentration is reduced by 17.5 % (~ 25.1 μg m−3), of which the reduction in primary and secondary aerosols is 5.4 μg m−3 and 19.7 μg m−3, respectively. These results reveal that the recent warming plateau has improved air quality in the basin, to some certain extent, mitigating the air pollution therein. Nevertheless, climate system is particularly complicated, and more studies are needed to demonstrate the impact of climate change on air quality in the downstream regions as the plateau is likely to continue warming.

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Local Mortality Impacts Due to Future Air Pollution Under Climate Change Scenarios

SSRN Electronic Journal ◽

10.2139/ssrn.3967587 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Vijendra Ingole ◽

Asya Dimitrova ◽

Jon Sampedro ◽

Charfudin Sacoor ◽

Sozinho Acacio ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Air Pollution ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Future Air Pollution

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Can somebody clear the air? How air quality and climate change are connected.

Climanosco Research Articles - https://www.climanosco.org/collection/climate-change-and-its-impacts/ ◽

10.37207/cra.1.5 ◽

2016 ◽

Author(s):

Erika von Schneidemesser

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Air Pollution ◽

Air Quality ◽

Energy Balance ◽

Greenhouse Gases ◽

Air Pollutants ◽

Policy Options ◽

Changing Climate ◽

Quality Policy

Air pollution and climate change are different phenomena, but are connected in a number of ways. The same sources emit both air pollutants and greenhouse gases, many air pollutants affect the Earth’s energy balance and thereby affect climate change, and a changing climate will affect air quality. Policy options to address either air quality or climate change cannot be formulated and applied in isolation, as most will often affect emissions of both greenhouse gases and air pollutants. This article outlines the basics of what air pollutants and greenhouse gases are, how they affect air quality and climate change, and where they come from. The connections between these two environmental phenomena are also addressed.

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European atmosphere in 2050, a regional air quality and climate perspective under CMIP5 scenarios

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-13-7451-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 13 (15) ◽

pp. 7451-7471 ◽

Cited By ~ 55

Author(s):

A. Colette ◽

B. Bessagnet ◽

R. Vautard ◽

S. Szopa ◽

S. Rao ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Air Pollution ◽

Air Quality ◽

Regional Scale ◽

Air Pollutant ◽

External Factors ◽

Pollutant Emissions ◽

Reference Scenario ◽

Regional Air Quality ◽

The Impact

Abstract. To quantify changes in air pollution over Europe at the 2050 horizon, we designed a comprehensive modelling system that captures the external factors considered to be most relevant, and that relies on up-to-date and consistent sets of air pollution and climate policy scenarios. Global and regional climate as well as global chemistry simulations are based on the recent representative concentration pathways (RCP) produced for the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) whereas regional air quality modelling is based on the updated emissions scenarios produced in the framework of the Global Energy Assessment. We explored two diverse scenarios: a reference scenario where climate policies are absent and a mitigation scenario which limits global temperature rise to within 2 °C by the end of this century. This first assessment of projected air quality and climate at the regional scale based on CMIP5 (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) climate simulations is in line with the existing literature using CMIP3. The discrepancy between air quality simulations obtained with a climate model or with meteorological reanalyses is pointed out. Sensitivity simulations show that the main factor driving future air quality projections is air pollutant emissions, rather than climate change or intercontinental transport of pollution. Whereas the well documented "climate penalty" that weights upon ozone (increase of ozone pollution with global warming) over Europe is confirmed, other features appear less robust compared to the literature, such as the impact of climate on PM2.5. The quantitative disentangling of external factors shows that, while several published studies focused on the climate penalty bearing upon ozone, the contribution of the global ozone burden is somewhat overlooked in the literature.

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