scholarly journals Exchange rate parities and Taylor rule deviations

Author(s):  
Christina Anderl ◽  
Guglielmo Maria Caporale

AbstractThis paper investigates the PPP and UIP conditions by taking into account possible nonlinearities as well as the role of Taylor rule deviations under alternative monetary policy frameworks. The analysis is conducted using monthly data from January 1993 to December 2020 for five inflation-targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Sweden) and three non-targeting ones (the USA, the Euro Area and Switzerland). Both a benchmark linear VECM and a nonlinear Threshold VECM are estimated; the latter includes Taylor rule deviations as the threshold variable. The results can be summarized as follows. First, the nonlinear specification provides much stronger evidence for the PPP and UIP conditions, the estimated adjustment speed towards equilibrium being twice as fast. Second, Taylor rule deviations play an important role: the adjustment speed is twice as fast when deviations are small and the credibility of the central bank is higher. Third, inflation targeting tends to generate a higher degree of credibility for the monetary authorities, thereby reducing deviations of the exchange rate from the PPP- and UIP-implied equilibrium.

2019 ◽  
pp. 90-96
Author(s):  
M.P. Tskhovrebov ◽  
A.S. Tanasova

The article is devoted to the «Trilemma» of the policy of the monetary authorities, or the «rule of impossible trinity». This policy compatibility rule, formulated more than 50 years ago, remains relevant today. Its reliability is generally confirmed by a number of empirical studies, although there are also suggestions on the need to adjust this economic and theoretical development. The corresponding discussion also affects the policy of the Bank of Russia (mega-regulator), which carries out inflation targeting in conditions of the free movement of cross-border capital and the use of a floating ruble exchange rate. Regarding the effectiveness of this policy, carried out in the presence of increased sensitivity of the Russian economy to external shocks, the authors express certain doubts.


Author(s):  
Andrew Williams ◽  
Craig Paterson

Abstract The increase in calls for police reform following the death of George Floyd has led to renewed debate about social inequality and the role of policing in society. Modern bureaucratic police systems emerged from locally administered structures and Anglo-American policing models continue to be aligned, to varying degrees, with the political, socio-cultural, legal, and ideological aspects of contemporary liberal democratic society with its emphasis on democratic localism and decentralised accountability. However, at a time when society is reimagining itself and technology, government, and nations are radically re-shaping themselves, a critical question is whether there is a sufficiently common philosophical and conceptual understanding of policing to support its development rather than just a common understanding of police functions. This is profoundly important when considering the current calls for reform of policing in the USA and other western democratic states. The article argues that there is an urgent need to reconsider how we conceptualize policing and its relationship with social development.


BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. e047632
Author(s):  
Helen Humphreys ◽  
Laura Kilby ◽  
Nik Kudiersky ◽  
Robert Copeland

ObjectivesTo explore the lived experience of long COVID with particular focus on the role of physical activity.DesignQualitative study using semistructured interviews.Participants18 people living with long COVID (9 men, 9 women; aged between 18–74 years; 10 white British, 3 white Other, 3 Asian, 1 black, 1 mixed ethnicity) recruited via a UK-based research interest database for people with long COVID.SettingTelephone interviews with 17 participants living in the UK and 1 participant living in the USA.ResultsFour themes were generated. Theme 1 describes how participants struggled with drastically reduced physical function, compounded by the cognitive and psychological effects of long COVID. Theme 2 highlights challenges associated with finding and interpreting advice about physical activity that was appropriately tailored. Theme 3 describes individual approaches to managing symptoms including fatigue and ‘brain fog’ while trying to resume and maintain activities of daily living and other forms of exercise. Theme 4 illustrates the battle with self-concept to accept reduced function (even temporarily) and the fear of permanent reduction in physical and cognitive ability.ConclusionsThis study provides insight into the challenges of managing physical activity alongside the extended symptoms associated with long COVID. Findings highlight the need for greater clarity and tailoring of physical activity-related advice for people with long COVID and improved support to resume activities important to individual well-being.


2019 ◽  
Vol 71 (2) ◽  
pp. 137-158
Author(s):  
Ognjen Pribicevic

Leaving the EU is one of the major political decisions made in the UK over the past half-century. Brexit brought about a virtual political earthquake not only in EU-UK relations but also in terms of UK future place and role on the international scene. Immediately after the decision of UK citizens to leave the EU at a referendum held on 23 June 2016, the question arose as to whether the UK will lose some of its international influence, whether Scotland will remain part of the Union, whether the UK will retain its privileged relations and special status with the USA, and what its future relations with the EU will be. The purpose of this article is to point to the basic priorities of the contemporary British foreign policy as well as to place and role of the UK on the contemporary international scene particularly in view of its decision to leave the EU. We shall first try to define the status of present-day Britain in international relations. Second, we shall address the traditional dilemma of the UK foreign policy - what should be given priority - relations with the USA, Europe or the Commonwealth? After that, we shall discuss in more detail the phases the UK foreign policy went through following the end of the cold war. In the third phase, we shall analyze the British contemporary foreign and economic policy towards Gulf countries and China. In the fourth part of the article, we shall discuss relations with the USA. It should be pointed out that the article does not seek to analyze all aspects of British foreign policy, even if we wanted to, due to a shortage of time. Of course, the topic of Brexit will be present in all chapters and especially in the last one and conclusion remarks. By its decision to leave the EU, the UK appears to have given priority to its relations with the USA, China, Gulf countries as well as Commonwealth countries instead of the EU which has been economically and politically dominant over the past few decades. This decision taken by UK citizens will no doubt have a great impact not only on their personal lives and standard of living but on the UK role in international relations. Despite its military, political, economic and cultural capacities, it is highly unlikely that the UK will manage to overcome the consequences of an exit from the single market, currently generating 18 trillion dollars on an annual basis as well as the loss of a privileged partner role with the USA within the Union. We are, therefore, more likely to believe that in the foreseeable future, the role of the UK on the international scene will continue to decline and be increasingly focused on its economic and financial interests. Project of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. III 47010: Drustvene transformacije u procesu evropskih integracija - multidisciplinarni pristup]


Author(s):  
Özgür Kiyak ◽  
Bilge Afşar

This chapter tries to determine whether there is a causal relationship between exchange rate and foreign trade. The study includes monthly data between February 2003 and December 2018 including dollar foreign exchange selling rate and inflation related real exchange rate for exchange rate, and export amount, import amount, export increase/decrease rate, and import increase. Increase/decrease rate is used for foreign trade among other variables, for a total of 6 variables. According to the obtained results of Engle-Granger cointegration analysis, there is a cointegration between variables in the long run. However, according to the results of the Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis, it was understood that there is no causality relationship between exchange rate and foreign trade.


2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (Supplement_4) ◽  
Author(s):  
M Cabral ◽  
G Daminani

Abstract Background Leadership and chronic diseases are two frequent topics in current public health discussions. We performed a bibliometric analysis to study what interactions exist between these two themes. This study allows an insight on what is being published and also identifies potential gaps that need to be addressed. Methods We have reviewed all the titles and abstracts of articles available at PUBMED with the MESH terms ’Leadership’ and ’Chronic Disease’. We collected information about the authors, year, journal and type of publication and country where the study was done. We have also done a qualitative analysis on the themes addressed. Results We have found 171 entries, of witch 85 (49,7%) referred to apparent peer reviewed studies in English. All other publications referred to editorials, commentaries or the PUBMED entry did not allow for greater clarification. From 1998 the publication of articles became regular, with a peak of 14 articles published in 2014. The average of authors per publication was 3,19. The most frequent country involved was the USA (62), follow by the UK (14), Canada (11) and Australia (10). 128 publications were identified, of which BMC Health Serv Res was the one with the highest number of articles included (5). There was some form of a call for greater leadership from nurses in 22 articles. We also highlight 5 articles that called for a greater role of pastors and religious communities in this field. Conclusions Despite the perception of being common topics, there is still a low rate of publication of studies in the field of leadership and chronic diseases. There is a predominance of articles from the USA. There was not a predominant publication in this field. Despite doctors being typically seen as the leaders within the health field, the articles included seem to point to a trend in calling for a bigger leadership role of other actors, such as nurses. Key messages There is a need for more research in the field of leadership in chronic diseases. There seems to be a trend calling for greater leadership in the field from non-physician actors.


2014 ◽  
Vol 73 (2) ◽  
pp. 167-171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian A. Macdonald

Carbohydrate-rich foods are an essential component of the diet, providing the glucose that is continuously required by the nervous system and some other cells and tissues in the body for normal function. There is some concern that too much carbohydrate or certain types of carbohydrate such as fructose or the high glycaemic index carbohydrate foods that produce large, rapid increases in blood glucose may be detrimental to health. This review considers these issues and also summarises the public health advice currently available in Europe and the USA concerning dietary carbohydrates. The UK Scientific Advisory Committee on Nutrition is currently reviewing carbohydrates and health, and the subsequent report should help clarify some of the concerns regarding carbohydrates and health.


1995 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 255-274
Author(s):  
Nuruddeen A. Abdullahi ◽  
Alan Wakelam

The first part deals with the financial background to the economy. The switch from an agricultural economy to one where, since 1974, oil has taken centre stage, has been dramatic. A country traumatised by civil war has left deep scars, as a result the oil boom of the 1970’s was not taken full advantage of—wastage and misallocation of revenues were characteristic of the 1970’s and 80’s. Despite this, there has been some improvement in the infrastructure as a result of public spending. The second part looks at the role of the stockbroker. As professional advisors, stockbrokers are expected to have a good understanding of the financial market. Sadly the advice that some gave to private investors was not always sound. A particular example was when a third of the sample advised their clients to borrow money for share purchase at a time when interest rates were particularly high. It is interesting to note that in spite of their strong support for deregulation of the stock market, the majority (74.1%) expressed satisfaction with the Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission (NSEC). The authors expected the financial press to be the most important source of financial information, instead company reports took first place, possibly reflecting a lack of confidence in press reporting. 62% of the stockbrokers were ignorant of the fact that a company may declare profit even when its cashflow position is in deficit, and 22% had the misconception that listed companies were always profitable. Unlike the UK and the USA there is yet to emerge a market risk service, hence the stockbrokers have to rely on their own perceptions of market risk, and the results show that


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