Financial Marketing-Based Role of Exchange Rate to Increase Foreign Trade in Turkey

2020 ◽  
pp. 21-46
Author(s):  
Özgür Kiyak ◽  
Bilge Afşar
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Decrease Rate ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Relationship

This chapter tries to determine whether there is a causal relationship between exchange rate and foreign trade. The study includes monthly data between February 2003 and December 2018 including dollar foreign exchange selling rate and inflation related real exchange rate for exchange rate, and export amount, import amount, export increase/decrease rate, and import increase. Increase/decrease rate is used for foreign trade among other variables, for a total of 6 variables. According to the obtained results of Engle-Granger cointegration analysis, there is a cointegration between variables in the long run. However, according to the results of the Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis, it was understood that there is no causality relationship between exchange rate and foreign trade.

scholarly journals Dynamics of the Real Exchange Rate, Inflation, and Output Growth: The Case of Malawi

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zelealem Yiheyis ◽  
Emmanuel Cleeve
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
The Real ◽  
Long Run

<p>This paper investigates the temporal causality and dynamics of real exchange rate, inflation, and output growth in Malawi, controlling for monetary growth and foreign exchange accumulation. The relationships among these variables are examined using quarterly data and the bounds testing approach to cointegration analysis. A long run relationship among the variables is observed, with the real exchange rate as the dependent variable, which is found responsive, in the long run, to the growth rate of output but not to inflation. Analysis of short-run dynamics reveals that the real exchange rate was influenced by output growth and inflation. The Granger causality analysis in a multivariate setting points to causation running from the real exchange rate to inflation and from each of these to output growth. The lagged error correction term, where included, emerged significant, providing evidence for the presence of long-run causality running interactively through it from the other variables as a group to the real exchange rate. Taken together, the results indicate the relevance of domestic economic activity, monetary policy, and foreign exchange availability for the evolution of the real exchange rate, which, in turn, is observed to have played a role in influencing domestic inflation and output growth in Malawi.</p>

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS ON THE YIELD OF CORPORATE BONDS IN INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 300-310
Author(s):  
Anastasia Sianturi ◽  
Pardomuan Sihombing
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Corporate Bonds ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Corporate Bond ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Macroeconomic Effects ◽  
Positive Effect

This study aims to examine and obtain empirical evidence of the effects of inflation, BI rate, exchange rate, foreign exchange reserves and the oil price to yield corporate bonds in Indonesia. An increase in the number of issuers and corporate bond issuance value in Indonesia means that many companies are using and seek financing through the issuance of bonds. Several studies have been conducted, inconsistencies results of research on factors affecting yield corporate bonds in Indonesia. This study uses a quantitative approach to the type of associative causal research. Measurement of variables in this study using a time series analysis were processed using Eviews program 10. This research was conducted using monthly data within the period of 2015 to 2018. The results of this research that inflation positively affects yield corporate bonds. BI rate has a positive effect on the yield of corporate bonds. Exchange rate positive effect on the yield of corporate bonds. Foreign exchange reserves negatively affect yield corporate bonds. Oil price positive effect on the yield of corporate bonds.

scholarly journals Cotton Imports and GDP of Indonesia- Cointegration Analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 149-154
Author(s):  
P. Soumya ◽  
R. A. Yeledhalli
Keyword(s):  
High Speed ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Use Of Technology ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The study examines the impact of cotton imports on the real GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of Indonesia for a period from 1992 to 2018 using ARDL approach and Granger causality analysis. Results of the study indicated that cotton imports have negative effect on economic growth. For every 1% increase in cotton imports the real GDP decreased by 0.107% in the long run. Any disequilibrium in the model is adjusted with a high speed of adjustment of 107.7% in less than a year. Shocks and the trend are adjusted in less than one year. There is no causality between imports of cotton and the real GDP. The study suggested effort should be taken by the government to increase yield of cotton by the use of technology and also a need to initiate farmers to take up cotton farming. 

scholarly journals Exchange rate policy, growth, and foreign trade in China

2011 ◽  
Vol 56 (190) ◽  
pp. 103-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirjana Gligoric
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Bilateral Relations ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Rate Policy

This paper analyzes a hot topic: the influence of an undervalued currency on macroeconomic variables - primarily on the economic growth and trade balance of a country, but also on employment, foreign exchange reserves, competition, and living standards. It also reviews and explains the consequences of yuan undervaluation, points out the need for its appreciation, and states the negative effects that stem from this measure. Special attention is given to the problematic bilateral relations between China and the USA and the reasons why Americans are worried about the exchange rate policy that China implements. Although yuan appreciation would decrease the American foreign trade deficit, it also raises the question of further financing of the American deficit. There are also other problems that the possible appreciation would cause for the American economy, due to the effect of J-curve, passthrough, larger costs of input imported from China, etc. Therefore, Chinese foreign exchange policy is an important subject, but it is not the solution to the problems of the global economy - which have deeper roots than that. However, there is no excuse for China implementing unfair exchange rate policies, or replacing such policies with controversial protectionist policies (as some authors have suggested).

scholarly journals Time-Gap effects of crude oil prices on the foreign exchange rates: Evidence from Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 31-44
Author(s):  
Nenubari Ikue John ◽  
Emeka Nkoro ◽  
Jeremiah Anietie
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
External Information ◽  
Garch Models ◽  
Foreign Exchange Rates ◽  
Crude Oil Prices

There is a pool of techniques and methods in addressing dynamics behaviors in higher frequency data, prominent among them is the ARCH/GARCH techniques. In this paper, the various types and assumptions of the ARCH/GARCH models were tried in examining the dynamism of exchange rate and international crude oil prices in Nigeria. And it was observed that the Nigerian foreign exchange rates behaviors did not conform with the assumptions of the ARCH/GARCH models, hence this paper adopted Lag Variables Autoregressive (LVAR) techniques originally developed by Agung and Heij multiplier to examine the dynamic response of the Nigerian foreign exchange rates to crude oil prices. The Heij coefficient was used to calculate the dynamic multipliers while the Engel & Granger two-step technique was used for cointegration analysis.  The results revealed an insignificant dynamic long-term response of the exchange rate to crude oil prices within the periods under review. The coefficient of dynamism was insignificantly in most cases of the sub-periods. The paper equally revealed that the significance of the dynamic multipliers depends greatly on external information about both market indicators which are two-way interactions. Thus, the paper recommends periodic intervention in the foreign exchange market by the monetary authorities to stabilize the market against any shocks in the international crude oil market, since crude oil is the main source of foreign exchange in Nigeria.

scholarly journals Are the Responses of Sectoral Energy Imports Asymmetric to Exchange Rate Volatilities in Pakistan? Evidence From Recent Foreign Exchange Regime

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul Saqib ◽  
Tze-Haw Chan ◽  
Alexey Mikhaylov ◽  
Hooi Hooi Lean
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Unit Root Testing ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bound Test

Growing energy demand but stagnant production followed by volatile exchange rate leads Pakistan to energy imbalances and potential economic contraction. Yet, studies on sectoral energy imports are limited and inconclusive without accessing the asymmetric effect of currency fluctuations. We examine the impacts of Pakistani rupee volatility on monthly energy imports based on the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) estimations. Augmented Dickey–Fuller and Phillips–Perron tests were used to conduct unit root testing, and the bound testing approach was used to examine the long-term cointegration. The long-run asymmetry was tested with the Wald test, and using the NARDL model, we examined both short-run and long-run asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on energy imports. The bound test was established and supported through ECMt−1 (t-test), cointegrating the relationship between exchange rate volatility and energy imports in a long term. Among others, both short-run and long-run asymmetric effects were found for crude oil, coal, electricity, and petroleum products. Rupee depreciation increased crude oil and electricity imports, while the appreciation effects were insignificant. Overall, the empirical assessment reveals that the foreign exchange volatility effect is sectoral specific and asymmetric in Pakistan. It offers new insights into re-strategizing the energy policy and refining the import substitution plan.

scholarly journals Testing for Causality between Oil Prices and Money Supply in Saudi Arabia (Note 1)

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. p58
Author(s):  
Moayad Al Rasasi, PhD ◽  
John H. Qualls, PhD ◽  
Sultan Almutairi
Keyword(s):  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Saudi Arabian ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Fiscal And Monetary Policy

The impact of oil price shocks on a country’s economy has been well studied in the economic literature. However, until now, articles analyzing the impact of these shocks on the Saudi Arabian economy have been relatively sparse. This paper attempts to shed some light on this important topic by examining the causal relationship between oil prices and an important monetary variable, the M3 (broad-based) money supply. Monthly data going back to 1982 were used in this study, which employs unit root tests and Granger causality analysis to test whether there is a causal relationship or not. No discernable causality relationship was found; this lack of such link leads the authors to conclude that this may be due to the prudent and stable fiscal and monetary policy on the part of the Kingdom’s government and its central bank, the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA).

scholarly journals An Approach of Vector Autoregression Model for Inflation Analysis in Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Idah Zuhroh ◽  
Hendra Kusuma ◽  
Syela Kurniawati
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Vector Autoregression Model ◽  
Autoregression Model ◽  
The Stability

A control of the inflation rate caused by the fluctuations in foreign exchange reserves, money supply, and exchange rate is required to create the stability of the country's economy. This study aims to analyze the dynamic impact of disturbance factors contained in the variables of foreign exchange reserves, the money supply, and the exchange rate. This research used monthly data from June 2009 to November 2016. It used a method used of Vector Autoregression. The result shows that a foreign exchange reserve has a negative relationship nut not significant effect on inflation, money supply has positive relationship and significant effect on inflation, and exchange rate of rupiah to US dollar has negative relationship and significant effect on inflation. The responce of inflation from shocking occurs to supply, foreign exchange reserves and exchange rate tend to be convergent and the biggest contribution that influences inflation the most is exchange rate beside inflation itself.

The long-run effects of geopolitical risk on foreign exchange markets: evidence from some ASEAN countries

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hon Chung Hui
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Foreign Exchange Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Exchange Markets ◽  
Exchange Rate Models ◽  
Asean Countries

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to analyse the long-run relationship between geopolitical risk and exchange rates in four ASEAN countries.Design/methodology/approachWe augment theoretical nominal exchange rate models available in the literature with the geopolitical risk index developed by Caldara and Iacoviello (2019), and then estimate these models using the ARDL approach to Cointegration.FindingsOur analysis uncovers evidence of Cointegration in the exchange rate models when the MYR-USD, IDR-USD, THB-USD and PHP-USD exchange rates are used as dependent variable. Next, geopolitical risk is a significant long-run driver for these exchange rates. Third, in all countries higher geopolitical risk leads to a depreciation of domestic currency.Research limitations/implicationsThere are implications for entrepreneurs, central banks, portfolio managers and arbitrageurs who actively trade in financial markets. Financial market players can benefit from a better understanding of how geopolitical events affect the portfolio of financial assets across various countries, while entrepreneurs can work out hedging strategies.Originality/valueThis is a contribution to the study of interlinkages between political risk and foreign exchange markets. It is the first study to adopt the geopolitical risk index of Caldara and Iacoviello (2019) to the study the foreign exchange markets of ASEAN countries.

scholarly journals Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on the Yuan-SDR Exchange Rate

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 59-71
Author(s):  
Debesh Bhowmik
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Cyclical Fluctuations ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Macroeconomic Impact ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

The paper endeavours to explore the macroeconomic impact on the Yuan SDR exchange rate of China during 2017m1-2021m6 to justify the internationalization of RMB which had entered into the SDR basket of IMF in October 2016.To evaluate the impact ,the paper used the methodology of Johansen (1988) cointegration and vector error correction model considering monthly Yuan per SDR as dependent variable and monthly GDP, inflation rate, foreign exchange reserves, export and import as the independent macro-economic variables. The pattern of trendline of Yuan per SDR is found nonlinear having cyclical fluctuations and seasonal variations according to Hamilton (2018). The paper also found that Yuan per SDR has significant long run causalities with export, import, inflation rate, GDP and foreign exchange rate of China during the specified period. Even, Yuan per SDR has significant short run causality with export only. The cointegrating equation converged towards the equilibrium with the speed of adjustment 11.83% per month significantly. The impulse response function of import to Yuan per SDR showed significantly convergent. The VECM contains autocorrelation problem and unit root for which it is non-stationary.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document