Generic difference of expected vote share and probability of victory maximization in simple plurality elections with probabilistic voters

2006 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 149-173 ◽  
Author(s):  
John W. Patty
Keyword(s):  
Vote Share ◽  
Generic Difference

scholarly journals Rallies around the flag-draped coffins: the electoral effects of security force casualties in terror attacks

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Resul Umit
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Security Force ◽  
Random Assignment ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Terror Attacks ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Similar Percentage ◽  
General Elections

Abstract Security forces are one of the main targets of political violence. This paper examines the effect of their casualties on electoral outcomes. Between two general elections in 2015, Turkey experienced a series of attacks that killed 153 members of its security forces. Based on the as-if random assignment of their funerals across the country, I estimate that government vote share increases in the funeral places of security force terror victims. However, in the localities with recurring funerals, it decreases by a similar percentage. These non-linear changes provide strong evidence for the rally theory.

How Political Candidates' Use of Facebook Relates to the Election Outcomes

2017 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hsin-Chen Lin
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Political Campaigns ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Political Marketing ◽  
Political Candidates ◽  
The Past ◽  
Use Of Social Media ◽  
Municipal Election ◽  
Online Fans ◽  
The Relationship

This paper examines the relationship between political candidates' use of Facebook and their election outcomes (vote share and election success). The use of social media in political marketing campaigns has grown dramatically over the past few years. It is also expected to become even more critical to future political campaigns, as it creates two-way communication and engagement that stimulates and fosters candidates' relationships with their supporters. Online Facebook data were acquired for all 84 candidates running in a municipal election in Taiwan. Results suggest that a candidate's Facebook presence, the type of account they use, the authentication of the account, and the number of online fans they have are related to their election outcomes.

CAESAR'S SISENNA

2014 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 207-213 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher B. Krebs
Keyword(s):  
Ample Evidence ◽  
Early Republican ◽  
Generic Difference

Caesar'sCommentariihave hardly been studied within the historiographical tradition – probably because of their generic difference fromhistoriaand, more generally, alleged overall sparseness, famously and influentially compared to nudity. While their relationship to Greek historians has received some haphazard attention, their possible debt to antecedent Roman historians is an even less explored question – admittedly compounded by the fragmentary state of early republican historiography. In the following pages, however, I will suggest that there is ample evidence of Caesar's familiarity with, and even imitation of, theHistoriaeby Lucius Cornelius Sisenna.

Re-using Open Government Data (OGD) published by the Election Commission of India (ECI)

foresight ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 20 (5) ◽  
pp. 507-526 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stuti Saxena
Keyword(s):  
Academic Research ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Open Government ◽  
Party Affiliation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Demographic Profiles ◽  
Open Government Data ◽  
Government Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Election Commission

Purpose The paper aims to “re-use” the Open Government Data (OGD) published by the Election Commission of India (ECI). Bihar’s performance across General Elections, 2014, and Bihar Legislative Assembly Elections, 2015, is compared, wherein the role of contestants’ demographic profiles in determining their vote share is being investigated. Design/methodology/approach Hypotheses are derived based on the impact of contestants’ demographic profiles (age, marital status, social category, political party affiliation, educational qualification, availing telephone and email facility, criminal antecedents) on their vote share. Following a quantitative approach, multiple regression and logistic regression are used to draw inferences from the data contestants’ affidavits – sourced from the ECI website. Findings Results show that contestants’ demographic profiles impact their vote share in the elections. While the ECI website is a viable source for re-using the data available there, data are not available in a user-friendly format and this leads to difficulty in being re-used by different stakeholders. Originality/value Academic research on OGD re-use is negligible, and the present study seeks to contribute towards extant literature by underlining the significance of re-using OGD by drawing inferences from the data accessible via ECI.

How local personal vote-earning attributes affect the aggregate party vote share: Evidence from the Belgian flexible-list PR system (2003–2014)

Politics ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 39 (4) ◽  
pp. 464-479
Author(s):  
Gert-Jan Put ◽  
Jef Smulders ◽  
Bart Maddens
Keyword(s):  
Regression Models ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
District Level ◽  
National Party ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Geographically Distributed ◽  
Party Vote Shares

This article investigates the effect of candidates exhibiting local personal vote-earning attributes (PVEA) on the aggregate party vote share at the district level. Previous research has often assumed that packing ballot lists with localized candidates increases the aggregate party vote and seat shares. We present a strict empirical test of this argument by analysing the relative electoral swing of ballot lists at the district level, a measure of change in party vote shares which controls for the national party trend and previous party results in the district. The analysis is based on data of 7527 candidacies during six Belgian regional and federal election cycles between 2003 and 2014, which is aggregated to an original data set of 223 ballot lists. The ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models do not show a significant effect of candidates exhibiting local PVEA on relative electoral swing of ballot lists. However, the results suggest that ballot lists do benefit electorally if candidates with local PVEA are geographically distributed over different municipalities in the district.

Understanding the Impact of Electoral Systems on Women's Representation

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (03) ◽  
pp. 379-404 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank C. Thames
Keyword(s):  
Political Science ◽  
Electoral Systems ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Political Systems ◽  
Women's Representation ◽  
Women’S Representation ◽  
The Impact

The study of electoral systems is a key area of research within political science. In part, the attention paid to electoral systems reflects their importance to democratic political systems. Electoral systems define “what constitutes” a vote, establish “a rule for how votes are totaled,” and create a mechanism for “translating vote share into seat allocations” for representative institutions (Bawn 1993, 966). These roles mean that electoral systems impact not only how interests are represented, but also how accountability is structured.

scholarly journals Stop Suffering! Economic Downturns and Pentecostal Upsurge

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco J M Costa ◽  
Angelo Marcantonio Junior ◽  
Rudi Rocha
Keyword(s):  
Vote Share ◽  
Direct Link ◽  
Religious Groups ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Economic Distress ◽  
Economic Downturns ◽  
Pentecostal Churches

This paper estimates the effects of economic downturns on the expansion of Pentecostal Evangelicalism in Brazil. We find that regions more exposed to economic distress experienced a persistent rise both in Pentecostal affiliation and in the vote share of candidates connected to Pentecostal churches in national legislative elections. Once elected, these politicians carried out an agenda with greater emphasis on issues that are sensitive to fundamental religious principles. These results uncover a direct link between economic distress and a sustained entrenchment of more fundamentalist religious groups in a contemporary democracy.

scholarly journals Forecasting 2016 US Presidential Elections Using Factor Analysis and Regression Model

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 20-42
Author(s):  
Pankaj Sinha
Keyword(s):  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Standard Error ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Economic Factor ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
White House ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Incumbent Party

The paper categorizes factors responsible for forecasting the outcome of U.S. presidential election 2016 using factor analysis, which groups the various economic and non-economic parameters based on the correlation among them. The major economic factor significant in 2016 US presidential election is the growth of the economy, and the ‘anti-incumbency factor that signifies how long the incumbent party has been controlling the White House is found to be an important non-economic factor likely to play a dominant role in the election. The dependent variables considered are the vote shares of the nominees of the incumbent and the non-incumbent majority party candidates. The forecast is calculated by running a regression of the significant factors, obtained through factor analysis technique, on the incumbent party vote share as well as on the non-incumbent party vote share. The proposed models forecast the vote share of Democrat candidate Mrs. Hillary Clinton to be 45.59% with a standard error of ±2.32% and that of Republican candidate Mr. Donald Trump to be 39.51% with a standard error of ±3.87%. Hence, the models built in the paper signal a comfortable margin of victory for the Presidential nominee of the incumbent party, Hillary Clinton.The study re-establishes the notion that the non-economic factors have a greater influence on the outcomes of election as compared to the economic factors, as some of the important economic factors such as inflation and unemployment rate failed to establish their significance. 

scholarly journals Robo-Polls: Taking Cues from Traditional Sources?

2013 ◽  
Vol 46 (02) ◽  
pp. 333-337 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua D. Clinton ◽  
Steven Rogers
Keyword(s):  
New Hampshire ◽  
Interactive Voice Response ◽  
Conclusive Evidence ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Presidential Primary ◽  
Average Accuracy ◽  
Voice Response

AbstractAfter the 2012 Republican New Hampshire primary, 159 poll results were released prior to the subsequent nomination contests in the Republican presidential primary. More than two-thirds of these polls relied on interactive voice response (IVR) software to conduct the interviews. We evaluate the ability of polls to predict the vote-share for the Republican candidates Romney, Santorum, and Gingrich. We find no overall difference in the average accuracy of IVR and traditional human polls, but IVR polls conducted prior to human polls are significantly poorer predictors of election outcomes than traditional human polls even after controlling for characteristics of the states, polls, and electoral environment. These findings provide suggestive, but not conclusive, evidence that pollsters may take cues from one another given the stakes involved. If so, reported polls should not be assumed to be independent of one another and so-called poll-of-polls will be misleadingly precise.

Independent Candidates and Political Representation in India

2018 ◽  
Vol 112 (3) ◽  
pp. 678-697 ◽  
Author(s):  
SACHA KAPOOR ◽  
ARVIND MAGESAN
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Political Representation ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Political Process ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
The Political ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Independent Candidates

We estimate the causal effect of independent candidates on voter turnout and election outcomes in India. To do this, we exploit exogenous changes in the entry deposit candidates pay for their participation in the political process, changes that disproportionately excluded candidates with no affiliation to established political parties. A one standard deviation increase in the number of independent candidates increases voter turnout by more than 6 percentage points, as some voters choose to vote rather than stay home. The vote share of independent candidates increases by more than 10 percentage points, as some existing voters switch who they vote for. Thus, independents allow winning candidates to win with less vote share, decrease the probability of electing a candidate from the governing coalition by about 31 percentage points, and ultimately increase the probability of electing an ethnic-party candidate. Altogether, the results imply that the price of participation by independents is constituency representation in government.

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