scholarly journals Regional surface temperature simulations over the Iberian Peninsula: evaluation and climate projections

2020 ◽  
Vol 55 (11-12) ◽  
pp. 3445-3468
Author(s):  
J. L. Garrido ◽  
J. F. González-Rouco ◽  
M. G. Vivanco ◽  
J. Navarro
Keyword(s):  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Spatial Representation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Specific Configuration

Abstract The realism of a specific configuration of the WRF Regional Climate Model (RCM) to represent the observed temperature evolution over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) in the 1971–2005 period has been analyzed. The E-OBS observational dataset was used for this purpose. Also, the $$\textit{added value}$$ added value of the WRF simulations with respect to the IPSL Earth System Model (ESM) used to drive the WRF RCM was evaluated. In general, WRF presents lower temperatures than in the observations (negative biases) over the IP. These biases are comparatively larger than those of the driving ESM. Once the biases are corrected, WRF provides an added value in terms of a higher spatial representation. WRF introduces more variability in some regions in comparison to gridded observation. Warming trends according to the observations are also well represented by the RCM. In the second part of this study, the projections of future climate performed with both the ESM and the RCM were evaluated for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios during the 21st century. Although both models simulate temperature increases, the RCM simulates a smaller warming than the ESM after the mid-21st century, except for winter. Using the WRF model, the maximum temperature increase reaches $$6\, ^\circ \hbox {C}$$ 6 ∘ C and $$3\, ^\circ \hbox {C}$$ 3 ∘ C for RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 in the south east of the Iberian Peninsula by the end of the 21st century, respectively.

scholarly journals WRF Sensitivity for Seasonal Climate Simulations of Precipitation Fields on the CORDEX South America Domain

Atmosphere ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 107
Author(s):  
Helber Barros Gomes ◽  
Maria Cristina Lemos da Silva ◽  
Henrique de Melo Jorge Barbosa ◽  
Tércio Ambrizzi ◽  
Hakki Baltaci ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
South American ◽  
Climate Forecasting ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Simulated Precipitation

Dynamic numerical models of the atmosphere are the main tools used for weather and climate forecasting as well as climate projections. Thus, this work evaluated the systematic errors and areas with large uncertainties in precipitation over the South American continent (SAC) based on regional climate simulations with the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model. Ten simulations using different convective, radiation, and microphysical schemes, and an ensemble mean among them, were performed with a resolution of 50 km, covering the CORDEX-South America domain. First, the seasonal precipitation variability and its differences were discussed. Then, its annual cycle was investigated through nine sub-domains on the SAC (AMZN, AMZS, NEBN, NEBS, SE, SURU, CHAC, PEQU, and TOTL). The Taylor Diagrams were used to assess the sensitivity of the model to different parameterizations and its ability to reproduce the simulated precipitation patterns. The results showed that the WRF simulations were better than the ERA-interim (ERAI) reanalysis when compared to the TRMM, showing the added value of dynamic downscaling. For all sub-domains the best result was obtained with the ensemble compared to the satellite TRMM. The largest errors were observed in the SURU and CHAC regions, and with the greatest dispersion of members during the rainy season. On the other hand, the best results were found in the AMZS, NEBS, and TOTL regions.

scholarly journals Added value of the EURO-CORDEX high-resolution downscaling over the Iberian Peninsula revisited. Part II: Max and Min Temperature

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
João António Martins Careto ◽  
Pedro Miguel Matos Soares ◽  
Rita Margarida Cardoso ◽  
Sixto Herrera ◽  
José Manuel Gutiérrez
Keyword(s):  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
European Continent ◽  
Partial Probability

Abstract. In the recent past, the increase of computation resources led to the appearance of regional climate models with increasing domains and resolutions, spamming larger temporal periods. A good example is the World Climate Research Program – Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for the European domain (EURO-CORDEX). This set of regional models encompass the entire European continent, for a 130-year common period until the end of the 21st century, while having a 12 Km horizontal resolution. Such simulations are computationally demanding, while at the same time, not always showing added value. This study considers a recently proposed metric in order to assess the added value of the EURO-CORDEX Hindcast (1989–2008) and Historical (1971–2005) simulations, for the maximum and minimum temperature over the Iberian Peninsula. This approach allows an evaluation of the higher against the driving lower resolutions relative to the performance of the whole or partial probability density functions, by having an observational regular gridded dataset as reference. Overall, the gains for maximum temperature are more relevant in comparison to minimum temperature, partially owed to known problems derived from the snow-albedo-atmosphere feedback. For more local scales, areas near the coast reveal significant added value in comparison with the interior, which displays limited gains and sometimes significant detrimental effects around −30 %. Nevertheless, the added value for temperature extremes reveals a similar range, although with stronger gains in coastal regions and in locations from the interior for maximum temperature, contrasting with the losses for locations in the interior of the domain for the minimum temperature.

scholarly journals Added value of the EURO-CORDEX high-resolution downscaling over the Iberian Peninsula revisited. Part I: Precipitation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
João António Martins Careto ◽  
Pedro Miguel Matos Soares ◽  
Rita Margarida Cardoso ◽  
Sixto Herrera ◽  
José Manuel Guttiérrez
Keyword(s):  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Model ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Computational Resources

Abstract. Over the years higher resolution Regional Climate Model simulations have emerged owing to the large increase in computational resources. The 12 Km resolution from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for the European domain (EURO-CORDEX) is a reference, which includes a larger multi-model ensemble at a continental scale while spanning at least a 130-year period. These simulations are computationally demanding but not always revealing added value. In this study, a recently developed regular gridded dataset (Iberia0.1) and a new metric for added value quantification, the distribution added value (DAV), are used to assess the precipitation of all available EURO-CORDEX Hindcast (1989–2008) and Historical (1971–2005) simulations. This approach enables a direct assessment between the higher resolution regional model runs against their forcing Global model or ERA-Interim reanalysis, with respect to their PDFs. This assessment is performed for the Iberian Peninsula. Overall, important gains are found for most cases, particularly in precipitation extremes. Most Hindcast models reveal gains above 15 %, namely for wintertime, while for precipitation extremes values above 20 % are reached for the summer and autumn. As for the Historical models, although most pairs display gains, regional models forced by 2 GCMs reveal losses, sometimes around −5 % or stronger, for the entire year. However, the spatialization of the DAV is clear in terms of added value for precipitation, particularly precipitation extremes with significant gains, above 100 %.

First results of a comparison study of multi-domain REMO CORDEX simulations between 0.11° and 0.22° resolution with ERA-Interim forcing

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martina Schubert-Frisius ◽  
Susanne Pfeifer ◽  
Armelle Reca Remedio ◽  
Claas Teichmann ◽  
Lars Buntemeyer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Virtual Water ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Added Value ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
First Results

<p>Within the framework of WCRP CORDEX, the CORE (CORDEX Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations) experiment provides a homogeneous ensemble of regional climate projections for 9 domains covering all land areas of the globe with the exception of the Arctic and Antarctic regions (http://www.cordex.org/experiment-guidelines/cordex-core/). CORDEX-CORE provides data from two regional climate models (REMO2015 and RegCM), driven by 3 GCMs and under 2 RCP scenario conditions at a resolution of about 25 km. In addition, within the same framework, simulations of the current climate, driven by ERA-Interim, were carried out for all areas with REMO2015 at a grid resolution of approx. 25 km.</p><p>Within the German Project ViWA (Virtual Water Values, https://viwa.geographie-muenchen.de), simulations with the regional climate model REMO2015, driven by ERA-INTERIM analyses were carried out for the same regions globally, but on a significantly higher spatial resolution of approx. 12.5 km. These simulations cover the time period from 2015 to 2018. Comparing these highly resolved simulations to the coarsely resolved CORDEX-CORE simulations, can give indications, in which regions and for which processes the CORDEX-CORE resolution of 25 km is sufficient and where a higher resolution brings a clear added value.</p><p>We will show first results of this comparison, focusing on selected regions and processes which potentially benefit from higher spatial resolution of the simulations.</p>

scholarly journals The impact of climate change in wheat and barley yields in the Iberian Peninsula

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Virgílio A. Bento ◽  
Andreia F. S. Ribeiro ◽  
Ana Russo ◽  
Célia M. Gouveia ◽  
Rita M. Cardoso ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Early Winter ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Spring Maximum

AbstractThe impact of climate change on wheat and barley yields in two regions of the Iberian Peninsula is here examined. Regression models are developed by using EURO-CORDEX regional climate model (RCM) simulations, forced by ERA-Interim, with monthly maximum and minimum air temperatures and monthly accumulated precipitation as predictors. Additionally, RCM simulations forced by different global climate models for the historical period (1972–2000) and mid-of-century (2042–2070; under the two emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are analysed. Results point to different regional responses of wheat and barley. In the southernmost regions, results indicate that the main yield driver is spring maximum temperature, while further north a larger dependence on spring precipitation and early winter maximum temperature is observed. Climate change seems to induce severe yield losses in the southern region, mainly due to an increase in spring maximum temperature. On the contrary, a yield increase is projected in the northern regions, with the main driver being early winter warming that stimulates earlier growth. These results warn on the need to implement sustainable agriculture policies, and on the necessity of regional adaptation strategies.

scholarly journals Projected changes in haze pollution potential in China: an ensemble of regional climate model simulations

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (16) ◽  
pp. 10109-10123 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenyu Han ◽  
Botao Zhou ◽  
Ying Xu ◽  
Jia Wu ◽  
Ying Shi
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
River Delta ◽  
Central China ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Pollution Potential ◽  
Pollution Risk ◽  
Haze Pollution

Abstract. Based on the dynamic downscaling by the regional climate model RegCM4 from three CMIP5 global models under the historical and the RCP4.5 simulations, this article evaluated the performance of the RegCM4 downscaling simulations on the air environment carrying capacity (AEC) and weak ventilation days (WVDs) in China, which are applied to measure haze pollution potential. Their changes during the middle and the end of the 21st century were also projected. The evaluations show that the RegCM4 downscaling simulations can generally capture the observed features of the AEC and WVD distributions over the period 1986–2005. The projections indicate that the annual AEC tends to decrease and the annual WVDs tend to increase over almost the whole country except central China, concurrent with greater change by the late 21st century than by the middle of the 21st century. It suggests that annual haze pollution potential would be enlarged under the RCP4.5 scenario compared to the present. For seasonal change in the four main economic zones of China, it is projected consistently that there would be a higher probability of haze pollution risk over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region and the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region in winter and over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region in spring and summer in the context of the warming scenario. Over Northeast China (NEC), future climate change might reduce the AEC or increase the WVDs throughout the whole year, which favours the occurrence of haze pollution and thus the haze pollution risk would be aggravated. The relative contribution of different components related to the AEC change further indicates that changes in the boundary layer depth and the wind speed play leading roles in the AEC change over the BTH and NEC regions. In addition to those two factors, the precipitation change also exerts important impacts on the AEC change over the YRD and PRD zones.

Realised added value in dynamical downscaling of Australian climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giovanni Di Virgilio ◽  
Jason P. Evans ◽  
Alejandro Di Luca ◽  
Michael R. Grose ◽  
Vanessa Round ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Australian Alps ◽  
Future Climate Projections

<p>Coarse resolution global climate models (GCM) cannot resolve fine-scale drivers of regional climate, which is the scale where climate adaptation decisions are made. Regional climate models (RCMs) generate high-resolution projections by dynamically downscaling GCM outputs. However, evidence of where and when downscaling provides new information about both the current climate (added value, AV) and projected climate change signals, relative to driving data, is lacking. Seasons and locations where CORDEX-Australasia ERA-Interim and GCM-driven RCMs show AV for mean and extreme precipitation and temperature are identified. A new concept is introduced, ‘realised added value’, that identifies where and when RCMs simultaneously add value in the present climate and project a different climate change signal, thus suggesting plausible improvements in future climate projections by RCMs. ERA-Interim-driven RCMs add value to the simulation of summer-time mean precipitation, especially over northern and eastern Australia. GCM-driven RCMs show AV for precipitation over complex orography in south-eastern Australia during winter and widespread AV for mean and extreme minimum temperature during both seasons, especially over coastal and high-altitude areas. RCM projections of decreased winter rainfall over the Australian Alps and decreased summer rainfall over northern Australia are collocated with notable realised added value. Realised added value averaged across models, variables, seasons and statistics is evident across the majority of Australia and shows where plausible improvements in future climate projections are conferred by RCMs. This assessment of varying RCM capabilities to provide realised added value to GCM projections can be applied globally to inform climate adaptation and model development.</p>

An Assessment of Observed and Simulated Temperature Variability in Sierra de Guadarrama (Spain)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristina Vegas Cañas ◽  
J. Fidel González Rouco ◽  
Jorge Navarro Montesinos ◽  
Elena García Bustamante ◽  
Etor E. Lucio Eceiza ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Western Europe ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Monitoring Network ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Highly Correlated

<p>This work provides a first assessment of temperature variability from interannual to multidecadal timescales in Sierra de Guadarrama, located in central Spain, from observations and regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Observational data are provided by the Guadarrama Monitoring Network (GuMNet; www.ucm.es/gumnet) at higher altitudes, up to 2225 masl, and by the Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMet) at lower sites. An experiment at high horizontal resolution of 1 km using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) RCM, feeding from ERA Interim inputs, is used. Through model-data comparison, it is shown that the simulations are annually and seasonally highly representative of the observations, although there is a tendency in the model to underestimate observational temperatures, mostly at high altitudes. Results show that WRF provides an added value in relation to the reanalysis, with improved correlation and error metrics relative to observations.</p><p>The analysis of temperature trends shows a warming in the area during the last 20 years, very significant in autumn. When spanning the analysis to the whole observational period, back to the beginning of the 20th century at some sites, significant annual and seasonal temperature increases of 1℃/decade develop, most of them happening during de 1970s, although not as intense as during the last 20 years.</p><p>The temporal variability of temperature anomalies in the Sierra de Guadarrama is highly correlated with the temperatures in the interior of the Iberian Peninsula. This relationship can be extended broadly over south-western Europe.</p>

Hydrological evaluation of high-resolution precipitation estimates from the WRF model in the Third Pole river basins

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
He Sun ◽  
Fengge Su ◽  
Zhihua He ◽  
Tinghai Ou ◽  
Deliang Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Flood Prediction ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
Precipitation Estimates

AbstractIn this study, two sets of precipitation estimates based on the regional Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) –the high Asia refined analysis (HAR) and outputs with a 9 km resolution from WRF (WRF-9km) are evaluated at both basin and point scales, and their potential hydrological utilities are investigated by driving the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) large-scale land surface hydrological model in seven Third Pole (TP) basins. The regional climate model (RCM) tends to overestimate the gauge-based estimates by 20–95% in annual means among the selected basins. Relative to the gauge observations, the RCM precipitation estimates can accurately detect daily precipitation events of varying intensities (with absolute bias < 3 mm). The WRF-9km exhibits a high potential for hydrological application in the monsoon-dominated basins in the southeastern TP (with NSE of 0.7–0.9 and bias of -11% to 3%), while the HAR performs well in the upper Indus (UI) and upper Brahmaputra (UB) basins (with NSE of 0.6 and bias of -15% to -9%). Both the RCM precipitation estimates can accurately capture the magnitudes of low and moderate daily streamflow, but show limited capabilities in flood prediction in most of the TP basins. This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of the strength and limitation of RCMs precipitation in hydrological modeling in the TP with complex terrains and sparse gauge observations.

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