Coasts, water levels, and climate change: A Great Lakes perspective

2013 ◽  
Vol 120 (4) ◽  
pp. 697-711 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew D. Gronewold ◽  
Vincent Fortin ◽  
Brent Lofgren ◽  
Anne Clites ◽  
Craig A. Stow ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Great Lakes ◽  
Water Levels

scholarly journals Establishing Climate Change Resilience in the Great Lakes in Response to Flooding

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (01) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gwendolyn E Gallagher ◽  
Ryan K Duncombe ◽  
Timothy M Steeves
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Great Lakes ◽  
Environmental Protection Agency ◽  
High Water ◽  
The United States ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Freshwater Resource

Over the past decade, both the average rainfall and the frequency of high precipitation storm events in the Great Lakes Basin have been steadily increasing as a consequence of climate change. In this same period, cities and communities along the coasts are experiencing record high water levels and severe flooding events (ECC Canada et al. 2018). When cities are unprepared for these floods, the safety of communities and the water quality of the Great Lakes are jeopardized. For example, coastal flooding increases runoff pollution and contaminates the freshwater resource that 40 million people rely on for drinking water (Lyandres and Welch 2012, Roth 2016). Since the Great Lakes are shared between two nations, the United States and Canada, the region is protected by several international treaties and national compacts, including the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement (GLWQA) and the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI). In order to increase climate change resiliency against flooding in the region, we recommend the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) work with Environment and Climate Change Canada to relocate the GLRI under the GLWQA in order to guarantee consistent funding and protection efforts. We additionally recommend expansion of both agreements in their scope and long-term commitments to engender cooperative efforts to protect the Great Lakes against climate change.

scholarly journals Physically Plausible Methods for Projecting Changes in Great Lakes Water Levels under Climate Change Scenarios

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (8) ◽  
pp. 2209-2223 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brent M. Lofgren ◽  
Jonathan Rouhana
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Great Lakes ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Conservation Of Energy ◽  
Near Surface

Abstract A method for projecting the water levels of the Laurentian Great Lakes under scenarios of human-caused climate change, used almost to the exclusion of other methods in the past, relies very heavily on the large basin runoff model (LBRM) as a component for determining the water budget for the lake system. This model uses near-surface air temperature as a primary predictor of evapotranspiration (ET); as in previous published work, it is shown here that the model’s very high sensitivity to temperature causes it to overestimate ET in a way that is greatly at variance with the fundamental principle of conservation of energy at the land surface. The traditional formulation is characterized here as being equivalent to having several suns in the virtual sky created by LBRM. More physically based methods show, relative to the traditional method, often astoundingly less potential ET and less ET, more runoff from the land and net basin supply for the lake basins, and higher lake water levels in the future. Using various methods of estimating the statistical significance, it is found that, at minimum, these discrepancies in results are significant at the 99.998% level. The lesson for the larger climate impact community is to use caution about whether an impact is forced directly by air temperature itself or is significantly forced by season or latitude independently of temperature. The results here apply only to the water levels of the Great Lakes and the hydrology of its basin and do not affect larger questions of climate change.

scholarly journals Economic damages from Hurricane Sandy attributable to sea level rise caused by anthropogenic climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin H. Strauss ◽  
Philip M. Orton ◽  
Klaus Bittermann ◽  
Maya K. Buchanan ◽  
Daniel M. Gilford ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
East Coast ◽  
The United States ◽  
Hurricane Sandy ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Sea Levels

AbstractIn 2012, Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast of the United States, creating widespread coastal flooding and over $60 billion in reported economic damage. The potential influence of climate change on the storm itself has been debated, but sea level rise driven by anthropogenic climate change more clearly contributed to damages. To quantify this effect, here we simulate water levels and damage both as they occurred and as they would have occurred across a range of lower sea levels corresponding to different estimates of attributable sea level rise. We find that approximately $8.1B ($4.7B–$14.0B, 5th–95th percentiles) of Sandy’s damages are attributable to climate-mediated anthropogenic sea level rise, as is extension of the flood area to affect 71 (40–131) thousand additional people. The same general approach demonstrated here may be applied to impact assessments for other past and future coastal storms.

scholarly journals Multiple climate change-driven tipping points for coastal systems

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick L. Barnard ◽  
Jenifer E. Dugan ◽  
Henry M. Page ◽  
Nathan J. Wood ◽  
Juliette A. Finzi Hart ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Sandy Beaches ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Tipping Points ◽  
Socioeconomic Impacts ◽  
Hazard Exposure ◽  
Coastal Systems ◽  
Projected Changes

AbstractAs the climate evolves over the next century, the interaction of accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and storms, combined with confining development and infrastructure, will place greater stresses on physical, ecological, and human systems along the ocean-land margin. Many of these valued coastal systems could reach “tipping points,” at which hazard exposure substantially increases and threatens the present-day form, function, and viability of communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Determining the timing and nature of these tipping points is essential for effective climate adaptation planning. Here we present a multidisciplinary case study from Santa Barbara, California (USA), to identify potential climate change-related tipping points for various coastal systems. This study integrates numerical and statistical models of the climate, ocean water levels, beach and cliff evolution, and two soft sediment ecosystems, sandy beaches and tidal wetlands. We find that tipping points for beaches and wetlands could be reached with just 0.25 m or less of SLR (~ 2050), with > 50% subsequent habitat loss that would degrade overall biodiversity and ecosystem function. In contrast, the largest projected changes in socioeconomic exposure to flooding for five communities in this region are not anticipated until SLR exceeds 0.75 m for daily flooding and 1.5 m for storm-driven flooding (~ 2100 or later). These changes are less acute relative to community totals and do not qualify as tipping points given the adaptive capacity of communities. Nonetheless, the natural and human built systems are interconnected such that the loss of natural system function could negatively impact the quality of life of residents and disrupt the local economy, resulting in indirect socioeconomic impacts long before built infrastructure is directly impacted by flooding.

scholarly journals The effects of ENSO, climate change and human activities on the water level of Lake Toba, Indonesia: a critical literature review

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hendri Irwandi ◽  
Mohammad Syamsu Rosid ◽  
Terry Mart
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Continuous Increase ◽  
The Future

AbstractThis research quantitatively and qualitatively analyzes the factors responsible for the water level variations in Lake Toba, North Sumatra Province, Indonesia. According to several studies carried out from 1993 to 2020, changes in the water level were associated with climate variability, climate change, and human activities. Furthermore, these studies stated that reduced rainfall during the rainy season due to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the continuous increase in the maximum and average temperatures were some of the effects of climate change in the Lake Toba catchment area. Additionally, human interventions such as industrial activities, population growth, and damage to the surrounding environment of the Lake Toba watershed had significant impacts in terms of decreasing the water level. However, these studies were unable to determine the factor that had the most significant effect, although studies on other lakes worldwide have shown these factors are the main causes of fluctuations or decreases in water levels. A simulation study of Lake Toba's water balance showed the possibility of having a water surplus until the mid-twenty-first century. The input discharge was predicted to be greater than the output; therefore, Lake Toba could be optimized without affecting the future water level. However, the climate projections depicted a different situation, with scenarios predicting the possibility of extreme climate anomalies, demonstrating drier climatic conditions in the future. This review concludes that it is necessary to conduct an in-depth, comprehensive, and systematic study to identify the most dominant factor among the three that is causing the decrease in the Lake Toba water level and to describe the future projected water level.

Three-dimensional bluff evolution in response to seasonal fluctuations in Great Lakes water levels

2020 ◽  
Vol 46 (6) ◽  
pp. 1533-1543 ◽  
Author(s):  
C.A. Volpano ◽  
L.K. Zoet ◽  
J.E. Rawling ◽  
E.J. Theuerkauf ◽  
R. Krueger
Keyword(s):  
Great Lakes ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Seasonal Fluctuations

scholarly journals Impact of Extreme Drought Climate on Water Security in North Borneo: Case Study of Sabah

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1135
Author(s):  
Carolyn Payus ◽  
Lim Ann Huey ◽  
Farrah Adnan ◽  
Andi Besse Rimba ◽  
Geetha Mohan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Water Security ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Extreme Drought ◽  
Northeast Monsoon ◽  
Water Insecurity ◽  
The North ◽  
North Borneo

For countries in Southeast Asia that mainly rely on surface water as their water resource, changes in weather patterns and hydrological systems due to climate change will cause severely decreased water resource availability. Warm weather triggers more water use and exacerbates the extraction of water resources, which will change the operation patterns of water usage and increase demand, resulting in water scarcity. The occurrence of prolonged drought upsets the balance between water supply and demand, significantly increasing the vulnerability of regions to damaging impacts. The objectives of this study are to identify trends and determine the impacts of extreme drought events on water levels for the major important water dams in the northern part of Borneo, and to assess the risk of water insecurity for the dams. In this context, remote sensing images are used to determine the degree of risk of water insecurity in the regions. Statistical methods are used in the analysis of daily water levels and rainfall data. The findings show that water levels in dams on the North and Northeast Coasts of Borneo are greatly affected by the extreme drought climate caused by the Northeast Monsoon, with mild to the high risk recorded in terms of water insecurity, with only two of the water dams being water-secure. This study shows how climate change has affected water availability throughout the regions.

scholarly journals Carbon Fixation Trends in Eleven of the World’s Largest Lakes: 2003–2018

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 3500
Author(s):  
Michael Sayers ◽  
Karl Bosse ◽  
Gary Fahnenstiel ◽  
Robert Shuchman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Primary Production ◽  
Great Lakes ◽  
Satellite Remote Sensing ◽  
Carbon Fixation ◽  
African Great Lakes ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Bear Lake ◽  
Great Slave Lake ◽  
Significant Production

Large freshwater lakes provide immense value to the surrounding populations, yet there is limited understanding of how these lakes will respond to climate change and other factors. This study uses satellite remote sensing to estimate annual, lake-wide primary production in 11 of the world’s largest lakes from 2003–2018. These lakes include the five Laurentian Great Lakes, the three African Great Lakes, Lake Baikal, and Great Bear and Great Slave Lakes. Mean annual production in these lakes ranged from under 200 mgC/m2/day to over 1100 mgC/m2/day, and the lakes were placed into one of three distinct groups (oligotrophic, mesotrophic, or eutrophic) based on their level of production. The analysis revealed only three lakes with significant production trends over the study period, with increases in Great Bear Lake (24% increase over the study period) and Great Slave Lake (27%) and a decline in Lake Tanganyika (−16%). These changes appear to be related to climate change, including increasing temperatures and solar radiation and decreasing wind speeds. This study is the first to use consistent methodology to study primary production in the world’s largest lakes, allowing for these novel between-lake comparisons and assessment of inter-annual trends.

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