Spatial identification and scenario simulation of the ecological transition zones under the climate change in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 497-517
Author(s):  
Zemeng Fan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Scenario Simulation ◽  
Transition Zones ◽  
Ecological Transition ◽  
Spatial Identification

scholarly journals Systematic Correlation Matrix Evaluation (SCoMaE) – A bottom-up, natural science-based approach to identify Indicators

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadine Mengis ◽  
David P. Keller ◽  
Andreas Oschlies
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Correlation Matrix ◽  
Expert Judgment ◽  
Comparative Assessment ◽  
Systematic Evaluation ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Scenario Simulation ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
The Earth

Abstract. This study introduces the Systematic Correlation Matrix Evaluation (SCoMaE) method, a bottom-up approach which combines expert judgment and statistical information to systematically select transparent, non redundant indicators for a com- prehensive assessment of the state of the Earth system. The methods consists of three basic steps: 1) Calculation of a correlation matrix among variables relevant for a given research question, 2) Systematic evaluation of the matrix, to identify clusters of variables with similar behavior and respective mutually independent indicators, and 3) Interpretation of the identified clusters, enabling a learning effect from the selection of indicators. Optional further analysis steps include: 4) Testing the robustness of identified clusters with respect to changes in forcing or boundary conditions, 5) Enabling a comparative assessment of varying scenarios by constructing and evaluating a common correlation matrix, or 6) Inclusion of expert judgment such as to prescribe indicators, to allow for considerations other than statistical consistency. The exemplary application of the SCoMaE method to Earth system model output forced by different CO2 emission scenarios reveals the necessity of re-evaluating indicators identified in a historical scenario simulation for an accurate assessment of an intermediate-high, as well as a business-as-usual, climate change scenario simulation, which arises from changes in prevailing correlations in the Earth system under varying climate forcing. For a comparative assessment of the three climate change scenarios, we construct and evaluate a common correlation matrix, in which we identify robust correlations between variables across the three considered scenarios.

scholarly journals Province of Cádiz Coastal Management Programme

2020 ◽  
pp. 233-240
Author(s):  
Irene Ares Sainz ◽  
Pablo Quero García ◽  
Pedro José Zarandona Palacio
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Coastal Management ◽  
Management Programme ◽  
Provincial Government ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Ecological Value ◽  
Erosion Processes ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Western Spain ◽  
Ecological Transition

The coast of the province of Cádiz (south-western Spain) is a high ecological value area and great socioeconomic importance: coastal municipalities account more than 60% of the province’s population and support key development sectors (tourism, shipbuilding, maritime traffic, etc.). It is also a fragile, dynamic and complex system affected by many human pressures. Climate change is also threatening coastal areas. Its evidences are becoming increasingly clear in the province: intensification of coastal erosion processes, sea level rise or an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. The Provincial Government of Cádiz has developed, with support of the Ministry for the Ecological Transition through the Biodiversity Foundation, a Coastal Management Programme with the aim to face climate challenge by integrating adaptation in coastal municipalities’ planning and management. Through a participatory process, 57 measures to be implemented in the short/medium term have been defined targeting the field of information and knowledge, education and communication, training, cooperation and assistance to municipalities and resources. In a complementary way, Covenant for the Sustainability of the Coast has been launched, as a tool for communication, coordination and inter-administrative cooperation in the provincial coastal area. Support material and capacity building actions for local entities’ representative have been developed. The Programme also includes actions to support environmental education on climate change on the coast. Keywords: Adaptation, integrated coastal management, climate change, municipality, Cádiz.

scholarly journals Shifts in Dry-Wet Climate Regions over China and Its Related Climate Factors between 1960–1989 and 1990–2019

2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 719
Author(s):  
Jinqin Xu ◽  
Xiaochen Zhu ◽  
Mengxi Li ◽  
Xinfa Qiu ◽  
Dandan Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Development ◽  
Junggar Basin ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Western China ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Climate Type ◽  
Transition Zones ◽  
Wet Climate ◽  
Semi Arid

The shifts in dry-wet climate regions are a natural response to climate change and have a profound impact on the regional agriculture and ecosystems. In this paper, we divided China into four dry-wet climate regions, i.e., arid, semi-arid, semi-humid, and humid regions, based on the humidity index (HI). A comparison of the two 30-year periods, i.e., 1960–1989 and 1990–2019, revealed that there was a shift in climate type in each dry-wet climate region, with six newly formed transitions, and the total area of the shifts to wetter conditions was more than two times larger than that of the shifts to drier conditions. Interestingly, the shifts to drier types were basically distributed in the monsoon region (east of 100∘ E) and especially concentrated in the North China Plain where agricultural development relies heavily on irrigation, which would increase the challenges in dealing with water shortage and food production security under a warming climate. The transitions to wetter types were mainly distributed in western China (west of 100∘ E), and most areas of the Junggar Basin have changed from arid to semi-arid region, which should benefit the local agricultural production and ecological environment to some extent. Based on a contribution analysis method, we further quantified the impacts of each climate factor on HI changes. Our results demonstrated that the dominant factor controlling HI changes in the six newly formed transition regions was P, followed by air temperature (Ta). In the non-transition zones of the arid and semi-arid regions, an increase in P dominated the increase of HI. However, in the non-transition zones of the semi-humid and humid region with a more humid background climate, the thermal factors (e.g., Ta, and net radiation (Rn)) contributed more than or equivalent to the contribution of P to HI change. These findings can provide scientific reference for water resources management and sustainable agricultural development in the context of climate change.

scholarly journals Precipitation and vegetation shape patterns of genomic and craniometric variation in the central African rodent Praomys misonnei

2020 ◽  
Vol 287 (1930) ◽  
pp. 20200449
Author(s):  
Katy Morgan ◽  
Jean-François Mboumba ◽  
Stephan Ntie ◽  
Patrick Mickala ◽  
Courtney A. Miller ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Genomic Variation ◽  
Conservation Strategies ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Evolutionary Potential ◽  
Standing Variation ◽  
Craniometric Variation ◽  
Ecological Transition ◽  
Effective Conservation

Predicting species' capacity to respond to climate change is an essential first step in developing effective conservation strategies. However, conservation prioritization schemes rarely take evolutionary potential into account. Ecotones provide important opportunities for diversifying selection and may thus constitute reservoirs of standing variation, increasing the capacity for future adaptation. Here, we map patterns of environmentally associated genomic and craniometric variation in the central African rodent Praomys misonnei to identify areas with the greatest turnover in genomic composition. We also project patterns of environmentally associated genomic variation under future climate change scenarios to determine where populations may be under the greatest pressure to adapt. While precipitation gradients influence both genomic and craniometric variation, vegetation structure is also an important determinant of craniometric variation. Areas of elevated environmentally associated genomic and craniometric variation overlap with zones of rapid ecological transition underlining their importance as reservoirs of evolutionary potential. We also find that populations in the Sanaga river basin, central Cameroon and coastal Gabon are likely to be under the greatest pressure from climate change. Lastly, we make specific conservation recommendations on how to protect zones of high evolutionary potential and identify areas where populations may be the most susceptible to climate change.

scholarly journals Land Use and Climate Change Effects on Surface Runoff Variations in the Upper Heihe River Basin

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 344 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xingxing Shang ◽  
Xiaohui Jiang ◽  
Ruining Jia ◽  
Chen Wei
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Simulation Analysis ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Heihe River ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Scenario Simulation ◽  
Contribution Rate ◽  
Ecological Protection

The runoff in the upper reaches of the Heihe River has been continuously abundant for more than a decade, and this has not happened previously in history. Quantitative analysis of runoff variation and its influencing factors are of great significance for the ecological protection of the basin. In this paper, the soil and water assessment tool model was used to simulate runoff in the study area, and the method of scenario simulation was used to quantitatively analyze the runoff response with respect to land use and climate change. According to the abruptness of the runoff sequence, the years before 2004 are categorized as belonging to the reference period, and after 2004 is categorized as the interference period. According to the analysis, compared with the reference period, the contribution rate of climate change is 87.15%, while the contribution rate of land use change is only 12.85%. The climate change scenario simulation analysis shows that the change in runoff is positively correlated with the change in precipitation. The relationship with the change in temperature is more complicated, but the influence of precipitation change is stronger than the change in temperature. According to the land use scenario simulation analysis, under the economic development scenario, the runoff decreased, whereas under the historical trend and ecological protection scenario, the runoff increased. Additionally, the runoff increased more under the ecological protection scenario.

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