scholarly journals Primary elections and electoral outcomes: evidence from the Spanish Socialist Party

SERIEs ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Riccardo Ciacci ◽  
Ana Garcia-Hernandez ◽  
Jorge García-Hombrados ◽  
Laura Gismera ◽  
Antonio Núñez-Partido
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Causal Link ◽  
Primary Elections ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
The Right

AbstractUsing a regression discontinuity design and primary elections to select Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) mayoral candidates as a case study, this paper investigates the causal link between primary elections and electoral outcomes. The results suggest that selecting the PSOE’s mayoral candidate through primary elections has no effect on the percentage of votes and total votes received by the PSOE’s candidate in local elections, the probability of gaining the mayorship and the local government’s stability. On the other hand, the results suggest that PSOE’s primary elections result in increased votes for competing political parties to the right of the PSOE and in reduced votes for competing parties to the left of the PSOE.

The Primary Effect: Preference Votes and Political Promotions

2016 ◽  
Vol 110 (3) ◽  
pp. 559-578 ◽  
Author(s):  
OLLE FOLKE ◽  
TORSTEN PERSSON ◽  
JOHANNA RICKNE
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Primary Elections ◽  
Primary Effect ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Electoral Rules ◽  
Party Leaders ◽  
Internal Organization ◽  
Causal Impact ◽  
Local Party

In this analysis of how electoral rules and outcomes shape the internal organization of political parties, we make an analogy to primary elections to argue that parties use preference-vote tallies to identify popular politicians and promote them to positions of power. We document this behavior among parties in Sweden's semi-open-list system and in Brazil's open-list system. To identify a causal impact of preference votes, we exploit a regression discontinuity design around the threshold of winning the most preference votes on a party list. In our main case, Sweden, these narrow “primary winners” are at least 50% more likely to become local party leaders than their runners-up. Across individual politicians, the primary effect is present only for politicians who hold the first few positions on the list and when the preference-vote winner and runner-up have similar competence levels. Across party groups, the primary effect is the strongest in unthreatened governing parties.

Funding Liquidity Risk and the Dynamics of Hedge Fund Lockups

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-29
Author(s):  
Adam L. Aiken ◽  
Christopher P. Clifford ◽  
Jesse A. Ellis ◽  
Qiping Huang
Keyword(s):  
Hedge Funds ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Hedge Fund ◽  
Liquidity Risk ◽  
Causal Link ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Control Variables ◽  
Funding Liquidity ◽  
And Control ◽  
Funding Risk

Abstract We exploit the expiring nature of hedge fund lockups to create a new measure of funding liquidity risk that varies within funds. We find that hedge funds with lower funding risk generate higher returns, and this effect is driven by their increased exposure to equity-mispricing anomalies. Our results are robust to a variety of sampling criteria, variable definitions, and control variables. Further, we address endogeneity concerns in various ways, including a placebo approach and regression discontinuity design. Collectively, our results support a causal link between funding risk and the ability of managers to engage in risky arbitrage.

scholarly journals What Happens When Extremists Win Primaries?

2015 ◽  
Vol 109 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
ANDREW B. HALL
Keyword(s):  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
General Election ◽  
Primary Elections ◽  
Legislative Behavior ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Roll Call ◽  
Primary Election ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The U.S

This article studies the interplay of U.S. primary and general elections. I examine how the nomination of an extremist changes general-election outcomes and legislative behavior in the U.S. House, 1980–2010, using a regression discontinuity design in primary elections. When an extremist—as measured by primary-election campaign receipt patterns—wins a “coin-flip” election over a more moderate candidate, the party’s general-election vote share decreases on average by approximately 9–13 percentage points, and the probability that the party wins the seat decreases by 35–54 percentage points. This electoral penalty is so large that nominating the more extreme primary candidate causes the district’s subsequent roll-call representation to reverse, on average, becoming more liberal when an extreme Republican is nominated and more conservative when an extreme Democrat is nominated. Overall, the findings show how general-election voters act as a moderating filter in response to primary nominations.

scholarly journals The Use of Primaries by Political Parties: The Case of PASOK

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 89-110
Author(s):  
Gregory T. Papanikos
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Media Coverage ◽  
Primary Elections ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Positive Role ◽  
Important Conclusion ◽  
General Elections ◽  
History Of ◽  
Low Performance ◽  
The Right

This paper examines the primary elections of the PanHellenic Socialist Party (PASOK) which were held on 5th and 12th of December 2021. Six candidates run for the position of the president in the first round and two runners-up in the second. As mentioned in the literature, there is a dearth of primary elections studies relative to general elections. The latter attract the attention of mass media for the obvious reason: they determine who or which party will govern the country or any other political entity. Nevertheless, there is a growing literature on primary studies. There are three aspects researched in this literature: (a) primary elections systems, (b) why a political party decides to hold primary elections and (c) the selection criteria of candidates and voters. This paper uses the existing literature to analyze some facets of the history of PASOK’s primary elections, emphasizing the most recent one of 2021. The most important conclusion emerging from this analysis is that ideology did play a role, particularly the candidates’ stance on their possible collaboration with the right-wing or the left-wing parties, which has been a controversial issue in the last decade. Another important conclusion is that PASOK voters opted for a younger candidate primarily because they wanted to get out of the current stalemate of PASOK’s low performance in general elections. As predicted from the literature, the competition between the six candidates resulted in a large turnout on the ballot date even though other factors played a positive role such as very good weather and a wide media coverage. Keywords: primaries, elections, voting, political parties, PASOK, Greece

scholarly journals The Use of Primaries by Political Parties: The Case of PASOK

2022 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 201-222
Author(s):  
Gregory T. Papanikos
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Media Coverage ◽  
Primary Elections ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Positive Role ◽  
Important Conclusion ◽  
General Elections ◽  
History Of ◽  
Low Performance ◽  
The Right

This paper examines the primary elections of the PanHellenic Socialist Party (PASOK) which were held on 5th and 12th of December 2021. Six candidates run for the position of the president in the first round and two runners-up in the second. As mentioned in the literature, there is a dearth of primary elections studies relative to general elections. The latter attract the attention of mass media for the obvious reason: they determine who or which party will govern the country or any other political entity. Nevertheless, there is a growing literature on primary studies. There are three aspects researched in this literature: (a) primary elections systems, (b) why a political party decides to hold primary elections and (c) the selection criteria of candidates and voters. This paper uses the existing literature to analyze some facets of the history of PASOK’s primary elections, emphasizing the most recent one of 2021. The most important conclusion emerging from this analysis is that ideology did play a role, particularly the candidates’ stance on their possible collaboration with the right-wing or the left-wing parties, which has been a controversial issue in the last decade. Another important conclusion is that PASOK voters opted for a younger candidate primarily because they wanted to get out of the current stalemate of PASOK’s low performance in general elections. As predicted from the literature, the competition between the six candidates resulted in a large turnout on the ballot date even though other factors played a positive role such as very good weather and a wide media coverage. Keywords: primaries, elections, voting, political parties, PASOK, Greece

scholarly journals INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND AND ITS IMPACT ON IDEOLOGICAL STRUCTURING OF POLITICAL PARTIES

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 251-255
Author(s):  
Roland Lami
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
International Monetary Fund ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Political Perspective ◽  
The Right ◽  
The International Monetary Fund

One of the institutions that has played a very important role in the post-communist period in Albania, is the International Monetary Fund (IMF). For pragmatic reasons or for guaranteeing their legitimacy, political parties have found it indispensable to cooperate with this institution. But, if we consider the role of the IMF from ideological perspectives, we would find that regardless of which party was in power (Socialist Party or Democratic Party) the respective government still has to follow its instructions and recommendations of a neoliberal nature.  This behavior has prevented political parties, especially those of the left wing, to get structured from the perspective of ideological profile.  For this reason, the entire discussion is mainly focused on the left-wing political perspective, as the principles of the right wing are closer to the IMF’s neoliberal philosophy, from the ideological standpoint.

scholarly journals Proportional ranking in primary elections: A case study

2022 ◽  
pp. 135406882110667
Author(s):  
Ariel Rosenfeld ◽  
Ehud Shapiro ◽  
Nimrod Talmon
Keyword(s):  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Real World ◽  
Primary Elections ◽  
Real World Data ◽  
World Data ◽  
Primary Election ◽  
Aggregation Methods ◽  
Voter Groups

Many democratic political parties hold primary elections, which nicely reflects their democratic nature and promote, among other things, the democratic value of inclusiveness. However, the methods currently used for holding such primary elections may not be the most suitable, especially if some form of proportional ranking is desired. In this paper, we compare different algorithmic methods for holding primaries (i.e., different aggregation methods for voters’ ballots) by evaluating the degree of proportional ranking that is achieved by each of them using real-world data. In particular, we compare six different algorithms by analyzing real-world data from a recent primary election conducted by the Israeli Democratit party. Technically, we analyze unique voter data and evaluate the proportionality achieved by means of cluster analysis, aiming at pinpointing the representation that is granted to different voter groups under each of the algorithmic methods considered. Our finding suggest that, contrary to the most-prominent primaries algorithm used (i.e., Approval), other methods such as Sequential Proportional Approval or Phragmen can bring about better proportional ranking and thus may be better suited for primary elections in practice.

scholarly journals The Political Economy of Program Enforcement: Evidence from Brazil

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 750-791 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernanda Brollo ◽  
Katja Kaufmann ◽  
Eliana La Ferrara
Keyword(s):  
Political Economy ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
School Attendance ◽  
The Political ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Welfare Programs ◽  
Municipal Elections ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Poor Families ◽  
Bolsa Familia

Abstract Do politicians manipulate the enforcement of conditional welfare programs to influence electoral outcomes? We study the Bolsa Familia Program (BFP) in Brazil, which provides a monthly stipend to poor families conditional on school attendance. Repeated failure to comply with this requirement results in increasing penalties. First, we exploit random variation in the timing when beneficiaries learn about penalties for noncompliance around the 2008 municipal elections. We find that the vote share of candidates aligned with the president is lower in zip codes where more beneficiaries received penalties shortly before (as opposed to shortly after) the elections. Second, we show that politicians strategically manipulate enforcement. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find weaker enforcement before elections in municipalities where mayors from the presidential coalition can run for reelection. We provide evidence that manipulation occurs through misreporting school attendance, particularly in municipalities with a higher fraction of students in schools with politically connected principals.

Does a farmland zoning program impact farm income: empirical evidence from farm households in Taiwan

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (5) ◽  
pp. 1621-1643
Author(s):  
Hung-Hao Chang ◽  
Tzu-Chin Lin
Keyword(s):  
Income Distribution ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Wealth Effect ◽  
Farm Households ◽  
Farm Income ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Program Impact ◽  
Farm Operators ◽  
On Farm

Abstract Does farmland zoning affect farm income, and why? This study addresses these questions using a case study in Taiwan. We use a unique farmland-level dataset and apply the regression discontinuity design to quantify the effects of zoning on farm income. We find that the zoning program decreases farm income. The programme effects are heterogeneous, as they are more pronounced for farms in the higher percentiles of the farm income distribution. Moreover, a larger effect is found for elderly farm operators. Concerning the mechanism, we argue that the zoning program generated an optional benefit or wealth effect for eligible farms. This wealth effect then reallocates family labour to off-farm jobs. Consequently, the zoning program reduces income from farming.

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