Future Changes in Water Availability Due to Climate Change Projections for Huong Basin, Vietnam

Abstract. Central Asian water resources largely depend on melt water generated in the Pamir and Tien Shan mountain ranges. To estimate future water availability in this region, it is necessary to use climate projections to estimate the future glacier extent and volume. In this study, we evaluate the impact of uncertainty in climate change projections on the future glacier extent in the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. To this end we use the latest climate change projections generated for the upcoming IPCC report (CMIP5) and, for comparison, projections used in the fourth IPCC assessment (CMIP3). With these projections we force a regionalized glacier mass balance model, and estimate changes in the basins' glacier extent as a function of the glacier size distribution in the basins and projected temperature and precipitation. This glacier mass balance model is specifically developed for implementation in large scale hydrological models, where the spatial resolution does not allow for simulating individual glaciers and data scarcity is an issue. Although the CMIP5 ensemble results in greater regional warming than the CMIP3 ensemble and the range in projections for temperature as well as precipitation is wider for the CMIP5 than for the CMIP3, the spread in projections of future glacier extent in Central Asia is similar for both ensembles. This is because differences in temperature rise are small during periods of maximum melt (July–September) while differences in precipitation change are small during the period of maximum accumulation (October–February). However, the model uncertainty due to parameter uncertainty is high, and has roughly the same importance as uncertainty in the climate projections. Uncertainty about the size of the decline in glacier extent remains large, making estimates of future Central Asian glacier evolution and downstream water availability uncertain.

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New climate change scenarios reveal uncertain future for Central Asian glaciers

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/hessd-9-12691-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 9 (11) ◽

pp. 12691-12727 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

A. F. Lutz ◽

W. W. Immerzeel ◽

A. Gobiet ◽

F. Pellicciotti ◽

M. F. P. Bierkens

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Central Asia ◽

Water Availability ◽

River Basins ◽

Aral Sea ◽

Climate Change Projections ◽

Glacier Melt ◽

Central Asian ◽

The Future ◽

Syr Darya

Abstract. Central Asian water resources largely depend on (glacier) melt water generated in the Pamir and Tien Shan mountain ranges, located in the basins of the Amu and Syr Darya rivers, important life lines in Central Asia and the prominent water source of the Aral Sea. To estimate future water availability in the region, it is thus necessary to project the future glacier extent and volume in the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. The aim of this study is to quantify the impact of uncertainty in climate change projections on the future glacier extent in the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. The latest climate change projections provided by the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) generated for the upcoming fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are used to model future glacier extent in the Central Asian region for the two large river basins. The outcomes are compared to model results obtained with the climate change projections used for the fourth IPCC assessment (CMIP3). We use a regionalized glacier mass balance model to estimate changes in glacier extent as a function of glacier size and projections of temperature and precipitation. The model is developed for implementation in (large scale) hydrological models, when the spatial model resolution does not allow for modelling of individual glaciers and data scarcity is an issue. Both CMIP3 and CMIP5 model simulations point towards a strong decline in glacier extent in Central Asia. However, compared to the CMIP3 projections, the CMIP5 projections of future glacier extent in Central Asia provide a wider range of outcomes, mostly owing to greater variability in precipitation projections among the latest suite of climate models. These findings have great impact on projections of the timing and quantity of water availability in glacier melt dominated rivers in the region. Uncertainty about the size of the decline in glacier extent remains large, making estimates of future Central Asian glacier extent and downstream water availability uncertain.

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Uncertainty in CMIP6 climate change projections for the Australian monsoon is tied to hemispheric-scale changes

10.1002/essoar.10501518.1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Sugata Narsey ◽

Josephine R. Brown ◽

Robert A. Colman ◽

Francois Delage ◽

Scott Brendan Power ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Projections ◽

Australian Monsoon

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Climate change projections reveal range shifts of eelgrass Zostera marina in the Northwest Atlantic

Marine Ecology Progress Series ◽

10.3354/meps12973 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 620 ◽

pp. 47-62 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

KL Wilson ◽

HK Lotze

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Zostera Marina ◽

Range Shifts ◽

Climate Change Projections ◽

Northwest Atlantic

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Simulating plant water availability in dry lands under climate change: A generic model of two soil layers

Water Resources Research ◽

10.1029/2007wr006589 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 45 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 31

Author(s):

Britta Tietjen ◽

Erwin Zehe ◽

Florian Jeltsch

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Availability ◽

Generic Model ◽

Plant Water ◽

Soil Layers ◽

Dry Lands

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Characterizing Growing Season Length of Subtropical Coniferous Forests with a Phenological Model

Forests ◽

10.3390/f12010095 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 95

Author(s):

Yuan Gong ◽

Christina L. Staudhammer ◽

Susanne Wiesner ◽

Gregory Starr ◽

Yinlong Zhang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Soil Water ◽

Prescribed Fire ◽

Water Availability ◽

Longleaf Pine ◽

Growing Season ◽

Soil Water Availability ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Short Term ◽

Phenological Model

Understanding plant phenological change is of great concern in the context of global climate change. Phenological models can aid in understanding and predicting growing season changes and can be parameterized with gross primary production (GPP) estimated using the eddy covariance (EC) technique. This study used nine years of EC-derived GPP data from three mature subtropical longleaf pine forests in the southeastern United States with differing soil water holding capacity in combination with site-specific micrometeorological data to parameterize a photosynthesis-based phenological model. We evaluated how weather conditions and prescribed fire led to variation in the ecosystem phenological processes. The results suggest that soil water availability had an effect on phenology, and greater soil water availability was associated with a longer growing season (LOS). We also observed that prescribed fire, a common forest management activity in the region, had a limited impact on phenological processes. Dormant season fire had no significant effect on phenological processes by site, but we observed differences in the start of the growing season (SOS) between fire and non-fire years. Fire delayed SOS by 10 d ± 5 d (SE), and this effect was greater with higher soil water availability, extending SOS by 18 d on average. Fire was also associated with increased sensitivity of spring phenology to radiation and air temperature. We found that interannual climate change and periodic weather anomalies (flood, short-term drought, and long-term drought), controlled annual ecosystem phenological processes more than prescribed fire. When water availability increased following short-term summer drought, the growing season was extended. With future climate change, subtropical areas of the Southeastern US are expected to experience more frequent short-term droughts, which could shorten the region’s growing season and lead to a reduction in the longleaf pine ecosystem’s carbon sequestration capacity.

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Heating and Cooling Degree-Days Climate Change Projections for Portugal

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos12060715 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (6) ◽

pp. 715

Author(s):

Cristina Andrade ◽

Sandra Mourato ◽

João Ramos

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

High Resolution ◽

Thermal Comfort ◽

Energy Demand ◽

Residential Buildings ◽

Degree Days ◽

Climate Change Projections ◽

Heating And Cooling ◽

Cooling Degree Days ◽

Heating Energy Demand

Climate change is expected to influence cooling and heating energy demand of residential buildings and affect overall thermal comfort. Towards this end, the heating (HDD) and cooling (CDD) degree-days along with HDD + CDD were computed from an ensemble of seven high-resolution bias-corrected simulations attained from EURO-CORDEX under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). These three indicators were analyzed for 1971–2000 (from E-OBS) and 2011–2040, and 2041–2070, under both RCPs. Results predict a decrease in HDDs most significant under RCP8.5. Conversely, it is projected an increase of CDD values for both scenarios. The decrease in HDDs is projected to be higher than the increase in CDDs hinting to an increase in the energy demand to cool internal environments in Portugal. Statistically significant linear CDD trends were only found for 2041–2070 under RCP4.5. Towards 2070, higher(lower) CDD (HDD and HDD + CDD) anomaly amplitudes are depicted, mainly under RCP8.5. Within the five NUTS II

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High-Resolution Climate Change Impact Analysis on Expected Future Water Availability in the Upper Jordan Catchment and the Middle East

Journal of Hydrometeorology ◽

10.1175/jhm-d-13-0153.1 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 15 (4) ◽

pp. 1517-1531 ◽

Cited By ~ 15

Author(s):

Gerhard Smiatek ◽

Harald Kunstmann ◽

Andreas Heckl

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

High Resolution ◽

Water Availability ◽

Impact Analysis ◽

River Flow ◽

Climate Model ◽

Mesoscale Model ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Full Range ◽

The Impact

Abstract The impact of climate change on the future water availability of the upper Jordan River (UJR) and its tributaries Dan, Snir, and Hermon located in the eastern Mediterranean is evaluated by a highly resolved distributed approach with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) run at 18.6- and 6.2-km resolution offline coupled with the Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM). The MM5 was driven with NCEP reanalysis for 1971–2000 and with Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3), GCM forcings for 1971–2099. Because only one regional–global climate model combination was applied, the results may not give the full range of possible future projections. To describe the Dan spring behavior, the hydrological model was extended by a bypass approach to allow the fast discharge components of the Snir to enter the Dan catchment. Simulation results for the period 1976–2000 reveal that the coupled system was able to reproduce the observed discharge rates in the partially karstic complex terrain to a reasonable extent with the high-resolution 6.2-km meteorological input only. The performed future climate simulations show steadily rising temperatures with 2.2 K above the 1976–2000 mean for the period 2031–60 and 3.5 K for the period 2070–99. Precipitation trends are insignificant until the middle of the century, although a decrease of approximately 12% is simulated. For the end of the century, a reduction in rainfall ranging between 10% and 35% can be expected. Discharge in the UJR is simulated to decrease by 12% until 2060 and by 26% until 2099, both related to the 1976–2000 mean. The discharge decrease is associated with a lower number of high river flow years.

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