scholarly journals Prediction model of seasonality in the construction industry based on the accidentality phenomenon

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bożena Hoła ◽  
Mariusz Topolski ◽  
Iwona Szer ◽  
Jacek Szer ◽  
Ewa Blazik-Borowa

AbstractThe construction industry is an economic sector that is characterized by seasonality. Seasonal factors affect the volume of production, which in turn affects the accident rate. The aim of the research presented in the article was to develop a model for predicting the number of people injured in occupational accidents in the construction industry. Based on the analysis of statistical data and previous studies, the occurrence of certain regularities of the accidentality phenomenon was found, namely the long-term trend over many years, as well as seasonality and cyclicality over the course of a year. The found regularities were the basis for the assumptions that were made for the construction of the model. A mathematical model was built in the non-linear regression dimension. The model was validated by comparing the results of prediction errors generated by the developed model with the results of prediction errors generated by other known models, such as ARIMA, SARIMA, linear and polynomial models, which take into account the seasonality of the phenomenon. The constructed model enables the number of people injured in accidents in the construction industry in selected months of future years to be predicted with high accuracy. The obtained results can be the basis for making appropriate decisions regarding preventive and prophylactic measures in the construction industry. Commonly known mathematical tools available in the STATISTICA package were used to solve the given task.

2018 ◽  
Vol 174 ◽  
pp. 04007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomasz Nowobilski ◽  
Irena Bagińska ◽  
Krzysztof Gawron

The article classifies Polish voivodeships into appropriate groups with a similar level of occupational safety in the construction industry. The basis for the adopted classification was statistical data published by the Central Statistical Office regarding population, employment in the construction industry, the value of construction production and the number of occupational accidents. The conducted research allowed a logical and correct, in terms of content, division of the Polish territory to be made, taking into account the aspect of occupational safety in the construction industry. Statistica software and cluster analysis were used to solve the problem.


2015 ◽  
Vol 61 (4) ◽  
pp. 19-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Hoła ◽  
M. Szóstak

The article presents an analysis and evaluation of the accident rate in selected European Union countries. On the basis of available statistical data, the analysis of accidents in various sectors of the European Union economy was carried out. Afterwards, a ranking of countries regarding accidents in the construction industry was developed. For the selected representative countries, analysis of changes in the indicators which characterize the accident rate during the period between 2008 and 2012 was carried out. Conclusions resulting from the conducted research were formulated.


Author(s):  
Albert E. Beaton ◽  
James R. Chromy
Keyword(s):  

Author(s):  
Ronen Mandelkern

This chapter analyzes the role Israeli economists have played as purveyors of pro-market economic ideas and political entrepreneurs of economic liberalization in Israel. Israeli economists were strongly committed to economic liberalism already in the 1950s, but they were lacking decisive political influence. Two mechanisms increased their power over policy. First, long-term institutional changes gradually eroded “political” decision-making mechanism and opened the way to greater involvement of professional economists. This long-term trend was joined and reinforced by economists’ institutional entrepreneurship at the height of the 1980s economic crisis, when they initiated changes of macroeconomic governance. These changes enhanced the political power of the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Israel and supported the institutionalization of neoliberalism in Israel.


2021 ◽  
Vol 38 (10) ◽  
pp. 1791-1802
Author(s):  
Peiyan Chen ◽  
Hui Yu ◽  
Kevin K. W. Cheung ◽  
Jiajie Xin ◽  
Yi Lu

AbstractA dataset entitled “A potential risk index dataset for landfalling tropical cyclones over the Chinese mainland” (PRITC dataset V1.0) is described in this paper, as are some basic statistical analyses. Estimating the severity of the impacts of tropical cyclones (TCs) that make landfall on the Chinese mainland based on observations from 1401 meteorological stations was proposed in a previous study, including an index combining TC-induced precipitation and wind (IPWT) and further information, such as the corresponding category level (CAT_IPWT), an index of TC-induced wind (IWT), and an index of TC-induced precipitation (IPT). The current version of the dataset includes TCs that made landfall from 1949–2018; the dataset will be extended each year. Long-term trend analyses demonstrate that the severity of the TC impacts on the Chinese mainland have increased, as embodied by the annual mean IPWT values, and increases in TCinduced precipitation are the main contributor to this increase. TC Winnie (1997) and TC Bilis (2006) were the two TCs with the highest IPWT and IPT values, respectively. The PRITC V1.0 dataset was developed based on the China Meteorological Administration’s tropical cyclone database and can serve as a bridge between TC hazards and their social and economic impacts.


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