After the dissolution of the socialist Yugoslavia (SFRY) in 1991, the quality
and availability of demographic and migration statistics in the region as a
whole, and especially in some of its parts are deteriorated. In addition,
census rounds are not being held regularly throughout the region as of 1991.
Thus, producing population projections has become rather challenging in
comparison to the period of SFRY. This paper made an effort in order to
overcome obstacles in terms of historic data and jump-off projection values
for the whole region in accordance with adjusted data from national records.
Until 1991, population of the region had been increasing almost linearly.
Although SFRY was characterized by significant sub-regional differences in
terms of the beginning and the pace of demographic transition, the current
total fertility rate throughout the region is below 2.1. The aim of the paper
is to consider the long-term implications of low fertility and whether in
this respect there would be a demographic homogenization of the region. For
that purpose, we relied on the UN WPP2015 model used by the UN Population
Division for producing its 2015 World Population Prospects. It enabled
several important features from the viewpoint of the main tasks of the paper:
the methodologically consistent datasets on main demographic indicators,
probabilistic approach for modelling and forecasting fertility and mortality,
the opportunity to adjust initial datasets for known issues on data quality
(Serbia, Kosovo, Bosnia & Herzeg.), and ability to adjust data distribution
according to the former administrative division of SFRY. The last one was of
particular importance as it allowed us to take into account the well-known
diversity of fertility patterns in Serbia (Vojvodina, Central Serbia and
Kosovo), and to make a distinction in projection results between the
sub-regions differed by the onset and tempo of fertility transition. The UN
concept of post-transition recovery of total fertility rate is lying behind
the hypotheses of future TFR. According to the model, Slovenia and Vojvodina
has been already entered the post-transitional phase. Central Serbia and
Macedonia are first to join them (as of 2020), followed by Croatia and Bosnia
& Herzeg. (2025), and Montenegro (2030). However, the fertility transition in
Kosovo could last until 2070. The greatest chance (median distribution of the
simulated trajectories) is that TFR in the SFRY region will converge to the
levels projected for Southern Europe (1.8) in 2100, except in Slovenia
(1.89). Hypotheses on migration in deterministic manner were based on the
?migration cycle model? introduced by Fassmann and Reeger (2012), which
assume that all of Europe will eventually experience the transition to net
immigration. Since the strategic objectives of all governments in the region
are consistent when it comes to joining the EU, it is taken as a pivotal
condition for a hypothesis on the migration transition. The symbolic turning
point in the transition process in the region (2035) implies that the whole
region will become the part of the EU by then. Kosovo is assumed to be the
only territory not able to achieve the net immigration during The greatest
chances (median of the distribution) are that the population in the region of
SFRY will be reduced by 16.9% between 2015 and 2055, which puts this region
among the ones that are going to experience the strongest decrease (over 15%)
in global terms - mainly countries of the former Eastern bloc and Japan.
According to the median of prediction intervals, a sharp decline is expected
in Vojvodina (31.7%), Cent. Serbia (27.2 %), Bosnia & Herzeg. (22.0%), and
Croatia (18.9%), which is similar to the countries that were expected to
experience the greatest population decrease in the world by 2050 - Bulgaria,
Romania, Ukraine, and Moldova. The region reversal to the historic population
maximum of 1990 seems to be not possible even in conditions of the above
replacement fertility. A zone of depopulation emerged along the eastern rim
of the EU, which, according to the UN model, is the most prominent
depopulation zone in global terms. Prediction intervals indicate that by the
mid-century, with the exception of Kosovo, only Slovenia has some chances
(35%) to maintain the current population size. However, to return to its
maximum population by 2100 some chance has only Slovenia (almost 30%), and
only minimal Montenegro (8%), and Kosovo (5%). Old-age dependency ratio in
the SFRY region is likely to double by the mid-century, while the prediction
intervals suggest that even a return to the current unfavourable level is
outside of the range of possible outcomes throughout the region. It is the
most important long-term demographic implication of low fertility. Yet, that
rise has its limits. Therefore, the next four decades will be the most
challenging period of getting used to the new demographic reality, which in
view of the modern concept of population policy (quality before quantity) is
not necessarily bad. One of the conclusions is that the significant increase
in the total fertility rate, i.e. up to and around the replacement level of
2.1, which current official projections (Cent. Serbia, Vojvodina, Montenegro,
and Croatia) consider as the ultimate objective of population policy, is far
beyond the possible outcomes.
Overestimation of the adaptive substitution rate in fluctuating populations