scholarly journals Long-term effects of low fertility in the region of former Yugoslavia

Stanovnistvo ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 54 (2) ◽  
pp. 27-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir Nikitovic
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Population Policy ◽  
Fertility Transition ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Prediction Intervals ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Modern Concept ◽  
The Eu

After the dissolution of the socialist Yugoslavia (SFRY) in 1991, the quality and availability of demographic and migration statistics in the region as a whole, and especially in some of its parts are deteriorated. In addition, census rounds are not being held regularly throughout the region as of 1991. Thus, producing population projections has become rather challenging in comparison to the period of SFRY. This paper made an effort in order to overcome obstacles in terms of historic data and jump-off projection values for the whole region in accordance with adjusted data from national records. Until 1991, population of the region had been increasing almost linearly. Although SFRY was characterized by significant sub-regional differences in terms of the beginning and the pace of demographic transition, the current total fertility rate throughout the region is below 2.1. The aim of the paper is to consider the long-term implications of low fertility and whether in this respect there would be a demographic homogenization of the region. For that purpose, we relied on the UN WPP2015 model used by the UN Population Division for producing its 2015 World Population Prospects. It enabled several important features from the viewpoint of the main tasks of the paper: the methodologically consistent datasets on main demographic indicators, probabilistic approach for modelling and forecasting fertility and mortality, the opportunity to adjust initial datasets for known issues on data quality (Serbia, Kosovo, Bosnia & Herzeg.), and ability to adjust data distribution according to the former administrative division of SFRY. The last one was of particular importance as it allowed us to take into account the well-known diversity of fertility patterns in Serbia (Vojvodina, Central Serbia and Kosovo), and to make a distinction in projection results between the sub-regions differed by the onset and tempo of fertility transition. The UN concept of post-transition recovery of total fertility rate is lying behind the hypotheses of future TFR. According to the model, Slovenia and Vojvodina has been already entered the post-transitional phase. Central Serbia and Macedonia are first to join them (as of 2020), followed by Croatia and Bosnia & Herzeg. (2025), and Montenegro (2030). However, the fertility transition in Kosovo could last until 2070. The greatest chance (median distribution of the simulated trajectories) is that TFR in the SFRY region will converge to the levels projected for Southern Europe (1.8) in 2100, except in Slovenia (1.89). Hypotheses on migration in deterministic manner were based on the ?migration cycle model? introduced by Fassmann and Reeger (2012), which assume that all of Europe will eventually experience the transition to net immigration. Since the strategic objectives of all governments in the region are consistent when it comes to joining the EU, it is taken as a pivotal condition for a hypothesis on the migration transition. The symbolic turning point in the transition process in the region (2035) implies that the whole region will become the part of the EU by then. Kosovo is assumed to be the only territory not able to achieve the net immigration during The greatest chances (median of the distribution) are that the population in the region of SFRY will be reduced by 16.9% between 2015 and 2055, which puts this region among the ones that are going to experience the strongest decrease (over 15%) in global terms - mainly countries of the former Eastern bloc and Japan. According to the median of prediction intervals, a sharp decline is expected in Vojvodina (31.7%), Cent. Serbia (27.2 %), Bosnia & Herzeg. (22.0%), and Croatia (18.9%), which is similar to the countries that were expected to experience the greatest population decrease in the world by 2050 - Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, and Moldova. The region reversal to the historic population maximum of 1990 seems to be not possible even in conditions of the above replacement fertility. A zone of depopulation emerged along the eastern rim of the EU, which, according to the UN model, is the most prominent depopulation zone in global terms. Prediction intervals indicate that by the mid-century, with the exception of Kosovo, only Slovenia has some chances (35%) to maintain the current population size. However, to return to its maximum population by 2100 some chance has only Slovenia (almost 30%), and only minimal Montenegro (8%), and Kosovo (5%). Old-age dependency ratio in the SFRY region is likely to double by the mid-century, while the prediction intervals suggest that even a return to the current unfavourable level is outside of the range of possible outcomes throughout the region. It is the most important long-term demographic implication of low fertility. Yet, that rise has its limits. Therefore, the next four decades will be the most challenging period of getting used to the new demographic reality, which in view of the modern concept of population policy (quality before quantity) is not necessarily bad. One of the conclusions is that the significant increase in the total fertility rate, i.e. up to and around the replacement level of 2.1, which current official projections (Cent. Serbia, Vojvodina, Montenegro, and Croatia) consider as the ultimate objective of population policy, is far beyond the possible outcomes.

A New Look at the Asian Fertility Transition (Distinguishedl Lecture)

1996 ◽  
Vol 35 (4I) ◽  
pp. 385-398 ◽  
Author(s):  
John C. Caldwell
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Fertility Transition ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Asian Women ◽  
Population Replacement ◽  
Planning Meeting ◽  
Annual Birth Rate

The significance of the Asian fertility transition can hardly be overestimated. The relatively sanguine view of population growth expressed at the 1994 International Conference for Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo was possible only because of the demographic events in Asia over the last 30 years. In 1965 Asian women were still bearing about six children. Even at current rates, today’s young women will give birth to half as many. This measure, namely the average number of live births over a reproductive lifetime, is called the total fertility rate. It has to be above 2— considerably above if mortality is still high—to achieve long-term population replacement. By 1995 East Asia, taken as a whole, exhibited a total fertility rate of 1.9. Elsewhere, Singapore was below long-term replacement, Thailand had just achieved it, and Sri Lanka was only a little above. The role of Asia in the global fertility transition is shown by estimates I made a few years ago for a World Bank Planning Meeting covering the first quarter of a century of the Asian transition [Caldwell (1993), p. 300]. Between 1965 and 1988 the world’s annual birth rate fell by 22 percent. In 1988 there would have been 40 million more births if there had been no decline from 1965 fertility levels. Of that total decline in the world’s births, almost 80 percent had been contributed by Asia, compared with only 10 percent by Latin America, nothing by Africa, and, unexpectedly, 10 percent by the high-income countries of the West. Indeed, 60 percent of the decline was produced by two countries, China and India, even though they constitute only 38 percent of the world’s population. They accounted, between them, for over threequarters of Asia’s fall in births.

scholarly journals ANGKA KELAHIRAN DI INDONESIA Perkembangan Selama Dua Dasa Warsa Terakhir

Populasi ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sukamdi Sukamdi
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Population Policy ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Population Census ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Irian Jaya ◽  
Fast Decrease ◽  
Usual Concept ◽  
Year 2000

Using "own children method", the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Indonesia based on the 1990 Population Census is lower (3326) than as hadbeen expected. This has resulted in the fast decrease of fertility rate during the last decade. There is a tendency that the decrease of fertility rate in Indonesia is correlated negatively to fertility rate. The lower the fertility rate, the faster the decrease would become. It tends to be a deviation to the usual concept that correlation between fertility rate and its decrease is positive.'This maybe because the fertility rate of Indonesia is still higher than the optimum value.Based on the decreases occurred during the last two decades, it is estimated that Indonesia will soon reach a replacement level after the year 2000. It might be even sooner if the decline of the fertility rate during the period of 1980-1990was applied. Along with the increase of life expectancy, this will rapidly change the population structure.The total fertility rate varied among provinces. There are several provinces which have very low fertility rate and are estimated to continue until the year 2000. They are, for instance,Yogyakarta and Bali. However, there are also provinces having high fertility rates such as Southeast Sulawesi and Irian Jaya. This differentiation infertility rates should be noted in implementing the population policy.

scholarly journals Estimation of Fertility due to Contraception in Nepal

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 137-150
Author(s):  
Bijaya Mani Devkota
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Contraceptive Use ◽  
Population Policy ◽  
Unmet Need ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Background Characteristics ◽  
Unintended Pregnancies ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

  Fertility has an important role for demographic transition and total fertility rate (TFR) which is one component measurements of fertility. Absences of complete and reliable data, a large number of indirect techniques have been developed to estimate demographic parameters. Some of these techniques are based on stable population theory and others are regression equations between the dependent variables, the TFR and the independent variables, the socio economic as well as demographic variables. The unwanted or unintended pregnancies can be avoided through the use of contraceptives; it becomes very important to estimate the births averted or pregnancies stopped by use of contraception. Though there is increase in the use of contraception, still many couples do not use contraception in spite of the fact that they require to use contraception. To satisfy this unmet need of contraception is one of the policy targets of national population policy for population stabilization. In this study, 12862 married females between 15-49 years of age, whose marital duration is more than 5 years, have been taken to study the distribution on different background characteristics and their behavior. Firstly, a regression study was done to know the impact on contraceptive use and further multivariate study has been carried out to know the effect of background characteristics and behavior on absence of birth five years jointly at different sub division. This method is based on the relationship between the Total fertility rate (TFR) and contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR).By using this modified estimate of TFR, birth averted for different area. The variables are CPR that about 71.4 percent variation in TFR can be explained by the first regression approach. The second is based on the relationship between total fertility rate (TFR) and Additive combination of CPR and proportion of currently married females having open birth interval (NPV) explained about 82percent of the variation in TFR. The findings revealed that the TFR calculated by the present method are quite close to the observed values of the TFR. Estimates of births averted and the percent change in births in the absence of contraception, based on the two methods are fairly consistent.

Solving Low Fertility Rate with Technology?

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jung-ok Ha
Keyword(s):  
Population Policy ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Vitro Fertilization ◽  
National Crisis ◽  
Planning Project ◽  
Modern Family ◽  
National Family Planning ◽  
The Government

South Korea's total fertility rate (TFR) in 2005 was 1.08, the lowest in the world. The government launched the National Support Program for Infertile Couples (“the Program”) in 2006 which expenditures for diverse assisted reproductive treatments are subsidized. This chapter seeks to critique three aspects of the Program. First, the Program is a population policy that has not kept up with changes in family values and practices. Second, the Program’s very implementation has created demand, ‘those diagnosed as infertile’ have become ‘infertile members of the population’. Lastly, the Program has resulted in a meaningful increase in the number of in vitro fertilization treatments, and this increase has negatively impacted the health of women and children. Reproduction has always been a field for political struggle, and political imagination-created reproduction is revealed most strikingly when reproduction becomes a “population problem”. South Korea’s National Family Planning Project was brought by the Park Chung-hee government, which emphasized the value of the “modern family,” specifically, “Modernization of the Fatherland,” as part of economic development in the 1970s. The low fertility rate that South Korea is now facing is considered a national crisis and the Program represents the government’s will to solve the crisis through medical technologies. However, the bodies of women are still considered objects in TFR statistics, much as they were in the 1970s. This has led to a situation in which the health and even the lives of women are being endangered once again

scholarly journals Demographic forecasting of population projection in Greece: A Bayesian probabilistic study

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (Supplement_4) ◽  
Author(s):  
D Lamnisos ◽  
K Giannakou ◽  
T Siligari
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Replacement Level ◽  
Demographic Aging ◽  
The Social ◽  
Support Ratio

Abstract Background Demographic aging is an emerging issue in Greece, characterized by low fertility and increased life expectancy. Undoubtedly, demographic aging is a challenge for public health not only due to the financing of public pensions, but also for the increasing utilization of health care. Methods The total fertility rate and life expectancy at birth are projected probabilistically using Bayesian hierarchical models and United Nations population data for Greece from the period of 1950 to 2015. These are then converted to age-specific mortality rates and combined with a cohort component projection model. This yields probabilistic projections of total population by sex and age groups, total fertility rate (TFR), female and male life expectancies at birth and potential support ratio PSR (persons aged 20-64 per person 65+) by the year 2100. Results The total population in Greece in 1950 was around 7.5 million, increasing to 11 million based on the 2011 population census but is projected to decline to 7.5 million at 2100. TFR has followed a strong downward trend with 1.4 children per woman in 2005-2010 and is projected to have a slight increase to 1.6 and 1.8 children per woman for 2050 and 2100 with all values being below the replacement-level fertility. Life expectancy is expected to increase to 84 years for men and 88 years for women in 2050, and 90 years for men and 94 years for women in 2100. PSR is expected to decline dramatically from 3 in 2011 to approximately 1.5 in 2050 and 2100. Conclusions Over the years, Greece has lost its youthful structure and has acquired the characteristics of an aging population, reflecting the population distribution of Western countries. Demographic aging is harmful for the economic growth, the social security system, the social assistance, and it is closely linked to national defense and public health. A long-term multidimensional program is recommended to confront the demographic issue based on the previous international experience. Key messages Total fertility rate will be below replacement level and potential support ratio will decline dramatically. A long-term multidimensional program needs to be developed to address the demographic aging.

scholarly journals China’s Population Policy at the Crossroads: Social Impacts and Prospects

2013 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 193-218 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quanbao Jiang ◽  
Quanbao Jiang ◽  
Shuzhuo Li ◽  
Quanbao Jiang ◽  
Shuzhuo Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ethical Issues ◽  
Population Policy ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Replacement Level ◽  
Counter Measures ◽  
History Of ◽  
Biased Sex Ratio ◽  
Three Stages

Abstract China’s total fertility rate fell below replacement level in the 1990s. From the 1970s the fertility rate declined dramatically, mainly as a consequence of the national population policy whose aim has been to limit birth numbers, control population growth and boost economic growth. Having achieved such a low fertility rate, how will China’s population policy evolve in the future? This paper first reviews the history of China’s population policy since 1970 in three stages: 1970–1979; 1980–1999; and after 2000. We explore the impacts of China’s population policy, including relief of pressure on China’s environment and resources, fertility decline, the unexpectedly high male-biased sex ratio at birth (SRB), the coming shortage of labour force, and the rapid aging of the population, and extinction of racial and cultural diversity. We also investigate ethical issues raised by the implementation of the policy and its results. Finally we introduce the controversy over potential adjustment of the policy, acknowledging the problems faced by western countries with low fertility and the counter-measures they have taken. We offer some suggestions that might be appropriate in the Chinese context.

scholarly journals An Indirect Method to Estimate Total Fertility Rate on the Basis of the Moments of Age Distribution of Women in Reproductive age

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 296-314
Author(s):  
Brijesh P Singh ◽  
Sandeep Sing ◽  
Aalok Ranjan Chaurasia
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Fertility Transition ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Regression Method ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Reproductive Age ◽  
Indirect Methods ◽  
Population Stabilization ◽  
Simple Regression

Total fertility rate (TFR) is the universally used indicator to measure and monitor fertility transition and population stabilization. Calculation of TFR requires data on births by age of woman. In the absence of these data, several indirect methods have been proposed to estimate TFR but their application is limited to specific period and place. This paper deduces a simple regression method for estimating TFR based on the current age distribution of women in reproductive age. The method can be used to estimate TFR at local level and for different sub-groups of the population.

Major Determinants of China's Fertility Transition

1989 ◽  
Vol 117 ◽  
pp. 1-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peng Xizhe
Keyword(s):  
Birth Control ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Fertility Transition ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Low Level ◽  
The Past ◽  
The 1960S

During the past four decades China has experienced a dramatic fertility transition. Her national total fertility rate (TFR) was approximately 5·8 in the mid 1950s and remained at this level until the end of the 1960s. Since the early 1970s fertility transition has accelerated. The national TFR declined from 5·7 in 1970 to 3·6 in 1975, and down further to 2·31 in 1980. In other words, China’s fertility decreased by more than 50 per cent in only one decade. More recently, China’s fertility rose slightly, due mainly to a relaxation of birth control measures and a large marriage boom. Nevertheless, China’s fertility remains at a low level.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document