Tackling Coronavirus Disease 2019 by Nonpharmaceutical Interventions

2022 ◽  
pp. 97-107
Author(s):  
Sanmitra Ghosh ◽  
Saptarshi Chatterjee ◽  
Shatarupa Biswas ◽  
Megha Dutta
Keyword(s):  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions

scholarly journals A Strong Seasonality Pattern for Covid-19 Incidence Rates Modulated by UV Radiation Levels

Viruses ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 574
Author(s):  
Christos Karapiperis ◽  
Panos Kouklis ◽  
Stelios Papastratos ◽  
Anastasia Chasapi ◽  
Antoine Danchin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Uv Radiation ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Personal Hygiene ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Strong Seasonality

The Covid-19 pandemic has required nonpharmaceutical interventions, primarily physical distancing, personal hygiene and face mask use, to limit community transmission, irrespective of seasons. In fact, the seasonality attributes of this pandemic remain one of its biggest unknowns. Early studies based on past experience from respiratory diseases focused on temperature or humidity, with disappointing results. Our hypothesis that ultraviolet (UV) radiation levels might be a factor and a more appropriate parameter has emerged as an alternative to assess seasonality and exploit it for public health policies. Using geographical, socioeconomic and epidemiological criteria, we selected twelve North-equatorial-South countries with similar characteristics. We then obtained UV levels, mobility and Covid-19 daily incidence rates for nearly the entire 2020. Using machine learning, we demonstrated that UV radiation strongly associated with incidence rates, more so than mobility did, indicating that UV is a key seasonality indicator for Covid-19, irrespective of the initial conditions of the epidemic. Our findings can inform the implementation of public health emergency measures, partly based on seasons in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as the pandemic unfolds into 2021.

scholarly journals Impact of the COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on influenza and other respiratory viral infections in New Zealand

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Q. Sue Huang ◽  
◽  
Tim Wood ◽  
Lauren Jelley ◽  
Tineke Jennings ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Pandemic Influenza ◽  
Viral Infections ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Respiratory Viral Infections ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractStringent nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as lockdowns and border closures are not currently recommended for pandemic influenza control. New Zealand used these NPIs to eliminate coronavirus disease 2019 during its first wave. Using multiple surveillance systems, we observed a parallel and unprecedented reduction of influenza and other respiratory viral infections in 2020. This finding supports the use of these NPIs for controlling pandemic influenza and other severe respiratory viral threats.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Pandemic Response Simulation in a Large City: Impact of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on Reopening Society

2021 ◽  
pp. 0272989X2110030
Author(s):  
Serin Lee ◽  
Zelda B. Zabinsky ◽  
Judith N. Wasserheit ◽  
Stephen M. Kofsky ◽  
Shan Liu
Keyword(s):  
Large City ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
School Closure ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Variable Compliance ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions

As the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues to expand, policymakers are striving to balance the combinations of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to keep people safe and minimize social disruptions. We developed and calibrated an agent-based simulation to model COVID-19 outbreaks in the greater Seattle area. The model simulated NPIs, including social distancing, face mask use, school closure, testing, and contact tracing with variable compliance and effectiveness to identify optimal NPI combinations that can control the spread of the virus in a large urban area. Results highlight the importance of at least 75% face mask use to relax social distancing and school closure measures while keeping infections low. It is important to relax NPIs cautiously during vaccine rollout in 2021.

A Control Approach to Guide Nonpharmaceutical Interventions in the Treatment of COVID-19 Disease Using a SEIHRD Dynamical Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 323-346
Author(s):  
Fernando Pazos ◽  
◽  
Flavia E. Felicioni ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Control Law ◽  
Parametric Uncertainties ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Control Approach ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Optimal Intensity ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions

The recent worldwide epidemic of COVID-19 disease, for which there are no medications to cure it and the vaccination is still at an early stage, led to the adoption of public health measures by governments and populations in most of the affected countries to avoid the contagion and its spread. These measures are known as nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), and their implementation clearly produces social unrest as well as greatly affects the economy. Frequently, NPIs are implemented with an intensity quantified in an ad hoc manner. Control theory offers a worthwhile tool for determining the optimal intensity of the NPIs in order to avoid the collapse of the healthcare system while keeping them as low as possible, yielding concrete guidance to policymakers. A simple controller, which generates a control law that is easy to calculate and to implement is proposed. This controller is robust to large parametric uncertainties in the model used and to some level of noncompliance with the NPIs.

scholarly journals Modeling COVID-19 Nonpharmaceutical Interventions: Exploring periodic NPI strategies

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raffaele Vardavas ◽  
Pedro Nascimento de Lima ◽  
Lawrence Baker
Keyword(s):  
Health Outcomes ◽  
Interdisciplinary Approach ◽  
Decision Support Tool ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Quantitative Modeling ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Web Based ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractWe developed a COVID-19 transmission model used as part of RAND’s web-based COVID-19 decision support tool that compares the effects of nonpharmaceutical public health interventions (NPIs) on health and economic outcomes. An interdisciplinary approach informed the selection and use of multiple NPIs, combining quantitative modeling of the health/economic impacts of interventions with qualitative assessments of other important considerations (e.g., cost, ease of implementation, equity). This paper provides further details of our model, describes extensions, presents sensitivity analyses, and analyzes strategies that periodically switch between a base NPI level and a higher NPI level. We find that a periodic strategy, if implemented with perfect compliance, could have produced similar health outcomes as static strategies but might have produced better outcomes when considering other measures of social welfare. Our findings suggest that there are opportunities to shape the tradeoffs between economic and health outcomes by carefully evaluating a more comprehensive range of reopening policies.

scholarly journals Relationship Between COVID-19 Infection and Risk Perception, Knowledge, Attitude, and Four Nonpharmaceutical Interventions During the Late Period of the COVID-19 Epidemic in China: Online Cross-Sectional Survey of 8158 Adults (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hong Xu ◽  
Yong Gan ◽  
Daikun Zheng ◽  
Bo Wu ◽  
Xian Zhu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Risk Perception ◽  
Positive Attitude ◽  
The Other ◽  
Protective Measure ◽  
Risk Of Infection ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Public Risk ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Reduced Risk

BACKGROUND So far, there have been no published population studies on the relationship between a COVID-19 infection and public risk perception, information source, knowledge, attitude, and behaviors during the COVID-19 outbreak in China. OBJECTIVE This study aims to understand the relationships between COVID-19 infection; four personal nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs; handwashing, proper coughing habits, social distancing, and mask wearing); and public risk perception, knowledge, attitude, and other social demographic variables. METHODS An online survey of 8158 Chinese adults between February 22 and March 5, 2020, was conducted. Bivariate associations between categorical variables were examined using Fisher exact test. We also explored the determinants of four NPIs as well as their association with COVID-19 infection using logistic regression. RESULTS Of 8158 adults included, 57 (0.73%) were infected with COVID-19. The overwhelming majority of respondents showed a positive attitude (n=8094, 99.2%), positive risk perception (n=8146, 99.9%), and high knowledge levels that were among the strongest predictors of the four adopted NPIs (handwashing: n=7895, 96.8%; proper coughing: 5997/6444, 93.1%; social distancing: n=7104/8158, 87.1%; and mask wearing: 5011/5120, 97.9%). There was an increased risk of COVID-19 infection for those who did not wash their hands (2.28% vs 0.65%; risk ratio [RR] 3.53, 95% CI 1.53-8.15; <i>P</i>=.009), did not practice proper coughing (1.79% vs 0.73%; RR 2.44, 95% CI 1.15-5.15; <i>P</i>=.03), did not practice social distancing (1.52% vs 0.58%; RR 2.63, 95% CI 1.48-4.67; <i>P</i>=.002), and did not wear a mask (7.41% vs 0.6%; RR 12.38, 95% CI 5.81-26.36; <i>P</i>&lt;.001). For those who did practice all other three NPIs, wearing a mask was associated with a significantly reduced risk of infection compared to those who did not wear a mask (0.6% vs 16.7%; <i>P</i>=.04). Similarly, for those who did not practice all or part of the other three NPIs, wearing a mask was also associated with a significantly reduced risk of infection. In a penalized logistic regression model including all four NPIs, wearing a mask was the only significant predictor of COVID-19 infection among the four NPIs (odds ratio 7.20, 95% CI 2.24-23.11; <i>P</i>&lt;.001). CONCLUSIONS We found high levels of risk perception, positive attitude, desirable knowledge, as well as a high level of adopting the four NPIs. The relevant knowledge, risk perception, and attitude were strong predictors of adapting the four NPIs. Mask wearing, among the four personal NPIs, was the most effective protective measure against COVID-19 infection, with added preventive effect among those who practiced all or part of the other three NPIs.

scholarly journals Durability analysis of the highly effective BNT162b2 vaccine against COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arjun Puranik ◽  
Patrick J. Lenehan ◽  
John C. O’Horo ◽  
Michiel J.M. Niesen ◽  
Abinash Virk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Conditional Logistic Regression ◽  
Severe Disease ◽  
Negative Control ◽  
Calendar Time ◽  
Symptomatic Infection ◽  
National Medical ◽  
Early Signal ◽  
Durability Analysis ◽  
Negative Case ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractSARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections have been increasingly reported in fully vaccinated individuals. We conducted a test-negative case-control study to assess the durability of protection after full vaccination with BNT162b2, defined as 14 days after the second dose, against polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-confirmed symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, in a national medical practice between February 1, 2021 and August 22, 2021. We fit conditional logistic regression (CLR) models stratified on residential county and calendar time of testing to assess the association between time elapsed since vaccination and the odds of symptomatic infection or non-COVID-19 hospitalization (negative control), adjusted for several covariates. The primary population included 652 individuals who had a positive symptomatic test after full vaccination with BNT162b2 (cases) and 5,946 individuals with at least one negative symptomatic test after full vaccination (controls). The adjusted odds of symptomatic infection were higher 120 days after full vaccination versus at the date of full vaccination (Odds Ratio [OR]: 3.21, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.33-7.74). Importantly, the odds of infection were still lower 150 days after the first BNT162b2 dose as compared to 4 days after the first dose (OR: 0.3, 95% CI: 0.19-0.45), when immune protection approximates the unvaccinated status. Low rates of COVID-19 associated hospitalization or death in this cohort precluded analyses of these severe outcomes. The odds of experiencing a non-COVID-19 hospitalization decreased with time since vaccination, suggesting a possible underestimation of waning protection by this approach due to confounding factors. Taken together, these data constitute an early signal for waning protection against symptomatic illness while also providing reassurance that BNT162b2 continues to protect against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection several months after full vaccination. Continued surveillance of COVID-19 vaccine durability, particularly against severe disease, is critical to guide effective and equitable strategies to respond to the pandemic, including distribution of booster doses, development of new vaccines, and implementation of both pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical interventions.

Trust in scientists in times of pandemic: Panel evidence from 12 countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (40) ◽  
pp. e2108576118
Author(s):  
Yann Algan ◽  
Daniel Cohen ◽  
Eva Davoine ◽  
Martial Foucault ◽  
Stefanie Stantcheva
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Social Trust ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Individual Support ◽  
Compliant Behavior ◽  
Paradoxical Effects ◽  
The Government ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions

This article analyzes the specific and critical role of trust in scientists on both the support for and compliance with nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic. We exploit large-scale, longitudinal, and representative surveys for 12 countries over the period from March to December 2020, and we complement the analysis with experimental data. We find that trust in scientists is the key driving force behind individual support for and compliance with NPIs and for favorable attitudes toward vaccination. The effect of trust in government is more ambiguous and tends to diminish support for and compliance with NPIs in countries where the recommendations from scientists and the government were not aligned. Trust in others also has seemingly paradoxical effects: in countries where social trust is high, the support for NPIs is low due to higher expectations that others will voluntary social distance. Our individual-level longitudinal data also allows us to evaluate the effects of within-person changes in trust over the pandemic: we show that trust levels and, in particular, trust in scientists have changed dramatically for individuals and within countries, with important subsequent effects on compliant behavior and support for NPIs. Such findings point out the challenging but critical need to maintain trust in scientists during a lasting pandemic that strains citizens and governments.

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