Next-Generation Primary Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Tool. Are Nonmodifiable Risk Factors Relevant in the Equation?

2020 ◽  
Vol 137 ◽  
pp. 132-133
Author(s):  
Joseph Yeboah
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Prediction Tool ◽  
Next Generation ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk Prediction

scholarly journals Standardised measurement of coronary inflammation using cardiovascular CT: integration in clinical care as a prognostic medical device

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evangelos K Oikonomou ◽  
Alexios S Antonopoulos ◽  
David Schottlander ◽  
Mohammad Marwan ◽  
Chris Mathers ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Coronary Artery ◽  
Medical Device ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Clinical Care ◽  
Clinical Risk Factors ◽  
Clinical Risk ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk Prediction ◽  
Perivascular Fat

Abstract Aims Coronary CT angiography (CCTA) is a first-line modality in the investigation of suspected coronary artery disease (CAD). Mapping of perivascular Fat Attenuation Index (FAI) on routine CCTA enables the non-invasive detection of coronary artery inflammation by quantifying spatial changes in perivascular fat composition. We now report the performance of a new medical device, CaRi-Heart®, which integrates standardised FAI mapping together with clinical risk factors and plaque metrics to provide individualised cardiovascular risk prediction. Methods and Results The study included 3912 consecutive patients undergoing CCTA as part of clinical care in the United States (n = 2040) and Europe (n = 1872). These cohorts were used to generate age-specific nomograms and percentile curves as reference maps for the standardised interpretation of FAI. The first output of CaRi-Heart® is the FAI-Score of each coronary artery, which provides a measure of coronary inflammation adjusted for technical, biological and anatomical characteristics. FAI-Score is then incorporated into a risk prediction algorithm together with clinical risk factors and CCTA-derived coronary plaque metrics to generate the CaRi-Heart® Risk that predicts the likelihood of a fatal cardiac event at 8 years. CaRi-Heart® Risk was trained in the US population and its performance was validated externally in the European population. It improved risk discrimination over a clinical risk factor-based model (Δ[C-statistic] of 0.085, P = 0.01 in the US Cohort and 0.149, P < 0.001 in the European cohort) and had a consistent net clinical benefit on decision curve analysis above a baseline traditional risk factor-based model across the spectrum of cardiac risk. Conclusion CaRi-Heart® reliably improves cardiovascular risk prediction by incorporating traditional cardiovascular risk factors along with comprehensive CCTA coronary plaque and perivascular adipose tissue phenotyping. This integration advances the prognostic utility of CCTA for individual patients and paves the way for its use as a screening tool among patients referred for CCTA. Translational Perspective Mapping of perivascular Fat Attenuation Index (FAI) on coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) enables the non-invasive detection of coronary artery inflammation by quantifying spatial changes in perivascular fat composition. We now report the performance of a new medical device, CaRi-Heart®, which integrates standardised FAI mapping together with clinical risk factors and plaque metrics to provide age-standardised reference maps and individualised cardiovascular risk prediction. This integration advances the prognostic value of CCTA and paves the way for its use as a screening tool among patients referred for CCTA.

scholarly journals Does coronary calcium scoring adds value to cardiovascular risk prediction in asymptomatic population?

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
M Serrao ◽  
M Temtem ◽  
A Pereira ◽  
J Monteiro ◽  
M Santos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Coronary Heart Disease ◽  
Heart Disease ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Risk Stratification ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Cardiovascular Events ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk Prediction ◽  
Traditional Risk Factors ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Despite being a controversial subject, multiple guidelines mention the use of Coronary Artery Calcification (CAC) scoring in the cardiovascular risk prediction, in asymptomatic population. The inclusion of CAC scoring in traditional risk models may help in decision-make providing better cardiovascular risk stratification. Purpose The aim of our study is to estimate the impact of CAC scoring in cardiovascular events risk prediction in a model based on traditional risk factors (TRFs). Methods and results The study consisted of 1052 asymptomatic individuals free of known coronary heart disease, enrolled from GENEMACOR study and referred for computed tomography for the CAC scoring assessment. A cohort of 952 was followed for a mean of 5.2±3.2 years for the primary endpoint of all-cause of cardiovascular events. The following traditional risk factors were considered: (1) current cigarette smoking, (2) dyslipidemia, (3) diabetes mellitus, (4) hypertension and (5) family history of coronary heart disease. Among this population, the extent of CAC differs significantly between men and women in the same age group. Therefore, the distribution of CAC score by age and gender was done by using the Hoff's nomogram (a). According to this nomogram, 3 categories were created: low CAC (0≤CAC<100 and P<50); moderate CAC (100≤CAC<400 or P50–75) and high CAC (CAC≥400 or P>75). Two Cox regression models were created, the first only with TRFs and the second adding the CAC severity categories. When including CAC categories to the TRFs, the higher severity level presented a significant risk of MACE occurrence with an HR of 4.39 (95% CI 1.83–10.52; p=0.001). Conclusion Our results point to the importance of the inclusion of CAC in both primary and secondary prevention to an improved risk stratification. Larger prospective multicentre cohorts with longer follow-up should reproduce and validate these findings. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

Abstract P195: The Relative Contribution of Systolic Blood Pressure in Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Declines

Circulation ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 135 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanne Rospleszcz ◽  
Barbara Thorand ◽  
Tonia de las Heras Gala ◽  
Christa Meisinger ◽  
Rolf Holle ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Blood Pressure ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Performance Measures ◽  
Population Attributable Risk ◽  
Attributable Risk ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk Prediction

Background: The Framingham Risk Score (FRS) is an established tool for the prediction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. The established CVD risk factors age, HDL cholesterol, total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure (SBP), antihypertensive treatment, diabetes mellitus and smoking are used in the calculation of the FRS. The prevalence and distribution of these risk factors in the population have changed within the last decades and especially average levels of SBP have declined. However, the impact of this change on the risk prediction performance of the FRS has not been investigated. Hypothesis: We assessed the hypothesis that the relative contribution of SBP to CVD risk prediction within the FRS framework has changed from 1985 to 2000. Methods: We used N = 11 760 participants aged 30 - 65 years from four prospective population-based cohort studies enrolled in Southern Germany in 1985, 1990, 1995, and 2000. CVD risk was calculated by recalibrated equations of the original FRS. Predicted CVD risks using the actual SBP values were compared to predicted CVD risks using optimal (SBP < 120 mmHg) values for each participant. We assessed the relative contribution of SBP with three performance measures: First, the median difference in predicted risks with actual and optimal SBP, second, the relative positive predictive value of the FRS using actual compared to optimal SBP values and third, the population attributable risk fraction of SBP using Levin’s formula. Results: CVD events occurred in 6.3% of male participants in 1985 and 6.2% in 2000; in women, event rates were 2.4% and 2.3%, respectively. Mean SBP levels decreased from 134 mmHg (Standard Deviation: 17 mmHg) to 132 (SD: 17) mmHg in men and from 127 (SD: 19) mmHg to 121 (SD: 18) mmHg in women. The difference in median predicted risk declined from 1.21 [Interquartile range 0.52, 3.38] in 1985 to 0.93 [0.35, 2.44] in 2000 in men and from 0.26 [-0.05, 1.45] to -0.07 [-0.19, 0.89] in women. The relative positive predictive value dropped from 0.88 to 0.73 in men and from 0.61 to 0.53 in women. The population attributable risk fraction of SBP decreased from 70.2% (95% CI: 42.1, 89.6) to 29.71% (-6.4, 64.7) in men and from 85.7% (62.9, 93.1) to 57.9% (28.0, 82.0) in women. Given the results from 1990 and 1995, the declining trend was nonlinear for all three performance measures. Conclusion: In conclusion, the relative contribution of blood pressure to cardiovascular risk prediction has decreased within the last decades. This affects the future development of CVD risk prediction methods which will have to consider the changing relative importance of SBP. Furthermore, this might also influence public health policies focusing on the management of SBP and hypertension in order to effectively prevent CVD.

scholarly journals In-vivo-validation of a cardiovascular risk prediction tool: the arriba-pro study

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Annette Diener ◽  
Salomé Celemín-Heinrich ◽  
Karl Wegscheider ◽  
Kai Kolpatzik ◽  
Katrin Tomaschko ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Prediction Tool ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk Prediction ◽  
In Vivo Validation

Significant interactions between traditional risk factors affect cardiovascular risk prediction in healthy general population

2014 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-60 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jussi A. Hernesniemi ◽  
Juho Tynkkynen ◽  
Aki S. Havulinna ◽  
Niku Oksala ◽  
Erkki Vartiainen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
General Population ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk Prediction ◽  
Traditional Risk Factors

What is the role of non-invasive measurements of atherosclerosis in individual cardiovascular risk prediction?

2007 ◽  
Vol 112 (10) ◽  
pp. 507-516 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ewoud ter Avest ◽  
Anton F. H. Stalenhoef ◽  
Jacqueline de Graaf
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Pulse Wave ◽  
Imaging Techniques ◽  
Non Invasive ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk Prediction

Primary prevention of CVD (cardiovascular disease) is mainly based on the assessment of individual cardiovascular risk factors. However, often, only the most important (conventional) cardiovascular risk factors are determined, and every level of risk factor exposure is associated with a substantial variation in the amount of atherosclerosis. Measuring the effect of risk factor exposure over time directly in the vessel might (partially) overcome these shortcomings. Several non-invasive imaging techniques have the potential to accomplish this, each of these techniques focusing on a different stage of the atherosclerotic process. In this review, we aim to define the current role of various of these non-invasive measurements of atherosclerosis in individual cardiovascular risk prediction, taking into account the most recent insights about validity and reproducibility of these techniques and the results of recent prospective outcome trials. We conclude that, although the clinical application of FMD (flow-mediated dilation) and PWA (pulse wave analysis) in individual cardiovascular risk prediction seems far away, there may be a role for PWV (pulse wave velocity) and IMT (intima-media thickness) measurements in the near future.

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