Economic indicators of hydrologic drought insurance under water demand and climate change scenarios in a Brazilian context

2017 ◽  
Vol 140 ◽  
pp. 66-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guilherme Samprogna Mohor ◽  
Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Hydrologic Drought ◽  
Drought Insurance

scholarly journals Impactos das mudanças climáticas na demanda hídrica e duração do ciclo do sorgo forrageiro e feijão-caupi no estado de Pernambuco

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 542
Author(s):  
José Edson Florentino de Morais ◽  
Thieres George Freire da Silva ◽  
Marcela Lúcia Barbosa ◽  
Wellington Jairo da Silva Diniz ◽  
Carlos André Alves de Souza ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Stomatal Resistance ◽  
The State ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Forage Sorghum

O aumento na ocorrência de eventos climáticos extremos nas últimas décadas é uma forte evidência das mudanças climáticas. Em regiões Semiáridas, onde a pressão de desertificação tem se intensificado, são esperadas diminuição da disponibilidade de água e maior ocorrência de períodos seca, e, consequentemente, efeitos na resposta fisiológica das plantas. Assim, objetivou-se analisar os impactos dos cenários de mudanças climáticas sobre a duração do ciclo fenológico e a demanda de água do sorgo forrageiro e do feijão-caupi cultivados no Estado de Pernambuco. Foram utilizados os valores mensais da normal climatológica brilho solar, temperatura do ar, umidade relativa do ar e velocidade do vento de dez municípios. Considerou-se um aumento de 1,8°C (Cenário B2) e 4,0°C (Cenário A1F1) na temperatura do ar e um decréscimo de 5,0% dos valores absolutos de umidade relativa do ar, além do aumento de 22% na resistência estomática e de 4% no índice de área foliar. Com base nessas informações foram gerados três cenários: situação atual e projeções futuras para B2 e A1F1. Os resultados revelaram uma redução média de 11% (B2) e 20% (A1F1), e de 10% (B2) e 17% (A1F1) na duração do ciclo, e de 4% (B2) e 8% (A1F1), e 2% (B2) e 5% (A1F1) na demanda de água acumulada para o sorgo forrageiro e feijão-caupi, respectivamente. Conclui-se que a magnitude das reduções da duração do ciclo e a demanda de água simulada para as culturas do sorgo forrageiro e do feijão-caupi variaram espaço-temporalmente no Estado de Pernambuco com os cenários de mudanças climáticas.ABSTRACT The increase in the occurrence of extreme weather events in recent decades is a strong evidence of climate change. In semiarid regions, where the pressure of desertification has intensified, are expected to decrease in the availability of water and higher occurrence of drought periods, and, consequently, effects on physiological response of plants. Thus, the objective of analyzing the impacts of climate change scenarios on the duration of phenological cycle and water demand of forage sorghum and cowpea, grown in the State of Pernambuco. Monthly values were used normal climatological solar brightness, air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed of ten municipalities. It was considered an increase of 1.8° C (B2 Scenario) and 4.0° C (A1F1 Scenario) on air temperature and a decrease of 5.0% of the absolute values of relative humidity, in addition to the 22% increase in stomatal resistance and 4% in leaf area index. Based on this information were generated three scenarios: current situation and future projections for B2, A1F1. The results revealed an average reduction of 11% (B2) and 20% (A1F1), and 10% (B2) and 17% (A1F1) for the duration of the cycle, and 4% (B2) and 8% (A1F1), and 2% (B2) and 5% (A1F1) in accumulated water demand for forage sorghum and cowpea, respectively. It is concluded that the magnitude of the reductions in the duration of the cycle and the simulated water demand for crops of forage sorghum and cowpea ranged space-temporarily in the State of Pernambuco with climate change scenarios.

Ecosystem Services Demand Management Under Climate Change Scenarios

2019 ◽  
pp. 45-65
Author(s):  
Abdelkrim Ben Salem ◽  
Souad Ben Salem ◽  
Mohammed Khebiza Yacoubi ◽  
Mohammed Messouli
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Demand Management ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Water Ecosystem ◽  
Storage Volume ◽  
Groundwater Reserves ◽  
Water Evaluation And Planning

Water ecosystem service is the most important element that supports Tafilalet agro-ecosystems. In this region, drought frequency is increasing, which complicate the management groundwater reserves. The ephemeral flows of the rivers force people to use groundwater to meet the population demand. Consequently, water resource management is of significant importance the sustainability of this area. Water evaluation and planning (WEAP) is useful management software used to evaluate and trace the trend of water demand. This model was applied in case of Ziz basin in order to simulate and analyze the situation of water under different scenarios. The results show an increasing of demand for water irrigation and with introducing modern irrigation scenario. However, a decreasing trend in reservoir storage volume and groundwater storage was projected in Tafilalet.

A multi-risk assessment of water scarcity in the south-eastern Italian Alps using a System Dynamics approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Terzi ◽  
Janez Sušnik ◽  
Sara Masia ◽  
Silvia Torresan ◽  
Stefan Schneiderbauer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
High Water ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Multiple Impacts ◽  
Dam Reservoirs

<p>Mountain regions are facing multiple impacts due to climate change and anthropogenic activities. Shifts in precipitation and temperature are affecting the available water influencing a variety of economic activities that still rely on large quantities of water (e.g. ski tourism, energy production and agriculture). The Alps are among those areas where recent events of decreased water availability triggered emerging water disputes and spread of economic impacts across multiple sectors and from upstream high water availability areas to downstream high water demand areas. In order to make our water management systems more resilient, there is a need to unravel the interplays and dependencies that can lead to multiple impacts across multiple sectors. However, current assessments dealing with climate change usually account for a mono sectoral and single risk perspective.</p><p>This study hence shows an integrative assessment of multi-risk processes across strategic sectors of the Alpine economy. System dynamics modelling (SDM) is applied as a powerful tool to evaluate the multiple impacts stemming from interactions and feedbacks among water-food-energy economic sectors of the Noce river catchment in the Province of Trento (Italy).</p><p>The SDM developed for the Noce catchment combined outputs from physically based models to evaluate water availability and statistical assessments for water demands from three main sectors: (i) apple orchards cultivation, (ii) water releases from large dam reservoirs for hydropower production and (iii) domestic and seasonal tourism activities.</p><p>Hydrological results have been validated on historical time series (i.e. 2009-2017) and projected in the future considering RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios for 2021-2050 medium term and 2041-2070 long term. Results show a precipitation decrease affecting river streamflow with consequences on water stored and turbined in all dam reservoirs of the Noce catchment, especially for long-term climate change scenarios. Moreover, temperature scenarios will increase the amount of water used for agricultural irrigation from upstream to downstream. Nevertheless, decreasing population projections will have a beneficial reduction of water demand from residents, counterbalancing the increasing demand from the other sectors.</p><p>Finally, the integrated SDM fostered discussions in the Noce catchment on interplays between climate change and anthropogenic activities to tackle climate-related water scarcity.</p>

Present and future water security under socioeconomic and climate changes in the Vilcanota-Urubamba basin

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andres Goyburo ◽  
Pedro Rau ◽  
Waldo Lavado ◽  
Fabian Drenkhan ◽  
Wouter Buytaert
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Water Security ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Glacier Melt ◽  
Current Water ◽  
The Impact

<p>This research assesses present (2009-2016) and future (until 2100) levels of water security taking into consideration socioeconomic and climate change scenarios using the WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning) tool for semidistributed hydrological modeling. The study area covers the  Vilcanota-Urubamba basin in the southern Peruvian Andes and presents a complex water demand context as a glacier-fed system.</p><p>Current total water demand is estimated in 5.12E+9 m3/year and includes agriculture (6674.17 m3/year), domestic (7.79E+07m3/year), industrial (1.01E+06 m3/year) and energy (5.03e+9 m3/year) consumption. For assessing the current water supply, observed flow data is used to simulate and validate the model (also accounting for glacier melt contribution). The analysis of unmet water demand for the period 2016–2100 was computed using the soil moisture scheme of the WEAP model, which simulates the hydrological cycle and generates future scenarios for water demand. Different scenarios were generated for external driving factors (population growth and increasing agriculture area) and the impact of climate change to evaluate their effect on the current water supply system. </p><p>These results will allow for the first time to evaluate the impact of changes in glacier melt contributions on water security taking into account also changes in water demand.</p><p>This study also further explores the importance of incorporating science and policy within a broader study of water security. As a result, it is expected to deliver high spatial resolution water demand maps and adaptation strategies for stakeholders. This research is part of the RAHU project as a new multidisciplinary collaboration between UK and Peruvian scientists.</p>

Ecosystem Services Demand Management Under Climate Change Scenarios

2022 ◽  
pp. 1944-1964
Author(s):  
Abdelkrim Ben Salem ◽  
Souad Ben Salem ◽  
Mohammed Khebiza Yacoubi ◽  
Mohammed Messouli
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Demand Management ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Water Ecosystem ◽  
Storage Volume ◽  
Groundwater Reserves ◽  
Water Evaluation And Planning

Water ecosystem service is the most important element that supports Tafilalet agro-ecosystems. In this region, drought frequency is increasing, which complicate the management groundwater reserves. The ephemeral flows of the rivers force people to use groundwater to meet the population demand. Consequently, water resource management is of significant importance the sustainability of this area. Water evaluation and planning (WEAP) is useful management software used to evaluate and trace the trend of water demand. This model was applied in case of Ziz basin in order to simulate and analyze the situation of water under different scenarios. The results show an increasing of demand for water irrigation and with introducing modern irrigation scenario. However, a decreasing trend in reservoir storage volume and groundwater storage was projected in Tafilalet.

Modeling the impacts of increase in temperature on irrigation water requirements in Palakkad district: a case study in humid tropical Kerala

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 472-485 ◽  
Author(s):  
U. Surendran ◽  
C. M. Sushanth ◽  
George Mammen ◽  
E. J. Joseph
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Wide Spectrum ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Water Requirement ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ecological Zones ◽  
Irrigation Water Demand

Rise in temperature is one of the predicted impacts of climate change with significant implications on water resources management. An attempt has been made to calculate the water requirement of crops in different agro-ecological zones of Palakkad district in humid tropical Kerala using the CROPWAT 8.0 model. Sensitivity analysis was done for a simulated rise in temperature from 0.5 to 3.0 °C keeping other parameters the same. The analysis showed that the total crop water requirement of all the major crops, like coconut, paddy and banana, increased with rising temperature thereby increasing the simulated irrigation water demand. The gross water demand inclusive of irrigation, domestic and industries will be 1,496 Mm3. The simulated gross water demand for an increase in temperature of 0.5, 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0 °C will be 1,523, 1,791, 1,822 and 1,853 Mm3, respectively. The maximum utilizable water resource available in the district is only 1,579 Mm3 and better water management, focusing particularly on improving the irrigation efficiency, has to be adopted to cater for the demands of the user sectors under changing climate scenario. A wide spectrum of climate change scenarios is also discussed in the paper along with guidelines for the future management of water resources.

scholarly journals Water Availability–Demand Balance under Climate Change Scenarios in an Overpopulated Region of Mexico

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 1846
Author(s):  
Jessica Bravo-Cadena ◽  
Numa P. Pavón ◽  
Patricia Balvanera ◽  
Gerardo Sánchez-Rojas ◽  
Ramón Razo-Zarate
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Deficit ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Water Footprint ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

Climate change scenarios show that water availability could be decreasing in the near future, adding to the increasing problem of the growing water demands in socioeconomic sectors. The aim of this work was to generate a geographically explicit water balance concerning availability vs. demand in an overpopulated region of Mexico. Water balance and water deficit models were made for three periods of time: 1970–2000, and two future periods of time (2041–2060 and 2061–2080). Three global climate models were used in addition to two different climate scenarios from each (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) RCP 4.6 and RCP 8.5). Water demand for socioeconomic sectors was calculated through the water footprint. Water availability was 197,644.58 hm3/year, while that the water demand was 59,187 hm3/year. The socioeconomic sectors with the highest demand were domestic services (48%), agriculture (27%), livestock agriculture (20%), and timber production (5%). The highest water availability areas were not the same as those with the highest demand and vice versa. However, 39% of municipalities had a higher water demand than its availability. A significant reduction in water availability was identified, considering an interval of −15% to 40%. This variation depends on climate models, scenarios, and period of time. Areas with overpopulated cities in the region would have higher pressure on water availability. These results could be used in the implementation of public policies by focusing on adaptation strategies to reduce water deficit in the immediate future.

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