Lumped geohydrological modelling for long- term predictions of groundwater storage and depletion

2021 ◽  
pp. 127347
Author(s):  
Fahad Ejaz ◽  
Thomas Wöhling ◽  
Marvin Höge ◽  
Wolfgang Nowak
Keyword(s):  
Groundwater Storage

Long-term annual groundwater storage trends in Australian catchments

2014 ◽  
Vol 74 ◽  
pp. 156-165 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lu Zhang ◽  
Wilfried Brutsaert ◽  
Russell Crosbie ◽  
Nick Potter
Keyword(s):  
Groundwater Storage

Stress test modelling to assess catchment drought resistance and recovery

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Stoelzle ◽  
Jost Hellwig ◽  
Kerstin Stahl ◽  
Markus Weiler ◽  
Erik Tijdeman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Waves ◽  
Stress Test ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Drought Event ◽  
Model Structure ◽  
Stress Tests ◽  
Groundwater Storage ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Hydrogeological Characteristics

<p>Dry spells and heat waves control the frequency and duration of streamflow drought events. Groundwater storage and release in catchments can modulate their timing and severities in terms of deficit volume and persistence. To better understand the role of recharge and groundwater storage for catchment sensitivity to droughts we investigate the effect of recharge scenarios on streamflow drought characteristics and baseflow for 50 mesoscale catchments with different hydrogeological characteristics in southwestern Germany. In model experiments, we simulate daily recharge on a 1 km resolution with the water balance model TRAIN reflecting the most dominant soil-vegetation processes. Then we calibrate long-term reference simulations, fitting the outflow of different conceptual groundwater box models with varying model structure to hydrograph-separated baseflow. After calibration, we define probabilistic stress tests as scenarios of reduced pre-drought recharge. The tolerance of catchments to different drought intensities is analyzed based on the concepts of resistance, resilience, and recovery to drought situations. Results suggest that catchments with higher resistance and resilience are less sensitive to recharge stress, but recovery is often much slower. However, by comparing the events of e.g. 2003 and 2018 specifically, we show that the sensitivity is also a function of the intensity and duration of the stress test simulation, the drought event characteristics, and the storage memory of catchments. Additionally, the performance ranking of all groundwater models in each catchment allows to link the variability in model structure to catchment properties (e.g. geology). The analysis shows that catchments with short-term or long-term storage memory react differently under different stress tests. Stress test simulations may help to answer planning-relevant questions such as which preconditions make a drought intensification or prolongation more likely and how long does it take for the system to recover to the reference condition. Catchment-specific stress tests with historical worst-case pre-conditions before extreme drought events may thus be a way forward to constrain relevant timescales of drought management and drought early warning.</p>

scholarly journals A Climatic Perspective on the Impacts of Global Warming on Water Cycle of Cold Mountainous Catchments in the Tibetan Plateau: A Case Study in Yarlung Zangbo River Basin

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 2338
Author(s):  
Zhicheng Xu ◽  
Lei Cheng ◽  
Peng Luo ◽  
Pan Liu ◽  
Lu Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Flow Regimes ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Groundwater Storage ◽  
Annual Time Scale ◽  
Yarlung Zangbo River ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Annual Time

Global warming has a profound influence on global and regional water cycles, especially in the cold mountainous area. However, detecting and quantifying such changes are still difficult because noise and variability in observed streamflow are relatively larger than the long-term trends. In this study, the impacts of global warming on the catchment water cycles in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin (YZRB), one of most important catchments in south of the Tibetan Plateau, are quantified using a climatic approach based on the relationship between basin-scale groundwater storage and low flow at the annual time scale. By using a quantile regression method and flow recession analysis, changes in low flow regimes and basin-scale groundwater storage at the Nuxia hydrological station are quantified at the annual time scale during 1961–2000. Results show annual low flows (10th and 25th annual flows) of the YZRB have decreased significantly, while long-term annual precipitation, total streamflow, and high flows are statistically unchanged. Annual lowest seven-day flow shows a significantly downward trend (2.2 m3/s/a, p < 0.05) and its timing has advanced about 12 days (2.8 day/10a, p < 0.1) during the study period. Estimated annual basin-scale groundwater storage also shows a significant decreasing trend at a rate of 0.079 mm/a (p < 0.05) over the study period. Further analysis suggests that evaporation increase, decreased snow-fraction, and increased annual precipitation intensity induced by the rising temperature possibly are the drivers causing a significant decline in catchment low flow regimes and groundwater storage in the study area. This highlights that an increase in temperature has likely already caused significant changes in regional flow regimes in the high and cold mountainous regions, which has alarming consequences in regional ecological protection and sustainable water resources management.

scholarly journals Long-term, non-anthropogenic groundwater storage changes simulated by three global-scale hydrological models

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bailing Li ◽  
Matthew Rodell ◽  
Justin Sheffield ◽  
Eric Wood ◽  
Edwin Sutanudjaja
Keyword(s):  
Global Scale ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Groundwater Storage

scholarly journals Climate-groundwater dynamics inferred from GRACE and the role of hydraulic memory

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Opie ◽  
Richard G. Taylor ◽  
Chris M. Brierley ◽  
Mohammad Shamsudduha ◽  
Mark O. Cuthbert
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Strong Correlation ◽  
Response Times ◽  
General Pattern ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Groundwater Storage ◽  
Seasonal Climate ◽  
Groundwater Dynamics

Abstract. Groundwater is the largest store of freshwater on Earth after the cryosphere and provides a substantial proportion of the water used for domestic, irrigation and industrial purposes. Knowledge of this essential resource remains incomplete, in part, because of observational challenges of scale and accessibility. Here we examine a 14-year period (2002–2016) of GRACE observations to investigate climate-groundwater dynamics of 14 tropical and sub-tropical aquifers selected from WHYMAP's 37 large aquifer systems of the world. GRACE-derived changes in groundwater storage resolved using GRACE JPL Mascons and the CLM Land Surface Model are related to precipitation time series and regional-scale hydrogeology. We show that aquifers in dryland environments exhibit long-term hydraulic memory through a strong correlation between groundwater storage changes and annual precipitation anomalies integrated over the time series; aquifers in humid environments show short-term memory through strong correlation with monthly precipitation. This classification is consistent with estimates of Groundwater Response Times calculated from the hydrogeological properties of each system, with long (short) hydraulic memory associated with slow (rapid) response times. The results suggest that groundwater systems in dryland environments may be less sensitive to seasonal climate variability but vulnerable to long-term trends from which they will be slow to recover. In contrast, aquifers in humid regions may be more sensitive to seasonal climate disturbances such as ENSO-related drought but may also be relatively quick to recover. Exceptions to this general pattern are traced to human interventions through groundwater abstraction. Hydraulic memory is an important factor in the management of groundwater resources, particularly under climate change.

scholarly journals Understanding the potential of climate teleconnections to project future groundwater drought

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Rust ◽  
Ian Holman ◽  
John Bloomfield ◽  
Mark Cuthbert ◽  
Ron Corstanje
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Wavelet Transforms ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Groundwater Storage ◽  
The North ◽  
Drought Prediction ◽  
Groundwater Drought ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. Predicting the next major drought is of paramount interest to water managers, globally. Estimating the onset of groundwater drought is of particular importance, as groundwater resources are often assumed to be more resilient when surface water resources begin to fail. A potential source of long-term forecasting is offered by possible periodic controls on groundwater level via teleconnections with oscillatory ocean-atmosphere systems. However, relationships between large-scale climate systems and regional to local-scale rainfall, ET and groundwater are often complex and non-linear so that the influence of long-term climate cycles on groundwater drought remains poorly understood. Furthermore it is currently unknown whether the absolute contribution of multi-annual climate variability to total groundwater storage is significant. This study assesses the extent to which inter-annual variability in groundwater can be used to indicate the timing of groundwater droughts in the UK. Continuous wavelet transforms show how repeating teleconnection-driven 7-year and 16–32 year cycles in the majority of groundwater sites from all the UK's major aquifers can systematically control the recurrence of groundwater drought; and we provide evidence that these periodic modes are driven by teleconnections. Wavelet reconstructions demonstrate that multi-annual periodicities of the North Atlantic Oscillation, known to drive North Atlantic meteorology, comprise up to 40 % of the total groundwater storage variability. Furthermore, the majority of UK recorded droughts in recent history coincide with a minima phase in the 7-year NAO-driven cycles in groundwater level, allowing the estimation of future drought occurrences on a multi-annual timescale. Long-range groundwater drought forecasts via climate teleconnections present transformational opportunities to drought prediction and its management across the North Atlantic region.

scholarly journals Estimating long-term groundwater storage and its controlling factors in cold regions

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soumendra N. Bhanja ◽  
Xiaokun Zhang ◽  
Junye Wang
Keyword(s):  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Environmental Sustainability ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Cold Climate ◽  
Water Withdrawal ◽  
Groundwater Storage ◽  
Budget Analysis ◽  
Terrestrial Water

Abstract. Groundwater is one of the most important natural resources for economic development and environmental sustainability. However, groundwater storage can be significantly affected by climate change through permafrost thaw, snowpack change, and glacier retreat in cold climate regions, and human activities due to over-use and over-extraction of resources. Therefore, it is very important to be able to estimate long-term groundwater storage for biodiversity and sustainable development. In this study, we estimated groundwater storage in 11 major river basins across Alberta, Canada using a combination of remote sensing (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment-GRACE), in situ surface water data, and land surface modelling estimates (GWSAsat). We applied separate calculations for unconfined and confined aquifers, for the first time, to represent their hydrogeological differences. Storage coefficients for the individual wells were incorporated to compute the monthly GWSAobs. The GWSAsat from the two satellite-based products were compared with in situ groundwater storage (GWSAobs) estimates. The estimates of GWSAsat were in good agreement with the GWSAobs in terms of pattern and magnitude (e.g., RMSE ranged from 2 to 14 cm). While comparing GWSAsat with GWSAsat, most of the statistical analyses provide mixed responses, however the Hodrick-Presscott trend analysis clearly showed a better performance of the GRACE-mascon estimate. The results showed trends of GWSAobs depletion in 5 of the 11 basins. Our results indicate that the precipitation played an important role in influencing the GWSAobs variation in 4 of the 11 basins studied. Water budget analysis showed an availability of comparatively lower terrestrial water in 9 of the 11 basins in the study period. Historical groundwater recharge estimates indicate a reduction of groundwater recharge in 8 basins during 1960–2009. The output of this study could be used to develop sustainable water withdrawal strategies in Alberta, Canada.

scholarly journals Climate-groundwater dynamics inferred from GRACE and the role of hydraulic memory

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Taylor ◽  
Simon Opie ◽  
Chris Brierley ◽  
Mohammad Shamsudduha ◽  
Mark Cuthbert
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Strong Correlation ◽  
Response Times ◽  
General Pattern ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Groundwater Storage ◽  
Seasonal Climate ◽  
Groundwater Dynamics

&lt;p&gt;Groundwater is the largest store of freshwater on Earth after the cryosphere and provides a substantial proportion of the water used for domestic, irrigation and industrial purposes. Knowledge of the relationship between groundwater and climate is limited and undermined by the scale, duration, and accessibility of observations. Here we examine a 14-year period (2002-2016) of GRACE observations to investigate climate-groundwater dynamics of 14 tropical and sub-tropical aquifers selected from WHYMAP&amp;#8217;s 37 large aquifer systems of the world. GRACE-derived changes in groundwater storage resolved using GRACE JPL Mascons and the CLM Land Surface Model are related to precipitation time series and regional-scale hydrogeology. We show that aquifers in dryland environments exhibit long-term hydraulic memory through a strong correlation between groundwater storage changes and annual precipitation anomalies integrated over the time series; aquifers in humid environments show short-term memory through strong correlation with monthly precipitation. This classification is consistent with estimates of Groundwater Response Times calculated from the hydrogeological properties of each system, with long (short) hydraulic memory associated with slow (rapid) response times. The results suggest that groundwater systems in dryland environments may be less sensitive to seasonal climate variability but vulnerable to long-term trends from which they will be slow to recover. In contrast, aquifers in humid regions may be more sensitive to seasonal climate disturbances such as ENSO-related drought but may also be relatively quick to recover. Exceptions to this general pattern are traced to human interventions through groundwater abstraction. Hydraulic memory is an important factor in the management of groundwater resources, particularly under climate change.&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;

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