scholarly journals Towards smart-data: Improving predictive accuracy in long-term football team performance

2017 ◽  
Vol 124 ◽  
pp. 93-104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony Constantinou ◽  
Norman Fenton
Keyword(s):  
Team Performance ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Football Team ◽  
Smart Data

Lymphopenia and risk for long-term mortality among patients undergoing coronary angiography

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
B Zafrir ◽  
R Jaffe ◽  
H Sliman ◽  
O Barnett-Griness ◽  
W Saliba
Keyword(s):  
Coronary Angiography ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Distribution Width ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Long Term Mortality

Abstract Background Lymphopenia has been shown to be associated with adverse prognosis in chronic disease states that are related to immune dysregulation. Purpose We aimed to determine the association between lymphopenia and all-cause mortality in patients presenting to coronary angiography with or without acute coronary syndromes (ACS). We also investigated whether elevated red blood cell distribution width (RDW), an established cardiovascular prognostic marker, further refines risk stratification and improves predictive accuracy beyond lymphocytes count. Methods Retrospective cohort analysis of patients undergoing coronary angiography for evaluation or treatment of coronary artery disease between 2003 and 2018. Long-term mortality risk associated with relative (1000–1500 /μL) or severe (<1000 /μL) lymphopenia was analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression models, adjusting for comorbidities, ACS and RDW. Results Overall, 15179 patients underwent coronary angiography, at a mean age of 65±12 years. On cross-sectional analysis, lymphopenia was associated with kidney disease, cancer, heart failure and presentation with ACS, but lower rates of smoking and obesity. During a median follow-up of 7 (IQR 3.5–11.5) years, 4253 patients died. Compared to normal lymphocytes count (1500–5000 /μL), the multivariable adjusted hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence interval) for mortality was 1.31 (1.21–1.41) and 1.97 (1.75–2.22) for relative and severe lymphopenia, respectively. The increase in mortality associated with severe lymphopenia was significant in patients presenting with non-ACS [HR 2.18 (1.74–2.73)], ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) [HR 1.59 (1.15–2.21)], or unstable angina/non-STEMI [HR 2.00 (1.70–2.34)]; p-for-interaction 0.626. The association of lymphopenia with mortality remained significant after additional adjustment to RDW. High RDW (>14.5%) was associated with increased mortality risk in each of the lymphocytes count groups, and improved the predictive accuracy with AUC increase from 0.609 (0.601–0.616) to 0.646 (0.639–0.654) (p<0.001). Conclusions Lymphopenia is associated with increased risk for long-term mortality in patients undergoing coronary angiography, regardless of coronary presentation. High RDW may enhance the predictive ability of lymphopenia. Lymphocyte count and mortality risk Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

scholarly journals Expected Genetic Contributions and Their Impact on Gene Flow and Genetic Gain

Genetics ◽  
1999 ◽  
Vol 153 (2) ◽  
pp. 1009-1020 ◽  
Author(s):  
J A Woolliams ◽  
P Bijma ◽  
B Villanueva
Keyword(s):  
Gene Flow ◽  
Genetic Gain ◽  
Overlapping Generations ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Index Theory ◽  
Previous Theory ◽  
Selection Indices ◽  
Breeding Groups ◽  
Genetic Contributions

Abstract Long-term genetic contributions (ri) measure lasting gene flow from an individual i. By accounting for linkage disequilibrium generated by selection both within and between breeding groups (categories), assuming the infinitesimal model, a general formula was derived for the expected contribution of ancestor i in category q (μi(q)), given its selective advantages (si(q)). Results were applied to overlapping generations and to a variety of modes of inheritance and selection indices. Genetic gain was related to the covariance between ri and the Mendelian sampling deviation (ai), thereby linking gain to pedigree development. When si(q) includes ai, gain was related to E[μi(q)ai], decomposing it into components attributable to within and between families, within each category, for each element of si(q). The formula for μi(q) was consistent with previous index theory for predicting gain in discrete generations. For overlapping generations, accurate predictions of gene flow were obtained among and within categories in contrast to previous theory that gave qualitative errors among categories and no predictions within. The generation interval was defined as the period for which μi(q), summed over all ancestors born in that period, equaled 1. Predictive accuracy was supported by simulation results for gain and contributions with sib-indices, BLUP selection, and selection with imprinted variation.

scholarly journals Using Long Term Simulations to Understand Heat Transfer Processes during Steady Flow Conditions in Combined Sewers

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 570
Author(s):  
Mohamad Abdel-Aal ◽  
Simon Tait ◽  
Mostafa Mohamed ◽  
Alma Schellart
Keyword(s):  
Heat Transfer ◽  
Heat Recovery ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Flow Conditions ◽  
Empirical Relationships ◽  
Taylor Diagram ◽  
Physical Phenomena ◽  
The Heat Transfer Coefficient ◽  
Empirical Approaches

This paper describes a new heat transfer parameterisation between wastewater and in-sewer air based on understanding the physical phenomena observed in free surface wastewater and in-sewer air. Long-term wastewater and in-sewer air temperature data were collected and studied to indicate the importance of considering the heat exchange with in-sewer air and the relevant seasonal changes. The new parameterisation was based on the physical flow condition variations. Accurate modelling of wastewater temperature in linked combined sewers is needed to assess the feasibility of in-sewer heat recovery. Historically, the heat transfer coefficient between wastewater and in-sewer air has been estimated using simple empirical relationships. The newly developed parameterisation was implemented and validated using independent long-term flow and temperature datasets. Predictive accuracy of wastewater temperatures was investigated using a Taylor diagram, where absolute errors and correlations between modelled and observed values were plotted for different site sizes and seasons. The newly developed coefficient improved wastewater temperature modelling accuracy, compared with the older empirical approaches, which resulted in predicting more potential for heat recovery from large sewer networks. For individual locations, the RMSE between observed and predicted temperatures ranged between 0.15 and 0.5 °C with an overall average of 0.27 °C. Previous studies showed higher RMSE ranges, e.g., between 0.12 and 7.8 °C, with overall averages of 0.35, 0.42 and 2 °C. The new coefficient has also provided stable values at various seasons and minimised the number of required model inputs.

Mines in the End Zone: Are there Downsides to Team Performance?

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Troy V. Mumford ◽  
M. Travis Maynard
Keyword(s):  
Team Performance ◽  
Role Overload ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Regression To The Mean ◽  
Occupational Psychology ◽  
Team Success ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Overconfidence Bias

Abstract Research on teams in organizations tends to focus on understanding the causes of team performance with a focus on how to enjoy the benefits of team success and avoid the negative consequences of team failure. This paper instead asks the question, ‘what are some of the negative consequences of team success?’ A review of the literature on teams is augmented with research from cognitive science, sociology, occupational psychology, and psychology to explore the potential negative long-term consequences of teamwork success. The general topics of groupthink, overconfidence bias, regression to the mean, role overload, and strategy calcification are reviewed while discussing the implications for future research streams and practical team management.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Moxifloxacin-Containing Regimens in Pathologically Distinct Murine Tuberculosis Models

2015 ◽  
Vol 59 (7) ◽  
pp. 4026-4030 ◽  
Author(s):  
Si-Yang Li ◽  
Scott M. Irwin ◽  
Paul J. Converse ◽  
Khisi E. Mdluli ◽  
Anne J. Lenaerts ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mouse Strain ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Term Treatment ◽  
Mouse Strains ◽  
Disappointing Result ◽  
Similar Treatment ◽  
Infection Models ◽  
Long Term Treatment ◽  
Aerosol Infection

ABSTRACTIn the recently concluded REMox-TB trial, two 4-month moxifloxacin-containing regimens did not meet the criteria for noninferiority compared to the current 6-month first-line regimen to treat tuberculosis (TB). Despite the disappointing result, this phase 3 clinical trial provides a rare opportunity to gauge the predictive accuracy of the nonclinical models used to support regimen development. In parallel with the REMox-TB trial, we compared the efficacy of the same three regimens against chronic TB infection in the commonly used BALB/c mouse strain and in C3HeB/FeJ mice, which have attracted recent interest as a nonclinical efficacy model because they develop caseous lung lesions which may better resemble human TB. In long-term treatment experiments at two institutions, using low-dose aerosol infection models with 6- to 8-week incubation periods in both mouse strains, control mice received rifampin, isoniazid, pyrazinamide, and ethambutol (RHZE), and test mice received the same regimen with moxifloxacin replacing isoniazid (RMZE) or ethambutol (RHZM). Outcome measures were lung CFU counts during treatment and relapse after various durations of treatment. At both institutions and in both mouse strains, RMZE and RHZM reduced by approximately 1 month and 0 to 1 month, respectively, the treatment duration needed to produce the same relapse rate as RHZE. These results demonstrating generally similar treatment-shortening effects of the moxifloxacin-containing regimens in each mouse strain, with effect sizes consistent with the REMox-TB trial results, reinforce the predictive value of murine models for TB regimen development.

Measuring Interdisciplinary Team Performance in a Long-Term Care Setting

Medical Care ◽  
2004 ◽  
pp. 472-481 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helena Temkin-Greener ◽  
Diane Gross ◽  
Stephen J. Kunitz ◽  
Dana Mukamel
Keyword(s):  
Team Performance ◽  
Care Setting ◽  
Long Term Care ◽  
Interdisciplinary Team ◽  
Term Care

scholarly journals Geocoding and spatio-temporal modeling of long-term PM2.5 and NO2 exposure: the Mexican Teachers´ Cohort

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
KARLA CERVANTES-MARTINEZ ◽  
HORACIO RIOJAS-RODRÍGUEZ ◽  
CARLOS DÍAZ-AVALOS ◽  
HORTENSIA MORENO-MACÍAS ◽  
RUY LÓPEZ-RIDAURA ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Epidemiological Studies ◽  
Additive Models ◽  
Secondary Source ◽  
Source Information ◽  
Promising Alternative ◽  
Temporal Models ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Epidemiological studies on air pollution in Mexico often use the environmental concentrations of pollutants as measured by monitors closest to the home of participants as exposure proxies, yet this approach does not account for the space gradients of pollutants and ignores intra-city human mobility. This study aimed to develop high-resolution spatial and temporal models for predicting long-term exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 in ~16,500 participants from the Mexican Teachers’ Cohort study. We geocoded the home and work addresses of participants, and used secondary source information on geographical and meteorological variables as well as other pollutants to fit two generalized additive models capable of predicting monthly PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations during the 2004-2019 period. Both models were evaluated through 10-fold cross-validation, and showed high predictive accuracy with out-of-sample data and no overfitting (CV-RMSE=0.102 for PM2.5 and CV-RMSE=4.497 for NO2). Participants were exposed to a monthly average of 24.38 (6.78) mg/m3 of PM2.5 and 28.21 (8.00) ppb of NO2 during the study period. These models offer a promising alternative for estimating PM2.5 and NO2 exposure with high spatio-temporal resolution for epidemiological studies in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area.

Predicting Season Ticket Holder Retention Using Rich Behavioral Data

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Karg ◽  
Ali Tamaddoni ◽  
Heath McDonald ◽  
Michael Ewing
Keyword(s):  
Data Mining ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Team Performance ◽  
Research Agenda ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Behavioral Data ◽  
Important Research ◽  
Season Ticket ◽  
As Relationship ◽  
Game Attendance

Season ticket holders are a vital source of revenue for professional teams, but retention remains a perennial issue. Prior research has focused on broad variables, such as relationship tenure, game attendance frequency, and renewal intention, and has generally been limited to survey data with its attenuate problems. To advance this important research agenda, the present study analyzes team-supplied behavioral data to investigate and predict retention as a loyalty outcome for a single professional team over a 3-year period. Specifically, the authors embrace a broad range of loyalty measures and team performance to predict retention and employ novel data mining techniques to improve predictive accuracy.

For the Love of the Game: Implicit Arousal Following Symbolic Destruction of Sports Teams and Partners

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 117-123
Author(s):  
Bruce M. Hood ◽  
Alia F. Ataya ◽  
Angela S. Attwood ◽  
Marcus R. Munafò
Keyword(s):  
Emotional Distress ◽  
Skin Conductance ◽  
Skin Conductance Response ◽  
Emotional Attachment ◽  
Sports Teams ◽  
Future Studies ◽  
Football Team ◽  
The Individual

Abstract The belief that damaging an object may harm the individual to which the object relates is common among adults. We explored whether arousal following the destruction of a photograph of a loved partner is greater than that following the destruction of a photograph of a stranger, and whether this response is greater than when a photograph representing a non-person sentimental attachment is destroyed, using a measure of skin conductance response. Long-term supporters of a football team, who were also in a long-term relationship, showed increased arousal when asked to destroy a photograph of their partner, but not a photograph of their team, even though both elicited equivalent ratings of emotional attachment. This may be because football teams are conceptualized differently from individuals. Future studies should address whether destruction of symbols that represent the enduring nature of the team elicit more emotional distress than photograph.

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