scholarly journals COVID-19 severity determinants inferred through ecological and epidemiological modeling

One Health ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 100355
Author(s):  
Sofija Markovic ◽  
Andjela Rodic ◽  
Igor Salom ◽  
Ognjen Milicevic ◽  
Magdalena Djordjevic ◽  
...  
Author(s):  
Munazza Fatima ◽  
Kara J. O’Keefe ◽  
Wenjia Wei ◽  
Sana Arshad ◽  
Oliver Gruebner

The outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan, China in late December 2019 became the harbinger of the COVID-19 pandemic. During the pandemic, geospatial techniques, such as modeling and mapping, have helped in disease pattern detection. Here we provide a synthesis of the techniques and associated findings in relation to COVID-19 and its geographic, environmental, and socio-demographic characteristics, following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) methodology for scoping reviews. We searched PubMed for relevant articles and discussed the results separately for three categories: disease mapping, exposure mapping, and spatial epidemiological modeling. The majority of studies were ecological in nature and primarily carried out in China, Brazil, and the USA. The most common spatial methods used were clustering, hotspot analysis, space-time scan statistic, and regression modeling. Researchers used a wide range of spatial and statistical software to apply spatial analysis for the purpose of disease mapping, exposure mapping, and epidemiological modeling. Factors limiting the use of these spatial techniques were the unavailability and bias of COVID-19 data—along with scarcity of fine-scaled demographic, environmental, and socio-economic data—which restrained most of the researchers from exploring causal relationships of potential influencing factors of COVID-19. Our review identified geospatial analysis in COVID-19 research and highlighted current trends and research gaps. Since most of the studies found centered on Asia and the Americas, there is a need for more comparable spatial studies using geographically fine-scaled data in other areas of the world.


Author(s):  
Richard Jiang ◽  
Bruno Jacob ◽  
Matthew Geiger ◽  
Sean Matthew ◽  
Bryan Rumsey ◽  
...  

Abstract Summary We present StochSS Live!, a web-based service for modeling, simulation and analysis of a wide range of mathematical, biological and biochemical systems. Using an epidemiological model of COVID-19, we demonstrate the power of StochSS Live! to enable researchers to quickly develop a deterministic or a discrete stochastic model, infer its parameters and analyze the results. Availability and implementation StochSS Live! is freely available at https://live.stochss.org/ Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.


Biology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 463
Author(s):  
Narjiss Sallahi ◽  
Heesoo Park ◽  
Fedwa El Mellouhi ◽  
Mustapha Rachdi ◽  
Idir Ouassou ◽  
...  

Epidemiological Modeling supports the evaluation of various disease management activities. The value of epidemiological models lies in their ability to study various scenarios and to provide governments with a priori knowledge of the consequence of disease incursions and the impact of preventive strategies. A prevalent method of modeling the spread of pandemics is to categorize individuals in the population as belonging to one of several distinct compartments, which represents their health status with regard to the pandemic. In this work, a modified SIR epidemic model is proposed and analyzed with respect to the identification of its parameters and initial values based on stated or recorded case data from public health sources to estimate the unreported cases and the effectiveness of public health policies such as social distancing in slowing the spread of the epidemic. The analysis aims to highlight the importance of unreported cases for correcting the underestimated basic reproduction number. In many epidemic outbreaks, the number of reported infections is likely much lower than the actual number of infections which can be calculated from the model’s parameters derived from reported case data. The analysis is applied to the COVID-19 pandemic for several countries in the Gulf region and Europe.


Biology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 311
Author(s):  
Anna Fochesato ◽  
Giulia Simoni ◽  
Federico Reali ◽  
Giulia Giordano ◽  
Enrico Domenici ◽  
...  

Late 2019 saw the outbreak of COVID-19, a respiratory disease caused by the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, which rapidly turned into a pandemic, killing more than 2.77 million people and infecting more than 126 million as of late March 2021. Daily collected data on infection cases and hospitalizations informed decision makers on the ongoing pandemic emergency, enabling the design of diversified countermeasures, from behavioral policies to full lockdowns, to curb the virus spread. In this context, mechanistic models could represent valuable tools to optimize the timing and stringency of interventions, and to reveal non-trivial properties of the pandemic dynamics that could improve the design of suitable guidelines for future epidemics. We performed a retrospective analysis of the Italian epidemic evolution up to mid-December 2020 to gain insight into the main characteristics of the original strain of SARS-CoV-2, prior to the emergence of new mutations and the vaccination campaign. We defined a time-varying optimization procedure to calibrate a refined version of the SIDARTHE (Susceptible, Infected, Diagnosed, Ailing, Recognized, Threatened, Healed, Extinct) model and hence accurately reconstruct the epidemic trajectory. We then derived additional features of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy not directly retrievable from reported data, such as the estimate of the day zero of infection in late November 2019 and the estimate of the spread of undetected infection. The present analysis contributes to a better understanding of the past pandemic waves, confirming the importance of epidemiological modeling to support an informed policy design against epidemics to come.


2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (06) ◽  
pp. 1850090 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Athithan ◽  
Mini Ghosh ◽  
Xue-Zhi Li

The problem of corruption is of serious concern in all the nations, more so in the developing countries. This paper presents the formulation of a corruption control model and its analysis using the theory of differential equations. We found the equilibria of the model and stability of these equilibria are discussed in detail. The threshold quantity [Formula: see text] which has a similar implication here as in the epidemiological modeling is obtained for the present model. The corruption free equilibrium is found to be stable when [Formula: see text] is less than [Formula: see text] and unstable for [Formula: see text]. The endemic equilibrium which signifies the presence of corrupted individuals in the society exists only when [Formula: see text]. This equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable whenever it exists. We perform extensive numerical simulations to support the analytical findings. Furthermore, we extend the model to include optimal control and the optimal control profile is obtained to get the maximum control within a stipulated period of time. Our presented results show that the level of corruption in the society can be reduced if corruption control efforts through media/punishments etc. are increased and put in place.


2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
The Editor

Abstracts of the Oral Presentations at the session on Epidemiological modeling and Statistical methods at the International Conference on Research Methodology and Research Writing (ICRMSW) 2013. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/nje.v4i2.10177


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
AM Karmishin ◽  
IV Borisevich ◽  
VI Skvortsova ◽  
AA Goryaev ◽  
SM Yudin

Popular SIR models and their modifications used to generate predictions about epidemics and, specifically, the COVID-19 pandemic, are inadequate. The aim of this study was to find the laws describing the probability of infection in a biological object. Using theoretical methods of research based on the probability theory, we constructed the laws describing the probability of infection in a human depending on the infective dose and considering the temporal characteristics of a given infection. The so-called generalized time-factor law, which factors in the time of onset and the duration of an infectious disease, was found to be the most general. Among its special cases are the law describing the probability of infection developing by some point in time t, depending on the infective dose, and the law that does not factor in the time of onset. The study produced a full list of quantitative characteristics of pathogen virulence. The laws described in the study help to solve practical tasks and should lie at the core of mathematical epidemiological modeling.


Author(s):  
Bhalchandra S. Pujari ◽  
Snehal Shekatkar

The ongoing pandemic of 2019-nCov (COVID-19) coronavirus has made reliable epidemiological modeling an urgent necessity. Unfortunately, most of the existing models are either too fine-grained to be efficient or too coarse-grained to be reliable. Here we propose a computationally efficient hybrid approach that uses SIR model for individual cities which are in turn coupled via empirical transportation networks that facilitate migration among them. The treatment presented here differs from existing models in two crucial ways: first, self-consistent determination of coupling parameters so as to maintain the populations of individual cities, and second, the incorporation of distance dependent temporal delays in migration. We apply our model to Indian aviation as well as railway networks taking into account populations of more than 300 cities. Our results project that through the domestic transportation, the significant population is poised to be exposed within 90 days of the onset of epidemic. Thus, serious supervision of domestic transport networks is warranted even after restricting international migration.


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