Economic Forecast: Rough Road Ahead

2012 ◽  
Vol 43 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
BRUCE JANCIN
Keyword(s):  
1977 ◽  
Vol 81 ◽  
pp. 67-71 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.J.C. Surrey ◽  
P.A. Ormerod

The construction of an economic forecast involves a blend of the use of a set of formal equations summarising to the best of the model-builders' ability the dominant characteristics of the past behaviour of the economy, together with a complex set of judgements about the way in which these equations have recently behaved and are likely to behave over the forecast period. We, in common with other forecasters, have published papers about the characteristics of our formal model and about particular equations, but little about the rather flexible way in which the model is actually used to produce a forecast. This Note is an attempt to redress the balance somewhat. It is also intended as an explanatory note to the table of residual adjustments which, beginning with this issue of the Review (see p. 19), we intend to publish regularly as part of the background to our quarterly forecasts.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Wusheng Zhou

With the rapid development of tourism, tourism revenue, as one of the important indicators to measure the development of the tourism economy, has high research value. The quasi-prediction of tourism revenue can drive the development of a series of related industries and accelerate the development of the domestic economy. When forecasting tourism income, it is necessary to examine the causal relationship between tourism income and local economic development. The traditional cointegration analysis method is to extract the promotion characteristics of tourism income to the local economy and construct a tourism income prediction model, but it cannot accurately describe the causal relationship between tourism income and local economic development and cannot accurately predict tourism income. We propose an optimized forecasting method of tourism revenue based on time series. This method first conducts a cointegration test on the time series data of the relationship between tourism income and local economic development, constructs a two-variable autoregressive model of tourism income and local economy, and uses the swarm intelligence method to test the causal relationship and the relationship between tourism income and local economic development, calculate the proportion of tourism industry, define the calculation result as the direct influence factor of tourism industry on the local economy, calculate the relevant effect of local tourism development and economic income, and construct tourism income optimization forecast model. The simulation results show that the model used can accurately predict tourism revenue.


Author(s):  
Delya Valeryevna Ulanova ◽  
Mikhail Igorevich Shikulskiy

The article analyzes the features of forecasting analysis of the socio-economic development of the RF subject (the Astrakhan region is taken as an example). The article describes the process of conducting analysis of coming data and forecasting; shows the stages of the process (forming a purpose of the study, collecting participating explanatory variables; accumulation of important statistical data; analyzing forecast figures using a certain predicting method; forming and visualizing analysis and prediction reports), requirements to baseline information and most common methods of socio-economic forecast. The existing relationship and interaction between the forecasting indicators should be taken to consideration in order to obtain well-coordinated and consistent data forecasts. On the basis of the analytical platform Deductor there has been developed the information-analytical system, its purpose is running of the script proposed by an analyst, and creating reports. The system calculates the forecasts, which are then combined into one data set. This method is based on information about the model, which allows selecting the optimal forecast with a minimum error.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1050 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenfeng Shao ◽  
Penghao Tang ◽  
Zhongyuan Wang ◽  
Nayyer Saleem ◽  
Sarath Yam ◽  
...  

Building extraction from high-resolution remote sensing images is of great significance in urban planning, population statistics, and economic forecast. However, automatic building extraction from high-resolution remote sensing images remains challenging. On the one hand, the extraction results of buildings are partially missing and incomplete due to the variation of hue and texture within a building, especially when the building size is large. On the other hand, the building footprint extraction of buildings with complex shapes is often inaccurate. To this end, we propose a new deep learning network, termed Building Residual Refine Network (BRRNet), for accurate and complete building extraction. BRRNet consists of such two parts as the prediction module and the residual refinement module. The prediction module based on an encoder–decoder structure introduces atrous convolution of different dilation rates to extract more global features, by gradually increasing the receptive field during feature extraction. When the prediction module outputs the preliminary building extraction results of the input image, the residual refinement module takes the output of the prediction module as an input. It further refines the residual between the result of the prediction module and the real result, thus improving the accuracy of building extraction. In addition, we use Dice loss as the loss function during training, which effectively alleviates the problem of data imbalance and further improves the accuracy of building extraction. The experimental results on Massachusetts Building Dataset show that our method outperforms other five state-of-the-art methods in terms of the integrity of buildings and the accuracy of complex building footprints.


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