scholarly journals ‘Come on, man!’ On errors, choice, and Hayekian behavioral economics

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Cass R. Sunstein

Abstract With respect to the views of dead thinkers, answers to many particular questions are often interpretive in Ronald Dworkin's sense. Such answers must attempt (1) to fit the materials to be interpreted and (2) to justify them, that is, to put them in the best constructive light. What looks like (1), or what purports to be (1), is often (2). That is, when a follower of Kant urges that ‘Kant would say x’, or that ‘Kantianism entails y’, the goal is to make the best constructive sense of Kant and Kantianism, not merely to adhere to something that Kant actually said. An approach to behavioral economics cannot claim to be Hayekian if it is rooted in enthusiasm for the abilities of planners to set prices and quantities, or if it sees the price system as a jumble of mistakes and errors. But within a not-so-narrow range, a variety of freedom-preserving approaches, alert to the epistemic limits of planners, can fairly claim to be Hayekian. Hayekian behavioral economics, I suggest, is an approach that (1) recognizes the importance and pervasiveness of individual errors, (2) emphasizes the epistemic limits of planners, (3) builds on individual choices rather than planner preferences, and (4) gives authority to choices made under epistemically favorable conditions, in which informational deficits and behavioral biases are least likely to be at work. The key step, of course, is (4). If it is properly elaborated, the resulting approach deserves respect. It is worthy of serious consideration, even if some of us, including the present author, would not entirely embrace it. In defending that proposition, the present essay responds to some critical remarks on behaviorally informed policy, including the resort to ‘explainawaytions’ (Matthew Rabin's term) for behavioral findings.

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Cass R. Sunstein

Abstract One of Friedrich Hayek's most important arguments pointed to the epistemic advantages of the price system, regarded as an institution. As Hayek showed, the price system incorporates the information held by numerous, dispersed people. Like John Stuart Mill, Hayek also offered an epistemic argument on behalf of freedom of choice. A contemporary challenge to that epistemic argument comes from behavioral economics, which has uncovered an assortment of reasons why choosers err, and also pointed to possible distortions in the price system. But, even if those findings are accepted, what should public institutions do? How should they proceed? A neo-Hayekian approach would seek to reduce the knowledge problem by asking what individual choosers actually do under epistemically favorable conditions. In practice, that question can be disciplined by asking five subsidiary questions: (1) What do consistent choosers, unaffected by self-evidently irrelevant factors, end up choosing? (2) What do informed choosers choose? (3) What do active choosers choose? (4) When people are free of behavioral biases, including (say) present bias or unrealistic optimism, what do they choose? (5) What do people choose when their viewscreen is broad, and they do not suffer from limited attention? These questions are illustrated with reference to the intense controversy over fuel economy standards.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Calbraith Owsley

This paper presents results from an experiment testing 10 of the core biases from the behavioral economics literature amongst two distinct ‘non-WEIRD’ (Western Educated Industrialized Rich and Democratic) population groups: low-income Indians, and university students from an elite Indian university. The study tests for both the existence of the ‘behavioral bias’ for each measure with our ‘non-WEIRD’ sample and tests for heterogeneity across the socioeconomically distinct sub-samples. We find that both sub-samples display significant 'bias' in the majority of tests and across different categories of bias, suggesting that behavioral biases are not peculiar to Western samples. We further find that the patterns of bias are the same for each sub-sample for most measures, but that there are notable exceptions for a small subset of measures. In most of these cases, the student sample, closer to typical samples for this type of research, shows stronger bias than the low-income sample.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3(J)) ◽  
pp. 70-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
Javier Cifuentes-Faura

Behavioral Economics seeks to understand the environments where decisions are made and to build proposals to optimize them. It offers the possibility to improve the design of public policies and, therefore, to enhance their results. The appearance of COVID-19 has caused thousands of deaths and millions of infected people around the world. This article describes the main behavioral biases that people exhibit during this pandemic. In order to curb the number of infections and stop the panic, it is essential to use Behavioral Economics tools, such as those proposed in this paper, to design messages that are simple and that motivate appropriate changes in human behavior. This work shows the importance of transmitting information correctly, of being aware of our own biases and that individual responsibility is fundamental to get out of this crisis.


2021 ◽  
Vol 78 (3) ◽  
pp. 80-87
Author(s):  
A.I. Fedosimova ◽  
◽  
I.A. Lebedev ◽  
E.A. Dmitriyeva ◽  
S.A. Ibraimova ◽  
...  

To search for signals of the phase transition of matter from the hadronic state to the quark­gluon plasma, interactions with extreme characteristics are studied. The study of the dependence of the av­erage multiplicity on the projectile energy for sulfur and silicon nuclei with energies of 3.7 AGeV, 14 AGeV, and 200 AGeV has been carried out. Experimental data on inelastic interactions with the nuclei of the NIKFI BR­2 emulsion obtained at the SPS at CERN and at the Synchrophasotron at JINR. To take into account fluctuations in the initial conditions of the nucleus­nucleus interaction, the events were divided into central and peripheral ones. A comparative analysis of the average multiplicity with heavy and light nuclei of the photographic emulsion is presented. The multiplicity increase factor has an almost linear increase in energy (on the logarithmic axis) for all events, except for the central interactions of sulfur nuclei with heavy emulsion nuclei at 200 AGeV. These events are explosive events, which give a flux of secondary particles in a narrow range of average pseudo­rapidity and significantly shifted towards low values <η>. The analysis of events of complete destruction of the projectile nucleus is presented. Such events are considered as events in which the most favorable conditions are created for the formation of a quark­gluon plasma.


2014 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 49-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Åstebro ◽  
Holger Herz ◽  
Ramana Nanda ◽  
Roberto A. Weber

There is a growing body of evidence that many entrepreneurs seem to enter and persist in entrepreneurship despite earning low risk-adjusted returns. This has lead to attempts to provide explanations—using both standard economic theory and behavioral economics— for why certain individuals may be attracted to such an apparently unprofitable activity. Drawing on research in behavioral economics, in the sections that follow, we review three sets of possible interpretations for understanding the empirical facts related to the entry into, and persistence in, entrepreneurship. Differences in risk aversion provide a plausible and intuitive interpretation of entrepreneurial activity. In addition, a growing literature has begun to highlight the potential importance of overconfidence in driving entrepreneurial outcomes. Such a mechanism may appear at face value to work like a lower level of risk aversion, but there are clear conceptual differences—in particular, overconfidence likely arises from behavioral biases and misperceptions of probability distributions. Finally, nonpecuniary taste-based factors may be important in motivating both the decisions to enter into and to persist in entrepreneurship.


Author(s):  
Annie McClanahan

Chapter 1 analyzes novelistic representations of the 2008 credit crisis. Focusing on Jonathan Dee’s The Privileges, Adam Haslett’s Union Atlantic, and Martha McPhee’s Dear Money, it reads the post-crisis novel’s interest in individual psychology alongside and against the rise of behavioral economics. Behavioral economists understand the financial crisis as a consequence of individual choices and cultural climates: from excessive optimism and irrational exuberance to greed and overweening self-interest. At once mirroring and refuting these explanations, the post-credit-crisis novel reveals a deep ambivalence about the model of psychological complexity that undergirds both novelistic character and behavioralist economics. Exploring these problems through experiments with narrative perspective, these post-crisis novels suggest that the rich, full, autonomous homines economici of both the realist novel and microeconomic theory are bankrupt.


1997 ◽  
Vol 161 ◽  
pp. 203-218 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tobias C. Owen

AbstractThe clear evidence of water erosion on the surface of Mars suggests an early climate much more clement than the present one. Using a model for the origin of inner planet atmospheres by icy planetesimal impact, it is possible to reconstruct the original volatile inventory on Mars, starting from the thin atmosphere we observe today. Evidence for cometary impact can be found in the present abundances and isotope ratios of gases in the atmosphere and in SNC meteorites. If we invoke impact erosion to account for the present excess of129Xe, we predict an early inventory equivalent to at least 7.5 bars of CO2. This reservoir of volatiles is adequate to produce a substantial greenhouse effect, provided there is some small addition of SO2(volcanoes) or reduced gases (cometary impact). Thus it seems likely that conditions on early Mars were suitable for the origin of life – biogenic elements and liquid water were present at favorable conditions of pressure and temperature. Whether life began on Mars remains an open question, receiving hints of a positive answer from recent work on one of the Martian meteorites. The implications for habitable zones around other stars include the need to have rocky planets with sufficient mass to preserve atmospheres in the face of intensive early bombardment.


Author(s):  
T.E. Pratt ◽  
R.W. Vook

(111) oriented thin monocrystalline Ni films have been prepared by vacuum evaporation and examined by transmission electron microscopy and electron diffraction. In high vacuum, at room temperature, a layer of NaCl was first evaporated onto a freshly air-cleaved muscovite substrate clamped to a copper block with attached heater and thermocouple. Then, at various substrate temperatures, with other parameters held within a narrow range, Ni was evaporated from a tungsten filament. It had been shown previously that similar procedures would yield monocrystalline films of CU, Ag, and Au.For the films examined with respect to temperature dependent effects, typical deposition parameters were: Ni film thickness, 500-800 A; Ni deposition rate, 10 A/sec.; residual pressure, 10-6 torr; NaCl film thickness, 250 A; and NaCl deposition rate, 10 A/sec. Some additional evaporations involved higher deposition rates and lower film thicknesses.Monocrystalline films were obtained with substrate temperatures above 500° C. Below 450° C, the films were polycrystalline with a strong (111) preferred orientation.


Author(s):  
Gianluigi Botton ◽  
Gilles L'espérance

As interest for parallel EELS spectrum imaging grows in laboratories equipped with commercial spectrometers, different approaches were used in recent years by a few research groups in the development of the technique of spectrum imaging as reported in the literature. Either by controlling, with a personal computer both the microsope and the spectrometer or using more powerful workstations interfaced to conventional multichannel analysers with commercially available programs to control the microscope and the spectrometer, spectrum images can now be obtained. Work on the limits of the technique, in terms of the quantitative performance was reported, however, by the present author where a systematic study of artifacts detection limits, statistical errors as a function of desired spatial resolution and range of chemical elements to be studied in a map was carried out The aim of the present paper is to show an application of quantitative parallel EELS spectrum imaging where statistical analysis is performed at each pixel and interpretation is carried out using criteria established from the statistical analysis and variations in composition are analyzed with the help of information retreived from t/γ maps so that artifacts are avoided.


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