scholarly journals Market Segmentation and Dynamic Analysis of Sparkling Wine Purchases in Italy

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-22
Author(s):  
Francesca Bassi ◽  
Fulvia Pennoni ◽  
Luca Rossetto

Abstract The Italian market of sparkling wines increases as volume and assortment (such as brands, appellations, typologies) mainly because of sparkling Prosecco consumption. We investigate the repeated purchase behavior of sparkling wines in two years within the supermarket channel through scanner data collected from a consumer panel. We propose a Hidden Markov Model to analyze these data, assuming an unobservable process to capture consumers’ preferences and allowing us to consider purchases sparsity over time. We consider multivariate responses defining types of purchases, namely price, appellation, and sugar content. Customers’ covariates influence the initial and transition probabilities of the latent process. We identify five market segments, and we track their evolution over time. One segment includes Prosecco-oriented consumers, and we show that loyalty to Prosecco changes strongly over time according to the region of residence, income, and family type. The findings improve the understanding of the market and may provide evidence to design successful marketing strategies. (JEL Classifications: C33, C51, D12, L66)

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tiina Vikstedt ◽  
Martti Arffman ◽  
Satu Heliövaara-Peippo ◽  
Kristiina Manderbacka ◽  
Eeva Reissell ◽  
...  

Abstract Background A persistent research finding in Finland and elsewhere has been variation in medical practices both between and within countries. Variation seems to exist especially if medical decision making involves discretion and the best treatment cannot be identified unambiguously. This is true for hysterectomy when performed for benign causes. The aim of the current study was to investigate regional trends in hysterectomy in Finland and the potential convergence of rates over time. Methods We used hospital discharge register data on hysterectomies performed, diagnoses, age, and region of residence to examine hospital discharges for women undergoing hysterectomy in 2001–2018 among total female population aged 25 years or older in Finland. We examined hysterectomy rates among biannual cohorts by indication, calculated age-standardised rates and used multilevel models to analyse potential convergence over time. Results Altogether 131,695 hysterectomies were performed in Finland 2001–2018. We found a decreasing trend, with the age-adjusted overall hysterectomy rate decreasing from 553/100,000 person years in 2001–2002 to 289/100,000 py in 2017–2018. Large but converging regional differences were found. The correlations between hospital district intercepts and slopes in time ranged from − 0.71 to − 0.97 (p < 0.001) suggesting diminishing variation. Conclusions Our findings demonstrate that change in hysterectomy practices and more uniformity across regions are achievable goals. Regional variation still exists suggesting differences in medical practices.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 7397
Author(s):  
Isabel Blanco-Penedo ◽  
Javier García-Gudiño ◽  
Elena Angón ◽  
José Manuel Perea ◽  
Alfredo J. Escribano ◽  
...  

The aim of the present study was (1) to investigate what consumers include within the concept of food sustainability and its link with sustainable consumption, by identifying meaningful consumer typologies from the concept of food sustainability and food choice factors framed by SDG 12, and (2) to know how different farm systems attributes affecting purchase behavior are associated with such typologies. Consumers from two Spanish regions (n = 403) answered a paper questionnaire to know their degree of knowledge of sustainability, and beliefs, behavior, attitudes and preferences towards food sustainability, and the importance given to product characteristics and shopping practices. A principal component analysis was conducted to identify groups with similar answers, to average some of the questions before the final analysis of variance, which includes demographic classes as fixed effects. A cluster analysis using the most representative questions identified two clusters. cluster 1 (68.4%) responded to more sustainability-related attributes, and cluster 2 (31.5%) presented a less-expanded concept of sustainability. The origin of the product and quality certification (local, organic) was important for food purchase practices. The place of residence and gender differences of the consumers were the most influential factors. In the conjoint study, regarding the purchase of Iberian pork, cluster 1 remained unwilling to sacrifice outdoor systems and local breed at the expense of the price, in the case of the Iberian pig production. The most important demographic differentiator was the region of residence of the consumer. In conclusion, consumers are not aware of the wider aspects included in the sustainability concept. Moreover, the concept of sustainability elicits different meanings to the segments of the consumers identified.


2015 ◽  
Vol 66 (2) ◽  
pp. 156-163 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maya R. Hood White ◽  
Hildegarde Heymann

2018 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Çağlar Çağlayan ◽  
Hiromi Terawaki ◽  
Qiushi Chen ◽  
Ashish Rai ◽  
Turgay Ayer ◽  
...  

Purpose Microsimulation is a modeling technique that uses a sample size of individual units (microunits), each with a unique set of attributes, and allows for the simulation of downstream events on the basis of predefined states and transition probabilities between those states over time. In this article, we describe the history of the role of microsimulation in medicine and its potential applications in oncology as useful tools for population risk stratification and treatment strategy design for precision medicine. Methods We conducted a comprehensive and methodical search of the literature using electronic databases—Medline, Embase, and Cochrane—for works published between 1985 and 2016. A medical subject heading search strategy was constructed for Medline searches by using a combination of relevant search terms, such as “microsimulation model medicine,” “multistate modeling cancer,” and “oncology.” Results Microsimulation modeling is particularly useful for the study of optimal intervention strategies when randomized control trials may not be feasible, ethical, or practical. Microsimulation models can retain memory of prior behaviors and states. As such, it allows an explicit representation and understanding of how various processes propagate over time and affect the final outcomes for an individual or in a population. Conclusion A well-calibrated microsimulation model can be used to predict the outcome of the event of interest for a new individual or subpopulations, assess the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of alternative interventions, and project the future disease burden of oncologic diseases. In the growing field of oncology research, a microsimulation model can serve as a valuable tool among the various facets of methodology available.


2004 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 233-245 ◽  
Author(s):  
Delcio Sandi ◽  
José Benício Paes Chaves ◽  
Antônio Carlos Gomes de Sousa ◽  
June Ferreira Maia Parreiras ◽  
Marco Túlio Coelho da Silva ◽  
...  

Changes in Hunter L, a and b values, glucose, fructose and sucrose contents, concentration of four volatile compounds (ethyl butirate, ethyl caproate, hexyl butirate and hexyl caproate) and furfural, were studied in yellow passion fruit juice (Passiflora edulis var. flavicarpa) pasteurized at 75ºC/60s, 80ºC/41s or 85ºC/27s, during storage at room temperature (25±5ºC) and refrigeration (5±1ºC) for 120 days. While the sucrose content decreased, the glucose and fructose contents increased significantly over storage time. The Hunter L and b values behaved similarly, with a tendency to decrease over time, inversely to Hunter a value. Volatile compound concentrations also decreased over time, inversely to the furfural content. Pasteurization at 85ºC/27s resulted minimum changes in the studied passion fruit characteristics, while that at 75ºC/60s was the most harmful. Storage under refrigeration tended to keep the best quality characteristics of the juice.


Blood ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 134 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 597-597
Author(s):  
Chi L. Nguyen ◽  
Antonio L.C. Gomes ◽  
Jonathan U. Peled ◽  
John B. Slingerland ◽  
Ann E. Slingerland ◽  
...  

The intestinal microbiota undergoes major perturbations during allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HCT), and low microbiota diversity during this period is associated with an increased risk of graft-versus-host disease and mortality. Identifying the environmental variables that might impact intestinal microbiota could inform strategies to maintain and restore a healthy microbiota state. However, understanding microbial dynamics is challenging due to the high-dimensional nature of microbiota data. Here, we simplified complex microbiota communities into clusters and investigated the dynamics under different conditions in terms of transition probabilities in a large dataset of allo-HCT fecal specimens (Fig. a). The bacterial compositions of 7,930 samples from 1,076 allo-HCT patients were determined by 16S rRNA deep-sequencing. Samples were then clustered into 10 distinct states by k-means clustering of a Bray-Curtis β-diversity matrix (Fig. b). These clusters captured variations in diversity and microbiota compositions (Fig. c-d). Cluster 1 represented a high-diversity state, and Lachnospiraceae and other Clostridiales were the most commonly observed taxa in this cluster. The low-diversity clusters 9 and 10 consisted mostly of Streptococcus-dominated and Enterococcus-dominated samples, respectively. We utilized a regression-based predictive approach to model cluster transition probabilities in terms of a weight for remaining in the same cluster over time (self-weight) and a weight for attracting transitions from other clusters over time (attractor-weight). Controlling for the effect of time, the weights measured the contribution of different environmental exposures to intestinal microbial behaviors. A negative parameter coefficient indicates cluster destabilization or decreased cluster transition likelihood in the case of self-weights and attractor-weights, respectively. We evaluated the impact of the 3 most commonly used non-prophylactic antibacterial drugs using 2359 daily samples from 385 allo-HCT patients collected between day -14 to 7 relative to transplant. High-diversity cluster 1 was significantly destabilized by piperacillin-tazobactam (pip-tazo) exposure (β = -0.87, P &lt; 0.05). Meanwhile, exposure to cefepime and meropenem did not have a significant effect on cluster 1 stability (Fig. e). Exposure to pip-tazo also increased the transition probability to the Streptococcus-dominated cluster 9 (β = 1.83, P &lt; 0.001), while cefepime (β = 2.69, P &lt; 0.05) and meropenem (β = 1.96, P &lt; 0.01) exposure favored transitions to the Enterococcus-dominant cluster 10. These results suggest that antibiotic exposures are associated with different composition outcomes depending on patient microbiota states during transplant period. In a small subset of 242 daily samples from 46 allo-HCT patients with detailed daily dietary information, we observed that an increase in total protein intake (range = 0-137.4g; median = 36g) was associated with low self-maintenance of cluster 1 (β = -1.29, P &lt; 0.05), while an increase in total fat intake (range = 0-183.3g; median = 34.5g) improved cluster 1 stability (β = 1.44, P &lt; 0.05). Overall, dietary intakes could also modulate transition probabilities between microbial communities in allo-HCT patients. While prior studies have assessed specific bacterial taxa or diversity indices as biomarkers of clinical outcomes, here we considered the entire intestinal communities and demonstrated that various environmental exposures were associated with changes in microbiota composition during allo-HCT. Using a regression-based approach that predicts cluster transitions in response to environmental conditions, we found that pip-tazo exposure was associated with destabilization of a high-diversity state and increased transitions to a Streptococcus-dominated state, while cefepime and meropenem exposure did not disrupt high-diversity microbial community. Furthermore, increased protein intake was also associated with disruption to the high-diversity cluster, while increased fat intake strengthened the maintenance of a diverse and healthy microbial community. Ultimately, this computation framework aims to inform strategies to optimize treatment plans for allo-HCT patients to maximize a healthy gut microbiota state and clinical outcomes. Disclosures Gomes: Seres Therapeutics: Other: Part of Salary. Peled:Seres Therapeutics: Research Funding. Slingerland:Seres Therapeutics: Other: Salary supported by Seres funding. Clurman:Seres Therapeutics: Research Funding. Giralt:Celgene: Consultancy, Research Funding; Takeda: Consultancy; Sanofi: Consultancy, Research Funding; Amgen: Consultancy, Research Funding. Perales:Bristol-Meyers Squibb: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Abbvie: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Bellicum: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; NexImmune: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Incyte: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; Nektar Therapeutics: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Novartis: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Omeros: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Takeda: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Merck: Consultancy, Honoraria; Medigene: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Servier: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Kyte/Gilead: Research Funding; Miltenyi: Research Funding; MolMed: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees. Pamer:MedImmune: Honoraria; Seres Therapeutics: Honoraria, Patents & Royalties; Bristol Myers Squibb: Honoraria; Novartis: Honoraria; Celgene: Honoraria; Ferring Pharmaceuticals: Honoraria. van den Brink:Acute Leukemia Forum (ALF): Consultancy, Honoraria; Seres Therapeutics: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; Flagship Ventures: Consultancy, Honoraria; Novartis: Consultancy, Honoraria; Evelo: Consultancy, Honoraria; Jazz Pharmaceuticals: Consultancy, Honoraria; Therakos: Consultancy, Honoraria; Amgen: Consultancy, Honoraria; Merck & Co, Inc.: Consultancy, Honoraria; Juno Therapeutics: Other: Licensing; Magenta and DKMS Medical Council: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees.


Author(s):  
Ling Luo ◽  
Bin Li ◽  
Irena Koprinska ◽  
Shlomo Berkovsky ◽  
Fang Chen

Customer behavior modeling is important for businesses in order to understand, attract and retain customers. It is critical that the models are able to track the dynamics of customer behavior over time. We propose FC-CSM, a Customer Segmentation Model based on a Fragmentation-Coagulation process, which can track the evolution of customer segmentation, including the splitting and merging of customer groups. We conduct a case study using transaction data from a major Australian supermarket chain, where we: 1) show that our model achieves high fitness of purchase rate, outperforming models using mixture of Poisson processes; 2) compare the impact of promotions on customers for different products; and 3) track how customer groups evolve over time and how individual customers shift across groups. Our model provides valuable information to stakeholders about the different types of customers, how they change purchase behavior, and which customers are more receptive to promotion campaigns.


2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 137
Author(s):  
Emanuel Bagna

The illiquidity discount represents the reduction in the value of an asset because it cannot be easily sold. It is usually applied by appraisals in valuing a minority interest in a closely-held business. This article presents a literature review of the illiquidity discount and an analysis of the level of discount in Italy during the period 2003 - 2012. The analysis conducted made it possible to verify: a) the existence for the Italian market of a discount for lack of liquidity for shares with less turnover; b) the variability over time of that discount, thus agreeing with the literature that has found the premiums for liquidity risk vary over time. The discounts that were found are, nonetheless, smaller than those indicated in the literature. The descending trend over time for the discount would seem to be particularly consistent with the studies on restricted stocks.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alice Labban ◽  
Yu Ma ◽  
Laurette Dube

Purpose This paper aims to elucidate some of the complexity around food consumption by drawing from neuroscience research of food as a motivated choice (i.e. a neurobehavioral process sensitive to dopaminergic response to food and environmental cues such as marketing). The authors explore the single and compounded effect of the motivational salience of food’s intrinsic reinforcing value tied to its sugar content and that of two marketing food cues, price and in-store display, on actual consumer purchase behavior. Design/methodology/approach The authors test the above hypotheses in two perceived “healthy” product categories with a wide distribution of sugar content. The authors estimate a within-category model using three years of retail transaction data to test the effect on weekly sales. Findings The authors confirm the single effect of each of food’s and marketing cues’ motivational salience as well as their compounded effect with high-motivational-salience food being less price elastic and more susceptible to in-store display activities. Research limitations/implications This research highlights the need to complement current reliance on unhealthy/healthy perception with finer grained objective evidence linked to the formulation of the food itself and the marketing applied to them. Practical implications The present study findings may help marketing managers and policymakers develop better targeted pricing and display strategies for low- and high-motivational-salience food, attempting to strike a better balance between consumer welfare and commercial performance. Originality/value This paper is one of the few that links real-world market outcomes to predictions derived from a unique combination of consumer neuroscience and neurobiology of food, advancing data-driven decisions.


2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 79 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marten Lagergren ◽  
Noriko Kurube ◽  
Yasuhiko Saito

A simulation model has been developed, which looks at the future state of functional limitations and provision of long-term care from the individual’s point of view and compares the prospects of Japanese and Swedish old persons. The model calculates the distribution on level of functional limitations combined with level of long-term care (LTC) for a 78-year-old man or woman after 3, 6, 9, 12 and 15 years given the initial state expressed in those terms. Longitudinal data for the model has been taken from the Nihon University Japanese Longitudinal Study of Aging (NUJLSOA) study, two waves three years apart, and the Swedish National Study of Aging and Care (SNAC) study, baseline and three-year follow up. Transition probabilities are calculated by relating individual states between waves. Changes over time are then calculated in the model by matrix multiplication using the Markov assumption. The results are in most respects similar for Japan and Sweden. A difference is that institutional care in Sweden is a much more definite stage reflecting differences in end-of-life care policy. Future state and mortality depends to a great degree on the initial state, both in terms of dependency and level of LTC. Thus, 78-year-old people who have no functional dependency and no LTC have a much higher probability of surviving the coming 10–15 years than people of the same age who already are dependent and in need of LTC services. Not a few of the initially independent 78-year-old persons will retain that state even after 15 years. However, the effect of the initial state seems to decrease over time.


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