Microsimulation Modeling in Oncology

Purpose Microsimulation is a modeling technique that uses a sample size of individual units (microunits), each with a unique set of attributes, and allows for the simulation of downstream events on the basis of predefined states and transition probabilities between those states over time. In this article, we describe the history of the role of microsimulation in medicine and its potential applications in oncology as useful tools for population risk stratification and treatment strategy design for precision medicine. Methods We conducted a comprehensive and methodical search of the literature using electronic databases—Medline, Embase, and Cochrane—for works published between 1985 and 2016. A medical subject heading search strategy was constructed for Medline searches by using a combination of relevant search terms, such as “microsimulation model medicine,” “multistate modeling cancer,” and “oncology.” Results Microsimulation modeling is particularly useful for the study of optimal intervention strategies when randomized control trials may not be feasible, ethical, or practical. Microsimulation models can retain memory of prior behaviors and states. As such, it allows an explicit representation and understanding of how various processes propagate over time and affect the final outcomes for an individual or in a population. Conclusion A well-calibrated microsimulation model can be used to predict the outcome of the event of interest for a new individual or subpopulations, assess the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of alternative interventions, and project the future disease burden of oncologic diseases. In the growing field of oncology research, a microsimulation model can serve as a valuable tool among the various facets of methodology available.

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Sequentially calibrating a Bayesian microsimulation model to incorporate new information and assumptions

BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making ◽

10.1186/s12911-021-01726-0 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 22 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Maria DeYoreo ◽

Carolyn M. Rutter ◽

Jonathan Ozik ◽

Nicholson Collier

Keyword(s):

Sojourn Time ◽

Population Level ◽

Microsimulation Model ◽

Sequential Approach ◽

New Information ◽

Key Population ◽

History Of ◽

Colon And Rectum ◽

Event Histories ◽

Microsimulation Models

Abstract Background Microsimulation models are mathematical models that simulate event histories for individual members of a population. They are useful for policy decisions because they simulate a large number of individuals from an idealized population, with features that change over time, and the resulting event histories can be summarized to describe key population-level outcomes. Model calibration is the process of incorporating evidence into the model. Calibrated models can be used to make predictions about population trends in disease outcomes and effectiveness of interventions, but calibration can be challenging and computationally expensive. Methods This paper develops a technique for sequentially updating models to take full advantage of earlier calibration results, to ultimately speed up the calibration process. A Bayesian approach to calibration is used because it combines different sources of evidence and enables uncertainty quantification which is appealing for decision-making. We develop this method in order to re-calibrate a microsimulation model for the natural history of colorectal cancer to include new targets that better inform the time from initiation of preclinical cancer to presentation with clinical cancer (sojourn time), because model exploration and validation revealed that more information was needed on sojourn time, and that the predicted percentage of patients with cancers detected via colonoscopy screening was too low. Results The sequential approach to calibration was more efficient than recalibrating the model from scratch. Incorporating new information on the percentage of patients with cancers detected upon screening changed the estimated sojourn time parameters significantly, increasing the estimated mean sojourn time for cancers in the colon and rectum, providing results with more validity. Conclusions A sequential approach to recalibration can be used to efficiently recalibrate a microsimulation model when new information becomes available that requires the original targets to be supplemented with additional targets.

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The Path of Standard Albanian Language Formation

European Journal of Social Sciences Education and Research ◽

10.2478/ejser-2018-0039 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 5 (2) ◽

pp. 106-115

Author(s):

Sindorela Doli Kryeziu

Keyword(s):

Single Unit ◽

Cultural Factors ◽

Language History ◽

Whole Process ◽

History Of ◽

Social And Cultural Factors ◽

Cultural Body ◽

Over Time ◽

Language Literature

Abstract In our paper we will talk about the whole process of standardization of the Albanian language, where it has gone through a long historical route, for almost a century.When talking about standard Albanian language history and according to Albanian language literature, it is often thought that the Albanian language was standardized in the Albanian Language Orthography Congress, held in Tirana in 1972, or after the publication of the Orthographic Rules (which was a project at that time) of 1967 and the decisions of the Linguistic Conference, a conference of great importance that took place in Pristina, in 1968. All of these have influenced chronologically during a very difficult historical journey, until the standardization of the Albanian language.Considering a slightly wider and more complex view than what is often presented in Albanian language literature, we will try to describe the path (history) of the standard Albanian formation under the influence of many historical, political, social and cultural factors that are known in the history of the Albanian people. These factors have contributed to the formation of a common state, which would have, over time, a common standard language.It is fair to think that "all activity in the development of writing and the Albanian language, in the field of standardization and linguistic planning, should be seen as a single unit of Albanian culture, of course with frequent manifestations of specific polycentric organization, either because of divisions within the cultural body itself, or because of the external imposition"(Rexhep Ismajli," In Language and for Language ", Dukagjini, Peja, 1998, pp. 15-18.)

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Transocean and the History of Tax Inversions

Issues in Accounting Education ◽

10.2308/iace-52321 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 34 (1) ◽

pp. 1-12

Author(s):

Susan M. Albring ◽

Randal J. Elder ◽

Mitchell A. Franklin

Keyword(s):

Multinational Corporations ◽

Economic Impacts ◽

Income Taxes ◽

Tax Rates ◽

Corporate Tax ◽

Corporate Income Taxes ◽

History Of ◽

Jobs Act ◽

The U.S ◽

Over Time

ABSTRACT The first tax inversion in 1983 was followed by small waves of subsequent inversion activity, including two inversions completed by Transocean. Significant media and political attention focused on transactions made by U.S. multinational corporations that were primarily designed to reduce U.S. corporate income taxes. As a result, the U.S. government took several actions to limit inversion activity. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) significantly lowered U.S. corporate tax rates and one expected impact of TCJA is a reduction of inversion activity. Students use the Transocean inversions to understand the reasons why companies complete a tax inversion and how the U.S. tax code affects inversion activity. Students also learn about the structure of inversion transactions and how they have changed over time as the U.S. government attempted to limit them. Students also assess the tax and economic impacts of inversion transactions to evaluate tax policy.

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Historical Representations and Recent Changes

10.1093/oso/9780190850524.003.0004 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Jürgen Schaflechner

Keyword(s):

Comparative Analysis ◽

South Asia ◽

Oral Histories ◽

Detailed History ◽

Modern Times ◽

History Of ◽

Historical Representations ◽

The Rich ◽

Many Sources ◽

Over Time

Chapter 3 introduces the tradition of ritual journeys and sacred geographies in South Asia, then hones in on a detailed history of the grueling and elaborate pilgrimage attached to the shrine of Hinglaj. Before the construction of the Makran Coastal Highway the journey to the Goddess’s remote abode in the desert of Balochistan frequently presented a lethally dangerous undertaking for her devotees, the hardships of which have been described by many sources in Bengali, Gujarati, Hindi, Sindhi, and Urdu. This chapter draws heavily from original sources, including travelogues and novels, which are supplanted with local oral histories in order to weave a historical tapestry that displays the rich array of practices and beliefs surrounding the pilgrimage and how they have changed over time. The comparative analysis demonstrates how certain motifs, such as austerity (Skt. tapasyā), remain important themes within the whole Hinglaj genre even in modern times while others have been lost in the contemporary era.

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Introduction

10.1093/oso/9780190862886.003.0001 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Marko Geslani

Keyword(s):

Comparative Study ◽

Royal Power ◽

History Of ◽

Historical Developments ◽

The Comparative Study ◽

The Relationship ◽

Over Time ◽

Indian Religion

The introduction reviews the historiographic problem of the relation between fire sacrifice (yajña) and image worship (pūjā), which have traditionally been seen as opposing ritual structures serving to undergird the distinction of “Vedic” and “Hindu.” Against such an icono- and theocentric approach, it proposes a history of the priesthood in relation to royal power, centering on the relationship between the royal chaplain (purohita) and astrologer (sāṃvatsara) as a crucial, unexplored development in early Indian religion. In order to capture these historical developments, it outlines a method for the comparative study of ritual forms over time.

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The Growth of Historical Method in Tang China

10.1093/oso/9780199236428.003.0002 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Charles Hartman ◽

Anthony DeBlasi

Keyword(s):

Eleventh Century ◽

Seventh Century ◽

Daily Production ◽

Successor State ◽

Historical Method ◽

Official History ◽

History Of ◽

Over Time

This chapter discusses how the full emergence of the centralized, aristocratic state in the seventh century brought about an official historiography that was part of the bureaucracy of that state. Beginning in the Tang, each dynastic court maintained an office of historiography. Over time, a regularized process evolved that, in theory and often in reality, turned the daily production of court bureaucratic documents into an official history of the dynasty. Although this process was ongoing throughout the dynasty, the final, standard ‘dynastic history’ was usually completed after the dynasty's demise by its successor state. Indeed, the very concept of a series of dynastic histories that, taken together, would present an official history of successive, legitimate Chinese states, dates from the eleventh century.

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Phytochemical, Antioxidant and Toxicological Investigation of Morinda citrifolia L. Blossoms

ISRN Analytical Chemistry ◽

10.5402/2012/160871 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 2012 ◽

pp. 1-5 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Shixin Deng ◽

Brett J. West ◽

'Afa K. Palu ◽

C. Jarakae Jensen

Keyword(s):

Antioxidant Activity ◽

Iridoid Glycosides ◽

Radical Scavenging ◽

Morinda Citrifolia ◽

Preliminary Evaluation ◽

Medicinal Uses ◽

Potential Applications ◽

History Of ◽

Toxicological Investigation ◽

Phytochemical Components

Noni blossoms have a long history of medicinal uses in tropical areas. This study was conducted to investigate the major phytochemical components, toxicological properties, and antioxidant activity of noni blossoms. An HPLC-PDA method was developed and validated for the identification and quantification of major components. The major phytochemicals were iridoid glycosides, deacetylasperulosidic acid and asperulosidic acid, and flavonoids, quercetin-3-O-α-L-rhamnopyranosyl-(1→6)-β-D-glucopyranoside and kaempferol-3-O-α-L-rhamnopyranosyl-(1→6)-β-D-glucopyranoside, each present at 3.764, 3.576, 1.513, and 3.096 mg/g, respectively. The aqueous extract of noni blossoms, at 500 μg/mL, exhibited greater antioxidant activity in the 2,2-diphenylpicrylhydrazyl radical scavenging assay than green tea (88.11 ± 0.01% versus 76.60 ± 0.05%). A primary DNA damage test in E. coli PQ37 (SOS-chromotest) and a twenty-four hour brine shrimp toxicity test did not reveal any genotoxic or cytotoxic activity. These results provide a useful reference for the identification of noni blossoms as well as preliminary evaluation of safety and efficacy. Further evaluation of the potential applications of noni blossoms is warranted.

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TIME THROUGH TIME: ITS EVOLUTION THROUGH WESTERN PHILOSOPHY IN SEVEN IDEAS

Think ◽

10.1017/s1477175621000038 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 20 (58) ◽

pp. 23-38

Author(s):

Emily Thomas

Keyword(s):

Western Philosophy ◽

The World ◽

History Of ◽

Over Time

ABSTRACTWhat is time? Just like everything else in the world, our understanding of time has changed continually over time. This article tracks this question through the history of Western philosophy and looks at major answers from the likes of Aristotle, Kant, and McTaggart.

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Anterior approach levator plication for congenital ptosis, absorpable versus non absorpable sutures

European Journal of Ophthalmology ◽

10.1177/11206721211005320 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 112067212110053

Author(s):

Moustafa Salamah ◽

Ashraf Mahrous Eid ◽

Hani Albialy ◽

Sherif Sharaf EL Deen

Keyword(s):

Randomized Study ◽

Early Postoperative Period ◽

Polyglactin 910 ◽

Exclusion Criteria ◽

Congenital Ptosis ◽

History Of ◽

Group A ◽

Group B ◽

Over Time

Purpose: To compare the efficacy of two different suture types in levator plication for correction of congenital ptosis. Subjects and methods: Prospective comparative interventional randomized study involving 42 eyes of 42 patients aged more than 6 years with congenital ptosis and good levator action. The exclusion criteria were as follows: bilateral ptosis, history of previous surgery, fair or poor levator action, and associated other ocular diseases. Patients were randomized into group A, in which double-armed 5/0 polyester Ethibond were used, and group B, in which double-armed 5/0 Coated Vicryl® (polyglactin 910) suture material we used. Outcomes including eyelid height and stability of eyelid height over time were compared with follow-up data. The MRD was 4.05 ± 0.36 mm and 3.95 ± 0.34 after 1 week for both groups A and B, respectively. At the end of study follow up period (24 weeks), the MRD was 3.60 ± 0.42 mm in group A, and 2.52 ± 0.85 mm in group B. Conclusion: No difference in eyelid height between two groups in early postoperative period, but the postoperative eyelid height was more stable over time in the 5/0 polyester Ethibond group (group A) than in the 5/0 Coated Vicryl® (polyglactin 910) group (group B).

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The translation and transmission of ‘diatribal’ verbs in the textual traditions of the Zlatostruj collection

Russian Linguistics ◽

10.1007/s11185-021-09243-4 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Simeon Dekker

Keyword(s):

Middle Ages ◽

Form Equation ◽

Verb Forms ◽

Textual History ◽

History Of ◽

Textual Traditions ◽

The Voice ◽

Over Time ◽

The Middle Ages

AbstractThe ‘diatribe’ is a dialogical mode of exposition, originating in Hellenistic Greek, where the author dramatically performs different voices in a polemical-didactic discourse. The voice of a fictitious opponent is often disambiguated by means of parenthetical verba dicendi, especially φησί(ν). Although diatribal texts were widely translated into Slavic in the Middle Ages, the textual history of the Zlatostruj collection of Chrysostomic homilies especially suits an investigation not only of how Greek ‘diatribal’ verbs were translated, but also how the Slavic verbs were transmitted or developed in different textual traditions. Over time, Slavic redactional activity led to a homogenization of verb forms. The initial variety of the original translation was partly eliminated, and the verb forms "Equation missing" and "Equation missing" became more firmly established as prototypical diatribal formulae. Especially the (increased) use of the 2sg form "Equation missing" has theoretical consequences for the text’s dialogical structure. Thus, an important dialogical component of the diatribe was reinforced in the Zlatostruj’s textual history on Slavic soil.

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