scholarly journals Competing With the Dragon: Employment Effects of Chinese Trade Competition in 17 Sectors Across 18 OECD Countries

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 215-232 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Thewissen ◽  
Olaf van Vliet
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Skilled Workers ◽  
Export Markets ◽  
Skill Levels ◽  
Employment Effects ◽  
Industrialized Democracies ◽  
Chinese Trade ◽  
Pooled Time Series ◽  
Trade Competition

China’s rapid rise on the global economic stage has substantial and unequal employment effects in advanced industrialized democracies given China’s large volume of low-wage labor. Thus far, these effects have not been analyzed in the comparative political economy literature. Building on pooled time-series data, we analyze the effects of Chinese trade competition across 17 sectors in 18 countries. We devote attention to a new channel, increased competition from China in foreign export markets. Our empirical findings reveal overall employment declines in sectors more exposed to Chinese imports. Furthermore, our results suggest that employment effects are not equally shared across skill levels, as the share of hours worked worsens for low-skilled workers.

scholarly journals Loss of Control Prediction for Motorcycles during Emergency Braking Maneuvers Using a Supervised Learning Algorithm

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 1754 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedro Huertas-Leyva ◽  
Giovanni Savino ◽  
Niccolò Baldanzini ◽  
Marco Pierini
Keyword(s):  
Supervised Learning ◽  
Predictive Models ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Performance Indicator ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Front Wheel ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Loss Of Control ◽  
Skill Levels ◽  
Emergency Situations

The most common evasive maneuver among motorcycle riders and one of the most complicated to perform in emergency situations is braking. Because of the inherent instability of motorcycles, motorcycle crashes are frequently caused by loss of control performing braking as an evasive maneuver. Understanding the motion conditions that lead riders to start losing control is essential for defining countermeasures capable of minimizing the risk of this type of crashes. This paper provides predictive models to classify unsafe loss of control braking maneuvers on a straight line before becoming irreversibly unstable. We performed braking maneuver experiments in the field with motorcycle riders facing a simulated emergency scenario. The latter involved a mock-up intersection in which we generated conflict events between the motorcycle ridden by the participants and an oncoming car driven by trained research staff. The data collected comprises 165 braking trials (including 11 trials identified as loss of control) with 13 riders representing four categories of braking skill, ranging from beginner to expert. Three predictive models of loss of control events during braking trials, going from a basic model to a more advanced one, were defined using logistic regressions as supervised learning methods and using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve as a performance indicator. The predictor variables of the models were identified among the parameters of the vehicle kinematics. The best model predicted 100% of the loss of control and 100% of the full control cases. The basic and the more advanced supervised models were adapted for loss of control identification with time series data, and the results detecting in real-time the loss of control events showed excellent performance as well as with the supervised models. The study showed that expert riders may maintain stability under dynamic conditions that normally lead less skilled riders to a loss of control or falling events. The best decision thresholds of the most relevant kinematic parameters to predict loss of control have been defined. The thresholds of parameters that typically characterize the loss of control such as the yaw rate and front-wheel lock duration were dependent on the rider skill levels. The peak-to-root-mean-square ratio of roll acceleration was the most robust parameter for identifying loss of control among all skill levels.

Labour and Citizenship: The Development of Welfare State Regimes

1996 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 203-227 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Boreham ◽  
Richard Hall ◽  
Martin Leet
Keyword(s):  
Social Security ◽  
Welfare State ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Welfare Provision ◽  
Labour Movement ◽  
Political Determinants ◽  
Social Wage ◽  
Pooled Time Series ◽  
Welfare State Regimes

ABSTRACTThis paper is concerned with the political determinants of the significantly different rates of welfare expenditure which characterise advanced capitalist countries. The research concentrates on the connections between the organization and mobilization of a key political actor pursing social wage benefits – the labour movement – and different levels across nations of welfare provision, including expenditure on health, social security consumption expenditure and social security transfers. The paper uses disaggregated, pooled time series data on welfare provision in 15 OECD countries, 1974–1988, to test the association between more comprehensive welfare state regimes and state structures that facilitate the intervention of organized labour movements in the policy process.

Democratic Quality and Human Development in Latin America: 1972–2001

2009 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 297-319 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Altman ◽  
Rossana Castiglioni
Keyword(s):  
Human Development ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
National Study ◽  
Political Rights ◽  
Mortalité Infantile ◽  
Cross National Study ◽  
Pooled Time Series ◽  
Better Than

Abstract.This paper analyzes the connection between democracy and human development. In so doing, it examines two main questions: Are democracies better than non-democracies in achieving human development? Among democracies, is there a direct relationship between the actualization of civil and political rights and human development? In answering these questions, we offer a cross-national study of 18 Latin American countries from 1972 to 2001. We use fixed effect models for analyzing our cross-country, pooled time-series data. The evidence suggests not only that democracies are better than nondemocracies in fostering human development (controlling for wealth), but also that differences in degree of democracy have a significant impact on human development in terms of infant mortality and life expectancy.Résumé.Cet article analyse la relation entre la démocratie et le développement humain et aborde sous cet angle deux questions principales. Les régimes démocratiques assurent-ils mieux que les régimes non démocratiques le développement humain? Au sein des pays ayant un régime démocratique, y a-t-il une relation directe entre l'actualisation des droits civils et politiques et le développement humain? Pour répondre à ces questions, nous observons les données de 18 pays latino-américains sur une période allant de 1972 à 2001. En ce qui concerne la méthodologie, nous avons utilisé un modèle à effets fixes pour analyser nos données chronologiques consolidées regroupant plusieurs pays. Les résultats de notre analyse nous amènent à conclure que non seulement les régimes démocratiques réussissent mieux que les régimes non démocratiques à favoriser le développement humain (en mesurant le niveau de richesse), mais aussi que les différences dans les niveaux de démocratie ont également un effet notable sur le développement humain en termes de mortalité infantile et d'espérance de vie.

Maternal Union Transitions and Household Food Insecurity

2012 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 373-393 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daphne C. Hernandez ◽  
Emily Pressler
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Household Food Insecurity ◽  
Household Food ◽  
Union Transitions ◽  
Pooled Time Series

The study investigates how transitions in maternal unions are related to household food insecurity among a low-income sample using pooled time series data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Survey–Birth Cohort. Pooled time series fixed effects models indicate that transitioning into unions for White and Hispanic households is associated with reductions in household food insecurity compared with White and Hispanic households who experienced no transitions. Furthermore, transitioning into unions for Hispanic households is associated with reductions in household food insecurity status compared with Hispanic households that experienced dissolving unions. Last, results indicate that maternal union transitions are not related to household food insecurity status of Black and Other race and ethnic households. The authors discuss how the findings may be related to socioeconomic factors of race and ethnic households.

scholarly journals Investigating the Dynamic Empirics between Outflow of Remittances and Economic Growth: A Case Study of Saudi Arabia

2018 ◽  
Vol III (I) ◽  
pp. 98-104
Author(s):  
Taseer Salahuddin ◽  
Muhammad Awais ◽  
Asif Raza
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Skilled Workers ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adf Test

To meet the developmental goals and fulfill the domestic labor demand of Saudi Arabia, more than 9.5 million skilled, semi-skilled and highly skilled workers from across the world are imported. After the United States of America (USA), it is the second-largest which is responsible for the larger outflow of remittances. This study is an empirical investigation to explore the impact of remittances outflow on the economic growth activity of Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, it also tests whether this outflow causes inflation in the Saudi economy. For the sack of empirical investigation, this study utilized annual time series data ranging from 1970 to 2017. Before estimating the shortrun and long-run estimates by the application of the AutoRegressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method, time-series properties of data are explored using the Augmented Dicky Fuller (ADF) test.

scholarly journals The Effect of Austerity Packages on Government Popularity During the Great Recession

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Abel Bojar ◽  
Björn Bremer ◽  
Hanspeter Kriesi ◽  
Chendi Wang
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Cumulative Impact ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Pooled Time Series ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Opinion Polls

Abstract During the Great Recession, governments across the continent implemented austerity policies. A large literature claims that such policies are surprisingly popular and have few electoral costs. This article revisits this question by studying the popularity of governments during the economic crisis. The authors assemble a pooled time-series data set for monthly support for ruling parties from fifteen European countries and treat austerity packages as intervention variables to the underlying popularity series. Using time-series analysis, this permits the careful tracking of the impact of austerity packages over time. The main empirical contributions are twofold. First, the study shows that, on average, austerity packages hurt incumbent parties in opinion polls. Secondly, it demonstrates that the magnitude of this electoral punishment is contingent on the economic and political context: in instances of rising unemployment, the involvement of external creditors and high protest intensity, the cumulative impact of austerity on government popularity becomes considerable.

scholarly journals ANALISIS KINERJA EKSPOR KOMODITAS KARET INDONESIA KE AMERIKA LATIN

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-26
Author(s):  
Ghufrani Muharami ◽  
Tanti Novianti
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Natural Rubber ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Export Price ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Export Markets ◽  
Export Destination

ABSTRACTIndonesia’s export dependency on traditional marketcan be minimized by diversifying export markets. Rubber (HS 4001-natural rubber) is one of Indonesia's main export commoditiesto Latin America. Given Indonesia's export growth to Latin America, the region could become potential market for diversifying export markets. This study aimed to analyze the competitiveness of rubber commodities and the factors affecting Indonesian rubber exports to Latin America, using secondary data ie cross section data of 6 export destination countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru) and time series data during 7 years (2009-2015). The analysis tools used RCA, EPD, and gravity model. Based on average RCA value, HS 4001 (natural rubber) Indonesia’s product is able to compete in Latin American market. Meanwhile EPD analysis identified, Indonesia’s main commodities are on rising star, falling star, and retreat positions. Gravity model analysis shows that the factors which influence Indonesia’s export to America Latin are GDP of export destination countries, real exchange rate, export price, and economic distance.

Effect of Economic Conditions on Government Popularity: The Canadian Provincial Case

2006 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-51 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geneviève Tellier
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Provincial Government ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Situation Économique ◽  
Pooled Time Series ◽  
Popularity Function

Abstract.This study tested if the economic voting hypothesis can explain voters' support for provincial governments. Using pooled time-series data from six provinces, a popularity function was developed and tested. Findings indicate that economic conditions have an effect on provincial government popularity. Voters attribute different responsibilities, however, to different political parties. Left-wing incumbent parties are held to be accountable for unemployment, while centrist and right-wing ruling parties are accountable for public deficits. Results also show that provincial government popularity depreciates over time and is correlated to the federal government's own popularity.Résumé.Cette étude a pour objectif de vérifier si l'hypothèse du vote économique peut expliquer la popularité des gouvernements provinciaux auprès des électeurs. Ainsi, une fonction de popularité est présentée, puis testée à l'aide de séries chronologiques provenant de six provinces canadiennes. Les résultats empiriques obtenus indiquent que la situation économique exerce une influence sur la popularité des gouvernements provinciaux. Toutefois, les électeurs attribuent différentes responsabilités à différents partis politiques. Ainsi, ils tiennent les partis de gauche responsables de la situation de l'emploi et les partis de centre et de droite responsables des déficits publics. De plus, les résultats démontrent que la popularité des gouvernements provinciaux se déprécie avec le temps et est corrélée à la popularité du gouvernement fédéral.

The Puzzle of Protest Policing Over Time: Historicizing Repression Research Using Temporal Moving Regressions

2021 ◽  
pp. 000276422110216
Author(s):  
Heidi Reynolds-Stenson ◽  
Jennifer Earl
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Temporal Heterogeneity ◽  
Protest Policing ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Modeling Techniques ◽  
Pooled Time Series ◽  
Historical Periods ◽  
Over Time

Research attempting to predict repression, including the policing of protest, has tended to rely on pooled time series data, which statistically produces coefficients that estimate the average relationship between each variable and the outcome across the entire pooled time period. When relationships are very stable, this statistical assumption, referred to as temporal homogeneity, is unproblematic. But, when enforced without testing, it threatens to artificially “stabilize” temporally heterogenous relationships. In terms of protest policing, this has resulted in relatively ahistorical empirical explanations of protest policing. This article imports modeling techniques from work on identifying historical periods to show how temporal moving regressions can be built to recognize and model temporal heterogeneity in the factors influencing protest policing. We present three important uses for these models: testing exhaustively for temporal heterogeneity in apparently stable findings; testing for temporal heterogeneity that may reconcile otherwise contradictory findings; and inductively combining orthogonal research lines. We demonstrate the utility of each in examinations of protest policing. More generally, we show the potential of temporal moving regressions for uncovering new insights and bringing greater historical sensitivity to research on protest and beyond.

Graphical Exploratory Data Analysis for Categorical Longitudinal and Time Series Data

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen J. Tueller ◽  
Richard A. Van Dorn ◽  
Georgiy Bobashev ◽  
Barry Eggleston
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Exploratory Data Analysis ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Exploratory Data
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