scholarly journals Economic Geography and Economic Voting: Evidence from the US States

2006 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 527-547 ◽  
Author(s):  
MICHAEL EBEID ◽  
JONATHAN RODDEN
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Prices ◽  
State Level ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Government Responsibility ◽  
Gubernatorial Elections ◽  
The Us ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Using Data

If voters use information about the economy to assess the competence of incumbents, a connection between economic conditions and incumbent success should only be discernible in settings where public policy might plausibly affect the economy, and where the assignment of government responsibility is relatively straightforward. Applying this logic to gubernatorial elections in the United States, we test the following hypothesis: the connection between economic conditions and incumbents' vote shares is mediated by the structure of the state economy. This hypothesis is premised on the idea that voters understand that raw macroeconomic aggregates – when driven by factors like weather, commodity prices and federal policy – are poor signals of incumbent performance. Using data from gubernatorial elections held between 1950 and 1998, we show that the connection between macroeconomic indicators and incumbent success is weak in states dominated by natural resources and farming but quite strong elsewhere. This finding helps explain why earlier studies found no connection between state-level economic conditions and gubernatorial elections.

scholarly journals The Partisan Mask: Political Orientation, Collectivism, and Religiosity Predict Mask Use During COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hohjin Im ◽  
Peiyi Wang ◽  
Chuansheng Chen
Keyword(s):  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Orientation ◽  
Third Party ◽  
The Us ◽  
Political Conservatism ◽  
Strong Correlate ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Socioeconomic And Demographic Factors

In the United States, the COVID-19 pandemic became an unconventional vehicle to advance partisan rhetoric and antagonism. Using data available at the individual- (Study 1; N = 4,220), county- (Study 2; n = 3,046), and state-level (n = 49), we found that partisanship and political orientation was a robust and strong correlate of mask use. Political conservatism and Republican partisanship were related to downplaying the severity of COVID-19 and perceiving masks as being ineffective that, in turn, were related to lower mask use. In contrast, we found that counties with majority Democrat partisanship reported greater mask use, controlling for various socioeconomic and demographic factors. Lastly, states with strong cultural collectivism reported greater mask use while those with strong religiosity reported the opposite. States with greater Democrat partisanship and strong cultural collectivism subsequently reported lower COVID-19 deaths, mediated by greater mask use and lower COVID-19 cases, in the five months following the second wave of COVID-19 in the US during the Summer of 2020. Nonetheless, more than the majority for Democrats (91.58%), Republicans (77.52%), and third-party members (82.48%) reported using masks. Implications for findings are discussed.

Trends in Extreme Distress in the United States, 1993–2019

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (10) ◽  
pp. 1538-1544
Author(s):  
David G. Blanchflower ◽  
Andrew J. Oswald
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Time Trends ◽  
Mental Distress ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Us ◽  
Low Education ◽  
Proxy Measure ◽  
Personal Level ◽  
Using Data

Objectives. To investigate changes from 1993 to 2019 in the percentage of US citizens suffering extreme distress. Methods. Using data on 8.1 million randomly sampled US citizens, we created a new proxy measure for exceptional distress (the percentage who reported major mental and emotional problems in all 30 of the last 30 days). We examined time trends for different groups and predictors of distress. Results. The proportion of the US population in extreme distress rose from 3.6% in 1993 to 6.4% in 2019. Among low-education midlife White persons, the percentage more than doubled, from 4.8% to 11.5%. Regression analysis revealed that (1) at the personal level, the strongest statistical predictor of extreme distress was “I am unable to work,” and (2) at the state level, a decline in the share of manufacturing jobs was a predictor of greater distress. Conclusions. Increasing numbers of US citizens report extreme levels of mental distress. This links to poor labor-market prospects. Inequality of distress has also widened. Public Health Implications. Policymakers need to recognize the crisis of an ever-growing group of US citizens in extreme distress.

scholarly journals Associations between Google Search Trends for Symptoms and COVID-19 Confirmed and Death Cases in the United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 4560
Author(s):  
Mostafa Abbas ◽  
Thomas B. Morland ◽  
Eric S. Hall ◽  
Yasser EL-Manzalawy
Keyword(s):  
Functional Data ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Functional Principal Component Analysis ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Dynamic Correlation ◽  
The Us ◽  
Google Search

We utilize functional data analysis techniques to investigate patterns of COVID-19 positivity and mortality in the US and their associations with Google search trends for COVID-19-related symptoms. Specifically, we represent state-level time series data for COVID-19 and Google search trends for symptoms as smoothed functional curves. Given these functional data, we explore the modes of variation in the data using functional principal component analysis (FPCA). We also apply functional clustering analysis to identify patterns of COVID-19 confirmed case and death trajectories across the US. Moreover, we quantify the associations between Google COVID-19 search trends for symptoms and COVID-19 confirmed case and death trajectories using dynamic correlation. Finally, we examine the dynamics of correlations for the top nine Google search trends of symptoms commonly associated with COVID-19 confirmed case and death trajectories. Our results reveal and characterize distinct patterns for COVID-19 spread and mortality across the US. The dynamics of these correlations suggest the feasibility of using Google queries to forecast COVID-19 cases and mortality for up to three weeks in advance. Our results and analysis framework set the stage for the development of predictive models for forecasting COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths using historical data and Google search trends for nine symptoms associated with both outcomes.

scholarly journals Urban Accounting and Welfare

2013 ◽  
Vol 103 (6) ◽  
pp. 2296-2327 ◽  
Author(s):  
Klaus Desmet ◽  
Esteban Rossi-Hansberg
Keyword(s):  
Large Population ◽  
The United States ◽  
Welfare Effects ◽  
City Size ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
The Us ◽  
City Size Distribution ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Main Components ◽  
The City

We use a simple theory of a system of cities to decompose the determinants of the city size distribution into three main components: efficiency, amenities, and frictions. Higher efficiency and better amenities lead to larger cities but also to greater frictions through congestion and other negative effects of agglomeration. Using data on MSAs in the United States, we estimate these city characteristics. Eliminating variation in any of them leads to large population reallocations, but modest welfare effects. We apply the same methodology to Chinese cities and find welfare effects that are many times larger than those in the US. (JEL H71, O18, P25, R11, R23, R41)

scholarly journals FINANCIAL SECTOR INTERCONNECTEDNESS AND MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION

2018 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 1074-1101
Author(s):  
Alessandro Barattieri ◽  
Maya Eden ◽  
Dalibor Stevanovic
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
The United States ◽  
Structural Vector Autoregression ◽  
Net Worth ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Using Data

We present a stylized model that illustrates how interbank trading can reduce the sensitivity of lending to entrepreneurs' net worth, thus affecting the transmission mechanism of monetary policy through the credit channel. We build a model-consistent measure of interconnectedness and document that, in the United States, this measure has increased substantially during the period 1952–2016. Finally, interacting the measure of interconnectedness in a structural vector autoregression and a factor-augmented vector autoregression for the US economy, we find that the impulse responses of several real and financial variables to monetary policy shocks are dampened as interconnectedness increases. We confirm the same result using data from 10 Euro area countries for the period 1999–2016.

scholarly journals International Religious Freedom Promotion and US Foreign Policy

Religions ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 260 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lee Marsden
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Religious Freedom ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Human Right ◽  
National Interests ◽  
Politics And Religion ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Political Background

The freedom to practice one’s religious belief is a fundamental human right and yet, for millions of people around the world, this right is denied. Yearly reports produced by the US State Department, United States Commission on International Religious Freedom, Open Doors International, Aid to the Church in Need and Release International reveal a disturbing picture of increased religious persecution across much of the world conducted at individual, community and state level conducted by secular, religious, terrorist and state actors. While religious actors both contribute to persecution of those of other faiths and beliefs and are involved in peace and reconciliation initiatives, the acceptance of the freedom to practice one’s faith, to disseminate that faith and to change one’s faith and belief is fundamental to considerations of the intersection of peace, politics and religion. In this article, I examine the political background of the United States’ promotion of international religious freedom, and current progress on advancing this under the Trump administration. International Religious Freedom (IRF) is contentious, and seen by many as the advancement of US national interests by other means. This article argues that through an examination of the accomplishments and various critiques of the IRF programme it is possible, and desirable, to discover what works, and where further progress needs to be made, in order to enable people around the world to enjoy freedom of thought, conscience and religion.

scholarly journals Crisis Standards of Care Implementation at the State Level in the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (6) ◽  
pp. 599-603 ◽  
Author(s):  
Colton Margus ◽  
Ritu R. Sarin ◽  
Michael Molloy ◽  
Gregory R. Ciottone
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
The State ◽  
Pediatric Care ◽  
Standards Of Care ◽  
Institute Of Medicine ◽  
Full Spectrum ◽  
The Us

AbstractIntroduction:In 2009, the Institute of Medicine published guidelines for implementation of Crisis Standards of Care (CSC) at the state level in the United States (US). Based in part on the then concern for H1N1 pandemic, there was a recognized need for additional planning at the state level to maintain health system preparedness and conventional care standards when available resources become scarce. Despite the availability of this framework, in the years since and despite repeated large-scale domestic events, implementation remains mixed.Problem:Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) rejuvenates concern for how health systems can maintain quality care when faced with unrelenting burden. This study seeks to outline which states in the US have developed CSC and which areas of care have thus far been addressed.Methods:An online search was conducted for all 50 states in 2015 and again in 2020. For states without CSC plans online, state officials were contacted by email and phone. Public protocols were reviewed to assess for operational implementation capabilities, specifically highlighting guidance on ventilator use, burn management, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, pediatric standards, and reliance on influenza planning.Results:Thirty-six states in the US were actively developing (17) or had already developed (19) official CSC guidance. Fourteen states had no publicly acknowledged effort. Eleven of the 17 public plans had updated within five years, with a majority addressing ventilator usage (16/17), influenza planning (14/17), and pediatric care (15/17), but substantially fewer addressing care for burn patients (9/17).Conclusion:Many states lacked publicly available guidance on maintaining standards of care during disasters, and many states with specific care guidelines had not sufficiently addressed the full spectrum of hazard to which their health care systems remain vulnerable.

Extractives transparency gathers pace in the West

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Securities And Exchange Commission ◽  
Good Time ◽  
Power Structures ◽  
Financial Transfers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us

Subject Developments on transparency in the extractives sector. Significance Transparency legislation on the extractives sector progressed in December 2015 when the US Securities and Exchange Commission published a revised proposal to enhance the transparency of extractive (ie, mining and oil and gas) industries' payments to governments in producing countries. The aim is to provide information on financial transfers which can then be used by civil society, media and other stakeholders to hold those governments to account. The United States was a pioneer in this area, but litigation against its original initiative delayed its progress. Impacts Low commodity prices shift the balance of power from producing countries to consuming ones. That makes producer countries more susceptible to pressures for reform and may be a good time to push for greater transparency. However, opaque and inaccessible power structures in producer states could still limit NGO capacity to use more data to reduce corruption. A test of this will be whether the issue of resource transparency gains traction within the G20.

Prospects for the global economy in 2018

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Industrial Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Open Markets

Subject PROSPECTS 2018: Global economy Significance Global GDP growth is likely to edge higher in 2018 as trade, investment and employment expand. However, monetary policy is gradually tightening, fiscal expansion is limited and there is little chance of a repeat of the surprise boost from trade seen in 2017 or a recovery in productivity. Inflation may remain obdurately low in the United States, Japan and the euro-area but not sufficiently to deter the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the ECB from gently reeling in their bond-buying programmes. Modestly higher commodity prices should support economic recovery in resource producers. Impacts The timing of elections in the United States, Canada and Mexico may prolong the NAFTA trade talks into 2019 or beyond. China will battle any US attempts to constrain its innovation and access to technology, which it sees as key to its rebalancing. Technological progress and more open markets exacerbate the unpredictability of jobs and wages, but policy will increasingly address this. Automation means the job intensive low-cost industrial growth engine is now less effective; developing countries must consider new models. A better balance of power between multinationals, international organisations and governments will be key to global tax cooperation.

scholarly journals Policy Pathways to Gender Power: State-Level Effects on the US Division of Housework

2007 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 239-260 ◽  
Author(s):  
LYNN PRINCE COOKE
Keyword(s):  
Political Institutions ◽  
Child Support ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
State Level ◽  
Labour Force Participation ◽  
The Us ◽  
Division Of Housework ◽  
Gender Power ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Laws And Policies

Across industrialised countries, men contribute one-third of the household time in domestic tasks despite women's rising labour force participation. Like a Russian doll, however, the private sphere of the household nests within broader socio-political institutions. Proposed here is a relative gender power model incorporating both individual and policy-derived resources to explain differences in the division of household tasks. The sensitivity of the model to state-level policy differences is tested using data from the second wave of the US National Survey of Families and Households. After controlling for women's individual resources, laws and policies enhancing women's economic circumstances in the event of a divorce such as receipt of transfers, child support and property settlement predict that men in couples perform a greater share of domestic tasks. This evidence confirms that the state can ameliorate gender hierarchies and inequality.

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