Provocation and the Strategy of Terrorist and Guerrilla Attacks

2015 ◽  
Vol 70 (1) ◽  
pp. 133-173 ◽  
Author(s):  
David B. Carter
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Model ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Model Specification ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Specification Tests ◽  
State Response ◽  
Target Theory ◽  
Response Groups ◽  
Using Data ◽  
State Responses

AbstractViolent nonstate groups are usually weaker than the states they target. Theory suggests that groups carefully condition their choice of tactics on anticipated state response. Yet scholars know very little about whether and how groups strategically plan attacks in anticipation of state response. Scholars do not know if and under what conditions groups employ violent tactics to provoke or avoid a forceful state response, although extant theory is consistent with both possibilities. Relatedly, there is little systematic evidence about why groups choose terrorist or guerrilla tactics and how this choice relates to anticipated state response. I develop a theoretical and empirical model of the interaction between groups and states that generates unique evidence on all three fronts. Using data on attacks in Western Europe from 1950 to 2004, I show that guerrilla attacks are sometimes associated with provoking forceful state response, whereas terrorist attacks are generally associated with avoiding forceful response. Groups effectively choose their tactics to avoid forceful state responses that are too damaging for themselves but provoke forceful responses that disproportionately harm civilians. These findings survive several robustness and model specification tests.

scholarly journals Respecting and Ensuring Rights

2019 ◽  
pp. 16-54
Author(s):  
Sukhwant Dhaliwal
Keyword(s):  
Violence Against Women ◽  
Final Section ◽  
State Intervention ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Human Right ◽  
State Response ◽  
Important Concern ◽  
Women And Girls ◽  
Gender Perspectives ◽  
State Responses

This article revisits the multiple terrorist attacks that took place in England in 2017 and, through a closer examination of the narratives of the eight male perpetrators of these attacks, it draws the readers’ attention to the flaws in state and non-state responses to fundamentalist mobilisations. The article works with Karima Bennoune’s (2008) radical universalist approach to highlight the importance of a human rights framework for tackling fundamentalism. This is positioned against a neo-liberal and nationalist state response and a reactive left/anti-racist response in order to make visible the connections between terror and torture and also the myopia of a response that emphasises an obligation  to either respect or ensure rights rather than both simultaneously. This is particularly underlined within the final section where a discussion of gender perspectives on tackling fundamentalism distinguishes between the human right to security, an important concern for feminists involved in ending violence against women and girls, and the government’s protection of it’s own interests through securitisation. In keeping with the conjoined objectives of the piece, the final section offers a simultaneous critique of non-state actors for whom every state intervention on fundamentalism, and every feminist engagement with the state, is sullied by the accusation of ‘securitisation’.

scholarly journals Terrorism, Trust and Tourism

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 25
Author(s):  
Susanne Jensen ◽  
Gert Tinggaard Svendsen
Keyword(s):  
Competitive Advantage ◽  
Comparative Studies ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Social Trust ◽  
Interesting Case ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Future Research ◽  
The World ◽  
Quantitative And Qualitative Methods ◽  
Country People

How does terrorism affect social trust and tourism? The rising number of terrorist attacks in Western Europe has caused safety problems not only for local citizens but also for tourists. In fact, terrorists challenge the formal violence monopoly of the state thus creating a sense of anarchy and distrust. Social trust is about trusting strangers, so when less predictable behaviour occurs in, a given country, people become more careful as they tend to trust most other people less. An interesting case for future research is Scandinavia as the level of terrorism is still low and, at the same time, Scandinavia can record most social trust in the world meaning a competitive advantage when attracting tourists. Arguably, a double dividend is created from fighting terrorism, namely more social trust accumulated and more tourists attracted. Future research should therefore try to further test our model by both quantitative and qualitative methods, for example by undertaking extensive comparative studies between Scandinavia and other countries with more terrorism and less trust.

Democracy, reputation for resolve, and civil conflict

2021 ◽  
pp. 002234332110246
Author(s):  
Casey Crisman-Cox
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Model ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Statistical Approach ◽  
Dynamic Game ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Regime Type ◽  
Credibility Theory ◽  
Civil Conflicts ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Open Question

There is a long-running disagreement about how regime type affects a country’s ability to project resolve. Specifically, there is an open question about whether being a democracy helps or hurts a country’s reputation for resolve. I consider this question by directly estimating a state’s reputation for resolve using a unified theoretical and statistical approach. To be precise, I derive an empirical model from a dynamic game of continuous-time bargaining where each side fights in order to build a reputation for resolve. I then fit this model using data on the duration and termination of civil conflicts between 1946 and 2009. I find that while governments tend to have stronger reputations for resolve than the rebels they face, democracies are seen as much less likely to be resolved both prior to and during conflict than their autocratic counterparts. Likewise, democracies are more likely to end a conflict by making a policy change in favor of the rebels than autocracies. Despite these differences, both democracies and autocracies experience a discrete increase in their reputations for resolve once conflict begins, with democracies receiving a much larger boost. As such, these findings contrast with a large literature on democratic credibility theory, while simultaneously providing evidence consistent with some of the logic behind democratic credibility theory.

scholarly journals Global, regional, and national burdens of bladder cancer in 2017: estimates from the 2017 global burden of disease study

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hairong He ◽  
Hongjun Xie ◽  
Yule Chen ◽  
Chengzhuo Li ◽  
Didi Han ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bladder Cancer ◽  
Latin America ◽  
Burden Of Disease ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Global Burden Of Disease ◽  
Global Burden ◽  
Disability Adjusted Life ◽  
Life Years ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Disease Study

Abstract Background The aim of this study is to describe the prevalence and mortality of bladder cancer (BCa) using data obtained in the Global Burden of Disease study performed in 2017 (GBD 2017). Methods Data on BCa for 2017, including prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), were obtained from GBD 2017 at the global, regional, and national levels. We also analyzed the association of BCa burden with the country development level. Results There were 2.63 million BCa cases estimated from the GBD 2017 data, with 200,000 persons dying of BCa, resulting in 3.60 million DALYs in 2017. The age-standardized prevalence (ASP) of BCa was 32.91/100,000 persons, and age-standardized death rate (ASDR) was 2.57/100,000 persons. The ASP and ASDR of BCa were higher in males than in females, and higher in people older than 60 years. The ASP and ASDR of BCa were higher in Western Europe and Central Europe than in South Asia, Andean Latin America, and Central Latin America, and higher in countries with a higher sociodemographic index (SDI). Correlation analysis identified that the ASP and ASDR of BCa were positively correlated with the country SDI (P < 0.0001 and ρ = 0.68 for ASP, and P = 0.0048 and ρ = 0.20 for ASDR). In addition, 33.72% deaths and 36.80% DALYs caused by BCa could be attributed to smoking globally. Conclusion The prevalence and mortality of BCa were very high in 2017, especially in high-SDI countries. Smoking-cessation strategies should be strengthened to control the burden associated with BCa.

scholarly journals Responding to terrorism with peace, love and solidarity: ‘Je suis Charlie’, ‘Peace’ and ‘I Heart MCR’

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 167-187 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clara Eroukhmanoff
Keyword(s):  
Western Europe ◽  
Positive Emotions ◽  
Gilles Deleuze ◽  
Affective Responses ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Francis Bacon ◽  
Iconic Representations ◽  
The Invisible

This article explores the affective responses to terrorist attacks in Western Europe, visually manifested through the memes ‘Je suis Charlie’, ‘Peace’, and ‘I heart MCR’ . By invoking the universal peace and solidarity signs, these responses mobilised an iconic repertoire that framed the responses as peaceful retaliations to terrorist attacks in solidarity with the victims and in that respect, helped to visualise and foster positive emotions in times of crisis. Indeed, the memes were articulated as the antidote (love) that can defy the brutality and hatred of terrorists. This article challenges this view in two ways. First, the article argues that the visual interventions constitute technologies of emotional governance that police subjects about whom to love, to whom solidarity should be extended and when and where those feelings should be displayed. Second, drawing on the work of Gilles Deleuze on Francis Bacon, this article demonstrates that by propagating iconic representations of solidarity, peace and love, ‘meming’ attends to the logic of the sensational and the cliché and thereby falls short of contesting terrorism through sensing peace, love and solidarity. Finally, the article addresses how the violence of sensation can release the invisible forces that can be made productive in celebrating life.

A minimalist macroparasite diversity in the round goby of the Upper Rhine reduced to an exotic acanthocephalan lineage

Parasitology ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (8) ◽  
pp. 1020-1026 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gwendoline M. David ◽  
Cybill Staentzel ◽  
Olivier Schlumberger ◽  
Marie-Jeanne Perrot-Minnot ◽  
Jean-Nicolas Beisel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Western Europe ◽  
Nucleotide Diversity ◽  
Round Goby ◽  
Haplotype Diversity ◽  
Neogobius Melanostomus ◽  
Molecular Barcoding ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Upper Rhine ◽  
Invasion Corridor

AbstractThe round goby, Neogobius melanostomus, is a Ponto-Caspian fish considered as an invasive species in a wide range of aquatic ecosystems. To understand the role that parasites may play in its successful invasion across Western Europe, we investigated the parasitic diversity of the round goby along its invasion corridor, from the Danube to the Upper Rhine rivers, using data from literature and a molecular barcoding approach, respectively. Among 1666 parasites extracted from 179 gobies of the Upper Rhine, all of the 248 parasites barcoded on the c oxidase subunit I gene were identified as Pomphorhynchus laevis. This lack of macroparasite diversity was interpreted as a loss of parasites along its invasion corridor without spillback compensation. The genetic diversity of P. laevis was represented by 33 haplotypes corresponding to a haplotype diversity of 0·65 ± 0·032, but a weak nucleotide diversity of 0·0018 ± 0·00015. Eight of these haplotypes were found in 88·4% of the 248 parasites. These haplotypes belong to a single lineage so far restricted to the Danube, Vistula and Volga rivers (Eastern Europe). This result underlines the exotic status of this Ponto-Caspian lineage in the Upper Rhine, putatively disseminated by the round goby along its invasion corridor.

A General Framework for Estimation and Inference of Geographically Weighted Regression Models: 1. Location-Specific Kernel Bandwidths and a Test for Locational Heterogeneity

2002 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 733-754 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio Páez ◽  
Takashi Uchida ◽  
Kazuaki Miyamoto
Keyword(s):  
Geographically Weighted Regression ◽  
Degrees Of Freedom ◽  
Likelihood Function ◽  
Error Variance ◽  
Model Specification ◽  
Weighted Regression ◽  
Regularity Conditions ◽  
Local Regression ◽  
Specification Tests ◽  
Geographically Weighted Regression Model

Geographically weighted regression (GWR) has been proposed as a technique to explore spatial parametric nonstationarity. The method has been developed mainly along the lines of local regression and smoothing techniques, a strategy that has led to a number of difficult questions about the regularity conditions of the likelihood function, the effective number of degrees of freedom, and in general the relevance of extending the method to derive inference and model specification tests. In this paper we argue that placing GWR within a different statistical context, as a spatial model of error variance heterogeneity, or what might be termed locational heterogeneity, solves these difficulties. A maximum-likelihood-based framework for estimation and inference of a general geographically weighted regression model is presented that leads to a method to estimate location-specific kernel bandwidths. Moreover, a test for locational heterogeneity is derived and its use exemplified with a case study.

scholarly journals Homicide clearance in Western Europe

2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marieke Liem ◽  
Karoliina Suonpää ◽  
Martti Lehti ◽  
Janne Kivivuori ◽  
Sven Granath ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Clearance Rates ◽  
Homicide Rates ◽  
Coding Schemes ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
Homicide Clearance ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Event Based

This study provides an overview of homicide clearance in four West European countries: Finland, the Netherlands, Sweden and Switzerland. Using data from the European Homicide Monitor, employing similar definitions and uniform coding schemes, this study allowed for unique cross-country comparisons in factors influencing differences in homicide clearance rates. Findings based on homicides occurring in the period 2009–14 revealed overall low homicide rates in all countries, with a wide variety in homicide clearance rates, ranging from 77 percent in the Netherlands to 98 percent in Finland. Results further showed that both event-based as well as victim-based characteristics significantly influenced the likelihood of homicide clearance, suggesting that homicide clearance rates can, for a large part, be attributed to the prevalent types of homicide in each of these European countries.

Trigonometric Collocation for Computation of Steady State Responses of Cracked Structures

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bakeer Bakeer ◽  
Oleg Shiryayev ◽  
Ammaar Tahir
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Fatigue Cracks ◽  
Equations Of Motion ◽  
Dynamic Responses ◽  
Vibration Period ◽  
State Response ◽  
Trigonometric Collocation ◽  
Steady State Responses ◽  
Cracked Structures ◽  
State Responses

Development of vibration-based structural health monitoring techniques requires the use of various computational methods to predict dynamic responses of damaged structures. The method described in this work can be used for prediction of steady state harmonic responses for structures with fatigue cracks and may have several advantages over alternative techniques. The method appears to be relatively easy to implement and computationally inexpensive. The steady state response of the system at a given number of time points distributed over one vibration period is represented in terms of Fourier series containing higher frequency harmonics. Equations of motion are formulated in the form that allows for easy computation of Fourier coefficients for all terms in the series. Iterative procedure is used for determining the time of stiffness change in order to capture bilinear dynamic behavior. We present results of initial investigation by applying the method to a model of a cantilever beam with a crack.

scholarly journals Yield Prediction of Renewable Diesel From Hydrocracking Process as a Function of Pressure and Temperature Using Analytical Semi Empirical Model (ASEM)

2018 ◽  
Vol 67 ◽  
pp. 02019
Author(s):  
Handrianto Wijaya ◽  
Bambang Heru Susanto
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Model ◽  
The Other ◽  
Yield Prediction ◽  
Trial And Error ◽  
Time Cost ◽  
Renewable Diesel ◽  
Renewable Fuel ◽  
Hydrocracking Process ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Semi Empirical

The development of renewable fuels from biomass is very rapid, and becomes the main alternative to replace petroleum-derived fuels that are limited in stock. There has been a lot of experiments to optimize the production of renewable diesel, but it takes time, cost and a lot of trial and error in order to produce a good result. On the other hand, optimization using simulation is more cost and time effective. One of the processes in the production of this renewable fuel is hydrocracking. This experiment aims to study the effect of pressure and temperature in the hydrocracking process using the Analytical Semi Empirical Model (ASEM) method in representing the yield of the product. Mathematical models will be modified and validated using data from existing research. The results show that Analytical Semi Empirical Model can be used to predict the yield of product from hydrocracking, with all of the models show R2 higher than 0.95 and SSE lower than 3.

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