When Marriage Gets Hard: Intra-Coalition Conflict and Electoral Accountability

2021 ◽  
pp. 001041402110243
Author(s):  
Carolina Plescia ◽  
Sylvia Kritzinger
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Political Representation ◽  
Economic Evaluations ◽  
Responsibility Attribution ◽  
Electoral Accountability ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Coalition Governments ◽  
Level Data ◽  
European Election ◽  
Election Studies

Combining individual-level with event-level data across 25 European countries and three sets of European Election Studies, this study examines the effect of conflict between parties in coalition government on electoral accountability and responsibility attribution. We find that conflict increases punishment for poor economic performance precisely because it helps clarify to voters parties’ actions and responsibilities while in office. The results indicate that under conditions of conflict, the punishment is equal for all coalition partners when they share responsibility for poor economic performance. When there is no conflict within a government, the effect of poor economic evaluations on vote choice is rather low, with slightly more punishment targeted to the prime minister’s party. These findings have important implications for our understanding of electoral accountability and political representation in coalition governments.

scholarly journals The Bright Side of the Economic Crisis: The Attribution of Political Responsibilities in Hard Times

2016 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 151-170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guillermo Cordero ◽  
Ignacio Lago
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Responsibility Attribution ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Current Economic Crisis ◽  
Self Interest ◽  
Hard Times ◽  
Bright Side ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Political Decisions

AbstractWe examine the impact of the current economic crisis on the accuracy of responsibility attribution between levels of government within states. Using individual-level data from Spain, we show that learning about responsibility attribution depends on the saliency of the issue (in our study, unemployment) and economic self-interest. The (unintended) positive consequence of economic crisis is that citizens are now more able to accurately attribute the responsibility for political decisions than some years ago. Learning is particularly significant among those individuals more affected by the economic crisis.

The Electoral Allure of Direct Democracy: The Effect of Initiative Salience on Voting, 1990-96

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 168-181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J. Lacey
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Direct Democracy ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
The Other ◽  
Ballot Initiatives ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Election Studies

Do salient ballot initiatives stimulate voting? Recent studies have shown that initiatives increase voter turnout, but some methodological concerns still linger. These studies have either relied solely on aggregate data to make inferences about individual-level behavior or used a flawed measure of initiative salience. Using individual-level data from the National Election Studies, I find that ballot question salience indeed stimulated voting in the midterm elections of 1990 and 1994. In an election with moderately salient ballot questions, a person's likelihood of voting can increase by as much as 30 percent in a midterm election. On the other hand, consistent with most prior research, I find no statistically significant relationship between ballot question salience and voting in presidential elections.

The Impact of State Television on Voter Turnout

2016 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 257-278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rune J. Sørensen
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
The United States ◽  
Causal Effects ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
1960S And 1970S ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
New Tv ◽  
Election Studies ◽  
The Impact

In an influential study, Matthew Gentzkow found that the introduction of TV in the United States caused a major drop in voter turnout. In contrast, the current analysis shows that public broadcasting TV can increase political participation. Detailed data on the rollout of television in Norway in the 1960s and 1970s are combined with municipality-level data on voter turnout over a period of four decades. The date of access to TV signals was mostly a side effect of geography, a feature that is used to identify causal effects. Additional analyses exploit individual-level panel data from three successive election studies. The new TV medium instantly became a major source of political information. It triggered political interest and caused a modest, but statistically significant, increase in voter turnout.

Smartphones and Their Increased Importance in U.S. Presidential Elections

2019 ◽  
pp. 1203-1223
Author(s):  
Ramona Sue McNeal ◽  
Mary Schmeida ◽  
Lisa Dotterweich Bryan
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Social Networking Sites ◽  
Internet Access ◽  
Multivariate Regression Analysis ◽  
The Internet ◽  
Political Discussion ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Election Studies ◽  
The Relationship

Early researchers had predicted that the Internet might help to encourage political participation through its ability to make political information more accessible. Unfortunately, disparities in Internet access made it unlikely that the Internet would have much of an impact on voter turnout. Telecommunication technology has evolved and among these new advances is smartphones, which help to increase Internet access. The purpose of this chapter is to examine this argument by exploring the relationship between smartphone ownership and voting. This topic is explored using multivariate regression analysis and individual level data from the 2012 American National Election Studies. Findings suggest that smartphones are helping to increase voter turnout through their ability to facilitate other online activities such as visiting candidate websites and taking part in political discussion through social networking sites.

Smartphones and their Increased Importance in U.S. Presidential Elections

2017 ◽  
pp. 283-303
Author(s):  
Ramona Sue McNeal ◽  
Mary Schmeida ◽  
Lisa Dotterweich Bryan
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Social Networking Sites ◽  
Internet Access ◽  
Multivariate Regression Analysis ◽  
The Internet ◽  
Political Discussion ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Election Studies ◽  
The Relationship

Early researchers had predicted that the Internet might help to encourage political participation through its ability to make political information more accessible. Unfortunately, disparities in Internet access made it unlikely that the Internet would have much of an impact on voter turnout. Telecommunication technology has evolved and among these new advances is smartphones, which help to increase Internet access. The purpose of this chapter is to examine this argument by exploring the relationship between smartphone ownership and voting. This topic is explored using multivariate regression analysis and individual level data from the 2012 American National Election Studies. Findings suggest that smartphones are helping to increase voter turnout through their ability to facilitate other online activities such as visiting candidate websites and taking part in political discussion through social networking sites.

Inflation, Unemployment and Canadian Federal Voting Behaviour

1988 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 569-584 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keith Archer ◽  
Marquis Johnson
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Voting Behaviour ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Over Time

AbstractIdentifying the effect of macro-economic performance on levels of partisan support in Canada has attracted considerable attention. Findings in Canada, as elsewhere, often diverge depending upon whether aggregate or individual-level data are used. This study employs individual-level data from 1974 to 1984 to examine the effect of changes in unemployment and inflation on support for the various parties. Controlling for partisan and leader effects, we find that the electoral effect of inflation and unemployment is highly variable over time, and is in an unstable partisan direction. Indeed, at times the partisan effect was perverse.

Coordination and Policy Moderation at Midterm

2002 ◽  
Vol 96 (1) ◽  
pp. 141-157 ◽  
Author(s):  
WALTER R. MEBANE ◽  
JASJEET S. SEKHON
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Policy Positions ◽  
Stochastic Choice ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Ideal Points ◽  
Election Studies

Eligible voters have been coordinating their turnout and vote decisions for the House of Representatives in midterm elections. Coordination is a noncooperative rational expectations equilibrium. Stochastic choice models estimated using individual-level data from U.S. National Election Studies surveys of the years 1978–1998 support the coordinating model and reject a nonstrategic model. The coordinating model shows that many voters have incentives to change their votes between the presidential year and midterm after learning the outcome of the presidential election. But this mechanism alone does not explain the size of midterm cycles. The largest source of loss of support for the president's party at midterm is a regular pattern in which the median differences between the voters' ideal points and the parties' policy positions have become less favorable for the president's party than they were at the time of the presidential election (nonvoters show the same pattern). The interelection changes are not consistent with the theory of surge and decline.

Systematic Review and Empirical Comparison of Contemporaneous EQ-5D and SF-6D Group Mean Scores

2011 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. E34-E44 ◽  
Author(s):  
David G. T. Whitehurst ◽  
Stirling Bryan ◽  
Martyn Lewis
Keyword(s):  
Evaluation Research ◽  
Economic Evaluations ◽  
Health State ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Related Quality ◽  
Health Related ◽  
Utility Scale ◽  
The Relationship

Background. Group mean estimates and their underlying distributions are the focus of assessment for cost and outcome variables in economic evaluation. Research focusing on the comparability of alternative preference-based measures of health-related quality of life has typically focused on analysis of individual-level data within specific clinical specialties or community-based samples. Purpose. To explore the relationship between group mean scores for the EQ-5D and SF-6D across the utility scoring range. Methods. Studies were identified via a systematic search of 13 online electronic databases, a review of reference lists of included papers, and hand searches of key journals. Studies were included if they reported contemporaneous mean EQ-5D and SF-6D health state scores. All (sub)group comparisons of group mean EQ-5D and SF-6D scores identifiable from text, tables, or figures were extracted from identified studies. A total of 921 group mean comparisons were extracted from 56 studies. The nature of the relationship between the paired scores was examined using ranked scatter graphs and analysis of agreement. Results. Systematic differences in group mean estimates were observed at both ends of the utility scale. At the lower (upper) end of the scale, the SF-6D (EQ-5D) provides higher mean utility estimates. Conclusions. These findings show that group mean EQ-5D and SF-6D scores are not directly comparable. This raises serious concerns about the cross-study comparability of economic evaluations that differ in the choice of preference-based measures, although the review focuses on 2 of the available instruments only. Further work is needed to address the practical implications of noninterchangeable utility estimates for cost-per-QALY estimates and decision making.

War Deaths Can Increase Support for Incumbents

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Peter John Loewen ◽  
Daniel Rubenson
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
District Level ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Election Studies ◽  
Effects Of War

Abstract War comes with terrible costs both in terms of money and lives. Do voters punish incumbents for these costs? Much of the existing literature on the effects of war deaths on public opinion toward incumbents and their war efforts suggests that the answer is yes. We test this proposition on data from a non-US case: Canada's war in Afghanistan. We estimate models of the effect of local war deaths on incumbent support using individual-level panel data from the 2006, 2008 and 2011 Canadian Election Studies and aggregate district-level data from the 2008 and 2011 general elections. In none of our models do we find support for the conclusion that war deaths decrease support for candidates of the governing party. Instead, we find evidence at both the individual and district levels that support for Conservative party candidates is higher in districts that experienced war deaths.

Challenges to multiparty governments

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (6) ◽  
pp. 793-803 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heike Klüver ◽  
Jae-Jae Spoon
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Political Representation ◽  
Party Competition ◽  
Combine Data ◽  
Coalition Governments ◽  
Issue Attention ◽  
The Comparative Study ◽  
Election Studies ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Shed Light

How does governing in coalitions affect coalition parties’ responsiveness to voters? In this article, we seek to understand the relationship between political parties’ participation in multiparty governments and their responsiveness to voters. We argue that the extent to which coalition parties respond to policy priorities of voters is influenced by the divisiveness of policy issues within the cabinet and the ministerial responsibility for policies. To test our hypotheses, we combine data on the issue attention of 55 coalition parties from the Comparative Manifestos Project with data on government composition and data on the policy priorities of voters from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems and various election studies in 45 elections across 16 European countries from 1972 to 2011. While we find that intra-cabinet divisiveness decreases coalition parties’ responsiveness, we find no effect for portfolio responsibility. Our findings shed light on the relationship between party competition and coalition governments and its implications for political representation.

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