Observations Arising from “The Graduation of Pensioners' and of Annuitants' Mortality Experience 1967-70”

1977 ◽  
Vol 36 ◽  
pp. 161-202 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. S. Archer ◽  
R. J. Hyder ◽  
J. J. McCutcheon ◽  
J. C. McIntosh ◽  
W. F. Scott

SynopsisWritten concurrently with the first item in C.M.I.R.3, the Faculty of Actuaries Mortality Research Group's paper determines a range within which mortality rates of Life Office Pensioners may be expected to change in the foreseeable future. Comparisons are made between the observed changes in pensioner mortality rates and those observed for the population of England and Wales, and reference is also made to the trends of mortality rates assumed in recent British population projections. From these considerations two forecasts are made, based upon “optimistic” and “pessimistic” future mortality assumptions, between which it is expected the actual future rates of mortality change will lie.In the second part of the paper the financial effects of the range of forecasts are set out, when used to project the graduated pensioner Mortality Experience 1967-70 (C.M.I.R., 2, 57). The implications are illustrated in the context of two model funds, one based upon life offices' data, and the other based upon a non-insured pension scheme for which the contribution rates vary in accordance with the levels of future expected pensioner mortality.

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 222-235 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mary Hall ◽  
Linda Daly

AbstractRetirements from the workforce can be split between those who are forced to retire early specifically for health reasons referred to as ill-health retirements and all other retirements referred to as normal-health retirements. Rates of ill-health retirement increase with age and are higher for females than males. Consequently, the mortality experience of ill-health retirement pensioners will become more important in the future as pension schemes increase their normal retirement age in line with increases in life expectancy and the proportion of women in the workforce and therefore in occupational pension schemes increases. This paper seeks to model the mortality of ill-health retirements from occupational pension schemes in the United Kingdom in the period immediately following retirement (reverse select mortality) and over the longer term (ultimate mortality) allowing for age at retirement. Females experience a longer reverse select period than males and for both males and females the improvement in mortality rates over the reverse select period is greatest at younger ages. Post the reverse select period the effect of age at retirement decreases over time with ultimate mortality rates converging by the mid-eighties for males and females.


2020 ◽  
Vol 67 (4) ◽  
pp. 326-339
Author(s):  
Peter Raynor

One of the advertised aims of the ‘Transforming Rehabilitation’ (TR) reforms in England and Wales was to extend compulsory post-custody supervision to prisoners serving short sentences who were outside the scope of existing resettlement provision. It is now well established that the arrangements introduced by TR for this group of prisoners have not been successful, having delivered high and often unmanageable caseloads, little help to service users and a greatly increased chance of recall to prison. The need which the reforms purported to meet remains unmet. There is little point in poorly designed and delivered provision; on the other hand, resources for the foreseeable future are not likely to support large increases in expenditure when so many parts of the criminal justice system require investment. This article draws on research from the 1990s onwards on provision for this group of prisoners, and in particular, the ‘Pathfinder’ projects of 1999–2003, as examples of what can be achieved on a voluntary basis. It is suggested that future provision for this group in England and Wales should be based on a more selective and individualized provision, with less coercion and more choice for service users.


1928 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 125-221 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Murray Laing

The Registrar-General's Decennial Supplement 1921—England and Wales—Part I, recently published, is of more than usual interest. It embodies the Report of the Government Actuary, Sir Alfred Watson, who was invited to undertake the task of preparing National Life Tables in connection with the Census of 1921.In addition to the preparation of English Life Tables No. 9 for Males and Females separately, the only other tables prepared with similar completeness were those relating to Greater London, being the area comprised within the radius of about fifteen miles measured from Charing Cross. On the other hand, the mortality experience of no fewer than twenty-six sections of the country, differentiated by geographical position and density of population, was examined in considerable detail—a feature which, together with others referred to later, distinguishes this investigation from its predecessors.


2009 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-104 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. F. Whelan

ABSTRACTWe graduate the Irish mortality experience from 1950 to 2003 by mathematical formulae from ages 75 years and upwards. The shape of the mortality curve at advanced ages is shown to be different to that recorded in the official tables, with the curve best fitted with Kannisto's version of Perks's Law. Mortality rates show only a modest trend of improvement in the early decades, below improvements in other developed countries. We evaluate the various approaches suggested to date to extend the method of extinct generations so mortality rates for non-extinct generations can be estimated. It is shown that the key advantage of this method is not in correcting for age misstatements but in achieving a close correspondence between death counts and the exposed to risk. This insight allows a rather straightforward approach to estimating the mortality of non-extinct generations. Applying the approach, we show that there has been an acceleration in the rate of improvement in more recent decades, but secular improvements in Irish mortality at advanced ages still lag behind those of England and Wales.


1930 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 121-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Lewis-Faning

1. Farr's 63 healthy districts are, as a whole, representative of the stationary districts of England and Wales, i.e. those districts in which growth or decline of industry has, on the whole, been absent and in which mortality rates are consequently free from the influence of industrialisation, though not necessarily unaffected by urbanisation.2. These healthy districts maintained, until 1901–10, the advantage they held over England and Wales as regards their relative death rates in 1851–60.3. From 1851–60 to 1901–10 the death rate of the healthy districts remained roughly constant at 76 per cent, of the death rate of England and Wales. Both improved their total death rate to the extent of 30 per cent, of what it was in 1851–60, the rates for this decennium being—England and Wales 21·17, healthy districts 16·13 per 1000.4. The population of the healthy districts has been unfavourably constituted for a low death rate throughout the period.5. That the periods during which the most improvement was made in lowering the death rate—not only in the healthy districts, but in England and Wales as a whole—were 1881—90 and 1901–25.6. By 1921–5 the position of the healthy districts had become a little less favourable, their death rate having risen from 76 to 86 per cent, of that of England and Wales. It is quite possible, however, that this is due, not so much to a falling-off in the rate of improvement in the healthy districts, as to an exceptional increased improvement in backward, very unhealthy districts.7. For the following diseases, the healthy districts show improvement at faster rates, of varying degrees, than England and Wales as a whole, during the period 1851–1925. Measles, scarlet fever, whooping cough, diphtheria, pulmonary tuberculosis, and respiratory diseases.On the other hand, the data relating to diarrhoea seems to indicate less improvement, though inherent deficiencies in the data make this a matter open to doubt.The death rate from cancer, which has increased considerably in the whole country during the last forty years, appears to have increased at a slightly faster rate in the healthy districts.But, as discussed in the report, the untrustworthiness of the data, relating to comparisons of individual disease death rates over long periods of time, make it essential to regard the points enumerated in conclusion 7 rather in the manner of interesting possibilities than as proven facts.8. When the 141 administrative areas, which in 1920–5 corresponded to Dr Farr's original healthy districts, were classified as to whether the majority of their occupied persons worked in other districts or in their own district, the standardised death rates found were as follows:I. Districts in which 50 per cent, of occupied persons work in other districts. Death rate = 10·55 per 1000.II. Districts in which more than 50 per cent, of occupied persons work within the district. Death rate = 9·90 per 1000.When the second of these classes is sub-divided according to whether 50–75 per cent, or over 75 per cent, of occupied persons work within the district, the death rates are:(a) 50–75 per cent, of occupied persons working within the district. Death rate = 9·69 per 1000.(b) 75–100 per cent, of occupied persons working within the district. Death rate = 10·14 per 1000.When the same class is sub-divided according to whether the majority of workers are engaged in non-agricultural or agricultural pursuits, the death rates in each sub-class are:(a) Mainly non-agricultural. Death rate = 9·85 per 1000.(b) Mainly agricultural. Death rate = 9·98 per 1000.


Author(s):  
Nisha de Silva ◽  
Paul Cowell ◽  
Terence Chow ◽  
Paul Worthington

1952 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
pp. 384-393 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Buckatzsch ◽  
Richard Doll

A Factor Analysis has been made of the co-variation between the mortality rates from cancer of ten male body sites and of eight female body sites, in thirty large towns in England and Wales from 1921 to 1930. The method of analysis adopted is Hotelling's method of Principal Components.Four male and four female Factors are obtained, which together account for approximately three-quarters of the total variance.A Factor is found to be associated with cancer of the larynx, oesophagus, stomach and tongue in men and with cancer of the stomach and negatively with cancer of the breast and ovaries in women. In both sexes, the Factors are associated with an index of adverse social conditions.Another Factor is found to be associated with cancer of the rectum and bladder in men and this Factor is associated with good social conditions.A special Factor associated with cancer of the colon is unrelated to the mortality from cancer of other sites, save that in women it is negatively associated with cancer of the rectum.A Factor for cancer of the lung in men is unrelated to cancer of the larynx, and is inversely related to cancer of the tongue.We are most grateful to Dr Percy Stocks, late of the General Register Office, and to Dr W. P. D. Logan, Chief Medical Statistician of the General Register Office, for their help in providing us with the relevant basic material; and to Miss E. M. Hines, Miss A. H. Huntley and Miss M. Rogers for assistance in the calculations.


1981 ◽  
Vol 108 (3) ◽  
pp. 413-422
Author(s):  
C. D. Daykin

This note continues an annual series on mortality rates in Great Britain; the previous note in the series appeared in J.I.A. 107, 529 and dealt with mortality in 1978. Tables 1 and 2 below show central death-rates for Great Britain for the years from 1966 to 1979 and Tables 3 and 4 show the ratios of these rates to the corresponding average rates for the three years 1970–72, which have been taken as a standard. Death-rates in this form for the years from 1961 to 1978 have been published in earlier notes in this series. The rates for 1979 have been calculated using the deaths recorded as occurring in Great Britain in 1979 and the ‘home’ population at 30 June 1979, i.e. the number of people actually in the country at the time, as estimated by the Registrars General of England and Wales and of Scotland.


2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 203-218
Author(s):  
Alicja Olejnik ◽  
Agata Żółtaszek

Abstract Diseases of affluence (of the 21st c.) by definition should have higher prevalence and/or mortality rates in richer and more developed countries than in poorer, underdeveloped states (where diseases of poverty are more common). Therefore, it has been indicated that it is civilizational progress that makes us sick. On the other hand, substantial financial resources, highly qualified medical personnel, and the cutting-edge technology of richer states, should allow for effective preventions, diagnostics, and treatment of diseases of poverty and of affluence. Therefore, a dilemma arises: is progress making us sick or curing us? To evaluate the influence of country socioeconomic and technological development on population health, a spatial analysis of the epidemiology of diseases of affluence and distribution of economic resources for European NUTS 2 has been performed. The main aim of this paper is to assess, how regional diversity in the prevalence of diseases of affluence is related to the regional development of regions.


1969 ◽  
Vol 1 (S1) ◽  
pp. 119-127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean Thompson

SummaryThe age structure of the immigrant female population as shown by the 1961 Census was heavily biased towards the young adult age groups, where fertility rates are highest. The birth rate for such a population could be expected considerably to exceed the average for this country as a whole, due to differences in age structure alone. The Census also showed marked differences betwen the fertility rates of different groups of immigrants but suggested that for the most important groups —from the Irish Republic, the Indian sub-continent and the Caribbean—they then amounted to a completed family size of roughly ½ child above the England and Wales average. There were also marked differences in 1961 between the socio-economic structure of immigrant groups; such evidence as there is points to socio-economic factors as playing an important part in explaining the fertility of immigrants, and its possible change over time.


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