scholarly journals Adult pertussis vaccination strategies and their impact on pertussis in the United States: evaluation of routine and targeted (cocoon) strategies

2007 ◽  
Vol 136 (5) ◽  
pp. 604-620 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. COUDEVILLE ◽  
A. VAN RIE ◽  
P. ANDRE
Keyword(s):  
Booster Dose ◽  
The United States ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Pertussis Infection ◽  
Immunization Strategies ◽  
Adult Vaccination ◽  
Epidemiology Data ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
Coverage Rates ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYA compartmental, age-structured mathematical model was developed and recent US pertussis epidemiology data were used to evaluate the impact on pertussis infection rates of routine and targeted adult immunization strategies. Model simulations predict that the implementation of adolescent immunization only could reverse the current rise in pertussis infection rates but may lead to a resurgence of pertussis in subsequent decades. In contrast, inclusion of a routine adult strategy is likely to lead to sustained control of pertussis. Routine adult vaccination could control the disease even with relatively low coverage rates of 40% for routine vaccination of all adults every 10 years, or 65% for a targeted vaccination of close contacts of newborns completed by one booster dose for all adults. The model also predicts that the optimal age for this booster dose is 40 years. These results support the 2006 American Academy of Immunization Practices' recommendations for adolescent and adult vaccination against pertussis.

scholarly journals The Effect of Vaccination Rates on the Infection of COVID-19 under the Vaccination Rate below the Herd Immunity Threshold

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (14) ◽  
pp. 7491
Author(s):  
Yi-Tui Chen
Keyword(s):  
Infection Rate ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
The United States ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Vaccination Rates ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The World ◽  
Almost All ◽  
The Impact

Although vaccination is carried out worldwide, the vaccination rate varies greatly. As of 24 May 2021, in some countries, the proportion of the population fully vaccinated against COVID-19 has exceeded 50%, but in many countries, this proportion is still very low, less than 1%. This article aims to explore the impact of vaccination on the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. As the herd immunity of almost all countries in the world has not been reached, several countries were selected as sample cases by employing the following criteria: more than 60 vaccine doses per 100 people and a population of more than one million people. In the end, a total of eight countries/regions were selected, including Israel, the UAE, Chile, the United Kingdom, the United States, Hungary, and Qatar. The results find that vaccination has a major impact on reducing infection rates in all countries. However, the infection rate after vaccination showed two trends. One is an inverted U-shaped trend, and the other is an L-shaped trend. For those countries with an inverted U-shaped trend, the infection rate begins to decline when the vaccination rate reaches 1.46–50.91 doses per 100 people.

scholarly journals Modelling pertussis transmission to evaluate the effectiveness of an adolescent booster in Argentina

2012 ◽  
Vol 141 (4) ◽  
pp. 718-734 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. FABRICIUS ◽  
P. E. BERGERO ◽  
M. E. ORMAZABAL ◽  
A. L. MALTZ ◽  
D. F. HOZBOR
Keyword(s):  
Booster Dose ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Vulnerable Group ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
Epidemiological Features ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

SUMMARYDue to the current epidemiological situation of pertussis, several countries have implemented vaccination strategies that include a booster dose for adolescents. Since there is still no evidence showing that the adolescent booster has a positive effect on the most vulnerable group represented by infants, it is difficult to universalize the recommendation to include such reinforcement. In this work we present an age-structured compartmental deterministic model that considers the outstanding epidemiological features of the disease in order to assess the impact of the booster dose at age 11 years (Tdap booster) to infants. To this end, we performed different parameterizations of the model that represent distinct possible epidemiological scenarios. The results obtained show that the inclusion of a single Tdap dose at age 11 years significantly reduces the incidence of the disease within this age group, but has a very low impact on the risk group (0–1 year). An effort to improve the coverage of the first dose would have a much greater impact on infants. These results hold in the 18 scenarios considered, which demonstrates the robustness of these conclusions.

scholarly journals Modelling the impact of extended vaccination strategies on the epidemiology of pertussis

2011 ◽  
Vol 140 (8) ◽  
pp. 1503-1514 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. H. ROZENBAUM ◽  
R. De VRIES ◽  
H. H. LE ◽  
M. J. POSTMA
Keyword(s):  
Booster Dose ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Natural Infection ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
Booster Vaccination ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYThe aim of this study was to investigate the optimal pertussis booster vaccination strategy for The Netherlands. A realistic age-structured deterministic model was designed. Assuming a steady-state situation and correcting for underreporting, the model was calibrated using notification data from the period 1996–2000. Several sensitivity analyses were performed to explore the impact of different assumptions for parameters surrounded by uncertainty (e.g. duration of protection after natural infection, underreporting factors, and transmission probabilities). The optimal age of an additional booster dose is in the range of 10–15 years, and implementation of this booster dose will reduce both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections, although the incidence of symptomatic infections in older age groups will increase. The impact of the different assumptions used in the model was in general limited. We conclude that over a wide range of assumptions, an additional booster dose can reduce the incidence of pertussis in the population.

scholarly journals Contact surveys reveal heterogeneities in age-group contributions to SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in the United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taylor Chin ◽  
Dennis M. Feehan ◽  
Caroline O. Buckee ◽  
Ayesha S. Mahmud
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
The United States ◽  
Contact Rate ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

SARS-CoV-2 is spread primarily through person-to-person contacts. Quantifying population contact rates is important for understanding the impact of physical distancing policies and for modeling COVID-19, but contact patterns have changed substantially over time due to shifting policies and behaviors. There are surprisingly few empirical estimates of age-structured contact rates in the United States both before and throughout the COVID-19 pandemic that capture these changes. Here, we use data from six waves of the Berkeley Interpersonal Contact Survey (BICS), which collected detailed contact data between March 22, 2020 and February 15, 2021 across six metropolitan designated market areas (DMA) in the United States. Contact rates were low across all six DMAs at the start of the pandemic. We find steady increases in the mean and median number of contacts across these localities over time, as well as a greater proportion of respondents reporting a high number of contacts. We also find that young adults between ages 18 and 34 reported more contacts on average compared to other age groups. The 65 and older age group consistently reported low levels of contact throughout the study period. To understand the impact of these changing contact patterns, we simulate COVID-19 dynamics in each DMA using an age-structured mechanistic model. We compare results from models that use BICS contact rate estimates versus commonly used alternative contact rate sources. We find that simulations parameterized with BICS estimates give insight into time-varying changes in relative incidence by age group that are not captured in the absence of these frequently updated estimates. We also find that simulation results based on BICS estimates closely match observed data on the age distribution of cases, and changes in these distributions over time. Together these findings highlight the role of different age groups in driving and sustaining SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the U.S. We also show the utility of repeated contact surveys in revealing heterogeneities in the epidemiology of COVID-19 across localities in the United States.

scholarly journals State Regulation of Ribes to Control White Pine Blister Rust

2000 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 562-564 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven McKay
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
The United States ◽  
State Regulation ◽  
Regulatory Agencies ◽  
White Pine Blister Rust ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
White Pine ◽  
Blister Rust ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact

Recent interest in expanding commercial currant and gooseberry (Ribes L.) plantings in the United States has put pressure on the states with Ribes restrictions to review their regulations. A meeting on 9 January 1998 initiated discussion between the state agriculture regulatory agencies, forest pathologists, and horticulturists. Since then a white pine blister rust (WPBR), Cronartium ribicola J.C. Fischer) World Wide Web (Web) site (McKay, 1998) and list serve have been activated to facilitate communication. Vermont is a state that has no regulations on the books at this time. Connecticut and New York also have mentioned that infection rates are low. Maine retains a Ribes reduction program, and Massachusetts is strictly enforcing their regulations. The following summarizes the general consensus among the majority of regulating states: 1) It is desirable to find a way for both white pines (Pinus L.) and commercial Ribes plantings to coexist. 2) More research is needed to survey existing Ribes and pines, the potential impact of commercial plantings versus the impact of existing Ribes, and the potential impact of escape /volunteer seedlings from immune Ribes cultivars. 3) There is interest in permitting immune Ribes cultivars to be planted. 4) There is interest in having consistency in regulations from state to state.

THE IMPACT OF VACCINATION ON MALARIA PREVALENCE: A VACCINE-AGE-STRUCTURED MODELING APPROACH

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (02) ◽  
pp. 475-513
Author(s):  
KATIA VOGT-GEISSE ◽  
CALISTUS N. NGONGHALA ◽  
ZHILAN FENG
Keyword(s):  
Booster Dose ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Vaccine Dose ◽  
Threshold Value ◽  
Disease Prevalence ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Disease Eradication ◽  
Vaccination Programs ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
The Impact

A deterministic model for the effects on disease prevalence of the most advanced pre-erythrocytic vaccine against malaria is proposed and studied. The model includes two vaccinated classes that correspond to initially vaccinated and booster dose vaccinated individuals. These two classes are structured by time-since-initial-vaccination (vaccine-age). This structure is a novelty for vector–host models; it allows us to explore the effects of parameters that describe timed and delayed delivery of a booster dose, and immunity waning on disease prevalence. Incorporating two vaccinated classes can predict more accurately threshold vaccination coverages for disease eradication under multi-dose vaccination programs. We derive a vaccine-age-structured control reproduction number [Formula: see text] and establish conditions for the existence and stability of equilibria to the system. The model is bistable when [Formula: see text]. In particular, it exhibits a backward (sub-critical) bifurcation, indicating that [Formula: see text] is no longer the threshold value for disease eradication. Thus, to achieve eradication we must identify and implement control measures that will reduce [Formula: see text] to a value smaller than unity. Therefore, it is crucial to be cautious when using [Formula: see text] to guide public health policy, although it remains a key quantity for decision making. Our results show that if the booster vaccine dose is administered with delay, individuals may not acquire its full protective effect, and that incorporating waning efficacy into the system improves the accuracy of the model outcomes. This study suggests that it is critical to follow vaccination schedules closely, and anticipate the consequences of delays in those schedules.

scholarly journals Impact of vaccine hesitancy on secondary COVID-19 outbreaks in the US

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfonso de Miguel Arribas ◽  
Alberto Aleta ◽  
Yamir Moreno
Keyword(s):  
Vaccine Hesitancy ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Us ◽  
Vaccination Acceptance ◽  
Model Set ◽  
Important Amount ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Near Future

The COVID-19 outbreak has become the worst pandemic in at least a century. To fight this disease, a global effort led to the development of several vaccines at an unprecedented rate. There have been, however, several logistic issues with its deployment, from their production and transport, to the hesitancy of the population to be vaccinated. For different reasons, an important amount of individuals is reluctant to get the vaccine, something that hinders our ability to control and - eventually - eradicate the disease. In this work, we analyze the impact that this hesitancy might have in a context in which a more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern spreads through a partially vaccinated population. We use age-stratified data from surveys on vaccination acceptance, together with age-contact matrices to inform an age-structured SIR model set in the US. Our results clearly show that higher vaccine hesitancy ratios led to larger outbreaks. A closer inspection of the stratified infection rates also reveals the important role played by the youngest groups. Our results could shed some light on the role that hesitancy will play in the near future and inform policy-makers and the general public of the importance of reducing it.

scholarly journals 2742. The Impact of Influenza Vaccination on Antibiotic Use in the United States, 2010–2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. S965-S966
Author(s):  
Eili Klein ◽  
Emily Schueller ◽  
Katie K Tseng ◽  
Arindam Nandi
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Antibiotic Resistance ◽  
Influenza Vaccination ◽  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Seasonal Influenza ◽  
Antibiotic Use ◽  
The United States ◽  
Antibiotic Prescribing ◽  
Coverage Rates ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Antibiotic resistance is a cause of morbidity and mortality driven by inappropriate prescribing. In the United States, a third of all outpatient antibiotic prescriptions may be inappropriate. Seasonal influenza rates are significantly associated with antibiotic prescribing rates. The impact of influenza vaccination coverage on antibiotic prescribing is unknown. Methods We conducted a retrospective analysis of state-level vaccination coverage and antibiotic prescribing rates from 2010 to 2017. We used fixed effects regression to analyze the relationship between cumulative vaccine coverage rates for a season and the per capita number of prescriptions for systemic antibiotics for the corresponding season (January–March) controlling for temperature, poverty, healthcare infrastructure, population structure, and vaccine effectiveness. Results Rates of vaccination coverage ranged from 33% in Nevada to 52% in Rhode Island for the 2016–2017 season, while antibiotic use rates ranged from 25 prescriptions per 1,000 inhabitants in Alaska to 377 prescriptions per 1,000 inhabitants in West Virginia (Figure 1). Vaccination coverage rates were highly correlated with reduced prescribing rates, and controlling for other factors, we found that a one percent increase in the influenza vaccination rate was associated with 1.40 (95% CI: 2.22–0.57, P < 0.01) fewer antibiotic prescriptions per 1,000 inhabitants (Table 1). Increases in the vaccination coverage rate in the pediatric population (aged 0–18) had the strongest effect, followed by the elderly (aged 65+). Conclusion Vaccination can reduce morbidity and mortality from seasonal influenza. Though coverage rates are far below levels necessary to generate herd immunity, we found that higher coverage rates in a state were associated with lower antibiotic prescribing rates. While the effectiveness of the vaccine varies from year to year and the factors that drive antibiotic prescribing rates are multi-factorial, these results suggest that increased vaccination coverage for influenza would have significant benefit in terms of reducing antibiotic overuse and correspondingly antibiotic resistance. Disclosures All authors: No reported disclosures.

scholarly journals Burnout in the disaster response workforce: The impact of work roles and the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (9) ◽  
pp. 81-90
Author(s):  
Kelsey L. Merlo, PhD ◽  
Katrina M. Conen, BA ◽  
Blake Scott, MPH ◽  
Kayla Jones, MA ◽  
Elizabeth A. Dunn, MPH, CPH ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Response ◽  
The United States ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Role Stressors ◽  
Response Efficacy ◽  
Hurricane Season ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Wildfire Season ◽  
Community Infection

The coronavirus-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic cor­responded with a record-breaking year for billion-dollar disasters. While the pandemic swept across the United States, the country also experienced a record-setting hurricane season on the East Coast and an unprecedented wildfire season on the West Coast. These co-occurring threats have placed unprecedented strain on our disaster response workforce with poten­tial long-term implications for turnover and disaster response efficacy. In this paper, we draw from the Job Demands-Resources model to address the influence of workers’ role stressors and community infection rates during the COVID-19 pandemic and job burnout and turnover in the disaster response workforce. 

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