scholarly journals Meteorological factors and its association with hand, foot and mouth disease in Southeast and East Asia areas: a meta-analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunxiao Duan ◽  
Xuefeng Zhang ◽  
Hui Jin ◽  
Xiaoqing Cheng ◽  
Donglei Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Meteorological Factors ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
China National Knowledge Infrastructure ◽  
Foot And Mouth

AbstractSince the late 1990s, hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has become a common health problem that mostly affects children and infants in Southeast and East Asia. Global climate change is considered to be one of the major risk factors for HFMD. This study aimed to assess the correlation between meteorological factors and HFMD in the Asia-Pacific region. PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang Data and Weipu Database were searched to identify relevant articles published before May 2018. Data were collected and analysed using R software. We searched 2397 articles and identified 51 eligible papers in this study. The present study included eight meteorological factors; mean temperature, mean highest temperature, mean lowest temperature, rainfall, relative humidity and hours of sunshine were positively correlated with HFMD, with correlation coefficients (CORs) of 0.52 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.42–0.60), 0.43 (95% CI 0.23–0.59), 0.43 (95% CI 0.23–0.60), 0.27 (95% CI 0.19–0.35), 0.19 (95% CI 0.02–0.35) and 0.19 (95% CI 0.11–0.27), respectively. There were sufficient data to support a negative correlation between mean pressure and HFMD (COR = −0.51, 95% CI −0.63 to −0.36). There was no notable correlation with wind speed (COR = 0.10, 95% CI −0.03 to 0.23). Our findings suggest that meteorological factors affect the incidence of HFMD to a certain extent.

scholarly journals Effect of Meteorological and Geographical Factors on the Epidemics of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Island-Type Territory, East Asia

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chang-Chun David Lee ◽  
Jia-Hong Tang ◽  
Jing-Shiang Hwang ◽  
Mika Shigematsu ◽  
Ta-Chien Chan
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Meteorological Factors ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Dew Point ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Public Health Issue ◽  
Foot And Mouth

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has threatened East Asia for more than three decades and has become an important public health issue owing to its severe sequelae and mortality among children. The lack of effective treatment and vaccine for HFMD highlights the urgent need for efficiently integrated early warning surveillance systems in the region. In this study, we try to integrate the available surveillance and weather data in East Asia to elucidate possible spatiotemporal correlations and weather conditions among different areas from low to high latitude. The general additive model (GAM) was applied to understand the association between HFMD and latitude, as well as meteorological factors for islands in East Asia, namely, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore, from 2012 to 2014. The results revealed that latitude was the most important explanatory factor associated with the timing and amplitude of HFMD epidemics (P<0.0001). Meteorological factors including higher dew point, lower visibility, and lower wind speed were significantly associated with the rise of epidemics (P<0.01). In summary, weather conditions and geographic location could play some role in affecting HFMD epidemics. Regional integrated surveillance of HFMD in East Asia is needed for mitigating the disease risk.

scholarly journals The Risk Factors of Acquiring Severe Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease: A Meta-Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bai Jun Sun ◽  
Hui Jie Chen ◽  
Ye Chen ◽  
Xiang Dong An ◽  
Bao Sen Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Floating Population ◽  
Ev71 Infection ◽  
Cochrane Library ◽  
China National Knowledge Infrastructure ◽  
Foot And Mouth

Objectives. The incidence of severe hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is not low, especially in mainland China in almost every year recently. In this study, we conducted a meta-analysis to generate large-scale evidence on the risk factors of severe HFMD to provide suggestions on prevention and controlling. Methods. PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, Cochrane Library, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), and Wanfang (Chinese) were searched to identify relevant articles. All analyses were performed using Stata 14.0. Results. We conducted a meta-analysis of 11 separate studies. Fever (odds ratio (OR) 7.396, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.565–15.342), fever for more than 3 days (OR 5.773, 95% CI 4.199–7.939), vomiting (OR 6.023, 95% CI 2.598–13.963), limb trembling (OR 42.348, 95% CI 11.765–152.437), dyspnea (OR 12.869, 95% CI 1.948–85.017), contact with HFMD children (OR 5.326, 95% CI 1.263–22.466), rashes on the hips (OR 1.650, 95% CI 1.303–2.090), pathologic reflexes (OR 3057.064, 95% CI 494.409–19000), Lethargy (OR 31.791, 95% CI 3.369–300.020), convulsions (OR 23.652, 95% CI 1.973–283.592), and EV71 infection (OR 9.056, 95% CI 4.102–19.996) were significantly related to the risk of severe HFMD. We did not find an association between female sex (OR 0.918, 95% CI 0.738–1.142), scatter-lived children (OR 1.347, 95% CI 0.245–7.397), floating population (OR 0.847, 95% CI 0.202–3.549), rash on the hands (OR 0.740, 95% CI 0.292–1.874), rash on the foot (OR 0.905, 95% CI 0.645–1.272), the level of the clinic visited first (below the country level) (OR 5.276, 95% CI 0.781–35.630), breast feeding (OR 0.523, 95% CI 0.167–1.643), and the risk of severe HFMD. Conclusions. Fever, fever for more than 3 days, vomiting, limb trembling, dyspnea, contact with HFMD children, rashes on the hips, pathologic reflexes, lethargy, convulsions, and EV71 infection are risk factors for severe HFMD.

scholarly journals Meteorological factors affect the hand, foot, and mouth disease epidemic in Qingdao, China, 2007–2014

2016 ◽  
Vol 144 (11) ◽  
pp. 2354-2362 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. C. JIANG ◽  
F. YANG ◽  
L. CHEN ◽  
J. JIA ◽  
Y. L. HAN ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Meteorological Factors ◽  
Enterovirus 71 ◽  
Rank Correlation ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Late Summer ◽  
Atmospheric Temperature ◽  
Early Spring ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Spearman Rank Correlation Analysis

SUMMARYHand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has caused public health concerns worldwide. We aimed to investigate the effect of meteorological factors on the HFMD epidemic in Qingdao, a port city in China. A total of 78641 cases were reported in Qingdao between January 2007 and December 2014. Of those, 71084 (90·39%) occurred in children aged 0–5 years, with an incidence of 1691·2/100000. The incidence increased from early spring, peaked between spring and summer, and decreased in late summer. Aetiological agents in all severe cases and selected mild cases were characterized by examining throat swabs. Except for enterovirus 71 (EV71) and coxsackievirus A16 (CA16), other EVs caused >50% of the HFMD cases between 2011 and 2014. EV71 was more frequent in the off-peak months than in the peak months and prone to causing more severe cases compared to CA16 (χ2 = 46·3, P < 0·001). CA10 caused more severe HFMD than did CA6 (χ2 = 20·49, P < 0·001) and all non-CA10 EVs (χ2 = 41·01, P < 0·001). Community-derived HFMD cases accounted for 65·11%. Spearman rank correlation analysis showed that HFMD incidence in children aged 0–5 years was positively correlated with atmospheric temperature (rs = 0·77, P < 0·001), relative humidity (rs = 0·507, P < 0·001), and precipitation (rs = 0·328, P < 0·001). Climate changes and CA10 surveillance in communities should be integrated into the current prophylactic programme.

scholarly journals Meta-analysis on the efficacy of routine vaccination against foot and mouth disease (FMD) in China

2014 ◽  
Vol 115 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 94-100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chang Cai ◽  
Huachun Li ◽  
John Edwards ◽  
Chris Hawkins ◽  
Ian D. Robertson
Keyword(s):  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Routine Vaccination ◽  
Foot And Mouth

scholarly journals Selection of vaccine strains for serotype O foot-and-mouth disease viruses (2007–2012) circulating in Southeast Asia, East Asia and Far East

Vaccine ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (51) ◽  
pp. 7147-7153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mana Mahapatra ◽  
Sasmita Upadhyaya ◽  
Sharie Aviso ◽  
Aravindh Babu ◽  
Geoff Hutchings ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southeast Asia ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Far East ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Serotype O ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Selection Of

Virulence of enterovirus-A71 fluctuates depending on the phylogenetic clade formed in the epidemic year and epidemic region

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyousuke Kobayashi ◽  
Hidekazu Nishimura ◽  
Katsumi Mizuta ◽  
Tomoha Nishizawa ◽  
Son T. Chu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Transgenic Mice ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Virus Genome ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Enterovirus A71 ◽  
Viral Virulence ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Potential Risks ◽  
A Minor

Although epidemics of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) caused by enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) have occurred worldwide, the Asia-Pacific region has seen large sporadic outbreaks with many severe neurological cases. This suggests that the virulence of the circulating viruses fluctuates in each epidemic and that HFMD outbreaks with many severe cases occur when highly virulent viruses are circulating predominantly, which has not been experimentally verified. Here, we analyzed 32 clinically isolated strains obtained in Japan from 2002 to 2013, along with 27 Vietnamese strains obtained from 2015 to 2016 that we characterized previously using human SCARB2 transgenic mice. Phylogenetic analysis of the P1 region classified them into five clades belonging to subgenogroup B5 (B5-I to B5-V) and five clades belonging to subgenogroup C4 (C4-I to C4-V) according to the epidemic year and region. Interestingly, the clade B5-I and B5-II were very virulent, while clades B5-III, B5-IV, and B5-V were less virulent. Clades C4-II, C4-III, C4-IV, and C4-V were virulent, while clade C4-I was not. The result experimentally showed for the first time that several clades with different virulence levels emerged one after another. The experimental virulence evaluation of circulating viruses using SCARB2 transgenic mice is helpful to assess potential risks of circulating viruses. These results also suggest that a minor nucleotide or amino acid substitution in the EV-A71 genome during circulation may cause fluctuations in virulence. The data presented herein may increase our understanding of the dynamics of viral virulence during epidemics. IMPORTANCE Outbreaks of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) with severe enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) cases have occurred repeatedly, mainly in Asia. In severe cases, central nervous system complications can lead to death, making it an infectious disease of importance to public health. An unanswered question about this disease is why outbreaks of HFMD with many severe cases sometimes occur. Here, we collected EV-A71 strains that were prevalent in Japan and Vietnam over the past 20 years and evaluated their virulence in a mouse model of EV-A71 infection. This method clearly revealed that viruses belonging to different clades have different virulence, indicating that the method is powerful to assess the potential risks of the circulating viruses. The results also suggested that factors in the virus genome may potentially cause an outbreak with many severe cases and that further studies may facilitate the prediction of large epidemics of EV-A71 in the future.

scholarly journals Forecasting incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease using BP neural networks in Jiangsu province, China

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wendong Liu ◽  
Changjun Bao ◽  
Yuping Zhou ◽  
Hong Ji ◽  
Ying Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Meteorological Factors ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Jiangsu Province ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Bp Model

Abstract Background Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a rising public health problem and has attracted considerable attention worldwide. The purpose of this study was to develop an optimal model with meteorological factors to predict the epidemic of HFMD. Methods Two types of methods, back propagation neural networks (BP) and auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), were employed to develop forecasting models, based on the monthly HFMD incidences and meteorological factors during 2009–2016 in Jiangsu province, China. Root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were employed to select model and evaluate the performance of the models. Results Four models were constructed. The multivariate BP model was constructed using the HFMD incidences lagged from 1 to 4 months, mean temperature, rainfall and their one order lagged terms as inputs. The other BP model was fitted just using the lagged HFMD incidences as inputs. The univariate ARIMA model was specified as ARIMA (1,0,1)(1,1,0)12 (AIC = 1132.12, BIC = 1440.43). And the multivariate ARIMAX with one order lagged temperature as external predictor was fitted based on this ARIMA model (AIC = 1132.37, BIC = 1142.76). The multivariate BP model performed the best in both model fitting stage and prospective forecasting stage, with a MAPE no more than 20%. The performance of the multivariate ARIMAX model was similar to that of the univariate ARIMA model. Both performed much worse than the two BP models, with a high MAPE near to 40%. Conclusion The multivariate BP model effectively integrated the autocorrelation of the HFMD incidence series. Meanwhile, it also comprehensively combined the climatic variables and their hysteresis effects. The introduction of the climate terms significantly improved the prediction accuracy of the BP model. This model could be an ideal method to predict the epidemic level of HFMD, which is of great importance for the public health authorities.

scholarly journals Outcomes following severe hand foot and mouth disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (5) ◽  
pp. 763-773 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eben Jones ◽  
Timesh D. Pillay ◽  
Fengfeng Liu ◽  
Li Luo ◽  
Juan Carlos Bazo-Alvarez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Foot And Mouth

scholarly journals Early Evidence of Inactivated Enterovirus 71 Vaccine Impact Against Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in a Major Center of Ongoing Transmission in China, 2011–2018: A Longitudinal Surveillance Study

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer R Head ◽  
Philip A Collender ◽  
Joseph A Lewnard ◽  
Nicholas K Skaff ◽  
Ling Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Enterovirus 71 ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Full Time ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Vaccine Impact

Abstract Background Enterovirus 71 (EV71) is a major causative agent of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD), associated with severe manifestations of the disease. Pediatric immunization with inactivated EV71 vaccine was initiated in 2016 in the Asia-Pacific region, including China. We analyzed a time series of HFMD cases attributable to EV71, coxsackievirus A16 (CA16), and other enteroviruses in Chengdu, a major transmission center in China, to assess early impacts of immunization. Methods Reported HFMD cases were obtained from China’s notifiable disease surveillance system. We compared observed postvaccination incidence rates during 2017–2018 with counterfactual predictions made from a negative binomial regression and a random forest model fitted to prevaccine years (2011–2015). We fit a change point model to the full time series to evaluate whether the trend of EV71 HFMD changed following vaccination. Results Between 2011 and 2018, 279 352 HFMD cases were reported in the study region. The average incidence rate of EV71 HFMD in 2017–2018 was 60% (95% prediction interval [PI], 41%–72%) lower than predicted in the absence of immunization, corresponding to an estimated 6911 (95% PI, 3246–11 542) EV71 cases averted over 2 years. There were 52% (95% PI, 42%–60%) fewer severe HFMD cases than predicted. However, the incidence rate of non-CA16 and non-EV71 HFMD was elevated in 2018. We identified a significant decline in the trend of EV71 HFMD 4 months into the postvaccine period. Conclusions We provide the first real-world evidence that programmatic vaccination against EV71 is effective against childhood HFMD and present an approach to detect early vaccine impact or intended consequences from surveillance data.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document