scholarly journals Two concerns about the interpretation of the estimates of historical national accounts before 1850

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 294-300
Author(s):  
Jan Luiten van Zanden ◽  
Jutta Bolt
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
National Accounts ◽  
Industrial Growth ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Low Rate

AbstractAs contribution to the debate about the interpretation of the process of economic growth before the Industrial Revolution, we discuss two concerns about the currently available estimates of historical national accounts and the way in which these estimates should be interpreted. Firstly, we argue that estimates of the long-term trends of economic growth should make use of all information contained in time series of Gross Domestic Product (GDP henceforth), and therefore use standard regression analysis to establish those trends. Secondly, we point to the problem that the time series of historical GDP are based on very different estimation procedures, which probably affect the outcome in terms of the level of GDP per capita in the period before 1850. Both concerns imply that we do not entirely agree with Jack Goldstone’s views of pre-industrial growth. In particular, his conclusion that growth was cyclical before 1800 is inconsistent with the available GDP estimates, which point to sustained growth, albeit at a very low rate.

scholarly journals Examining GDP Growth and Its Volatility: An Episodic Approach

Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (7) ◽  
pp. 890
Author(s):  
Jakub Bartak ◽  
Łukasz Jabłoński ◽  
Agnieszka Jastrzębska
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Per Capita

In this paper, we study economic growth and its volatility from an episodic perspective. We first demonstrate the ability of the genetic algorithm to detect shifts in the volatility and levels of a given time series. Having shown that it works well, we then use it to detect structural breaks that segment the GDP per capita time series into episodes characterized by different means and volatility of growth rates. We further investigate whether a volatile economy is likely to grow more slowly and analyze the determinants of high/low growth with high/low volatility patterns. The main results indicate a negative relationship between volatility and growth. Moreover, the results suggest that international trade simultaneously promotes growth and increases volatility, human capital promotes growth and stability, and financial development reduces volatility and negatively correlates with growth.

scholarly journals FEATURES OF DEVELOPMENT OF TOURISM IN GEORGIA AS AN INDUSTRY CONTRIBUTING TO ECONOMIC GROWTH OF THE COUNTRY

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-289
Author(s):  
L.V. Detochenko
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Tourist Destinations ◽  
Transport Component ◽  
Tourist Flows ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Republic

The role and place of the tourism industry in the economic complex of Georgia are considered; the conclusion is made about the “tourist miracle” taking place in the country, which is a factor of the economic growth of the republic. The differences between the concepts of “foreign visitors” and “foreign tourists” are presented. The increase in the contribution of the tourism industry and related industries involved in the tourism industry in the creation of the gross domestic product of the country, its impact on the growth of the Georgian budget and GDP per capita, the average monthly wage is shown. The conclusion about the need to increase the share of medium and long-term tourists among foreign visitors and tourists in the country is justified. The problems of the return of tourists, the long-term stay in Georgia, the differences of the countries-generators of tourist flows by these indicators have been studied. The changes in work and the prospects of various types of transport for the delivery of tourists to Georgia are analyzed, the measures to improve the tourist transport component are proposed. The correlation between the number of tourist arrivals and the average cost of tourists visiting Georgia from different countries is shown and the economic profitability of attracting Russian tourists, capable of filling all the tourist destinations of the country, contributing to the “tourist miracle” of Georgia is considered.

scholarly journals Trade Openness and Economic Growth Nexus: A Case Study of BRICS

2018 ◽  
Vol 54 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. G. Burange ◽  
Rucha R. Ranadive ◽  
Neha N. Karnik
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Jel Codes ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Econometric Technique

The article analyses a causal relationship between trade openness and economic growth for the member countries of BRICS by using an econometric technique of time series analysis. Member countries of BRICS adopted a series of liberalization reforms, almost simultaneously, from the late 1980s. The article attempts to study the impact of trade openness on their growth in GDP per capita. It captures structural composition of GDP and openness of trade in four aspects, that is, merchandise exports, merchandise imports, services export and services import. In India, the study found growth-led trade in services hypothesis. The article supports the growth-led export and growth-led import hypothesis for China and export- and import-led growth for South Africa. However, no causal relationship was evident for Brazil and Russia. JEL Codes: F43, C22

scholarly journals SOURCES OF INNOVATION ACTIVITY AS A FACTOR OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olga BUCHINSKAIA ◽  
Elena STREMOUSOVA
Keyword(s):  
Decision Makers ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Innovation Activity ◽  
Related Factors ◽  
Dependent Variables ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
New Industry ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose – the purpose of the study is to define the sources and restrictions of new industry development based on the R&D -related factors of the countries studied; to show the conditions of inequality based on the existing infrastructure, which are obstacles for achieving an advantage in technology. Research methodology – the panel studies were conducted on four groups of countries divided by the level of GDP per capita. High technology exports and charges for the use of the intellectual property were used as dependent variables. Findings – as a result of the study, the factors that influenced the dependent variables in each of these groups of countries were identified. The differences in the significance of factors are shown. Research limitations – the limitations of the study are significant gaps in the time series for a number of countries. They make it impossible to use such data in the econometric model. Some indicators are taken into account relatively recently, which makes it impossible to consider long-term trends. Practical implications – the results of the research should help the country decision-makers optimize measures to develop domestic R&D and innovative production. Originality/Value – the originality of the research is the study of country sets grouped by the level of GDP per capita. The specifics of patents and trademarks influence on the innovative activity of countries with different income levels are determined.

Summaries of Doctoral Dissertations

2014 ◽  
Vol 74 (2) ◽  
pp. 553-590
Keyword(s):  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Black Death ◽  
Population Recovery ◽  
Subsistence Minimum ◽  
Unskilled Workers ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Doctoral Dissertations ◽  
Medieval Egypt

This study establishes long-term trends in the purchasing power of the wages of unskilled workers and develops estimates for GDP per capita for medieval Egypt and Iraq. Wages were heavily influenced by two long-lasting demographic shocks, the Justinian Plague and the Black Death and the slow population recovery that followed. As a result, they remained above the subsistence minimum for most of the medieval era. We also argue that the environment of high wages that emerged after the Justinian Plague contributed to the Golden Age of Islam by creating demand for higher income goods.

scholarly journals Plagues, Wages, and Economic Change in the Islamic Middle East, 700–1500

2014 ◽  
Vol 74 (1) ◽  
pp. 196-229 ◽  
Author(s):  
Şevket Pamuk ◽  
Maya Shatzmiller
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Black Death ◽  
Population Recovery ◽  
Subsistence Minimum ◽  
Unskilled Workers ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Medieval Egypt

This study establishes long-term trends in the purchasing power of the wages of unskilled workers and develops estimates for GDP per capita for medieval Egypt and Iraq. Wages were heavily influenced by two long-lasting demographic shocks, the Justinian Plague and the Black Death and the slow population recovery that followed. As a result, they remained above the subsistence minimum for most of the medieval era. We also argue that the environment of high wages that emerged after the Justinian Plague contributed to the Golden Age of Islam by creating demand for higher income goods.

scholarly journals Is the savings-led growth hypothesis valid for Zimbabwe?

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 9-13
Author(s):  
Kunofiwa Tsaurai
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Case Study Methodology ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Savings ◽  
Study Methodology ◽  
Per Capita

This study investigates the long run relationship between economic growth and gross domestic savings for Zimbabwe during the period 1980 to 2011. The causality relationship between savings and economic growth has been a subject of extensive debate for almost half a century now. There are currently two dominant views regarding the relationship between savings and economic growth. The first view maintains that it is the growth of savings that drives economic growth. The second view argues that it is economic growth that spurs savings expansion. Using the case study methodology, the study revealed that GDP per capita had a significant positive influence on the quantity and level of gross domestic savings and not the other way round. Policies that are targeted at boosting GDP per capita should be accelerated in order to promote long-term and sustainable growth gross domestic savings for in Zimbabwe

scholarly journals Seven Centuries of European Economic Growth and Decline

2015 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 227-244 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roger Fouquet ◽  
Stephen Broadberry
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Nineteenth Century ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Economic Decline ◽  
European Economic ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
European Economies

This paper investigates very long-run preindustrial economic development. New annual GDP per capita data for six European countries over the last seven hundred years paint a clearer picture of the history of European economic development. We confirm that sustained growth has been a recent phenomenon, but reject the argument that there was no long-run growth in living standards before the Industrial Revolution. Instead, the evidence demonstrates the existence of numerous periods of economic growth before the nineteenth century—periods of unsustained, but raising GDP per capita. We also show that many of the economies experienced substantial economic decline. Thus, rather than being stagnant, pre-nineteenth century European economies experienced a great deal of change. Finally, we offer some evidence that, from the nineteenth century, these economies increased the likelihood of being in a phase of economic growth and reduced the risk of being in a phase of economic decline.

Energy and Industrial Growth

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malanima Paolo ◽  
Astrid Kander ◽  
Paul Warde
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Nineteenth Century ◽  
Capita Income ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Economic Structure ◽  
Necessary Condition ◽  
Per Capita Income ◽  
Industrial Growth ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Per Capita

This chapter considers the role that energy played in the industrial growth in nineteenth-century Europe. The economies of Europe grew more rapidly during the nineteenth century than at any previous period in history. This was not simply a consequence of the doubling of the population; per capita income rose as well. Given these facts it is hardly surprising that energy consumption also increased dramatically. Consumption of coal seems to have been a key part of economic growth, as measured by per capita income, and cheap energy was a necessary condition of the industrial revolution. The chapter first considers how coal development blocks contributed to growth in Europe during the period before discussing a number of long-run propositions, such as the strong complementarity between energy and capital. It concludes with an assessment of the link between energy intensity and economic structure.

scholarly journals The Relationship Between Education Outputs, Education Expenditure, and Economic Growth in Saudi Arabia

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 320
Author(s):  
Benlaria Houcine ◽  
Messen Kerroumia ◽  
Emad Abdel Khalek Saber El-Tahan ◽  
Tarig Osman Abdallah Helal
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Education Expenditure ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Economic Growth Rates ◽  
The Relationship

The present study investigated the relationship between education outputs, Education expenditure, and economic growth in Saudi Arabia for the time period of 1986–2016. The results obtained after employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model revealed a long-term relationship between the studied variables, an inverse relationship between the number of graduates and growth in the long term, whereas a non-significant positive relationship appeared in the short -term. Findings indicate also that public spending in education has a positive and significant impact on economic growth in the long run. Furthermore, he observed that a 1% increase in public expenditure in education contributes 18% increase in GDP per capita in the long run. This is in line with economic theory and previous research showing that expenditure on education leads to a rise in GDP per capita and economic growth rates. The recommendations of this study are fundamental to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

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