scholarly journals The mortality cost of carbon

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Daniel Bressler
Keyword(s):  
Climate Policy ◽  
Damage Function ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Excess Death ◽  
The Social ◽  
Mortality Cost ◽  
Optimal Climate Policy ◽  
Emissions Scenario ◽  
Excess Deaths ◽  
Related Mortality

AbstractMany studies project that climate change can cause a significant number of excess deaths. Yet, in integrated assessment models (IAMs) that determine the social cost of carbon (SCC) and prescribe optimal climate policy, human mortality impacts are limited and not updated to the latest scientific understanding. This study extends the DICE-2016 IAM to explicitly include temperature-related mortality impacts by estimating a climate-mortality damage function. We introduce a metric, the mortality cost of carbon (MCC), that estimates the number of deaths caused by the emissions of one additional metric ton of CO2. In the baseline emissions scenario, the 2020 MCC is 2.26 × 10‒4 [low to high estimate −1.71× 10‒4 to 6.78 × 10‒4] excess deaths per metric ton of 2020 emissions. This implies that adding 4,434 metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2020—equivalent to the lifetime emissions of 3.5 average Americans—causes one excess death globally in expectation between 2020-2100. Incorporating mortality costs increases the 2020 SCC from $37 to $258 [−$69 to $545] per metric ton in the baseline emissions scenario. Optimal climate policy changes from gradual emissions reductions starting in 2050 to full decarbonization by 2050 when mortality is considered.

scholarly journals The Geography of Excess Deaths in England during the Covid-19 pandemic: Longer term impacts and monthly dynamics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Breen ◽  
John Ermisch
Keyword(s):  
Social Deprivation ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Social Background ◽  
Rapid Decline ◽  
White Population ◽  
Excess Death ◽  
The Social ◽  
Local Areas ◽  
Rate Of Decline ◽  
Related Mortality

Physical social interaction relevant to the spread of infectious diseases occurs, by its nature, at a local level. If infection and related mortality are associated with social background, it is therefore natural to study variation in them in relation to the social composition of local areas. The first part of the paper studies the geographical impact of Covid-19 infection on age-standardised sex-specific excess death rates during the peak months of the pandemic so far, March through May 2020. The second part examines monthly mortality dynamics in relation to predictions from a spatial SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model of infection introduced by Bisin and Moro (2020). The analysis indicates that during the peak months of the Covid-19 pandemic, a larger non-white population and higher social deprivation in an area were associated with higher excess mortality, particularly among men. Regarding dynamics, higher population density accelerated the growth in mortality during the upsurge in infection and increased its rate of decline after the peak of the epidemic, thereby producing a more peaked mortality profile. There is also evidence of a slower post-peak decline in mortality in more socially deprived areas but a more rapid decline in areas with a larger non-white population.

scholarly journals Affected medical services in Iwate prefecture in the absence of a COVID-19 outbreak

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noriyuki Sasaki ◽  
Satoshi S. Nishizuka
Keyword(s):  
Medical Services ◽  
Excess Death ◽  
The Past ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
The Social ◽  
Regional Medical ◽  
Service Activity ◽  
National Emergency ◽  
Iwate Prefecture ◽  
Excess Deaths

AbstractThe Japanese government has declared a national emergency and travel entry ban since the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic began. As of June 19, 2020, there have been no confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Iwate. Here, we analyzed the excess deaths as well as the number of patients and medical earnings due to the pandemic from prefectural hospitals located in one of the least-affected areas in Japan. From January to March 2020, the excess death rates per month were not significantly higher than the past-year average. Compared to January 2020, the numbers of both outpatients and inpatients in April 2020 showed a 5.2% and 6.1% decrease, respectively. Accordingly, the amount of medical earnings of both outpatients and inpatients in April 2020 showed a 3.0% and 6.3% decrease, respectively. Present analysis demonstrated that there were no excess deaths due to “unidentified” COVID-19 infections in Iwate; however, hospital budgetary management has been affected by the social restrictions. Regardless of COVID-19 infection spread, it may be difficult to maintain daily medical services if such low service activity continues in the existing hospitals. Additional longitudinal studies will be necessary to evaluate the effects of social restrictions on hospital management, but the true demand of regional medical services may emerge after this outbreak.

scholarly journals Using excess deaths and testing statistics to determine COVID-19 mortalities

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucas Böttcher ◽  
Maria R. D’Orsogna ◽  
Tom Chou
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
Disease Prevalence ◽  
Statistical Testing ◽  
Biased Sampling ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Sir Epidemic Model ◽  
Excess Death ◽  
Sir Epidemic ◽  
Excess Deaths

AbstractFactors such as varied definitions of mortality, uncertainty in disease prevalence, and biased sampling complicate the quantification of fatality during an epidemic. Regardless of the employed fatality measure, the infected population and the number of infection-caused deaths need to be consistently estimated for comparing mortality across regions. We combine historical and current mortality data, a statistical testing model, and an SIR epidemic model, to improve estimation of mortality. We find that the average excess death across the entire US from January 2020 until February 2021 is 9$$\%$$ % higher than the number of reported COVID-19 deaths. In some areas, such as New York City, the number of weekly deaths is about eight times higher than in previous years. Other countries such as Peru, Ecuador, Mexico, and Spain exhibit excess deaths significantly higher than their reported COVID-19 deaths. Conversely, we find statistically insignificant or even negative excess deaths for at least most of 2020 in places such as Germany, Denmark, and Norway.

Politics and the Environment: Nonlinear Instabilities Dominate

1994 ◽  
Vol 88 (2) ◽  
pp. 292-303 ◽  
Author(s):  
Courtney Brown
Keyword(s):  
Social Factors ◽  
Political Party ◽  
Longitudinal Change ◽  
Environmental Concerns ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Public Concern ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
White House ◽  
Systems Model ◽  
The Social

This analysis investigates a formal nonlinear systems model characterizing longitudinal change in the environment as a function of oscillating partisan control of the White House. It is assumed that one political party will tend to favor help for the environment despite some economic costs, whereas the other party will generally favor economic growth over environmental concerns. These policy changes affect the environment interactively with both public concern for particular environmental problems and the economic costs relating to environmental repair. This interaction with policy changes causes a disruption in the continuously evolving balance between the social factors that damage the environment and the environment's own ability to recover. The disruptive potential to the environment is considerably ameliorated with a reduction in the electoral cycling.

scholarly journals Where now for protected areas? Setting the stage for the 2014 World Parks Congress

Oryx ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 48 (4) ◽  
pp. 496-503 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nigel Dudley ◽  
Craig Groves ◽  
Kent H. Redford ◽  
Sue Stolton
Keyword(s):  
Nature Conservation ◽  
Protected Areas ◽  
Protected Area ◽  
Biological Diversity ◽  
Wildlife Trade ◽  
Convention On Biological Diversity ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
The Social ◽  
Transboundary Protected Areas

AbstractProtected areas are regarded as the most important tool in the conservation toolbox. They cover > 12% of the Earth's terrestrial area, with over half of this designated since 1970, and are thus a unique example of governments and other stakeholders consciously changing management of land and water at a significant scale. The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) has a global programme to complete ecologically-representative protected area networks, and this is driving the creation of large numbers of new protected areas. But there is also growing criticism of protected areas because of the social costs of protection and doubts about their effectiveness. We acknowledge this criticism but believe that it is over-stated and applied to a protected area model that has already been replaced by newer thinking. As protected areas are becoming more complex in concept and more complicated in management, we review the six most important changes affecting them over the last 2 decades: (1) a new protected area definition with more emphasis on nature conservation; (2) a plurality of management and governance models; (3) acknowledgement of wider protected area benefits beyond nature conservation; (4) greater social safeguards for protected areas; (5) evidence that protected areas are effective conservation tools; and (6) a new emphasis on larger protected areas, transboundary protected areas, connectivity conservation and landscape approaches. We conclude by considering fresh challenges as a result of policy changes and the global criminal wildlife trade, and consider the potential of the forthcoming 2014 IUCN World Parks Congress.

Educational Reform

2019 ◽  
pp. 414-430
Author(s):  
Joseph Ezale Cobbinah ◽  
Michael Yamoah
Keyword(s):  
Educational Reform ◽  
Educational Reforms ◽  
Social Injustice ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Global Perspectives ◽  
Entrepreneurial Skills ◽  
The Social ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Se ◽  
Education Delivery

This chapter aims at examining the nature of educational reforms in general, access how they impact on the lives of the citizens, and identify some of the global perspectives of educational reforms. It examines how education could be reformed to make it equitable, address inequality and social injustice that still persists in our society. Educational programs in many parts of the world continue to undergo reformation due to governments' policy changes or ideology, yet so many people seem not to be satisfied with the nature of education delivery. The chapter concludes that educational reform should not only aim at introducing just new courses, restructure the curriculum per se but should aim at ensuring that it equips the citizenry to make them develop entrepreneurial skills, be able to find solutions to their problems and self-reliant. Reforms must also address the social inequality, social injustice, and lack of equity, social and racial discrimination that still persists in our societies today.

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