scholarly journals Author Correction: Modelling and predicting the spatio‑temporal spread of COVID‑19, associated deaths and impact of key risk factors in England

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Sartorius ◽  
A. B. Lawson ◽  
R. L. Pullan
Author(s):  
Oksana Romaniv ◽  
◽  
Bohdan Klyapchuk ◽  

A study of the impact of especially contextual on COVID-19 factors of the epidemic (geopolitical, climatic, socio-economic integration, social, including religious, demographic and others) was conducted. The regional dynamics of the epidemic in the Scandinavian countries was analyzed. The spatio-temporal changes of the epidemic indicators in the conditions of loyalty to risk factors (Sweden) and in the conditions of controlled risks (in other countries of the Scandinavian region) were revealed. The current research of scientists on the formation of herd immunity in the population with and without vaccination programs was generalized. The article evaluated the quality of the vaccination program in Ukraine. The threshold indicator "herd immunity" and the number of months to achieve herd immunity in Ukraine without vaccination were calculated according to a special method.


Author(s):  
Michael Seger ◽  
Gerald Fischer ◽  
Michael Handler ◽  
Florian Hintringer ◽  
Christian Baumgartner

2012 ◽  
Vol 141 (5) ◽  
pp. 997-1008 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. CHOWDHURY ◽  
G. E. THEMUDO ◽  
M. SANDBERG ◽  
A. K. ERSBØLL

SUMMARYDespite a number of risk-factor studies in different countries, the epidemiology ofCampylobactercolonization in broilers, particularly spatial dependencies, is still not well understood. A series of analyses (visualization and exploratory) were therefore conducted in order to obtain a better understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution ofCampylobacterin the Danish broiler population. In this study, we observed a non-random temporal occurrence ofCampylobacter, with high prevalence during summer and low during winter. Significant spatio-temporal clusters were identified in the same areas in the summer months from 2007 to 2009. Range of influence between broiler farms were estimated at distances of 9·6 km and 13·5 km in different years. Identification of areas and time with greater risk indicates variable presence of risk factors with space and time. Implementation of safety measures on farms within high-risk clusters during summer could have an impact in reducing prevalence.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. e83487 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fenyang Tang ◽  
Yuejia Cheng ◽  
Changjun Bao ◽  
Jianli Hu ◽  
Wendong Liu ◽  
...  

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehdi Raei ◽  
Volker Johann Schmid ◽  
Behzad Mahaki

Cervical cancer in women is one of the most common cancers and breast cancer has grown dramatically in recent years. The purpose of this study was to map the incidence of breast and cervix uteri cancer among Iranian women over a 6-year period (2004-2009) searching for trend changes and risk factors. Cancer incidence data were extracted from the annual reports of the National Cancer Registry in Iran. Hierarchical Bayesian models, including random spatial and temporal effects was utilized together with bivariate, spatio-temporal shared component modelling. The provinces Tehran, Isfahan, Mazandaran and Gilan were found to have the highest relative risk (RR) of breast cancer, while the highest RR of cervix uteri cancer was observed in Tehran, Golestan, Khuzestan and Khorasan Razavi. Shared risk factors (smoking component) between the two cancers were seen to have the highest influence in Tehran, Khorasan Razavi, Yazd, Isfahan, Golestan, Khuzestan, Fars and Mazandaran, while the least were observed in Kohgiluyeh Boyerahmad. Apparent differences and distinctions between high-risk and low-risk provinces reveal a pattern of obvious dispersion for these cancers in Iran that should be considered when allocating healthcare resources and services in different areas.


2019 ◽  
Vol 85 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gebreyohans Gebru ◽  
Gebremedhin Romha ◽  
Abrha Asefa ◽  
Haftom Hadush ◽  
Muluberhan Biedemariam

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naeimehossadat Asmarian ◽  
Zahra Sharafi ◽  
Amin Mousavi ◽  
Reis Jacques ◽  
Ibon Tamayo ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Multiple Sclerosis (MS) remains to be a public health challenge, due to its unknown biological mechanisms and clinical impacts on young people. The prevalence of this disease in Iran is reported to be 5.30 to 74.28 per 100,000-person. Because of high prevalence of this disease in Fars province, the purpose of this study was to assess the spatial pattern of MS incidence rate by modeling both the effects of spatial dependence between neighboring regions and risk factors in a Bayesian Poisson model, which can lead to the improvement of health resource allocation decisions.Method: Data from 5,468 patients diagnosed with MS were collected, according to the McDonald’s criteria. New cases of MS were reported by the MS Society of Fars province from 1991 until 2016. The association between the percentage of people with low vitamin D intake, smoking, abnormal BMI and alcohol consumption in addition to spatial structure in a Bayesian spatio-temporal hierarchical model were used to determine the relative risk and trend of MS incidence rate in 29 counties of Fars province. Results: County-level crude incidence rates ranged from 0.22 to 11.31 cases per 100,000-person population. The highest relative risk was estimated at 1.80 in the county of Shiraz, the capital of Fars province, while the lowest relative risk was estimated at 0.11 in Zarindasht county in southern of Fars. The percentages of vitamin D supplementation intake and smoking were significantly associated with the incidence rate of MS. The results showed that 1% increase in vitamin D supplementation intake is associated with 2% decrease in the risk of MS and 1% increase in smoking is associated with 16% increase in the risk of MS.Conclusion: Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of MS incidence rate revealed that trend is less steep than the mean trend of this disease in the south and south east of Fars province, which is due to the association between the higher percentage of vitamin D supplementation intake and the lower percentage of smoking. Previous studies have also shown that smoking and low vitamin D, among all covariates or risk factors, might be associated with high incidence of MS.


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