scholarly journals COVID-19 vaccination and unemployment risk: lessons from the Italian crisis

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Valentina Pieroni ◽  
Angelo Facchini ◽  
Massimo Riccaboni
Keyword(s):  
Return To Work ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Advanced Stage ◽  
Mortality Reduction ◽  
Active Population ◽  
Unemployment Risk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Excess Deaths

AbstractThis paper analyzes the impact of mobility contraction on employee furlough and excess deaths in Italy during the COVID-19 crisis. Our approach exploits rainfall patterns across Italian administrative regions as a source of exogenous variation in human mobility to pinpoint the causal effect of mobility restrictions on excess deaths and furlough workers. Results confirm that the first countrywide lockdown has effectively curtailed the COVID-19 epidemics restricting it mainly to the northern part of the country, with the drawback of a countrywide increase in unemployment risk. Our analysis points out that a mobility contraction of 1% leads to a mortality reduction of 0.6%, but it induces an increase of 10% in Wage Guarantee Funds allowed hours. We discuss return-to-work policies and prioritizing policies for administering COVID-19 vaccines in the most advanced stage of a vaccination campaign when the healthy active population is left to be vaccinated.

scholarly journals 1218Estimating the causal effect of mobility on Dengue during the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 50 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kirstin Roster ◽  
Colm Connaughton ◽  
Francisco A Rodrigues
Keyword(s):  
Causal Effect ◽  
Experimental Situation ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
Average Treatment Effect ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Paulo State ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
São Paulo State ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background The COVID-19 pandemic led to a reduction in human mobility which occurred randomly (in time) and is not linked to any other Dengue risk factors. This gives rise to a quasi-experimental situation to assess the impact of mobility reduction on Dengue Fever in Brazilian cities using propensity score matching. Methods We match weeks during the peak pandemic period for 37 cities in São Paulo state with comparable prior periods based on instruments for mosquito population size and human susceptibility. By matching within cities, we also control for city-level characteristics, such as landscape or population density. We compute propensity scores using logistic regression and Random Forests and implement both one-to-one and one-to-many matching with calipers. Results We compare the Sample Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (SATT) across models and find variation in the direction of the causal effect. In 12 cities, mobility reductions are linked to more Dengue cases, while fewer cases are reported in 9 cities. The remaining cities are sensitive to the model chosen. Conclusions The SATT of mobility on Dengue varies across the cities in our sample, with more cities experiencing an increase in cases during the COVID-19 pandemic. Key messages A quasi-experimental analysis suggests that there is a a causal effect of mobility on Dengue that varies across cities in São Paulo state.

scholarly journals The "Great Lockdown": Inactive Workers and Mortality by Covid-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicola Borri ◽  
Francesco Drago ◽  
Chiara Santantonio ◽  
Francesco Sobbrio
Keyword(s):  
Causal Effect ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Mobility Patterns ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Active Population ◽  
Point Reduction ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Difference

In response to the Covid-19 outbreak, among other previous ``non-pharmaceutical interventions'', on March 22, 2020 the Italian Government imposed an economic lockdown and ordered the closing of all non-essential economic activities. This paper estimates the causal effect of this measure on mortality by Covid-19 and on mobility patterns. The identification of the causal effect exploits the variation in the number of active workers across municipalities induced by the economic lockdown. The difference-in-difference empirical design compares outcomes in municipalities above and below the median variation in the share of active population before and after the lockdown within a province, also controlling for municipality-specific dynamics, daily-shocks at the provincial level and municipal unobserved characteristics. Our results show that the intensity of the economic lockdown is associated to a statistically significant reduction in mortality by Covid-19 and, in particular, for age groups between 40-64 and older. Back of the envelope calculations indicate that 4,793 deaths were avoided, in the 26 days between April 5 to April 30, in the 3,518 municipalities which experienced a more intense lockdown. Assuming linearity, a 1 percentage point reduction in the share of active population caused a 1.32 percentage points reduction in mortality by Covid-19. We also find that the economic lockdown, as expected, led to a reduction in human mobility. Several robustness checks corroborate our empirical findings.

scholarly journals Human mobility and COVID-19 initial dynamics

2020 ◽  
Vol 101 (3) ◽  
pp. 1901-1919 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Maria Iacus ◽  
Carlos Santamaria ◽  
Francesco Sermi ◽  
Spyros Spyratos ◽  
Dario Tarchi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Coming Out ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Mobile Network ◽  
Systematic Analysis ◽  
Mobile Data ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Internal Mobility ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Excess Deaths

Abstract Countries in Europe took different mobility containment measures to curb the spread of COVID-19. The European Commission asked mobile network operators to share on a voluntarily basis anonymised and aggregate mobile data to improve the quality of modelling and forecasting for the pandemic at EU level. In fact, mobility data at EU scale can help understand the dynamics of the pandemic and possibly limit the impact of future waves. Still, since a reliable and consistent method to measure the evolution of contagion at international level is missing, a systematic analysis of the relationship between human mobility and virus spread has never been conducted. A notable exceptions are France and Italy, for which data on excess deaths, an indirect indicator which is generally considered to be less affected by national and regional assumptions, are available at department and municipality level, respectively. Using this information together with anonymised and aggregated mobile data, this study shows that mobility alone can explain up to 92% of the initial spread in these two EU countries, while it has a slow decay effect after lockdown measures, meaning that mobility restrictions seem to have effectively contribute to save lives. It also emerges that internal mobility is more important than mobility across provinces and that the typical lagged positive effect of reduced human mobility on reducing excess deaths is around 14–20 days. An analogous analysis relative to Spain, for which an IgG SARS-Cov-2 antibody screening study at province level is used instead of excess deaths statistics, confirms the findings. The same approach adopted in this study can be easily extended to other European countries, as soon as reliable data on the spreading of the virus at a suitable level of granularity will be available. Looking at past data, relative to the initial phase of the outbreak in EU Member States, this study shows in which extent the spreading of the virus and human mobility are connected. The findings will support policymakers in formulating the best data-driven approaches for coming out of confinement and mostly in building future scenarios in case of new outbreaks.

scholarly journals Impact of US vaccination strategy on COVID-19 wave dynamics

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Corentin Cot ◽  
Giacomo Cacciapaglia ◽  
Anna Sigridur Islind ◽  
María Óskarsdóttir ◽  
Francesco Sannino
Keyword(s):  
Renormalization Group ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
Flight Data ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Wave Dynamics ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pandemic Wave

AbstractWe employ the epidemic Renormalization Group (eRG) framework to understand, reproduce and predict the COVID-19 pandemic diffusion across the US. The human mobility across different geographical US divisions is modelled via open source flight data alongside the impact of social distancing for each such division. We analyse the impact of the vaccination strategy on the current pandemic wave dynamics in the US. We observe that the ongoing vaccination campaign will not impact the current pandemic wave and therefore strict social distancing measures must still be enacted. To curb the current and the next waves our results indisputably show that vaccinations alone are not enough and strict social distancing measures are required until sufficient immunity is achieved. Our results are essential for a successful vaccination strategy in the US.

scholarly journals Assessing the Impact of Human Mobility to Predict Regional Excess Death in Ecuador

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leticia Cuellar ◽  
Irene Torres ◽  
Ethan Obie Romero-Severson ◽  
Riya Mahesh ◽  
Nathaniel Ortega ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Human Mobility ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Sharp Decrease ◽  
Progressive Increase ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Excess Death ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Global Trend ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Excess Deaths

COVID-19 outbreaks have had high mortality in low- and medium-income countries such as Ecuador. Human mobility is an important factor influencing the spread of diseases possibly leading to a high burden of disease at the country level. Drastic control measures, such as complete lockdown are effective epidemic controls, yet in practice, one hopes that a partial shutdown would suffice. It is an open problem to determine how much mobility can be allowed while controlling an outbreak. In this paper, we use statistical models to relate human mobility to the excess death in Ecuador while controlling for demographic factors. The mobility index provided by GRANDATA, based on mobile phone users, represents the change of number of out-of-home events with respect to a benchmark date (March 2nd, the first date the data is available). The study confirms the global trend that more men are dying than expected compared to women, and that people under 30 show less deaths than expected. Specifically, individuals in the age groups younger than 20, we found have their death rate reduced during the pandemic between 22% and 27% of the expected deaths in the absence of COVID-19. The weekly median mobility time series shows a sharp decrease in human mobility immediately after a national lockdown was declared on March 17, 2020 and a progressive increase towards the pre-lockdown level within two months. Relating median mobility to excess death shows a lag in its effect: first, a decrease in mobility in the previous two to three weeks decreases the excess death and more novel, we found that an increase of mobility variability four weeks prior, increases the number of excess deaths.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of human mobility to predict regional excess death in Ecuador

2022 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Leticia Cuéllar ◽  
Irene Torres ◽  
Ethan Romero-Severson ◽  
Riya Mahesh ◽  
Nathaniel Ortega ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Human Mobility ◽  
Sharp Decrease ◽  
Progressive Increase ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Excess Death ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Country Level ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Excess Deaths

AbstractCOVID-19 outbreaks have had high mortality in low- and middle-income countries such as Ecuador. Human mobility is an important factor influencing the spread of diseases possibly leading to a high burden of disease at the country level. Drastic control measures, such as complete lockdown, are effective epidemic controls, yet in practice one hopes that a partial shutdown would suffice. It is an open problem to determine how much mobility can be allowed while controlling an outbreak. In this paper, we use statistical models to relate human mobility to the excess death in Ecuador while controlling for demographic factors. The mobility index provided by GRANDATA, based on mobile phone users, represents the change of number of out-of-home events with respect to a benchmark date (March 2nd, 2020). The study confirms the global trend that more men are dying than expected compared to women, and that people under 30 show less deaths than expected, particularly individuals younger than 20 with a death rate reduction between 22 and 27%. The weekly median mobility time series shows a sharp decrease in human mobility immediately after a national lockdown was declared on March 17, 2020 and a progressive increase towards the pre-lockdown level within two months. Relating median mobility to excess deaths shows a lag in its effect: first, a decrease in mobility in the previous two to three weeks decreases excess death and, more novel, we found an increase of mobility variability four weeks prior increases the number of excess deaths.

Syrian Crisis and Migration

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 181-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pinar Yazgan ◽  
Deniz Eroglu Utku ◽  
Ibrahim Sirkeci
Keyword(s):  
Human Mobility ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Host Countries ◽  
Syrian Crisis ◽  
Mass Migration ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Europe Today ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Near Future

With the growing insurrections in Syria in 2011, an exodus in large numbers have emerged. The turmoil and violence have caused mass migration to destinations both within the region and beyond. The current "refugee crisis" has escalated sharply and its impact is widening from neighbouring countries toward Europe. Today, the Syrian crisis is the major cause for an increase in displacement and the resultant dire humanitarian situation in the region. Since the conflict shows no signs of abating in the near future, there is a constant increase in the number of Syrians fleeing their homes. However, questions on the future impact of the Syrian crisis on the scope and scale of this human mobility are still to be answered. As the impact of the Syrian crisis on host countries increases, so does the demand for the analyses of the needs for development and protection in these countries. In this special issue, we aim to bring together a number of studies examining and discussing human mobility in relation to the Syrian crisis.

Changes in rehabilitation actors’ mental health literacy and support to employers: An evaluation of the SEAM intervention

Work ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Annika Lexén ◽  
Maria Emmelin ◽  
Lars Hansson ◽  
Bengt Svensson ◽  
Susann Porter ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Health Literacy ◽  
Return To Work ◽  
Mental Health Literacy ◽  
Mental Health Problems ◽  
Health Problems ◽  
Service Users ◽  
Rehabilitation Professionals ◽  
Knowledge And Beliefs ◽  
The Impact

BACKGROUND: Lack of mental health literacy among rehabilitation professionals and employers in the return-to-work of persons with mental health problems resulted in the development of a three-day group training program, the Support to Employers from rehabilitation Actors about Mental health (SEAM) intervention. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of SEAM on rehabilitation professionals’ knowledge and beliefs, attitudes, and supporting behaviors towards people with mental health problems and employers as part of the return-to-work process. METHODS: In this longitudinal study, 94 rehabilitation professionals were included. Data were collected prior to (T1), immediately after (T2) and 6 months after SEAM training (T3) using knowledge and attitude scales and a questionnaire on supporting behaviors. SEAM includes training in Mental Health First Aid, presentations and discussions on current research on work and mental health, and strategies and communication guidelines to use when meeting service users and employers as part of the return-to-work of persons with mental health problems. SEAM also includes a homepage with targeted employer information. Data were analyzed using non-parametric statistics. RESULTS: SEAM significantly increased rehabilitation professionals’ knowledge of mental health (T1-T2: z = –2.037, p = 0.042; T2-T3: z = –5.093, p = 0.001), and improved their attitudes towards persons with mental health problems (T1-T2: z = 4.984, p = 0.001). Professionals (50–60%) also estimated that they had increased their use of supporting strategies towards service users and employers. CONCLUSIONS: The study suggests that SEAM can increase mental health literacy among rehabilitation professionals and lead to a greater focus on service users’ resources and work ability, as well as on employers’ support needs.

scholarly journals Impact of temperature and relative humidity on the transmission of COVID-19: a modelling study in China and the United States

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. e043863
Author(s):  
Jingyuan Wang ◽  
Ke Tang ◽  
Kai Feng ◽  
Xin Lin ◽  
Weifeng Lv ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
The United States ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Higher Temperature ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact

ObjectivesWe aim to assess the impact of temperature and relative humidity on the transmission of COVID-19 across communities after accounting for community-level factors such as demographics, socioeconomic status and human mobility status.DesignA retrospective cross-sectional regression analysis via the Fama-MacBeth procedure is adopted.SettingWe use the data for COVID-19 daily symptom-onset cases for 100 Chinese cities and COVID-19 daily confirmed cases for 1005 US counties.ParticipantsA total of 69 498 cases in China and 740 843 cases in the USA are used for calculating the effective reproductive numbers.Primary outcome measuresRegression analysis of the impact of temperature and relative humidity on the effective reproductive number (R value).ResultsStatistically significant negative correlations are found between temperature/relative humidity and the effective reproductive number (R value) in both China and the USA.ConclusionsHigher temperature and higher relative humidity potentially suppress the transmission of COVID-19. Specifically, an increase in temperature by 1°C is associated with a reduction in the R value of COVID-19 by 0.026 (95% CI (−0.0395 to −0.0125)) in China and by 0.020 (95% CI (−0.0311 to −0.0096)) in the USA; an increase in relative humidity by 1% is associated with a reduction in the R value by 0.0076 (95% CI (−0.0108 to −0.0045)) in China and by 0.0080 (95% CI (−0.0150 to −0.0010)) in the USA. Therefore, the potential impact of temperature/relative humidity on the effective reproductive number alone is not strong enough to stop the pandemic.

scholarly journals Modelling the impact of delaying vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 assuming unlimited vaccine supply

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcos Amaku ◽  
Dimas Tadeu Covas ◽  
Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho ◽  
Raymundo Soares Azevedo ◽  
Eduardo Massad
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
The State ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
The World ◽  
The Moment ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background At the moment we have more than 177 million cases and 3.8 million deaths (as of June 2021) around the world and vaccination represents the only hope to control the pandemic. Imperfections in planning vaccine acquisition and difficulties in implementing distribution among the population, however, have hampered the control of the virus so far. Methods We propose a new mathematical model to estimate the impact of vaccination delay against the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the number of cases and deaths due to the disease in Brazil. We apply the model to Brazil as a whole and to the State of Sao Paulo, the most affected by COVID-19 in Brazil. We simulated the model for the populations of the State of Sao Paulo and Brazil as a whole, varying the scenarios related to vaccine efficacy and compliance from the populations. Results The model projects that, in the absence of vaccination, almost 170 thousand deaths and more than 350 thousand deaths will occur by the end of 2021 for Sao Paulo and Brazil, respectively. If in contrast, Sao Paulo and Brazil had enough vaccine supply and so started a vaccination campaign in January with the maximum vaccination rate, compliance and efficacy, they could have averted more than 112 thousand deaths and 127 thousand deaths, respectively. In addition, for each month of delay the number of deaths increases monotonically in a logarithmic fashion, for both the State of Sao Paulo and Brazil as a whole. Conclusions Our model shows that the current delay in the vaccination schedules that is observed in many countries has serious consequences in terms of mortality by the disease and should serve as an alert to health authorities to speed the process up such that the highest number of people to be immunized is reached in the shortest period of time.

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