scholarly journals Latent negative precipitation for the delineation of a zero-precipitation area in spatial interpolations

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Taesam Lee ◽  
Ju-young Shin

AbstractThe spatial interpolation of precipitation has been employed in a number of fields, including by spatially downscaling the Global Circulation Model (GCM) to a finer scale. Most precipitation events become more sporadic when the coverage area increases (i.e., a portion of the points experience zero precipitation). However, spatial interpolations of precipitation generally ignore these dry areas, and the interpolated grids are filled with certain precipitation amounts. Subsequently, no delineation of dry and wet regions can be made. Therefore, the current study suggested a novel approach to determine dry areas in spatial interpolations of precipitation events by assigning latent negative precipitation (LNP) to points with observed precipitation values of zero. The LNP-assigned points are then employed in a spatial interpolation. After that, the dry region can be determined using the negative region (i.e., points with zero precipitation). The magnitude of LNP can be defined by multiplying the precipitation values of neighboring stations by a tuning parameter. The LNP method and the tuning parameter are tested on weather stations covering South Korea. The results indicate that the proposed LNP method can be suitable for the spatial interpolation of precipitation events by delineating dry and wet regions. Additionally, the tuning parameter plays a special role in that it increases in value with longer precipitation durations and denser networks. A value of 0.5–1.5 can be suggested for the tuning parameter as a rule of thumb when high accuracy for final products of interpolated precipitation is not critical. For future studies, the LNP model derived herein can be tested over much larger areas, such as the United States, and the model can also be easily adopted for other variables with spatially sporadic values.

2020 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-103
Author(s):  
Hardik A. Marfatia

In this paper, I undertake a novel approach to uncover the forecasting interconnections in the international housing markets. Using a dynamic model averaging framework that allows both the coefficients and the entire forecasting model to dynamically change over time, I uncover the intertwined forecasting relationships in 23 leading international housing markets. The evidence suggests significant forecasting interconnections in these markets. However, no country holds a constant forecasting advantage, including the United States and the United Kingdom, although the U.S. housing market's predictive power has increased over time. Evidence also suggests that allowing the forecasting model to change is more important than allowing the coefficients to change over time.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannah B. Elam ◽  
Stephanie M. Perez ◽  
Jennifer J. Donegan ◽  
Daniel J. Lodge

AbstractPost-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a prevalent condition affecting approximately 8% of the United States population and 20% of United States combat veterans. In addition to core symptoms of the disorder, up to 64% of individuals diagnosed with PTSD experience comorbid psychosis. Previous research has demonstrated a positive correlation between symptoms of psychosis and increases in dopamine transmission. We have recently demonstrated projections from the paraventricular nucleus of the thalamus (PVT) to the nucleus accumbens (NAc) can regulate dopamine neuron activity in the ventral tegmental area (VTA). Specifically, inactivation of the PVT leads to a reversal of aberrant dopamine system function and psychosis-like behavior. The PVT receives dense innervation from orexin containing neurons, therefore, targeting orexin receptors may be a novel approach to restore dopamine neuron activity and alleviate PTSD-associated psychosis. In this study, we induced stress-related pathophysiology in male Sprague Dawley rats using an inescapable foot-shock procedure. We observed a significant increase in VTA dopamine neuron population activity, deficits in sensorimotor gating, and hyperresponsivity to psychomotor stimulants. Administration of selective orexin 1 receptor (OX1R) and orexin 2 receptor (OX2R) antagonists (SB334867 and EMPA, respectively) or the FDA-approved, dual-orexin receptor antagonist, Suvorexant, were found to reverse stress-induced increases in dopamine neuron population activity. However, only Suvorexant and SB334867 were able to reverse deficits in behavioral corelates of psychosis. These results suggest that the orexin system may be a novel pharmacological target for the treatment of comorbid psychosis related to PTSD.


2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Goswami ◽  
J. Baruah

Concentrations of atmospheric pollutants are strongly influenced by meteorological parameters like rainfall, relative humidity and wind advection. Thus accurate specifications of the meteorological fields, and their effects on pollutants, are critical requirements for successful modelling of air pollution. In terms of their applications, pollutant concentration models can be used in different ways; in one, short term high resolution forecasts are generated to predict and manage urban pollution. Another application of dynamical pollution models is to generate outlook for a given airbasin, such as over a large city. An important question is application-specific model configuration for the meteorological simulations. While a meso-scale model provides a high-resolution configuration, a global model allows better simulation of large-sale fields through its global environment. Our objective is to comparatively evaluate a meso-scale atmospheric model (MM5) and atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM) in simulating different species of pollutants over different airbasins. In this study we consider four locations: ITO (Central Delhi), Sirifort (South Delhi), Bandra (Mumbai) and Karve Road (Pune). The results show that both the model configurations provide comparable skills in simulation of monthly and annual loads, although the skill of the meso-scale model is somewhat higher, especially at shorter time scales.


2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adrian Gawedzki ◽  
K. Wayne Forsythe

Anthracene and arsenic contamination concentrations at various depths in the Buffalo River were analyzed in this study. Anthracene is known to cause damage to human skin and arsenic has been linked to lung and liver cancer. The Buffalo River is labelled as an Area of Concern defined by the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement between Canada and the United States. It has a long history of industrial activity located in its near vicinity that has contributed to its pollution. An ordinary kriging spatial interpolation technique was used to calculate estimates between sample locations for anthracene and arsenic at various depths. The results show that both anthracene and arsenic surface sediment (0–30 cm) is less contaminated than all subsurface depths. There is variability of pollution within the different subsurface levels (30–60 cm, 60–90 cm, 90–120 cm, 120–150 cm) and along the river course, but major clusters are identified throughout all depths for both anthracene and arsenic.


2007 ◽  
Vol 46 (9) ◽  
pp. 1423-1437 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles C. Ryerson ◽  
Allan C. Ramsay

Abstract Freezing precipitation is a persistent winter weather problem that costs the United States millions of dollars annually. Costs and infrastructure disruption may be greatly reduced by ice-storm warnings issued by the National Weather Service (NWS), and by the development of climatologies that allow improved design of infrastructure elements. However, neither the NWS nor developers of climatologies have had direct measurements of ice-storm accumulations as a basis for issuing warnings and developing storm design standards. This paper describes the development of an aviation routine/special weather report (METAR/SPECI) remark that will report quantitative ice thickness at over 650 locations during ice storms using new algorithms developed for the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS). Characteristics of the ASOS icing sensor, a field program to develop the algorithms, tests of accuracy, application of the algorithms, and sources of error are described, as is the implementation of an ice-thickness METAR/SPECI remark. The algorithms will potentially allow freezing precipitation events to be tracked with regard to ice accumulation in near–real time as they progress across the United States.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Maria De Girolamo ◽  
Youssef Brouziyne ◽  
Lahcen Benaabidate ◽  
Aziz Aboubdillah ◽  
Ali El Bilali ◽  
...  

<p>The non-perennial streams and rivers are predominant in the Mediterranean region and play an important ecological role in the ecosystem diversity in this region. This class of streams is particularly vulnerable to climate change effects that are expected to amplify further under most climatic projections. Understanding the potential response of the hydrologic regime attributes to climatic stress helps in planning better conservation and management strategies. Bouregreg watershed (BW) in Morocco, is a strategic watershed for the region with a developed non-perennial stream network, and with typical assets and challenges of most Mediterranean watersheds. In this study, a hybrid modeling approach, based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and Indicator of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) program, was used to simulate the response of BW's stream network to climate change during the period: 2035-2050. Downscaled daily climate data from the global circulation model CNRM-CM5 were used to force the hybrid modeling framework over the study area. Results showed that, under the changing climate, the magnitude of the alteration will be different across the stream network; however, almost the entire flow regime attributes will be affected. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the average number of zero-flow days will rise up from 3 to 17.5 days per year in some streams, the timing of the maximum flow was calculated to occur earlier by 17 days than in baseline, and the timing of the minimal flow should occur later by 170 days in some streams. The used modeling approach in this study contributed in identifying the most vulnerable streams in the BW to climate change for potential prioritization in conservation plans.</p>


2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-21

Received 30 January 2021. Accepted for publication 20 March 2021 The Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on Their Destruction (BTWC) does not have a legally binding verification regime. An attempt by the Ad Hoc Group of Experts, created by the UN Committee on Disarmament, to strengthen the BTWC by developing a legally binding document – the Protocol, was blocked by the United States in July 2001. The purpose of this work is to study the history, main provisions, significance and reasons for not signing the Protocol to the BTWC. The attention is paid to the events in biological weapons control, which have led a number of countries to the understanding of the necessity to develop the Protocol. The background of the US actions to block this document is the subject of special consideration. During the Second Review Conference on the Implementation of the Convention (8–25 September 1986, Geneva) the USSR, the German Democratic Republic and the Hungarian People's Republic proposed to develop and adopt the Protocol as an addition to the BTWC. This document was supposed to establish general provisions, definitions of terms, lists of agents and toxins, lists of equipment that was present or used at production facilities, threshold quantities of biological agents designed to assess means and methods of protection. The proposed verification mechanism was based on three «pillars»: initial declarations with the basic information about the capabilities of each State Party; inspections to assess the reliability of the declarations; investigations to verify and confirm or not confirm the alleged non-compliance with the Convention. The verification regime was to be under the control of an international organization – the Organization for the Prohibition of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons. However, the US military and pharmaceutical companies opposed the idea of international inspections. The then US Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, John Robert Bolton II, played a special role in blocking the Protocol. During the Fifth Review Conference in December 2001, he demanded the termination of the Ad Hoc Group of Experts mandate for negotiations under the pretext that any international agreement would constrain US actions. The current situation with biological weapons control should not be left to chance. Measures to strengthen the BTWC should be developed, taking into account the new fundamental changes in dual-use biotechnology. It should be borne in mind, that the Protocol, developed in the 1990s, is outdated nowadays.


2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (9_suppl) ◽  
pp. 48S-55S ◽  
Author(s):  
Mateo Porres–Aguilar ◽  
Javier E. Anaya-Ayala ◽  
Gustavo A. Heresi ◽  
Belinda N. Rivera-Lebron

Pulmonary embolism represents the third most common cause of cardiovascular death in the United States. Reperfusion therapeutic strategies such as systemic thrombolysis, catheter directed therapies, surgical pulmonary embolectomy, and cardiopulmonary support devices are currently available for patients with high- and intermediate-high–risk pulmonary embolism. However, deciding on optimal therapy may be challenging. Pulmonary embolism response teams have been designed to facilitate multidisciplinary decision-making with the goal to improve quality of care for complex cases with pulmonary embolism. Herein, we discuss the current role and strategies on how to leverage the strengths from pulmonary embolism response teams, its possible worldwide adoption, and implementation to improve survival and change the paradigm in the care of a potentially deadly disease.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document