scholarly journals Famines and likelihood of consecutive megadroughts in India

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vimal Mishra ◽  
Saran Aadhar
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Summer Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Future ◽  
Community Earth System Model ◽  
The Pacific Ocean

AbstractConsecutive failures in the summer monsoon rainfall led to widespread and severe droughts with profound implications for agricultural activities in India. However, the likelihood of successive megadroughts in India’s past and future climate remain poorly understood. Using Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA), we show that the major famines that affected millions of people during 1200–2018 were linked with summer monsoon droughts. Four megadroughts covering more than 40% of the country occurred for two consecutive summer monsoon seasons during 1200–2018. The most recent and severe megadrought occurred in 2002–2003. Simulations from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) for the last millennium (850–2005) ensemble (LME) show that the likelihood of two and three-year consecutive megadroughts during the summer monsoon is about 0.7 and 0.3 events per 100 years, respectively. Large ensemble simulations from CESM (CESM-LE) show a decline in the frequency of megadroughts in the future. Summer monsoon megadroughts are strongly associated with the warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the Pacific Ocean in the past and future climate. Substantial warming under the projected future climate can cause megadroughts under near-normal precipitation during the summer monsoon season. Despite the projected decline in the likelihood of the summer monsoon megadroughts under the warming climate, megadroughts in the future can have considerable implications for India’s food production and water availability.

scholarly journals Spatial Patterns of Preinstrumental Moisture Variability in the Southern Canadian Cordillera

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (15) ◽  
pp. 2847-2863 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma Watson ◽  
Brian H. Luckman
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Canadian Cordillera ◽  
Entire Area ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Dry Conditions ◽  
The Pacific Ocean ◽  
Instrumental Records ◽  
Precipitation Records

Abstract Extreme wet and dry intervals of the last 350 yr in the Canadian Cordillera and adjacent United States are examined using a network of 25 tree-ring-based precipitation and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) reconstructions. Reconstructed twentieth-century-mapped patterns compare well with patterns based on the instrumental records at both annual and decadal scales. During the most extreme events, dry conditions occurred over the entire area. The longest widespread drought in the last 350 yr occurred from 1917 to 1941. Shorter intervals of more severely dry conditions occurred in the early 1720s, 1750s, 1790s, 1860s–70s, and the 1890s. Many of the driest individual years and most extreme dry periods of <7 yr are reconstructed for the eighteenth century. The longest, wettest periods identified by these reconstructions occurred in the early twentieth century. In agreement with published studies that explore links between instrumental precipitation records from the region and conditions in the Pacific Ocean, the reconstructed records show that drier (wetter)-than-normal conditions are associated with El Niño (La Niña) events and the positive (negative) phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO).

scholarly journals Variation of summer monsoon rainfall over India in El-Ninos

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 48 (3) ◽  
pp. 413-420
Author(s):  
D.A. MOOLEY
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Percent Level ◽  
Central India ◽  
Summer Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Pacific Region ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Second Category

ABSTRACT. El Ninos which occurred during 1871-1990 are divided into two categories of events. The first category, EW, consists of the El Ninos in which the equatorial southeast (ESE) Pacific region (0-10° S; 80°W-180°W) experienced a Warn1ing phase as defined by suitable objective criteria, and the second category, E, consists of El Ninos in which the ESE Pacific region did not experience the warming phase. Sea surface temperature rise as well as anomaly over the Pacific region, summer monsoon rainfall over India and over its meteorological sub-divisions, in the categories EW and E are compared. Area-averaged rainfall of India for the summer monsoon season and for each of the months July and September are significantly (at 0.1 percent level) lower in EW events in comparison to those in E events. The summer monsoon rainfall of each of the 12 sub-divisions, from northwest and central India constituting about 50 per cent of the Indian plains, is significantly lower in EW events than that in E events, the highest rainfall deficiency in EW events being in the westernmost sub-divisions, i.e., West Rajasthan and Saurashtra-Kutch. Possible causes for the same have also been discussed.    

Increasing aridity over the past 223 years in the Nepal Himalaya inferred from a tree-ring δ18O chronology

The Holocene ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 22 (7) ◽  
pp. 809-817 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masaki Sano ◽  
R Ramesh ◽  
MS Sheshshayee ◽  
R Sukumar
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Function Analysis ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Nepal Himalaya ◽  
The Past ◽  
Surface Temperatures

A tree-ring δ18O chronology of Abies spectabilis from the Nepal Himalaya was established to study hydroclimate in the summer monsoon season over the past 223 years (ad 1778–2000). Response function analysis with ambient climatic records revealed that tree-ring δ18O was primarily controlled by the amount of precipitation and relative humidity during the monsoon season (June–September). Since tree-ring δ18O was simultaneously correlated with temperature, drought history in the monsoon season was reconstructed by calibrating against the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Our reconstruction that accounts for 33.7% of the PDSI variance shows a decreasing trend of precipitation/moisture over the past two centuries, and reduction of monsoon activity can be found across different proxy records from the Himalaya and Tibet. Spatial correlation analysis with global sea surface temperatures suggests that the tropical oceans play a role in modulating hydroclimate in the Nepal Himalaya. Although the dynamic mechanisms of the weakening trend of monsoon intensity still remain to be analyzed, rising sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean could be responsible for the reduction of summer monsoon.

scholarly journals Interannual Variation of the Summer Rainfall Center in the South China Sea

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (19) ◽  
pp. 7909-7931 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tsing-Chang Chen ◽  
Jenq-Dar Tsay ◽  
Jun Matsumoto
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Interannual Variation ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Summer Rainfall ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Monsoon Trough ◽  
Summer Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Tropical Depression ◽  
Easterly Wave

Abstract A northwest–southeast-oriented summer monsoon trough exists between northern Indochina and northwestern Borneo. Ahead of this the South China Sea (SCS) trough is located at a convergent center west of the Philippines, which provides an environment favorable for rain-producing synoptic systems to produce rainfall over this center and form the SCS summer rainfall center. Revealed from the x–t diagram for rainfall, this rainfall center is developed by multiple-scale processes involved with the SCS trough (TR), tropical depression (TY), interaction of the SCS trough with the easterly wave/tropical depression (EI), and easterly wave (EW). It is found that 56% of this rainfall center is produced by the SCS trough, while 41% is generated by the other three synoptic systems combined. Apparently, the formation of the SCS summer monsoon rainfall center is contributed to by these four rain-producing synoptic systems from the SCS and the Philippines Sea. The Southeast Asian summer monsoon undergoes an interannual variation and exhibits an east–west-oriented cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomalous circulation centered at the western tropical Pacific east of the Luzon Strait. This circulation change is reflected by the deepening (filling) of the SCS summer monsoon trough, when the monsoon westerlies south of 15°N intensify (weaken). This interannual variation of the monsoon westerlies leads to the interannual variation of the SCS summer monsoon rainfall center to follow the Pacific–Japan oscillation of rainfall. The rainfall amount produced over this rainfall center during the weak monsoon season is about two-thirds of that produced during the strong monsoon season. The rain-production ratio between TR and TY + EI + EW is 60:38 during the strong monsoon season and 47:49 during the weak monsoon season.

scholarly journals Relationship between Indian summer monsoon rainfall and sea surface temperature anomalies over equatorial central and eastern Pacific

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 49 (2) ◽  
pp. 229-234
Author(s):  
V. THAPLIYAL ◽  
M. RAJEEVAN ◽  
S. R. PATIL
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Indian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Summer Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Sea surface temperature (SST) variations over the three key regions over equatorial Pacific, viz., Nino (1+2), Nino 3 and Nino 4 and their relationships with Indian summer monsoon rainfall have been examined in this study. On monthly scale, SST anomalies over the three key regions show an oscillatory type of lagged correlations with Indian monsoon rainfall, positive correlations almost one year before the monsoon season (CC's are of the order of 0.3) which gradually change to significant negative correlation peaking in September/October during/after the monsoon season. The variations on seasonal scale also exhibit the same pattern of monthly variations but more smooth in nature. Composites of similar monsoon years show that during deficient (excess) monsoon years SST anomalies over all the three regions have warmer (cooler) trend which starts about 6 months prior to monsoon season. Tendencies of SST anomalies from previous winter (DJF) to summer (MAM) seasons over Nino 3 and Nino 4 regions are better predictors than EI-Nino categories currently being used in IMD's operational LRF model. By using tendency of SST over EI- Nino -4 region, in place of the category of EI-Nino, the 16 parameter operational Power Regression Model of IMD has been modified. The new forecast model shows better reduction in the forecast error.

Climatic influences on fire regimes in montane forests of the southern Cascades, California, USA

2008 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 60 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. H. Taylor ◽  
V. Trouet ◽  
C. N. Skinner
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Montane Forests ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Response To Temperature ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Fire Extent

The relationship between climate variability and fire extent was examined in montane and upper montane forests in the southern Cascades. Fire occurrence and extent were reconstructed for seven sites and related to measures of reconstructed climate for the period 1700 to 1900. The climate variables included the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), summer temperature (TEMP), NINO3, a measure of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Fire extent at the site and regional scale was associated with dry and warm conditions in the year of the fire and regional fire extent was not associated with ENSO or PDO for the full period of analysis. The relationship between regional fire extent and climate was not stable over time. The associations of fire extent with PDSI and TEMP were only significant from ~1775 onward and the associations were strongest between 1805 and 1855. PDO and fire extent were also associated during the 1805–1855 period, and ENSO was associated with fire extent before 1800, but not after. The interannual and interdecadal variability of the fire response to temperature and drought suggests that increased periods of regional fire activity may occur when high interannual PDSI variation coincides with warm decades.

Climate effects on historical fires (1630 - 1900) in Utah

2008 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter M. Brown ◽  
Emily K. Heyerdahl ◽  
Stanley G. Kitchen ◽  
Marc H. Weber
Keyword(s):  
Ponderosa Pine ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Mixed Conifer ◽  
Climate Effects ◽  
Fire Scar ◽  
Mixed Conifer Forests ◽  
The Pacific

We inferred climate effects on fire occurrence from 1630 to 1900 for a new set of crossdated fire-scar chronologies from 18 forested sites in Utah and one site in eastern Nevada. Years with regionally synchronous fires (31 years with fire at ≥20% of sites) occurred during drier than average summers and years with no fires at any site (100 years) were wetter than average. Antecedent wet summers were associated with regional-fire years in mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine forest types, possibly by affecting fine fuel amount and continuity. NINO3 (an index of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, ENSO) was significantly low during regional-fire years (La Niñas) and significantly high during non-fire years (El Niños). NINO3 also was high during years before regional-fire years. Although regional fire years occurred nearly twice as often as expected when NINO3 and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation were both in their cool (negative) phases, this pattern was not statistically significant. Palmer Drought Severity Index was important for fire occurrence in ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests across the study area but ENSO forcing was seen only in south-eastern sites. Results support findings from previous fire and climate studies, including a possible geographic pivot point in Pacific basin teleconnections at ~40°N.

1960 Chile

Tsunami ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 173-188
Author(s):  
James Goff ◽  
Walter Dudley
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Easter Island ◽  
The West ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Entire Country ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Pacific Ocean ◽  
Chilean Earthquake

The 1960 Chilean earthquake, the largest earthquake in recorded history, ruptured nearly 620 miles of seafloor, generated a tsunami well over 50 ft (15 m) high in Chile, and moved the entire country to the west in a matter of minutes as the ground shook. The tsunami following the earthquake caused Pacific-wide destruction. This chapter charts the progress of the tsunami across the Pacific Ocean, beginning with tsunami survivor stories from Chile and then moving to the Moai of Easter Island, bad decisions in Hawaii, and the unwelcome surprise of this distantly generated event for Japan. This was an ocean-wide disaster that provides important lessons regarding what happened in the past and what will happen in the future.

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