scholarly journals Climate change threatens Chinook salmon throughout their life cycle

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa G. Crozier ◽  
Brian J. Burke ◽  
Brandon E. Chasco ◽  
Daniel L. Widener ◽  
Richard W. Zabel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Chinook Salmon ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Pacific Salmon ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Life Stages ◽  
Recent Climate

AbstractWidespread declines in Atlantic and Pacific salmon (Salmo salar and Oncorhynchus spp.) have tracked recent climate changes, but managers still lack quantitative projections of the viability of any individual population in response to future climate change. To address this gap, we assembled a vast database of survival and other data for eight wild populations of threatened Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha). For each population, we evaluated climate impacts at all life stages and modeled future trajectories forced by global climate model projections. Populations rapidly declined in response to increasing sea surface temperatures and other factors across diverse model assumptions and climate scenarios. Strong density dependence limited the number of salmon that survived early life stages, suggesting a potentially efficacious target for conservation effort. Other solutions require a better understanding of the factors that limit survival at sea. We conclude that dramatic increases in smolt survival are needed to overcome the negative impacts of climate change for this threatened species.

Evaluation of Climate Change Impact on Sustainability of Tailan Underground Reservoir in China

2013 ◽  
Vol 726-731 ◽  
pp. 3249-3255
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Kwame Appiah-Adjei ◽  
Long Cang Shu ◽  
Kwaku Amaning Adjei ◽  
Cheng Peng Lu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Research Station ◽  
Recharge Sources ◽  
Underground Reservoir

In order to ensure availability of water throughout the year in the Tailan River basin of northwestern China, an underground reservoir has been constructed in the basin to augment the groundwater resource and efficiently utilize it. This study investigates the potential impact of future climate change on the reservoir by assessing its influence on sustainability of recharge sources to the reservoir. The methods employed involved using a combined Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) to downscale the climate variations of the basin from a global climate model and applying them through a simple soil water balance to quantify their impact on recharge to the reservoir. The results predict the current mean monthly temperature of the basin to increase by 2.01°C and 2.84°C for the future periods 2040-2069 and 2070-2099, respectively, while the precipitations are to decrease by 25% and 36% over the same periods. Consequently, the water balance analyses project the recharge to the reservoir to decrease by 37% and 49% for the periods 2040-2069 and 2070-2099, respectively. Thus the study provides useful information for sustainable management of the reservoir against potential future climate changes.

scholarly journals The Impact of Climate Change on Meningitis in Northwest Nigeria: An Assessment Using CMIP5 Climate Model Simulations

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 371-379 ◽  
Author(s):  
Auwal F. Abdussalam ◽  
Andrew J. Monaghan ◽  
Daniel F. Steinhoff ◽  
Vanja M. Dukic ◽  
Mary H. Hayden ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Treatment Strategies ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Annual Incidence ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Meningitis remains a major health burden throughout Sahelian Africa, especially in heavily populated northwest Nigeria with an annual incidence rate ranging from 18 to 200 per 100 000 people for 2000–11. Several studies have established that cases exhibit sensitivity to intra- and interannual climate variability, peaking during the hot and dry boreal spring months, raising concern that future climate change may increase the incidence of meningitis in the region. The impact of future climate change on meningitis risk in northwest Nigeria is assessed by forcing an empirical model of meningitis with monthly simulations of seven meteorological variables from an ensemble of 13 statistically downscaled global climate model projections from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Experiment (CMIP5) for representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5 scenarios, with the numbers representing the globally averaged top-of-the-atmosphere radiative imbalance (in W m−2) in 2100. The results suggest future temperature increases due to climate change have the potential to significantly increase meningitis cases in both the early (2020–35) and late (2060–75) twenty-first century, and for the seasonal onset of meningitis to begin about a month earlier on average by late century, in October rather than November. Annual incidence may increase by 47% ± 8%, 64% ± 9%, and 99% ± 12% for the RCP 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, in 2060–75 with respect to 1990–2005. It is noteworthy that these results represent the climatological potential for increased cases due to climate change, as it is assumed that current prevention and treatment strategies will remain similar in the future.

scholarly journals Assessing mean climate change signals in the global CORDEX-CORE ensemble

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claas Teichmann ◽  
Daniela Jacob ◽  
Armelle Reca Remedio ◽  
Thomas Remke ◽  
Lars Buntemeyer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Climate Change Information ◽  
Mean Climate

<p>The Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORE) simulation ensemble is an effort of the WCRP CORDEX community to provide high resolution regional climate change information for the major inhabited areas of the world and thus to generate the solid scientific basis for further research related to vulnerability, impact, adaptation and climate services (VIACS). This is especially important in those areas in which so far only few high-resolution simulations or only global comparatively coarse simulations were available. The driving simulations were selected to cover the spread of high, medium and low climate sensitivity at a global scale. Initially, the two RCMs REMO and RegCM4 were used to downscale these data global climate model output to a resolution of 0.22° (about 25km) while it is intended that the CORDEX CORE ensemble can then be extended by additional regional simulations to further increase the ensemble size and thus the representation of possible future climate change pathways.</p> <p>The aim of this study is to investigate and document the climate change information provided by the current CORDEX CORE ensemble with respect to mean climate change in different regions and in comparison to previously existing global climate information, especially those global climate simulations used as boundary forcing for CORDEX CORE, but also in comparison to the entire AR5-GCM ensemble. The analysis focuses on the representation of the AR5-GCM range of climate change signals by the CORDEX CORE ensemble with respect to mean temperature and precipitation changes and corresponding shifts in the annual cycles in the new AR6 IPCC physical reference regions. This also provides an indication for CORDEX CORE suitability for VIACS applications in each region.</p>

scholarly journals Early emergence in a butterfly causally linked to anthropogenic warming

2010 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 674-677 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael R. Kearney ◽  
Natalie J. Briscoe ◽  
David J. Karoly ◽  
Warren P. Porter ◽  
Melanie Norgate ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Regional Warming

There is strong correlative evidence that human-induced climate warming is contributing to changes in the timing of natural events. Firm attribution, however, requires cause-and-effect links between observed climate change and altered phenology, together with statistical confidence that observed regional climate change is anthropogenic. We provide evidence for phenological shifts in the butterfly Heteronympha merope in response to regional warming in the southeast Australian city of Melbourne. The mean emergence date for H. merope has shifted −1.5 days per decade over a 65-year period with a concurrent increase in local air temperatures of approximately 0.16°C per decade. We used a physiologically based model of climatic influences on development, together with statistical analyses of climate data and global climate model projections, to attribute the response of H. merope to anthropogenic warming. Such mechanistic analyses of phenological responses to climate improve our ability to forecast future climate change impacts on biodiversity.

scholarly journals Global changes, regional impacts : climate change in the Middle East

1999 ◽  
Vol 54 (3) ◽  
pp. 132-137 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. McNamara
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Political Conflict ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
Model Data ◽  
Comparison Results

Abstract. In the Middle East, an area where pressure on water resources is intensified by political conflict and natural scarcity, the possibility of future climate change looms as yet another compounding factor. An integrated approach, taking economic, social, political and climate factors into consideration, is embodied in the CLIMSOC model. Before using global model data for a future period as input into the regional scale CLIMSOC model, the global climate model data must first be tested for the present period. The work summarised here examines monthly preeipitation data from a Hadley Centre Global Climate Model, comparing it to an observed climatology, for the present period 1961–1990. The differences between the GCM and observed data are examined with an eye toward systematic discrepancies among the different months, spatial patterns and overall quantitative differences in preeipitation. Finally, a glimpse at future preeipitation, as estimated by the global climate model, is presented in the context of the comparison results.

scholarly journals Projecting malaria hazard from climate change in eastern Africa using large ensembles to estimate uncertainty

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (1s) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Leedale ◽  
Adrian M. Tompkins ◽  
Cyril Caminade ◽  
Anne E. Jones ◽  
Grigory Nikulin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Malaria Transmission ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Eastern Africa ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
East African Community ◽  
Recent Climate

The effect of climate change on the spatiotemporal dynamics of malaria transmission is studied using an unprecedented ensemble of climate projections, employing three diverse bias correction and downscaling techniques, in order to partially account for uncertainty in climate- driven malaria projections. These large climate ensembles drive two dynamical and spatially explicit epidemiological malaria models to provide future hazard projections for the focus region of eastern Africa. While the two malaria models produce very distinct transmission patterns for the recent climate, their response to future climate change is similar in terms of sign and spatial distribution, with malaria transmission moving to higher altitudes in the East African Community (EAC) region, while transmission reduces in lowland, marginal transmission zones such as South Sudan. The climate model ensemble generally projects warmer and wetter conditions over EAC. The simulated malaria response appears to be driven by temperature rather than precipitation effects. This reduces the uncertainty due to the climate models, as precipitation trends in tropical regions are very diverse, projecting both drier and wetter conditions with the current state-of-the-art climate model ensemble. The magnitude of the projected changes differed considerably between the two dynamical malaria models, with one much more sensitive to climate change, highlighting that uncertainty in the malaria projections is also associated with the disease modelling approach.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of global warming on worldwide open field tomato cultivation through CSIRO-Mk3·0 global climate model

2016 ◽  
Vol 155 (3) ◽  
pp. 407-420 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. S. SILVA ◽  
L. KUMAR ◽  
F. SHABANI ◽  
M. C. PICANÇO
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Open Field ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Current Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYTomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) is one of the most important vegetable crops globally and an important agricultural sector for generating employment. Open field cultivation of tomatoes exposes the crop to climatic conditions, whereas greenhouse production is protected. Hence, global warming will have a greater impact on open field cultivation of tomatoes rather than the controlled greenhouse environment. Although the scale of potential impacts is uncertain, there are techniques that can be implemented to predict these impacts. Global climate models (GCMs) are useful tools for the analysis of possible impacts on a species. The current study aims to determine the impacts of climate change and the major factors of abiotic stress that limit the open field cultivation of tomatoes in both the present and future, based on predicted global climate change using CLIMatic indEX and the A2 emissions scenario, together with the GCM Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)-Mk3·0 (CS), for the years 2050 and 2100. The results indicate that large areas that currently have an optimum climate will become climatically marginal or unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes due to progressively increasing heat and dry stress in the future. Conversely, large areas now marginal and unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes will become suitable or optimal due to a decrease in cold stress. The current model may be useful for plant geneticists and horticulturalists who could develop new regional stress-resilient tomato cultivars based on needs related to these modelling projections.

scholarly journals Downscaling a global climate model to simulate climate change over the US and the implication on regional and urban air quality

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 1429-1445 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Trail ◽  
A. P. Tsimpidi ◽  
P. Liu ◽  
K. Tsigaridis ◽  
Y. Hu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Southeastern Us ◽  
The Us ◽  
Ozone Levels

Abstract. Climate change can exacerbate future regional air pollution events by making conditions more favorable to form high levels of ozone. In this study, we use spectral nudging with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to downscale NASA earth system GISS modelE2 results during the years 2006 to 2010 and 2048 to 2052 over the contiguous United States in order to compare the resulting meteorological fields from the air quality perspective during the four seasons of five-year historic and future climatological periods. GISS results are used as initial and boundary conditions by the WRF regional climate model (RCM) to produce hourly meteorological fields. The downscaling technique and choice of physics parameterizations used are evaluated by comparing them with in situ observations. This study investigates changes of similar regional climate conditions down to a 12 km by 12 km resolution, as well as the effect of evolving climate conditions on the air quality at major US cities. The high-resolution simulations produce somewhat different results than the coarse-resolution simulations in some regions. Also, through the analysis of the meteorological variables that most strongly influence air quality, we find consistent changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels in four regions of the US during fall (western US, Texas, northeastern, and southeastern US), one region during summer (Texas), and one region where changes potentially would lead to better air quality during spring (Northeast). Changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels are increased temperatures and stagnation along with decreased precipitation and ventilation. We also find that daily peak temperatures tend to increase in most major cities in the US, which would increase the risk of health problems associated with heat stress. Future work will address a more comprehensive assessment of emissions and chemistry involved in the formation and removal of air pollutants.

THE SCIENCE UNDERLYING THE ISSUE OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND PROSPECTS FOR ADAPTATION

2001 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 689
Author(s):  
C.D. Mitchell ◽  
G.I. Pearman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Initial Response ◽  
Lower Atmosphere ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Atmospheric Concentration

The prospect of global-scale changes in climate resulting from changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations has produced a complex set of public and private- sector responses. This paper reviews several elements of this issue that are likely to be most important to industry.Scientific research continues to provide evidence to suggest that global climate will change significantly over the coming decades due to increases in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. Nonetheless, there exists a debate over the difference between observations of temperature retrieved from satellite and temperature measurements taken from the surface. Recent research undertaken to inform the debate is discussed, with the conclusion that there are real differences in trend between the surface and the lower atmosphere that can be explained in physical terms. Attention is turning to developing an understanding as to why climate model results show apparently consistent trends between the surface and the lower atmosphere, in contrast to these observations.While such uncertainties in the underlying science have been used to question whether action on the greenhouse issues is necessary, the initial response, as evidenced by international negotiations, has been to start mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. Adaptation to future climate change has received less attention than mitigation. A number of reasons for this are discussed, including the fact that regional scenarios of climate change are uncertain.The principles of risk management may be one way to manage the uncertainties associated with projections of regional climate change. Although the application of risk management to the potential impacts of climate change requires further investigation, elements of such a framework are identified, and include:Identifying the critical climate-related thresholds that are important to industry and its operations (for example, a 1-in-100 year return tropical cyclone).Using this understanding to analyse, and where possible quantify, industry’s pre-existing or baseline adaptive state through the use of sensitivity surfaces and quantified thresholds (for example, were facilities designed for a 1-in-100 event or a 1-in-500 year event?)Establishing probabilistic statements or scenarios of climate that are relevant to industry practice (for example, risk of a storm surge may be more important to operations than elevated wind strength; if so, what is the probability that an event will exceed the design threshold during the lifetime of the facility?).Bringing information on existing adaptive mechanisms together with climate scenarios to produce a quantitative risk assessment.Deciding on risk treatment (additional adaptive measures).

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