scholarly journals Pacific subsurface ocean temperature as a long-range predictor of South China tropical cyclone landfall

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan Sparks ◽  
Ralf Toumi
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
South China ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Warm Pool ◽  
Ocean Temperature ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Subsurface Ocean ◽  
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Landfall

Abstract Seasonal forecasts of the tropical cyclones which frequently make landfall along the densely populated South China coast are highly desirable. Here, we analyse observations of landfalling tropical cyclones in South China and of subsurface ocean temperatures in the Pacific warm pool region, and identify the possibility of forecasts of South China tropical cyclone landfall a year ahead. Specifically, we define a subsurface temperature index, subNiño4, and build a predictive model based on subNiño4 anomalies with a robust double cross-validated forecast skill against climatology of 23%, similar in skill to existing forecasts issued much later in the spring. We suggest that subNiño4 ocean temperatures precede the surface El Niño/Southern Oscillation state by about 12 months, and that the zonal shifts in atmospheric heating then change mid-level winds to steer tropical cyclones towards landfall in South China. We note that regional subsurface ocean temperature anomalies may permit atmospheric predictions in other locations at a longer range than is currently thought possible.

The Track Integrated Kinetic Energy of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

2013 ◽  
Vol 141 (7) ◽  
pp. 2383-2389 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Misra ◽  
S. DiNapoli ◽  
M. Powell
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Kinetic Energy ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Warm Pool ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Interannual Variations ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Atlantic Warm Pool ◽  
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

Abstract In this paper the concept of track integrated kinetic energy (TIKE) is introduced as a measure of seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and applied to seasonal variability in the Atlantic. It is similar in concept to the more commonly used accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) with an important difference that in TIKE the integrated kinetic energy (IKE) is accumulated for the life span of the Atlantic tropical cyclone. The IKE is, however, computed by volume integrating the 10-m level sustained winds of tropical strength or higher quadrant by quadrant, while ACE uses the maximum sustained winds only without accounting for the structure of the storm. In effect TIKE accounts for the intensity, duration, and size of the tropical cyclones. In this research, the authors have examined the seasonality and the interannual variations of the seasonal Atlantic TIKE over a period of 22 yr from 1990 to 2011. It is found that the Atlantic TIKE climatologically peaks in the month of September and the frequency of storms with the largest TIKE are highest in the eastern tropical Atlantic. The interannual variations of the Atlantic TIKE reveal that it is likely influenced by SST variations in the equatorial Pacific and in the Atlantic Oceans. The SST variations in the central equatorial Pacific are negatively correlated with the contemporaneous seasonal (June–November) TIKE. The size of the Atlantic warm pool (AWP) is positively correlated with seasonal TIKE.

Landfalling tropical cyclones activities in the south China: intensifying or weakening?

2011 ◽  
Vol 32 (12) ◽  
pp. 1815-1824 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiang Zhang ◽  
Wei Zhang ◽  
Xiaoqin Lu ◽  
Yongqin David Chen
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
South China ◽  
The South ◽  
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

A Parameter for Forecasting Tornadoes Associated with Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

2014 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 1238-1255 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew J. Onderlinde ◽  
Henry E. Fuelberg
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Stepwise Regression ◽  
Atlantic Coast ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Environmental Parameters ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Center Time

Abstract The authors develop a statistical guidance product, the tropical cyclone tornado parameter (TCTP), for forecasting the probability of one or more tornadoes during a 6-h period that are associated with landfalling tropical cyclones affecting the coastal Gulf of Mexico and the southern Atlantic coast. TCTP is designed to aid forecasters in a time-limited environment. TCTP provides a “quick look” at regions where forecasters can then conduct detailed analyses. The pool of potential predictors included tornado reports and tropical cyclone data between 2000 and 2008, as well as storm environmental parameters. The original pool of 28 potential predictors is reduced to six using stepwise regression and logistic regression. These six predictors are 0–3-km wind shear, 0–3-km storm relative helicity, azimuth angle of the tornado report from the tropical cyclone, distance from the cyclone’s center, time of day, and 950–1000-hPa convective available potential energy. Mean Brier scores and Brier skill scores are computed for the entire TCTP-dependent dataset and for corresponding forecasts produced by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). TCTP then is applied to four individual cyclone cases to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the parameter and compare its performance with SPC forecasts. Results show that TCTP has skill at identifying regions of tornado potential. However, tornadoes in some tropical systems are overpredicted, but underpredicted in others. TCTP 6-h forecast periods provide slightly poorer statistical performance than the 1-day tornado probability forecasts from SPC, probably because the SPC product includes forecaster guidance and because their forecasts are valid for longer periods (24 h).

Characteristics of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in the United States and Mexico: Climatology and Interannual Variability

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (8) ◽  
pp. 1247-1262 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua Larson ◽  
Yaping Zhou ◽  
R. Wayne Higgins
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

Abstract The climatology and interannual variability of landfalling tropical cyclones and their impacts on precipitation in the continental United States and Mexico are examined. The analysis is based on National Hurricane Center 6-hourly tropical cyclone track data for the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins and gridded daily U.S. precipitation data for the period August–October 1950–98. Geographic maps of total tropical cyclone strike days, and the mean and maximum percentage of precipitation due to tropical cyclones, are examined by month. To make the procedures objective, it is assumed that precipitation is symmetric about the storm’s center. While this introduces some uncertainty in the analysis, sensitivity tests show that this assumption is reasonable for precipitation within 5° of the circulation center. The relationship between landfalling tropical cyclones and two leading patterns of interannual climate variability—El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO)—are then examined. Relationships between tropical cyclone frequency and intensity and composites of 200-hPa geopotential height and wind shear anomalies are also examined as a function of ENSO phase and AO phase using classifications devised at the Climate Prediction Center. The data show that tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin is modulated on both seasonal and intraseasonal time scales by the AO and ENSO and that impact of the two modes of climate variability is greater together than apart. This suggests that, during La Niña conditions, atmospheric circulation is more conducive to activity in the main development region during AO-positive conditions than during AO-negative ones and that, during El Niño conditions, atmospheric circulation appears even less conducive to tropical cyclone development during the negative phase of the AO than during the positive phase.

scholarly journals Improvement in the Forecasting of Heavy Rainfall over South China in the DSAEF_LTP Model by Introducing the Intensity of the Tropical Cyclone

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (5) ◽  
pp. 1967-1980
Author(s):  
Ding Chenchen ◽  
Fumin Ren ◽  
Yanan Liu ◽  
John L. McBride ◽  
Tian Feng
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
South China ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Landfalling Typhoon ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Models

AbstractThe intensity of the tropical cyclone has been introduced into the Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast (DSAEF) for Landfalling Typhoon (or tropical cyclone) Precipitation (DSAEF_LTP) model. Moreover, the accumulated precipitation prediction experiments have been conducted on 21 target tropical cyclones with daily precipitation ≥ 100 mm in South China from 2012 to 2016. The best forecasting scheme for the DSAEF_LTP model is identified, and the performance of the prediction is compared with three numerical weather prediction models (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the Global Forecast System, and T639). The forecasting ability of the DSAEF_LTP model for heavy rainfall (accumulated precipitation ≥ 250 and ≥100 mm) improves when the intensity of the tropical cyclone is introduced, giving some advantages over the three numerical weather prediction models. The selection of analog tropical cyclones with a maximum intensity (during precipitation over land) equaling to or higher than the initial intensity of the target tropical cyclone gives better forecasts. The prediction accuracy for accumulated precipitation is higher for tropical cyclones with higher intensity and higher observed precipitation, with in both cases positive linear correlations with the threat score.

Spatial variations of North Atlantic landfalling tropical cyclone wind speed decay over the continental United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi-Jie Zhu ◽  
Jennifer M. Collins ◽  
Philip J. Klotzbach
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Gulf Coast ◽  
Spatial Variations ◽  
Decay Model ◽  
Weak Intensity ◽  
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

AbstractUnderstanding tropical cyclone wind speed decay during the post-landfall stage is critical for inland hazard preparation. This paper examines the spatial variation of wind speed decay of tropical cyclones over the continental United States. We find that tropical cyclones making landfall over the Gulf Coast decay faster within the first 24 hours after landfall than those making landfall over the Atlantic East Coast. The variation of the decay rate over the Gulf Coast remains larger than that over the Atlantic East Coast for tropical cyclones that had made landfall more than 24 hours prior. Besides an average weaker tropical cyclone landfall intensity, the near-parallel trajectory and the proximity of storms to the coastline also help to explain the slower post-landfall wind speed decay for Atlantic East Coast landfalling tropical cyclones. Tropical cyclones crossing the Florida peninsula only slowly weaken after landfall, with an average of less than 20% post-landfall wind speed drop while transiting the state. The existence of these spatial variations also brings into question the utility of a uniform wind decay model. While weak intensity decay over the Florida peninsula is well estimated by the uniform wind decay model, the error from the uniform wind decay model increases with tropical cyclones making direct landfall more parallel to the Atlantic East Coast. The underestimation of inland wind speed by the uniform wind decay model found over the western Gulf Coast brings attention to the role of land-air interactions in the decay of inland tropical cyclones.

scholarly journals The Role of Tropical Cyclones on the Total Precipitation in Cuba during the Hurricane Season from 1980 to 2016

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 1156
Author(s):  
José C. Fernández–Alvarez ◽  
Rogert Sorí ◽  
Albenis Pérez–Alarcón ◽  
Raquel Nieto ◽  
Luis Gimeno
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Warm Pool ◽  
Total Precipitation ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The North ◽  
Atlantic Warm Pool ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Great Heterogeneity ◽  
Del Rio

This study quantifies the amount of rainfall supplied by tropical cyclones (TCs) to Cuba. It uses the long–term global gridded Multi–Source Weighted–Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) v2 data set, with a resolution of 0.1° in latitude and longitude, and a temporal resolution of 3 h during the hurricane seasons from 1980–2016. During this study period, 146 TCs were identified within a 500–km radius of Cuba. The contribution of TCs to the total precipitation over Cuba during the cyclonic season was ~11%. The maximum contribution occurs in October and November, representing 18% and 28% of the total precipitation, respectively. The interannual precipitation contribution shows a positive correlation (~0.74) with the number of TCs, but without a significant trend for the period. A climatological spatial analysis of the rainfall associated with TCs revealed great heterogeneity, although the major contribution was observed along the southern coast of the eastern and central provinces of Cuba, and in the western province of Pinar del Río. No significant difference was observed between the number of TCs that affected Cuba and their rainfall contribution under the positive and negative phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. However, the negative phase of the NAO led to an increase in the genesis of TCs that later affected Cuba, which led to a greater contribution to precipitation compared to that obtained from TCs during the positive phase of this oscillation. Our results also confirm that anomalous warmth of the tropical Atlantic Ocean, revealed through the Atlantic Meridional Mode, and enlargement of the Atlantic Warm Pool, enhances the genesis in the North Atlantic Basin of the TCs that affect Cuba, which was associated with an increase of the rainfall contribution to the total precipitation compared to that calculated for TCs formed during the opposite phases.

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