Spatial variations of North Atlantic landfalling tropical cyclone wind speed decay over the continental United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi-Jie Zhu ◽  
Jennifer M. Collins ◽  
Philip J. Klotzbach
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Gulf Coast ◽  
Spatial Variations ◽  
Decay Model ◽  
Weak Intensity ◽  
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

AbstractUnderstanding tropical cyclone wind speed decay during the post-landfall stage is critical for inland hazard preparation. This paper examines the spatial variation of wind speed decay of tropical cyclones over the continental United States. We find that tropical cyclones making landfall over the Gulf Coast decay faster within the first 24 hours after landfall than those making landfall over the Atlantic East Coast. The variation of the decay rate over the Gulf Coast remains larger than that over the Atlantic East Coast for tropical cyclones that had made landfall more than 24 hours prior. Besides an average weaker tropical cyclone landfall intensity, the near-parallel trajectory and the proximity of storms to the coastline also help to explain the slower post-landfall wind speed decay for Atlantic East Coast landfalling tropical cyclones. Tropical cyclones crossing the Florida peninsula only slowly weaken after landfall, with an average of less than 20% post-landfall wind speed drop while transiting the state. The existence of these spatial variations also brings into question the utility of a uniform wind decay model. While weak intensity decay over the Florida peninsula is well estimated by the uniform wind decay model, the error from the uniform wind decay model increases with tropical cyclones making direct landfall more parallel to the Atlantic East Coast. The underestimation of inland wind speed by the uniform wind decay model found over the western Gulf Coast brings attention to the role of land-air interactions in the decay of inland tropical cyclones.

Characteristics of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in the United States and Mexico: Climatology and Interannual Variability

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (8) ◽  
pp. 1247-1262 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua Larson ◽  
Yaping Zhou ◽  
R. Wayne Higgins
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

Abstract The climatology and interannual variability of landfalling tropical cyclones and their impacts on precipitation in the continental United States and Mexico are examined. The analysis is based on National Hurricane Center 6-hourly tropical cyclone track data for the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins and gridded daily U.S. precipitation data for the period August–October 1950–98. Geographic maps of total tropical cyclone strike days, and the mean and maximum percentage of precipitation due to tropical cyclones, are examined by month. To make the procedures objective, it is assumed that precipitation is symmetric about the storm’s center. While this introduces some uncertainty in the analysis, sensitivity tests show that this assumption is reasonable for precipitation within 5° of the circulation center. The relationship between landfalling tropical cyclones and two leading patterns of interannual climate variability—El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO)—are then examined. Relationships between tropical cyclone frequency and intensity and composites of 200-hPa geopotential height and wind shear anomalies are also examined as a function of ENSO phase and AO phase using classifications devised at the Climate Prediction Center. The data show that tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin is modulated on both seasonal and intraseasonal time scales by the AO and ENSO and that impact of the two modes of climate variability is greater together than apart. This suggests that, during La Niña conditions, atmospheric circulation is more conducive to activity in the main development region during AO-positive conditions than during AO-negative ones and that, during El Niño conditions, atmospheric circulation appears even less conducive to tropical cyclone development during the negative phase of the AO than during the positive phase.

scholarly journals Tropical cyclone simulations over Bangladesh at convection permitting 4.4 km & 1.5 km resolution

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamish Steptoe ◽  
Nicholas Henry Savage ◽  
Saeed Sadri ◽  
Kate Salmon ◽  
Zubair Maalick ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Level Pressure ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Gust Speed

AbstractHigh resolution simulations at 4.4 km and 1.5 km resolution have been performed for 12 historical tropical cyclones impacting Bangladesh. We use the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting 5th generation Re-Analysis (ERA5) to provide a 9-member ensemble of initial and boundary conditions for the regional configuration of the Met Office Unified Model. The simulations are compared to the original ERA5 data and the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) tropical cyclone database for wind speed, gust speed and mean sea-level pressure. The 4.4 km simulations show a typical increase in peak gust speed of 41 to 118 knots relative to ERA5, and a deepening of minimum mean sea-level pressure of up to −27 hPa, relative to ERA5 and IBTrACS data. The downscaled simulations compare more favourably with IBTrACS data than the ERA5 data suggesting tropical cyclone hazards in the ERA5 deterministic output may be underestimated. The dataset is freely available from 10.5281/zenodo.3600201.

Shark Nursery Grounds of the Gulf of Mexico and the East Coast Waters of the United States

2007 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Gulf Coast ◽  
Atlantic Coast ◽  
The United States ◽  
Shark Species ◽  
Carcharhinus Plumbeus ◽  
Nursery Areas ◽  
Pesticide Metabolites

<em>Abstract.</em>—Because of their tendency to accumulate in estuaries and coastal regions, organochlorine (OC) contaminants such as pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) represent potential threats to the quality of essential fish habitat for many shark species. These compounds pose special risks to immature sharks in particular because of their ability to impair growth and sexual maturation in juvenile fish at environmentally relevant levels of exposure. In order to assess the extent of these risks in shark populations on the East Coast of the United States, the present study examined concentrations of 30 OC pesticides/pesticide metabolites and total PCBs in juvenile sandbar <em>Carcharhinus plumbeus </em>and blacktip <em>C. limbatus </em>sharks from seven major nursery areas in the western Atlantic Ocean and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Quantifiable levels of PCBs and 13 OC pesticides/ pesticide metabolites were detected via gas chromatography and mass spectrometry in liver of 25 young-of-the-year blacktip sharks from the southeastern U.S. Atlantic coast and three regions on Florida’s gulf coast: Cedar Key, Tampa Bay, and Charlotte Harbor. Similarly, quantifiable levels of PCBs and 14 OC pesticides/metabolites were detected in 23 juvenile <em>C. plumbeus </em>from three sites on the northeastern U.S. coast: middle Delaware Bay, lower Chesapeake Bay, and Virginia’s eastern shore. Liver OC concentrations in Atlantic sandbar and blacktip sharks were higher than expected and, in some cases, comparable with elevated levels observed in deep-sea and pelagic sharks. Although significantly lower than those observed in Atlantic sharks, pesticide and PCB levels in Florida blacktip sharks were similar to, if not greater than, OC concentrations reported in adults of other coastal shark species. Based on these data, OC contamination appears to pose significant threats to habitat quality in sandbar and blacktip shark nursery areas on the U.S. Atlantic coast.

Hurricane “Amanda”: Rediscovery of a Forgotten U.S. Civil War Florida Hurricane

2013 ◽  
Vol 94 (11) ◽  
pp. 1735-1742 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Chenoweth ◽  
C. J. Mock
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Civil War ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Natural Disaster ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Major Hurricane ◽  
The U.S ◽  
States History

Among the most unusual and unexpected hurricanes in United States history is the only hurricane to make landfall in the month of May. This recently rediscovered storm that struck northwest Florida on 28 May 1863 created a natural disaster in the area that became lost to history because it was embedded in a much larger and important manmade event—in this case, the U.S. Civil War. The authors document the arrival of this storm both historically and meteorologically and anachronistically name it “Hurricane Amanda” in honor of the Union ship driven ashore by the hurricane. The hurricane revealed deficiencies and strengths in combat readiness by both sides. Meteorologically, the storm nearly achieved major hurricane status at landfall and its absence from modern databases of tropical cyclone activity is a useful reminder to users of important gaps in our knowledge of tropical cyclones even in the best-sampled storm basins.

scholarly journals Application of Airborne Passive Microwave Observations for Monitoring Inland Flooding Caused by Tropical Cyclones

2009 ◽  
Vol 26 (10) ◽  
pp. 2051-2070
Author(s):  
Courtney D. Buckley ◽  
Robbie E. Hood ◽  
Frank J. LaFontaine
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Field Experiments ◽  
Vegetation Indices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Unmanned Aircraft ◽  
Passive Microwave ◽  
Inland Flooding

Abstract Inland flooding from tropical cyclones is a significant factor in storm-related deaths in the United States and other countries, with the majority of tropical cyclone fatalities recorded in the United States resulting from freshwater flooding. Information collected during National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) tropical cyclone field experiments suggests that surface water and flooding can be detected and therefore monitored at a greater spatial resolution by using passive microwave airborne radiometers than by using satellite sensors. The 10.7-GHz frequency of the NASA Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR) has demonstrated high-resolution detection of anomalous surface water and flooding in numerous situations. In this study, an analysis of three cases is conducted utilizing satellite and airborne radiometer data. Data from the 1998 Third Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-3) are utilized to detect surface water during the landfalling Hurricane Georges in both the Dominican Republic and Louisiana. Another case studied was the landfalling Tropical Storm Gert in eastern Mexico during the Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP) experiment in 2005. AMPR data are compared to topographic data and vegetation indices to evaluate the significance of the surface water signature visible in the 10.7-GHz information. The results illustrate the AMPR’s utility in monitoring surface water that current satellite-based passive microwave radiometers are unable to monitor because of their coarser resolutions. This suggests the benefit of a radiometer with observing frequencies less than 11 GHz deployed on a manned aircraft or unmanned aircraft system to provide early detection in real time of expanding surface water or flooding conditions.

COMPARISON OF OIL SPILL RATES IN DIFFERENT REGIONS OF THE UNITED STATES

1997 ◽  
Vol 1997 (1) ◽  
pp. 947-949
Author(s):  
Gary Yoshioka ◽  
Brad Kaiman ◽  
Eva Wong
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Oil Spill ◽  
Coastal Area ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Oil Spills ◽  
Gulf Coast ◽  
The United States ◽  
Movement Data ◽  
Exposure Variable ◽  
Over Time

ABSTRACT Recent studies of oil spills of more than 10,000 gallons examined spill rates in certain East Coast and Gulf Coast regions of the United States. Using oil movement data as the exposure variable, these studies found similar spill rates among the regions and over time. This analysis expands upon these earlier studies by examining the California coastal area and by calculating new spill rates using refining capacity as the exposure variable.

scholarly journals Spatial Characterization of Flood Magnitudes over the Drainage Network of the Delaware River Basin

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 957-976 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ping Lu ◽  
James A. Smith ◽  
Ning Lin
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Drainage Network ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Delaware River ◽  
Flood Peak ◽  
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Flood Index

Abstract A framework to characterize the distribution of flood magnitudes over large river networks is developed using the Delaware River basin in the northeastern United States as a principal study region. Flood magnitudes are characterized by the flood index, which is defined as the ratio of the flood peak for a flood event to the historical 10-yr flood magnitude. Event flood peaks are computed continuously over the drainage network using a distributed hydrologic model, CUENCAS, with high-resolution radar rainfall fields as the principal forcing. The historical 10-yr flood is calculated based on scaling relationships between the 10-yr flood and drainage area. Summary statistics for characterizing the probability distribution and spatial correlation of flood magnitudes over the drainage network are developed based on the flood index. This framework is applied to four flood events in the Delaware River basin that reflect the principal flood-generating mechanisms in the eastern United States: landfalling tropical cyclones (Hurricane Ivan in September 2004 and Hurricane Irene in August 2011), late winter/early spring extratropical systems (April 2005), and warm season convective systems (June 2006). The framework can be utilized to characterize the spatial distribution of floods, most notably for floods caused by landfalling tropical cyclones, which play an important role in controlling the upper tail of flood peak magnitudes over much of the eastern United States.

A Parameter for Forecasting Tornadoes Associated with Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

2014 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 1238-1255 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew J. Onderlinde ◽  
Henry E. Fuelberg
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Stepwise Regression ◽  
Atlantic Coast ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Environmental Parameters ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Center Time

Abstract The authors develop a statistical guidance product, the tropical cyclone tornado parameter (TCTP), for forecasting the probability of one or more tornadoes during a 6-h period that are associated with landfalling tropical cyclones affecting the coastal Gulf of Mexico and the southern Atlantic coast. TCTP is designed to aid forecasters in a time-limited environment. TCTP provides a “quick look” at regions where forecasters can then conduct detailed analyses. The pool of potential predictors included tornado reports and tropical cyclone data between 2000 and 2008, as well as storm environmental parameters. The original pool of 28 potential predictors is reduced to six using stepwise regression and logistic regression. These six predictors are 0–3-km wind shear, 0–3-km storm relative helicity, azimuth angle of the tornado report from the tropical cyclone, distance from the cyclone’s center, time of day, and 950–1000-hPa convective available potential energy. Mean Brier scores and Brier skill scores are computed for the entire TCTP-dependent dataset and for corresponding forecasts produced by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). TCTP then is applied to four individual cyclone cases to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the parameter and compare its performance with SPC forecasts. Results show that TCTP has skill at identifying regions of tornado potential. However, tornadoes in some tropical systems are overpredicted, but underpredicted in others. TCTP 6-h forecast periods provide slightly poorer statistical performance than the 1-day tornado probability forecasts from SPC, probably because the SPC product includes forecaster guidance and because their forecasts are valid for longer periods (24 h).

scholarly journals An Extended Model for the Potential Intensity of Tropical Cyclones

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (2) ◽  
pp. 641-661 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Frisius ◽  
Daria Schönemann
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Convective Instability ◽  
Cloud Model ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Extended Model ◽  
Flow Imbalance ◽  
Conditional Instability

Abstract Emanuel’s theory of hurricane potential intensity (E-PI) makes use of the assumption that slantwise convective instability vanishes in a steady-state vortex of a tropical cyclone. In the framework of an extended mathematical potential intensity model it is shown that relaxing this assumption and including an eye results in a larger maximum wind speed compared to that of the predictions made by E-PI. Previous studies by Bryan and Rotunno demonstrate that the effect of unbalanced flow considerably contributes to maximum winds in excess of E-PI (“superintensity”). The authors argue that the proposed mechanism induced by convective instability provides another possible explanation for simulated and observed tropical cyclones exceeding E-PI in addition to flow imbalance. Further evidence for the relevance of conditional instability in mature tropical cyclones to superintensity is given by the fact that convective available potential energy arises in numerical simulations of tropical cyclones. This is demonstrated by means of an axisymmetric cloud model that is in qualitative agreement with the analytical model. These simulations reveal a dependence of superintensity on the amount of CAPE outside the eyewall and also reproduce the decrease in superintensity with increased horizontal diffusion as found in previous studies.

scholarly journals On the Decay of Tropical Cyclone Winds Crossing Narrow Landmasses

2006 ◽  
Vol 45 (3) ◽  
pp. 491-499 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark DeMaria ◽  
John A. Knaff ◽  
John Kaplan
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Total Sample ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Modified Model ◽  
Decay Model ◽  
Prediction Scheme ◽  
Fixed Radius ◽  
The Mean

Abstract A method is developed to adjust the Kaplan and DeMaria tropical cyclone inland wind decay model for storms that move over narrow landmasses. The basic assumption that the wind speed decay rate after landfall is proportional to the wind speed is modified to include a factor equal to the fraction of the storm circulation that is over land. The storm circulation is defined as a circular area with a fixed radius. Application of the modified model to Atlantic Ocean cases from 1967 to 2003 showed that a circulation radius of 110 km minimizes the bias in the total sample of landfalling cases and reduces the mean absolute error of the predicted maximum winds by about 12%. This radius is about 2 times the radius of maximum wind of a typical Atlantic tropical cyclone. The modified decay model was applied to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS), which uses the Kaplan and DeMaria decay model to adjust the intensity for the portion of the predicted track that is over land. The modified decay model reduced the intensity forecast errors by up to 8% relative to the original decay model for cases from 2001 to 2004 in which the storm was within 500 km from land.

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