scholarly journals Unsupervised Machine Learning of Topics Documented by Nurses about Hospitalized Patients Prior to a Rapid-Response Event

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (05) ◽  
pp. 952-963 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zfania Tom Korach ◽  
Kenrick D. Cato ◽  
Sarah A. Collins ◽  
Min Jeoung Kang ◽  
Christopher Knaplund ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Protective Factors ◽  
Vital Signs ◽  
Rapid Response ◽  
Free Text ◽  
Snomed Ct ◽  
Unsupervised Machine Learning ◽  
Event Risk ◽  
Patients At Risk

Abstract Background In the hospital setting, it is crucial to identify patients at risk for deterioration before it fully develops, so providers can respond rapidly to reverse the deterioration. Rapid response (RR) activation criteria include a subjective component (“worried about the patient”) that is often documented in nurses' notes and is hard to capture and quantify, hindering active screening for deteriorating patients. Objectives We used unsupervised machine learning to automatically discover RR event risk/protective factors from unstructured nursing notes. Methods In this retrospective cohort study, we obtained nursing notes of hospitalized, nonintensive care unit patients, documented from 2015 through 2018 from Partners HealthCare databases. We applied topic modeling to those notes to reveal topics (clusters of associated words) documented by nurses. Two nursing experts named each topic with a representative Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine–Clinical Terms (SNOMED CT) concept. We used the concepts along with vital signs and demographics in a time-dependent covariates extended Cox model to identify risk/protective factors for RR event risk. Results From a total of 776,849 notes of 45,299 patients, we generated 95 stable topics, of which 80 were mapped to 72 distinct SNOMED CT concepts. Compared with a model containing only demographics and vital signs, the latent topics improved the model's predictive ability from a concordance index of 0.657 to 0.720. Thirty topics were found significantly associated with RR event risk at a 0.05 level, and 11 remained significant after Bonferroni correction of the significance level to 6.94E-04, including physical examination (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03–1.12), informing doctor (HR = 1.05, 95% CI, 1.03–1.08), and seizure precautions (HR = 1.08, 95% CI, 1.04–1.12). Conclusion Unsupervised machine learning methods can automatically reveal interpretable and informative signals from free-text and may support early identification of patients at risk for RR events.

Unsupervised Machine Learning of LGE Patterns on Cardiac MRI Identifies Patients at Risk for Right Ventricular Failure After LVAD

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (10) ◽  
pp. S146
Author(s):  
Julia M. Simkowski ◽  
Ramsey M. Wehbe ◽  
Jack Goergen ◽  
Allen S. Anderson ◽  
Kambiz Ghafourian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Right Ventricular ◽  
Cardiac Mri ◽  
Right Ventricular Failure ◽  
Ventricular Failure ◽  
Unsupervised Machine Learning ◽  
Patients At Risk

Predicting the risk of VISIT emergency department (ED) in lung cancer patients using machine learning.

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 2042-2042
Author(s):  
Pablo Rodriguez-Brazzarola ◽  
Nuria Ribelles ◽  
Jose Manuel Jerez ◽  
Jose Trigo ◽  
Manuel Cobo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Lung Cancer ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Cancer Patients ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Free Text ◽  
Adaptive Boosting ◽  
Cancer Symptoms ◽  
Lung Cancer Patients ◽  
Patients At Risk

2042 Background: Lung cancer patients commonly need unplanned visits to ED. Many of these visits could be potentially avoidable if it were possible to identify patients at risk when the previous scheduled visit takes place. At that moment, it would be possible to perform elective actions to manage patients at risk to consult the ED in the near future. Methods: Unplanned visits of patients in active cancer therapy (i.e. chemo or immunotherapy) are attended in our own ED facilities. Our Electronic Health Record (EHR) includes specific modules for first visit, scheduled visits and unplanned visits. Lung cancer patients with at least two visits were eligible. The event of interest was patient visit to ED within 21 or 28 days (d) from previous visit. Free text data collected in the three modules were obtained from EHR in order to generate a feature vector composed of the word frequencies for each visit. We evaluate five different machine learning algorithms to predict the event of interest. Area under the ROC curve (AUC), F1 (harmonic mean of precision and recall), True Positive Rate (TPR) and True Negative Rate (TNR) were assessed using 10-fold cross validation. Results: 2,682 lung cancer patients treated between March 2009 and October 2019 were included from which 819 patients were attended at ED. There were 2,237 first visits, 47,465 scheduled visits (per patient: range 1-174; median 12) and 2,125 unplanned visits (per patient: range 1-20; median 2). Mean age at diagnosis was 64 years. The majority of patients had late stage disease (34.24 % III, 51.56 % IV). The Adaptive Boosting Model yields the best results for both 21 d or 28 d prediction. Conclusions: Using unstructured data from real-world EHR enables the possibility to build an accurate predictive model of unplanned visit to an ED within the 21 or 28 following d after a scheduled visit. Such utility would be very useful in order to prevent ED visits related with cancer symptoms and to improve patients care. [Table: see text]

scholarly journals Using Predictive Modeling and Supervised Machine Learning to Identify Patients at Risk for Venous Thromboembolism Following Posterior Lumbar Fusion

2021 ◽  
pp. 219256822110193
Author(s):  
Kevin Y. Wang ◽  
Ijezie Ikwuezunma ◽  
Varun Puvanesarajah ◽  
Jacob Babu ◽  
Adam Margalit ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Venous Thromboembolism ◽  
Risk Stratification ◽  
Predictive Model ◽  
Predictive Modeling ◽  
Lumbar Fusion ◽  
Posterior Lumbar Fusion ◽  
Single Level ◽  
Patients At Risk

Study Design: Retrospective review. Objective: To use predictive modeling and machine learning to identify patients at risk for venous thromboembolism (VTE) following posterior lumbar fusion (PLF) for degenerative spinal pathology. Methods: Patients undergoing single-level PLF in the inpatient setting were identified in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database. Our outcome measure of VTE included all patients who experienced a pulmonary embolism and/or deep venous thrombosis within 30-days of surgery. Two different methodologies were used to identify VTE risk: 1) a novel predictive model derived from multivariable logistic regression of significant risk factors, and 2) a tree-based extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm using preoperative variables. The methods were compared against legacy risk-stratification measures: ASA and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) using area-under-the-curve (AUC) statistic. Results: 13, 500 patients who underwent single-level PLF met the study criteria. Of these, 0.95% had a VTE within 30-days of surgery. The 5 clinical variables found to be significant in the multivariable predictive model were: age > 65, obesity grade II or above, coronary artery disease, functional status, and prolonged operative time. The predictive model exhibited an AUC of 0.716, which was significantly higher than the AUCs of ASA and CCI (all, P < 0.001), and comparable to that of the XGBoost algorithm ( P > 0.05). Conclusion: Predictive analytics and machine learning can be leveraged to aid in identification of patients at risk of VTE following PLF. Surgeons and perioperative teams may find these tools useful to augment clinical decision making risk stratification tool.

scholarly journals Identifying those at risk of reattendance at discharge from emergency departments using explainable machine learning

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. P. Chmiel ◽  
M. Azor ◽  
F. Borca ◽  
M. J. Boniface ◽  
D. K. Burns ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Emergency Departments ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Care Indicator ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Single Centre Study ◽  
Patients At Risk

ABSTRACTShort-term reattendances to emergency departments are a key quality of care indicator. Identifying patients at increased risk of early reattendance can help reduce the number of patients with missed or undertreated illness or injury, and could support appropriate discharges with focused interventions. In this manuscript we present a retrospective, single-centre study where we create and evaluate a machine-learnt classifier trained to identify patients at risk of reattendance within 72 hours of discharge from an emergency department. On a patient hold-out test set, our highest performing classifier obtained an AUROC of 0.748 and an average precision of 0.250; demonstrating that machine-learning algorithms can be used to classify patients, with moderate performance, into low and high-risk groups for reattendance. In parallel to our predictive model we train an explanation model, capable of explaining predictions at an attendance level, which can be used to help inform the design of interventional strategies.

SCREENING OF PATIENTS AT RISK FOR WILD TYPE ATTR-CM USING A COMPUTATIONAL MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHM

2021 ◽  
Vol 37 (10) ◽  
pp. S65
Author(s):  
C Willis ◽  
K Kawamoto ◽  
A Watanabe ◽  
J Biskupiak ◽  
K Nolen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithm ◽  
Wild Type ◽  
Patients At Risk

scholarly journals MEWS++: Enhancing the Prediction of Clinical Deterioration in Admitted Patients through a Machine Learning Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 343 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arash Kia ◽  
Prem Timsina ◽  
Himanshu N. Joshi ◽  
Eyal Klang ◽  
Rohit R. Gupta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Clinical Deterioration ◽  
Early Warning Score ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Adult Age ◽  
Machine Learning Model ◽  
Patients At Risk

Early detection of patients at risk for clinical deterioration is crucial for timely intervention. Traditional detection systems rely on a limited set of variables and are unable to predict the time of decline. We describe a machine learning model called MEWS++ that enables the identification of patients at risk of escalation of care or death six hours prior to the event. A retrospective single-center cohort study was conducted from July 2011 to July 2017 of adult (age > 18) inpatients excluding psychiatric, parturient, and hospice patients. Three machine learning models were trained and tested: random forest (RF), linear support vector machine, and logistic regression. We compared the models’ performance to the traditional Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) using sensitivity, specificity, and Area Under the Curve for Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUC-ROC) and Precision-Recall curves (AUC-PR). The primary outcome was escalation of care from a floor bed to an intensive care or step-down unit, or death, within 6 h. A total of 96,645 patients with 157,984 hospital encounters and 244,343 bed movements were included. Overall rate of escalation or death was 3.4%. The RF model had the best performance with sensitivity 81.6%, specificity 75.5%, AUC-ROC of 0.85, and AUC-PR of 0.37. Compared to traditional MEWS, sensitivity increased 37%, specificity increased 11%, and AUC-ROC increased 14%. This study found that using machine learning and readily available clinical data, clinical deterioration or death can be predicted 6 h prior to the event. The model we developed can warn of patient deterioration hours before the event, thus helping make timely clinical decisions.

Development and Evaluation of a Machine Learning Model for the Early Identification of Patients at Risk for Sepsis

2019 ◽  
Vol 73 (4) ◽  
pp. 334-344 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan J. Delahanty ◽  
JoAnn Alvarez ◽  
Lisa M. Flynn ◽  
Robert L. Sherwin ◽  
Spencer S. Jones
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Early Identification ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Machine Learning Model ◽  
Patients At Risk

Can Machine Learning Help Identify Patients at Risk for Recurrent Sexually Transmitted Infections?

2020 ◽  
Vol Publish Ahead of Print ◽  
Author(s):  
Heather R. Elder ◽  
Susan Gruber ◽  
Sarah J. Willis ◽  
Noelle Cocoros ◽  
Myfanwy Callahan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Sexually Transmitted Infections ◽  
Sexually Transmitted ◽  
Patients At Risk

scholarly journals Machine Learning Applied to Electronic Health Records: Identification of Chemotherapy Patients at High Risk for Preventable Emergency Department Visits and Hospital Admissions

2021 ◽  
pp. 1106-1126
Author(s):  
Dylan J. Peterson ◽  
Nicolai P. Ostberg ◽  
Douglas W. Blayney ◽  
James D. Brooks ◽  
Tina Hernandez-Boussard
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Emergency Department ◽  
Emergency Department Visits ◽  
Test Model ◽  
Receiver Operator Curve ◽  
Patients At Risk ◽  
Electronic Health ◽  
Chemotherapy Patients ◽  
Operator Curve

PURPOSE Acute care use (ACU) is a major driver of oncologic costs and is penalized by a Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services quality measure, OP-35. Targeted interventions reduce preventable ACU; however, identifying which patients might benefit remains challenging. Prior predictive models have made use of a limited subset of the data in the electronic health record (EHR). We aimed to predict risk of preventable ACU after starting chemotherapy using machine learning (ML) algorithms trained on comprehensive EHR data. METHODS Chemotherapy patients treated at an academic institution and affiliated community care sites between January 2013 and July 2019 who met inclusion criteria for OP-35 were identified. Preventable ACU was defined using OP-35 criteria. Structured EHR data generated before chemotherapy treatment were obtained. ML models were trained to predict risk for ACU after starting chemotherapy using 80% of the cohort. The remaining 20% were used to test model performance by the area under the receiver operator curve. RESULTS Eight thousand four hundred thirty-nine patients were included, of whom 35% had preventable ACU within 180 days of starting chemotherapy. Our primary model classified patients at risk for preventable ACU with an area under the receiver operator curve of 0.783 (95% CI, 0.761 to 0.806). Performance was better for identifying admissions than emergency department visits. Key variables included prior hospitalizations, cancer stage, race, laboratory values, and a diagnosis of depression. Analyses showed limited benefit from including patient-reported outcome data and indicated inequities in outcomes and risk modeling for Black and Medicaid patients. CONCLUSION Dense EHR data can identify patients at risk for ACU using ML with promising accuracy. These models have potential to improve cancer care outcomes, patient experience, and costs by allowing for targeted, preventative interventions.

scholarly journals EP11 Using machine learning to recover unrecorded prehospital data

2021 ◽  
Vol 38 (9) ◽  
pp. A5.3-A6
Author(s):  
Thilo Reich ◽  
Adam Bancroft ◽  
Marcin Budka
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Vital Signs ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Free Text ◽  
Patient Records ◽  
Electronic Patient Records ◽  
Minority Class ◽  
South Central ◽  
Tree Classifier

BackgroundThe recording practices, of electronic patient records for ambulance crews, are continuously developing. South Central Ambulance Service (SCAS) adapted the common AVPU-scale (Alert, Voice, Pain, Unresponsive) in 2019 to include an option for ‘New Confusion’. Progressing to this new AVCPU-scale made comparisons with older data impossible. We demonstrate a method to retrospectively classify patients into the alertness levels most influenced by this update.MethodsSCAS provided ~1.6 million Electronic Patient Records, including vital signs, demographics, and presenting complaint free-text, these were split into training, validation, and testing datasets (80%, 10%, 10% respectively), and under sampled to the minority class. These data were used to train and validate predictions of the classes most affected by the modification of the scale (Alert, New Confusion, Voice).A transfer-learning natural language processing (NLP) classifier was used, using a language model described by Smerity et al. (2017) to classify the presenting complaint free-text.A second approach used vital signs, demographics, conveyance, and assessments (30 metrics) for classification. Categorical data were binary encoded and continuous variables were normalised. 20 machine learning algorithms were empirically tested and the best 3 combined into a voting ensemble combining three vital-sign based algorithms (Random Forest, Extra Tree Classifier, Decision Tree) with the NLP classifier using a Random Forest output layer.ResultsThe ensemble method resulted in a weighted F1 of 0.78 for the test set. The sensitivities/specificities for each of the classes are: 84%/ 90% (Alert), 73%/ 89% (Newly Confused) and 68%/ 93% (Voice).ConclusionsThe ensemble combining free text and vital signs resulted in high sensitivity and specificity when reclassifying the alertness levels of prehospital patients. This study demonstrates the capabilities of machine learning classifiers to recover missing data, allowing the comparison of data collected with different recording standards.

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